6 Players I Expect To Succeed/Fail Next Season
Alright, here we are. My first article regarding the 2021-22 season. To be completely honest with you, I am tired of the summer league and there is nothing else going on, so here we go. Today I will be going over some players I expect to breakout/fail next season.
In terms of a player “succeeding,” this can mean a lot of things. For me, it really depends on their situation. All of the players on this list are certainly talented, but some of them just aren’t in the right situations to succeed. But some players have either switched teams or they just have a much better opportunity to succeed. I probably explained this poorly, so you’ll see what I mean.
Now, I don’t want any player to fail. I’m not that pessimistic. But I do think that there are some players just not set up for success in their current situations. Again, I am not that evil. I don’t want people to fail with the exception of one coach who shall not be named (wink-wink Terry Stotts).
Devonte’ Graham – Fail
Again, I’m really not pessimistic. I think Devonte’ Graham was good…for one season, where there were no expectations for him.
But spoiler alert, playing with Zion Williamson, a generational superstar, means that there will be a lot of expectations. And to be quite honest, Graham is a downgrade from Lonzo Ball. Sure he can shoot and pass well, but he’s nowhere near the defender and he cannot shoot at the rim to save his life. He just doesn’t fit with Zion as well (on paper) as Lonzo did. I could be really wrong about that, but I do think that it’s true, unless I’m missing something.
Let’s start with the offense and we’ll be going off of his 2019-20 season, when Graham actually got playing time. He averaged 18 points and 8 assists per game. You would think that is good, right? Not exactly. The underlying numbers really show that Graham just got a high volume of minutes and shots to do whatever he pleased.
He shot just 38% from the field in 2020 and only 40% from 2-PT range. He was a pretty good volume 3-PT shooter (37% on 9.3 attempts per game), but he just couldn’t score anywhere else efficiently. From 3-10 feet from the basket that year, he shot just 27%. To be fair, he didn’t shoot many shots from there, but point guards should be able to shoot well from that range.
So offensively, he’s a pretty good shooter and passer, but he can’t score efficiently anywhere inside the arc. He is a smaller guard, so scoring at the rim is harder for him. With the strides Lonzo had made as a shooter, I do give the edge to Lonzo Ball in terms of an offensive player.
Then there’s the defense, which is essentially nonexistent. Lonzo was a pretty good defender and had been for his whole career. Can’t exactly say the same about Graham. Graham’s defensive rating has hung around 115 while Lonzo Ball’s has been around 110. So definitely a defensive downgrade, not to mention his lack of size.
So not only was Graham a downgrade, the Pelicans gave him a 4yr/$47.3 million dollar deal. It’s not the worst, but I really don’t like his fit (on paper) with the Pelicans and I think they’re really going to regret giving up Lonzo Ball for basically nothing. His offense is at least decent, but I think Lonzo is miles better than Graham overall and I don’t see him as the long-term answer in New Orleans.
Again, I could be wrong, but I really didn’t like this move.
Miles Bridges and Kelly Oubre Jr. – Succeed
The Hornets had a very good offseason. They added some nice rookies like James Bouknight and Kai Jones. They also added some veterans like Kelly Oubre Jr. and Mason Plumlee, giving them a really nice mix of youth and veteran talent. They are on the rise and I think that their wing duo of Oubre and Bridges is set up for really good seasons, respectively.
Let’s start Miles Bridges. Brides has steadily improved in each of his 3 seasons in the league. But he was really, really good in 2021;
12.7 points per game – 6.0 rebounds per game – 50% shooting – 40% 3-PT shooting
Bridges went from a 52% TS in 2018-19 to a 62.5% TS in 2019-20. He had the best shooting year of his career and he really improved. He became a really good shooter and was now more than just a freakish athlete that would garner great play-by-play calls from Eric Collins (aka the goat).
I think that Bridges fits so well with Lamelo Ball and I think off the bench, as a spark plug? He could be really, really good. An interesting note is that Bridges averaged nearly 19 points per game as a starter. I know he’s probably going to come off the bench, but if a spot does open up, perhaps Bridges gets that role.
But Bridges shouldn’t be the only one who should do well next season for the Hornets. I have a hunch that new free agent signing Kelly Oubre Jr. will also be good. While Warriors fans might despise him, he’s still a pretty good player. He struggled shooting last year (that’s an understatement), but he was very successful with the Phoenix Suns in 2020 as a two-way scorer. He could be another really solid piece for the Hornets off the bench.
I think it’s safe to say last year was a down year for Oubre. Maybe it was Covid or maybe he just played worse. Whatever is was, he was much worse from his career 2020 season with the Suns. Here is everything that decreased from 2020 to 2021;
points per game, rebounds per game, FT%, FG%, 3-PT%, A LOT
Oubre was pretty, pretty bad in 2021. His scoring just went away. He went from a good 3-PT shooter to a below average one and he became a pretty inefficient player overall. He also shot less than 70% from the free throw line. His TS% went from 56% in 2020 to 53% in 2021. He was not good, as all Warriors fans will attest to.
But I really think he can make a difference for the Hornets. Here are a few reasons why;
- Not a main scoring option (Rozier, Hayward, Bouknight, Bridges, Ball)
- No real pressure – aka nobody cares about you 🙁
Yeah, those two reasons sum things up well. Oubre has about 4-5 other guys who are ahead of him scoring wise. Guys like Rozier, Hayward, and Ball will have the ball much more than him and the Hornets have a deep rotation. If they didn’t have Oubre, they would still be a really good team.
So that’s why Oubre doesn’t have to do as much as he did in Golden State, which is good for him. He can focus more on defense and being a spot-up shooter who can create sometimes. He gets to play with another great playmaker in Lamelo Ball, so he won’t find it hard to get the ball. I really find it hard to believe that Oubre is going to be bad again this upcoming season.
I think that Bridges will continue his success and Oubre will have a great bounce back year. The Hornets are in a great situation and on the rise in the East. Playing with Lamelo automatically makes life easier for anybody and both of these guys are talented, so I really do think both of them are in a great position to succeed on a Charlotte team ready to take that next step in the Eastern Conference.
I really hope I don’t jinx these two or Charlotte. Sorry in advance MJ.
Dennis Schroder – Succeed
I know, I know, let’s get all of our laughs out of the way. Dennis Schroder turned down a $84 million dollar extension midway through the season with the Lakers. He wanted a max contract of $120-125 million in free agency. Let’s just say that didn’t happen as nobody signed him, forcing him to sign a 1yr/$5.9 million dollar deal with the Celtics. It’s pretty funny but I do think that Schroder can succeed in Boston.
First, let’s start with expectations. If you sign a $84 million dollar extension, there will of course be expectations. If Schroder had gotten that max contract in free agency, there would have been big expectations for him. But when he’s signing this deal? For less than $6 million dollars? Nobody is expecting much from Schroder and that’s when he’s at his best.
He struggled under the spotlight in LA and now, I don’t think people are exactly expecting big things from Dennis Schroder anymore. Not really any pressure, only the pressure to play well enough to get a long-term deal. Less pressure could help Schroder a lot in playing better.
Another thing is that there is a possibility where he’s not starting. There was a report that there wasn’t an expectation that Schroder was starting, which is fine. He was excellent in his two years with the OKC Thunder, from 2018-2020 when he was just coming off the bench. In 2020, he was the runner up for 6th man of the year. He has a very good track record when coming off the bench.
I really don’t think Schroder is a starter in the NBA. He’s a decent passer at best but he’s at his best when he’s a scorer. He hasn’t been great as a starter in Atlanta or with the Lakers, he’s had his most success as a pure scorer off the bench. He’s a scorer at heart and using him as such maximizes what he brings to the table. I’m glad that Boston might be using him off the bench.
The Celtics need the scoring after losing Fournier and Walker and Schroder is likely going to be their 6th man off the bench and their 3rd scoring option. There’s no real pressure on him, he has the motivation to play well and get a big contract after this season, this could all work out really well for Boston, who is looking to rebound after a tumultuous season last year.
Davion Mitchell – Fail
Davion Mitchell is a really, really, really, really, good rookie. Me saying really 4 times should tell you all you need to know about the 9th overall pick from the 2021 NBA Draft. He is an excellent defender and shooter, he can really do it all. His defense will be incredibly valuable to a Kings team desperately needing defense, but he’s not set up for success.
For one, he’s playing on the Kings, one of the worst franchises in the NBA for more than a decade. It’s more than likely their 15 season playoff drought will continue this season in a loaded Western Conference. They haven’t won a playoff series since 2004, it’s been bad. Mitchell is a really good player, like I said, but the Kings aren’t exactly the best place for his skills.
Not only are the Kings bad, their head coach is an idiot. Luke Walton should be fired, I really don’t know what he brings to the table as a coach. The Kings were on the right track with Dave Joerger and they won 39 games in 2019. That .476 winning percentage was their highest since 2006, the last time they were in the playoffs.
With Luke Walton, they have won 43% of their games in 2020 and 2021, finishing with the same 41-31 record. They haven’t gotten better after showing promise in 2019 and I doubt they’re going to beat that .476 winning percentage. Davion isn’t exactly getting some sort of coaching guru, quite the opposite in fact.
Next is the fit. The Kings have so many guards that all deserve playing time. Shall we go over the list;
De’Aaron Fox: Best Player on the Team – 25ppg and 7apg last year
Tyrese Haliburton: Steal of the 2020 NBA Draft – great shooter and playmaker
Buddy Hield: One of the Best Shooters in the NBA – Made 831 3’s on 40% shooting over the past 3 seasons
Terence Davis: Young Scorer w/ promise – signed 2yr/$8 million dollar deal this offseason
Sure, Delon Wright left, but those are 4 good players who deserve minutes. So Mitchell won’t exactly be getting a long leash in his rookie season, there is competition for minutes and it’s hard to say who is getting how much. Usually rookies taken that high get free reign, but that’s unlikely to be true for Mitchell.
The one thing he has going for him is his perimeter defense, particularly on-ball, where he is simply brilliant. He showed flashes of it in the summer league and since the Kings need defense so badly after being one of the worst defenses of all-time last year, he’ll get playing time.
But going into a poorly run franchise with 4 other young, capable guards surely isn’t an ideal place for any rookie. Mitchell’s rookie year with have it’s rough patches for sure. There is no denying that he is going to be good, but he’s really being thrown to the wolves in his rookie reason.
Kristaps Porzingis – Fail
I really don’t think this is a surprise. Porzingis’s injuries have really slowed him down and he’s no longer the Mavericks 2nd option. He hardly made an impact in the playoffs where Dallas desperately needed somebody other than Luka to step up to try and help them win that series, which they eventually lost in 7 games. Porzingis isn’t reliable, he’s injury prone, and that big trade for him back in 2019 is looking worse and worse by the day.
Let’s start with the injuries. He injured his ACL during his All-Star 2017-18 campaign and didn’t play at all in 2018-19. He forced his way to Dallas but injuries have still slowed him down. Since joining the Mavericks, he has missed time with a knee injury, a heel injury, a back injury, a ankle injury, a wrist injury, you get the point here.
These injuries have caused him to become scared offensively. He doesn’t play in the post as much and just stands on the perimeter like he’s a 6’2″ guard instead of a 7’3″ unicorn, which is what he was in New York before his ACL tear. His defense went from being pretty good to him being a liability. Availability is the best ability and Porzingis just hasn’t been there, whether it be him missing time due to injuries or him just being useless.
To make things worse, there’s the contract. Here’s what he’s getting paid for the rest of the massive 5-year deal he signed in 2019.
2021-22: $31,650,600
2022-23: $33,833,400
2023-24: $36,016,200
There is a player option for the final year but it’s still pretty bad. He’s getting paid like a perennial All-Star, yet Mark Cuban and Dallas are paying him to miss games and not even be the 2nd best player on the team. Porzingis is unhappy with his role and I do think Tim Hardaway is going to be the 2nd option for the Mavericks this upcoming season. He’s just more reliable and Porzingis really hasn’t worked out for Dallas. It’s just the harsh truth and I think Porzingis has to either turn things around in a big way or he might have to get traded.
Porzingis isn’t as good as he once was, he has let Dallas down, and now both sides are re-evaluating their choices. To make things worse, Jason Kidd is the head coach. Kidd isn’t a good head coach and I think Dallas will be taking a step-back this year. They can’t rely on Porzingis and their coach is awful. What a way to waste Luka.
Kemba Walker – Succeed
Kemba Walker was one of the best scoring guards in the league with the Hornets. He went to Boston and while there was more playoff success, Walker’s knee’s let him down. He was hampered in the bubble and had he been healthy, who knows? Maybe the Celtics make it to the Finals instead of the Heat. Then this past season, he missed a lot of time with knee injuries and wasn’t the same player.
His contract was awful and Boston shipped him to OKC this offseason. But Walker has a chance for a career revival in New York. He’s back home playing for a team on the rise and he can really help the Knicks take the next step in the Eastern Conference.
Let’s talk about the contract. Walker’s massive contract was bought out by OKC, with them paying his old contract for the next two seasons. So Walker really doesn’t have to live up to his massive contract. He signed a modest, two year deal with the Knicks for $17 million.
He’s making less money than Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Derrick Rose. There isn’t an expectation for him to play like an All-Star. That falls upon Julius Randle. So I think that Walker can relax a little bit more. Sure, it’s New York, but nobody is expecting some sort of renaissance season, he just has to be above average. Expectations being significantly lower could help Walker.
Health is another thing. Half of the battle for Walker the past couple of seasons has been health. He just has to stay healthy and I think he’ll find it easier to find a rhythm and settle in. Especially because he’s with a new team, so making sure he’s on the floor as much as possible will help him gel with everybody a lot more.
I think that if Walker can remain healthy, he can give you 15-20 points a night. He is a very good offensive player and while he might have lost some of his burst, I still think he has a lot left in the tank. I think that he’s in the perfect situation and I think that he’s in a great position to succeed with a Knicks team on the rise.
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