10 Post-All-Star Game Trends That Need Explaining
Every team & player fits into two categories post All-Star break. Those two categories are trending up or down. Let’s review those trends.
The post-All-Star break portion of any given season is crazy. 70% of the league is in do-or-die mode to make the postseason. Every game means something. The All-Star break reset allows players to either ramp things up or down. It’s essentially a second season, a chance to redeem yourself. Trends are all over the place.
Today, I want to review ten trends that need some explaining.
Brandon Ingram’s Mini Explosion
The New Orleans Pelicans have been quietly excellent since the All-Star Break. Brandon Ingram, the former All-Star, has been doing the same. Since joining New Orleans, Ingram has played the best basketball of his career.
Zion will always overshadow him. But, that may be hard to do with Ingram putting up these numbers;
27.6 points / 6.1 rebounds / 6.8 assists / 65% TS / +92 plus/minus
Not to be pessimistic, but Ingram has only played in 8 games. He just returned from a nagging hamstring injury. Still, this explosion from BI has led me to believe that he’s not done developing. That he’s got more room to grow. Just not physically, at least.
Improved Playmaking
Brandon Ingram has never been a playmaker. That’s why him averaging seven assists since the break is shocking. Yes, the sample size is minuscule, but it’s worth mentioning. Is it any surprise that he’s averaging a career-best 5.6 assists per game this season?
He’s had a 2.25 ast:to ratio since the All-Star break. Maybe we’re seeing Ingram become more of a team-oriented player? Just maybe?
All Hail The Pull-Up Jumper
This is more familiar territory for Ingram. The jump-shooting wing can be lethal from the perimeter when he gets things going. Since the All-Star break, Ingram has gone nuclear when he pulls up. This table sums things up well;
| Ingram’s Pullups Pre-All-Star-Break | Ingram’s Pullups Post-All-Star-Break |
| 6.6 pts | 10.9 points |
| 41.3% FG | 62.3% FG |
| 22.5% 3-PT | 25% 3-PT |
| 42.6% eFG% | 63% eFG% |
The most impressive thing about Ingram’s explosion is that he isn’t hitting more threes. He’s not exactly setting the world on fire from deep. His mid-range jumpers have been falling with much more consistency.
Smooooooooooth
Chicago’s Implosion
The Chicago Bulls were 39-21 on February 25th, sitting atop the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. DeMar DeRozan was looking like the best scorer in the league. The city of Chicago was alive. The atmosphere was electric, and all signs pointed to a deep postseason run.
Since that peak, Chicago has won just five games in the past month. Their injuries have finally caught up to them. A once-solid defensive unit has fallen off a cliff. Winning a playoff series seems unlikely for this squad. This stretch of play has revealed how vulnerable this team is for the future.
For starters, Zach Lavine is an impending free agent this summer. He wants big money, but will he stay in Chicago? If he wants to win a title, there are better options than the Windy City.
Nikola Vucevic has already heavily regressed, and there are no signs of stoppage. The Bulls paid a premium to get him, and it’s already looking like a mistake. Now, would DeRozan have come to Chicago if Vucevic weren’t there? Probably not. Still, Chicago needs better options than him down low. His rim protection skills aren’t good enough to win a title.
Without an abundance of picks and -$23 million in cap space, it’s hard for this team to make any major moves. Think of Chicago like the stock market. They had a rapid escalation, inflating their value. Then came the crash. And just like the stock market in 2008, the Bulls are bad.
New York’s New Nipper’s
No, I’m not talking about young lifeguards. I’m talking about the Knicks’ young players and their newfound roles. Even a late-season surge can’t help the Knicks make the postseason. Their free agency spending frenzy was for nothing. The Knicks are primed for another rebuild just one season after making a surprise postseason run.
The lone bright spot for the Knicks has been their youngsters’ increased roles. With the games devoid of meaning, New York is finally biting the bullet and looking ahead to 2023.
- Obi Toppin: 23.3 MPG over the last six games
- Duece McBride: 13.3 MPG over the last 13 games
- Immanuel Quickley: 26.3 MPG over the last 17 games
- Jericho Sims: 16.4 MPG over the last 18 games
The player I want to talk about most is Miles “Duece” McBride. Last season, I thought he was a sure-fire first-rounder. Instead, the West Virginia product went in the second round. I’ve been waiting for him to play some real minutes, and he’s now getting that chance. He’s already shown why he should have been playing earlier in the season.
Great Perimeter Defense + On-Court Value
- 17 minutes – 33% FG – +16 plus/minus
- 20 minutes – 1 FGA – +11 plus/minus
- 18 minutes – 33% FG – +27 plus/minus
While McBride isn’t a scoring threat, his presence on the floor is valuable. His tenacious defense is an upgrade over Fournier and Burks. Just look at this play against the Hornets from a few nights ago;
As much as I would love McBride to shoot as he did in college, this level of effectiveness off the bench is valuable. Tom Thibodeau loves his defense, and McBride provides that. Playing time should come with consistency to end the season. The hope is that this role will still be there for him in 2023.
Darius Garland’s Unmatched Clutchness
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been struggling as of late. An injury to rookie of the year frontrunner Evan Mobley has punctuated a 7-12 record since the All-Star break. Their lack of talent is finally showing itself as the playoffs approach.
One thing that has remained constant for this team is the play of All-Star point guard Darius Garland. Garland’s career year hasn’t slowed down while the team around him has. And when the going gets tough, you want Darius Garland on your side.
Since the All-Star Break, he’s done this in the closing minutes of close games;
- 6-4 record
- 36 points (6th in the NBA)
- 61% FG
- 100% 3-PT
- 10/12 FT
- +23 plus/minus (T-10th in the NBA)
Before the break, Garland had been shooting just 29% from the field in clutch games. So, yeah, it’s safe to say he’s found his groove in close games. Unfortunately for Garland, the Cavs have fallen into the play-in and will need his clutch play to get into the playoffs.
With the way he’s been playing, the numbers suggest he’ll be ready.
Cam Johnson’s Anthesis
In 2019, the Phoenix Suns needed a point guard. So what did they do? They traded down and drafted a wing player who wasn’t supposed to go anywhere near #11. We all laughed at the time. Our reaction was the same as Coby White’s, only much harsher.
Not only did Johnson prove us wrong by becoming an excellent 3&D wing off the bench, he’s ready for more. His post-All-Star-break explosion was out of left field. Nobody saw it coming. When the Suns needed scoring, it came from Johnson. Not Bridges. Not Ayton. Johnson.
| Cam Johnson Pre-All-Star-Break | Cam Johnson Post-All-Star-Break |
| 11.9 points | 19.7 points |
| 46% FG | 56% FG |
| 43% 3-PT (5.7 3-PTA) | 55% 3-PT (7.3 3-PTA)** |
| Geyser | Volcano |
Like Brandon Ingram, Johnson’s explosion hasn’t come with a large sample size. A quad injury held him out for nearly a month. Rekindling that volcanic explosion won’t be easy, but that’s not the point.
Johnson is one of the best young wings in the NBA. The Suns don’t have all the shots in the world or the minutes for Johnson to take. Johnson could become an RFA next summer, and it will be interesting to see where he goes.
Joel Embiid Has Forgotten How To Shoot
I don’t mean to be overly dramatic, but that headline isn’t clickbait. Believe it or not, there is some truth to what I just said. And I know what you’re thinking. How can Joel Embiid, an MVP candidate, forget how to shoot? That doesn’t make sense! Well, it does. Here’s how.
Since the 2020 season, Joel Embiid has become one of the best mid-range shooters in the league. It’s his weapon of choice nowadays. Over the past two seasons, Embiid has made nearly 300 mid-rangers. A friendly reminder to all that he’s a center.
Since the break, Embiid hasn’t been as dominant. A lot of that has to do with his regression on pull-up jump shots;
| Embiid Pre-All-Star-Break | Embiid Post-All-Star-Break |
| 7.2 Pull-up points | 4.7 Pull-up points |
| 43.5% FG | 32.8% FG |
| 37% 3-PT | 22% 3-PT |
Is James Harden to blame for this regression? Possibly, but I don’t think it’s his value Embiid is scoring nearly 35% fewer points from pull-up jumpers. Let’s go to the tape.
Playing In A Crowd Is Hard
Now, 76ers fans can tell me if I’m wrong, but Joel Embiid is no longer seeing single-coverage. Most teams have realized that he’s impossible to guard one-on-one. Sending second and even third defenders are needed to throw him off his game. The Bucks used this gameplan against Embiid a few nights ago;
Joel Embiid draws 14.8 double-teams per game, according to NBA CourtOptix. To my knowledge, that number has increased since the All-Star-break. Embiid is too good in one-on-one situations. Now, he’s going to have to adjust.
Expect more of this defense in the postseason, where opposing teams dare any other sixer to shoot the ball. That includes James Harden.
The Mavericks Don’t Like To Share
This is perhaps the most shocking thing I’ve found while researching for this blog. Despite having Doncic, Brunson, and Dinwiddie, the Mavericks don’t like to share? Huh?
Well, it’s true. Dallas is last in assists since the All-Star break, averaging just 21.3 of them. They’re in the bottom 10 of passes made, as well. The thing that confuses me is how this is even possible. How does the slowest-paced team in the NBA not average more passes?
Slower-paced teams spend more time on offense. That should lead to more passes, right? That’s not true about this Mavericks team. And there’s a reason for that.
The Dallas Mavericks dribble the air out of the ball on offense. Since the All-Star break, they’re leading the league in possessions where one player takes more than seven dribbles. Luka Doncic, their leader, is the poster boy for this style of play.
52.4% of his touches are ones in which he dribbles more than seven times! What’s crazier is that he’s shooting 52% from the field and 43% from distance when he does this. Because why the hell not?
The Dallas Mavericks don’t pass as much as I think they would. It’s because they’re giving the ball to Luka more. And that’s pretty ok in my book.
Jalen Green is Anthony Edwards 2.0
*Note: This is not a comparison of the two players, simply how their rookie seasons have mirrored each other.*
When you think about it, Jalen Green and Anthony Edwards couldn’t be more different. Green is slender and feeble. Edwards is powerful and bullish. Green’s Rockets are one of the worst teams in the league. Edward is likely to be headed to the postseason in just his second season.
But, their rookie seasons are eerily similar. Seasons that started off slow, but ended with bangs. Don’t believe me?
| Green Pre-Break (2022) | Edwards Pre-Break (2021) | Green Post-Break (2022) | Edwards Post-Break (2022) |
| 14.6 points | 14.9 points | 21.0 points | 23.8 points |
| 39% FG | 37% FG | 46% FG | 45% FG |
| 31% 3-PT | 30% 3-PT | 39% 3-PT | 35% 3-PT |
Nikola Jokic is a Fantasy God
| Player | FP Since The Break |
| Nikola Jokic | 1162.0 |
| Joel Embiid | 1015.4 |
| Luka Doncic | 904.8 |
| Trae Young | 874.3 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 852.8 |
This is the most useless trend I’ve talked about in this blog. By a mile. But, in case you needed a reminder of just how much Nikola Jokic does for the Nuggets, here you go.
Jokic is far and away having to do the most on both ends for the Nuggets. That’s why, to me, he needs to win MVP. We’ve got to stop beating around the bush with this guy.
Also, thanks for carrying my team to the fantasy basketball championships!
Da Scoring Boom
Hold onto your hats, everybody. And get ready for a lot of scoring. Since the All-Star break, there has been more scoring than even Wilt Chamberlain could handle. Offensive numbers were down to start the season. Many assumed it was a combination of a new ball and rule changes.
But, it’s clear that some teams have found their grooves since that point.
| Pre-All-Star Break | Post-All-Star-Break |
| 0 teams averaging 115+ ppg | 12 teams averaging 115+ ppg |
| 0 teams averaging 120+ ppg | 2 teams averaging 120+ ppg |
| 0 teams shooting 49%+ from the field | 5 teams shooting 49%+ from the field |
| 6 teams with 100+ pace | 11 teams with 11+ pace |
The offensive boom of the second half of the season has been unreal. It’s like watching the 2021 season all over again, where we had offensive records being set all over the place. I thought it would take longer than a few months for these monster numbers to return.
Instead, offense is back, and in a big way. Yay?
What Are Your Thoughts On These Trends? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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