Grizzlies Crumble, Boston Keeps Rolling In My Second Round Predictions
From the Suns surviving to the Celtics cruising on, here are my full predictions for every matchup in the second round.
Another shoutout to the NBA for giving me no break between the first and the second round. Love you guys. Anyway, I went 8-0 in my first-round predictions, so I’m going to try and do that again. From another Celtics series win to a Grizzlies collapse waiting to happen, here are all my thoughts on every second-round series.
#1 Miami Heat vs #4 Philadelphia 76ers
Both the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers cruised through their first-round matchups. However, unfortunately, injuries are going to headline this series. Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler are dealing with minor ailments.
The biggest story of the second round has to be the health of Joel Embiid. From his orbital fracture to his thumb injury, the all-world center is battered. And so are Philly’s title chances. Here are my thoughts on this series.
Miami Heat
The top-seeded Heat are perhaps under the spotlight for the first time this season. Despite a fantastic regular season that saw them hurdle a lot of injuries, they didn’t get talked about a lot. Now’s their chance to make themselves heard.
From their defense on James Harden to bench production, here’s what the Heat can do to win this series.
Defending James Harden
With Joel Embiid’s health up in the air, Miami’s defense now focuses on former MVP James Harden. I say ‘former’ in the literal and metaphorical sense. Not only is Harden not the player he was a few years ago, but I also don’t think he can carry Philly to win this series.
I think that because of how effective Miami was at shutting down Trae Young in the first round. Expect similar results against the Beard. Miami has so many versatile defenders to throw at Harden. Expect Jimmy Butler to start on him in game one, but they could rotate guys like Adebayo and even the smaller Lowry on him at times.
Now, Harden was effective at finding his open teammates against Toronto. That’s because Toronto had a poor game plan of helping too much off Harden, leaving shooters open. Miami (likely) won’t make the same mistake. They’ll play Harden straight-up because they like their odds, and they should.
Harden played the Heat just once this season when he was on the Nets. Take that appearance with a grain of salt, but Harden wasn’t exactly great;
14 points / 7 assists / 4 turnovers / 33% FG / -12 plus/minus
The Heat didn’t do anything special against Harden in this game. They didn’t double him or harass him as you’d expect. That sort of treatment is on the horizon, however, and I’m willing to bet it’s going to be pretty darn effective. You’re in for a long series, James.
Exposing Philly’s Bigs
The Miami Heat are not facing the ’86 Celtics, a team with Hall of Famer Bill Walton coming off the bench. Instead, they’re facing DeAndre Jordan and Paul Reed. You see where this is going.
While Reed is quick and athletic, he’s played just 550 minutes in his career. He’s also undersized at 6-9. Unless Doc Rivers plans on starting DeAndre Jordan in this series (bad idea), Reed will get a bulk of the center minutes.
Bam Adebayo should be able to score more than the 12 points per game he managed the Hawks. Miami has to attack whoever the 76ers have down low. Handoffs, pick-and-rolls, and movement have to be aplenty. The drop off from Embiid to anyone else is considerable.
If Miami can force Philly to play smaller, that favors them in this series. They should be salivating right now, thinking all of the ways they can torture Philly’s weakened frontline.
Stepping Up To The Plate
Miami’s bench is crucial to their success. I can’t stress that enough. To me, it’s the most important component of their team. This stat tells it all;
Miami Bench PPG In Wins (inc. postseason): 42.9 ppg
Miami Bench PPG In Losses (inc. postseason): 35.1 ppg
When Miami wins, you can always point to their reserves. In a series where Philly’s bench isn’t potent, winning this battle will be crucial. It will be up to these guys to give Miami minutes off the bench;
Tyler Herro
Duncan Robinson**
Gabe Vincent
Victor Oladipo**
DeWayne Dedmon
The two x-factors for Miami are Robinson and Oladipo. While Robinson is a defensive liability, he has the potential to go ballistic from the 3-PT line on any given night. But he was nonexistent in the first round after exploding in game one. More consistent production is needed from the $90 million dollar man.
Oladipo, as I discussed in yesterday’s post, has a chance to break into the rotation. He offers perimeter defense that nobody else on that bench does. His scoring is iffy at best, but he could help Miami’s second-unit get going.
Needless to say, bench production will be of the utmost importance to Miami’s success in this series.
Confidence
Miami and their superior culture should feel great about their chances in this series.
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers avoided another colossal choke in the first round. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they’re going to be without their best player for the foreseeable future, all but sinking their title efforts. So much for optimism, then.
Replacing Embiid’s Production On Both Ends
It feels stupid to even be writing this since I know Philly isn’t capable of doing this, but here we are. With Joel Embiid out for some time, the 76ers have to try and replace his production. The problem is, there may be too much of it;
30.6 points (led NBA)
11.7 rebounds
4.2 assists
2.6 stocks
11.8 FTA
9.2 BPM
2297 minutes of a top-5 offensive player!!!
That last one is perhaps the most important. Embiid turned in another magnificent offense season, cementing himself as the most dominant low post threat since Shaq. If all those superlatives weren’t a big enough hint, the 76ers can’t possibly replace this guy. That’s kind of the point of a superstar like Embiid. He’s irreplaceable.
Defensively, I’m not impressed by Paul Reed, Paul Millsap, or, god forbid, DeAndre Jordan. Going small with George Niang is the best idea as of right now. But Philly can really only do that when Miami decides to go small. Against Atlanta, PJ Tucker played just 27 minutes at center.
Maxey and Harris will get more shots, but the 76ers don’t have the depth to replace Embiid’s production. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime player for a reason. The only way the 76ers can win this series is if Embiid comes back, which he may not.
Trying To Stop Miami’s Offense
Without Embiid, trying to stop Miami’s offense becomes an unenviable task. But, there are ways for Philly to try and slow this well-balanced attack. Against Toronto, zone defense worked perfectly against a team with few perimeter threats.
But, in this series, Philly will have to play tightly against a Heat team that hit 38% of their 3-PT shots. That’s doable, although the likes of Danny Green and Tyrese Maxey will have their hands full running with all of Miami’s shooters.
An intriguing matchup will be that of Matisse Thybulle vs. Jimmy Butler. Thybulle is a physical defender, and Butler is a very physical player. But Butler isn’t someone who plays on the perimeter often. Thybulle is at his best when chasing guys around the perimeter. Will he be as effective as Butler, a downhill driver? Maybe.
Another component of Miami’s offense is speed, or lack thereof. Miami ranked 28th in pace during the regular season. But, they also ranked fourth in passes made (289.8). So, on a lot of possessions, Miami was forced to make shots late in the clock. And they were damn good at it.
| Shot Type : Shot Clock Range | Rank |
| 3-pointers with 7-4 seconds left | 1st (both in makes and %) |
| 3-pointers with 4-0 seconds left | 3rd in % |
Defending for the entirety of possessions will be key for Philly. Miami lives for those backbreaking threes late in the clock that kill teams. Eliminating those has to be a priority.
It’s All About Shooting
Speaking of shooting, this 76ers team isn’t that formidable at it. Sure, Philly shot 41% from downtown against the Raptors. But that was because a stunning 88% of their attempts were open. When a defender was closer than four feet to a Philly shooter, they didn’t shoot it.
Miami’s switch-heavy defense discourages drivers. The Heat ranked second in switch frequency during the regular season. So, getting to the basket is going to be hellish.
Miami also had the league’s best 3-PT defense, or did they? Earlier this year, I talked about the New York Knicks getting “unlucky” with their defense. Their defense didn’t get worse, but other teams were simply making more open shots against them.
Miami is a case of a team who got extremely lucky this season. They gave up the most 3-pointers considered “open” by nba.com (4-6 feet between the shooter and the closest defender). But, opposing teams shot just 27.6% on those open shots.
If Philly can take advantage of those shots that Miami gives up, they’ll be in good shape. That could soften Miami’s tough defense, making an Embiid-less offense seem more doable in a seven gamer.
Confidence
Without Joel Embiid, the 76ers can’t be too confident in their second round chances. Unless they start hitting 20 threes per game, my expectations for them are reserved.
The Prediction
This series would have been a bloodbath with a healthy Joel Embiid. While there’s a chance he returns later in this series, concussions/facial injuries are always tricky. Without masked Embiid, the Sixers’ chances are feeble. So;
Miami In Five
#2 Boston Celtics vs #3 Milwaukee Bucks
This is very likely to be the best second-round series of the four. The Celtics shocked the world with their sweep of the high-powered Nets. Milwaukee responded, winning their last three games against the Bulls easily to take the series in five.
Boston has arguably been the best team in the league since January. Milwaukee is trying to win their second straight title, but they’ll be without their second-best player in Khris Middleton, potentially for the entirety of this series.
If you like length, defense, and the color green, you’re in for a treat.
Boston Celtics
You’ve heard their story by now. It’s hard not to like this team. From the defense to the young stars and the hustle, this team has it all. I’ve never seen a team click as late into the season as this Celtics team, but hey! Whatever works.
From Giannis scheming possibilities to the Smart factor, here’s what Boston can do to win this season.
Guarding Giannis (or not?)
With Khris Middleton out of the picture, Giannis-stopping is the goal for the C’s. They have the prototypical length to slow down the 2x MVP. But, one has to wonder, is it worth it to sell out on Giannis?
While the Celtics have the personnel, building walls against Giannis is risky. For one, Milwaukee is capable of spamming Giannis pick-and-rolls, all but eliminating the idea of slowing down Giannis. Secondly, Milwaukee’s shooters will get more looks if Boston constantly collapses on the Greek Freak.
Shutting down everyone else and living with whatever Giannis gets is a strategy employed on fellow freak Nikola Jokic. But, while it works with the Joker, it may not work with Giannis.
The Bucks are 43-17 over the past five seasons when Giannis scores 35+ points. They’re also 6-2 in the playoffs when he reaches that 35-point mark. So, allowing Giannis to bully you inside doesn’t seem like a sound plan.
“Guarding Giannis” is no easy task. We’ll wait and see what Boston has in store for him in game one. For now, here are some tips and tricks for the Celtics;
- Foul him if necessary
- Get the fans ready to count a lot
- Show him bodies – dig down from the perimeter
- Pray
You’re welcome.
Play The Percentages
Milwaukee: Don’t go to the free-throw line or shoot in the restricted area!
Boston: Ok
Milwaukee’s defense wants you to go inside, not outside. That’s ok for Boston, however. Since January 1st, the Celtics ranked 25th in free throws and 20th in restricted area FG attempts. It’s not a part of their game. Neither is shooting, but that’s what they’re going to have to do in this series.
Nobody allowed more 3-pointers than the Milwaukee Bucks this season. They’re going to let a lot of Celtics shoot. From Marcus Smart and Al Horford to even Grant Williams, guys will be left open all series long. Add in the shooting struggles of Derrick White, and Boston may have a problem on their hands.
Hitting those outside shots will push Boston over the top in this series. They’re already built to work around Milwaukee’s strengths on defense. To really twist the knife, Boston has to hit the open shots Milwaukee gifts them.
Milwaukee’s drop defense also provides Boston a chance to go mismatch hunting. In the first round, Tatum ball screens for Brown and Smart became much more common. Now, Milwaukee is much bigger than the Nets. But, Boston will still attack Allen, Connaughton, Matthews, and Carter whenever they can.
It will be interesting to see how the Bucks play those mismatches. But, Boston’s offense should continue to find ways to thrive. They were the second-best offense after January 1st for a reason. And, if all else goes wrong, you always have two All-Stars to fall back on.
Marcus Smart Is Once Again The X-Factor
The heart and soul of the Celtics usually dictates their success. In the first round of the playoffs, he was on point. Dishing out 7.0 assists in addition to his DPOY-caliber defense is all the Celtics need out of Smart. They’ll need him to be reliable again to take down the champs.
That means no bone-headed shots early in the shot clock. No picking up two early fouls and missing most of the first half. Smart has avoided such decisions, which was a big reason why the Celtics have exploded in recent months.
In a series with Smart and Jrue Holiday, the two kind of cancel each other out. If Smart can win that matchup, and be more effective than Jrue, then the Bucks stand no chance. I’ll leave you with this;
Marcus Smart FGA in Celtics Wins This Season (inc. postseason): 9.6
Marcus Smart FGA in Celtics Losses This Season: 11.8
Less Smart = better Celtics. Just saying.
Confidence
Without Khris Middleton and how well the Celtics have been playing, Boston should be itching at the chance to be the ones to dethrone the current top dogs of the NBA. And they’re at home? Sign me up!
Milwaukee Bucks
No Khris Middleton is nothing new for this team. The defending champs have found that defending their crown is very hard. Another injury to a key contributor was the story of their regular season. Now, they face their hardest task of the year.
They face an uphill battle, but they have an ultimate trump card and some championship grit on their side. In other words, they have a chance.
Jrue Holiday Has To Be There
Jrue Holiday is a better player than Marcus Smart. I don’t think most basketball fans would argue that. But, both players are prone to falling out of place for one reason or another. Given how well Smart has been playing and how poorly Jrue has been, past records have to be stricken for this series.
Holiday has to be the fourth-best player in this series. In other words, he has to be the best non-All-Star at all times. Defensively, expect him to spend most of his time on Tatum and Brown. He has to win those matchups.
Offensively, he was poor in the first round against the Bulls. In the second round, he has to be better. He’s capable of getting it going in the scoring column. His driving & shooting abilities play well off of each other. He just needs to get going.
Last year in the Eastern Conference Finals, he averaged 22 points and ten assists on 46% shooting from the field. Milwaukee needs this level of production from Holiday to win this series.
Dealing With Boston’s Immense Size
The Boston Celtics are a lot BIGGER than the Chicago Bulls. And losing Khris Middleton means that the Bucks lose another wing body. So, dealing with that size will be pivotal in this series.
Giannis is going to see a heavy dose of Timelord, Horford, and Grant Williams throughout this series. When he gets those wing isolations where he tries to get to the bucket, he’s going to see bodies digging down on him at all times.
Will the Bucks try and go small against the Celtics? Maybe. Boston doesn’t need to go small. Instead, they can go from two bigs from one big – likely Robert Williams, at any time they want. But, if the Bucks can force the Celtics to go small, their offense would free up.
Assuming the Celtics don’t completely sell out on Giannis, perimeter shots will be there. Hitting those open shots will likely persuade the Celtics not to play their HUGE lineup for as long. It’s hard to find a team bigger than Milwaukee, but you’re looking at them.
The Celtics could pose a problem with their size. Interesting to see what the Bucks do to counteract that.
Milwaukee’s Bench > Boston’s Bench
After game two, Milwaukee’s bench was excellent. Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton led the way, providing the Bucks with legitimate scoring threats off the bench. With Bobby Portis forced to start, those two guys, among others, will have to continue to score in this series.
Bucks Bench PPG In Wins This Season (inc. Postseason): 30.3 ppg
Bucks Bench PPG In Losses This Season (inc. POstseason): 23.9 ppg
When the Bucks lost in game two last series, they scored just eight bench points. That can’t happen in this series. Boston’s bench doesn’t feature scorers, so winning the bench battle shouldn’t be hard. Winning the minutes when Giannis isn’t on the floor will be massive in this series.
Getting Allen and Connaughton going is paramount.
Confidence
I know they don’t have Khris Middleton, but the defending champs demand attention, no matter the circumstances. In that sense, the Bucks don’t have the worst odds in this series.
The Prediction
This series is going to be so fun to watch. Even without Khris Middleton, these two teams match up well. It’s an old-school matchup between two teams that aren’t following the modern trends of the NBA.
But, when the margin of error is so slim, star-power matters. And, quite frankly, I don’t know if Jrue Holiday can be the closer that Middleton was for this team last season. That’s why I’m going with;
Celtics In Seven
#1 Phoenix Suns vs #4 Dallas Mavericks
The Suns and Mavs both won their first round series in six games. To either team, that means two different things. If you’re the Suns, you’re greatful for the fire New Orleans lit under you, but disappointed that it took six games to beat them. For Dallas, you’re just grateful for your first playoff win in over a decade.
This series features elite perimeter play. From Paul to Doncic, this series will be a masterclass of passing, among other things. Here are my thoughts on what should be a very good series.
Phoenix Suns
After beating the Lakers in six games in the first round last season, the Suns swept their second round opponent. I have the feeling that it won’t be so easy this time around. From the aggression of Ayton to their Luka pest control, here’s how the Suns can get one step closer to the Finals oncemore.
Defending Luka Doncic
I put this segment in air quotes. Luka Doncic has never been able to be contained in the playoffs. Kawhi and PG hardly affected him at all. The Suns have two all-world defenders in their own right. Bridges and Ayton will do their best, but I don’t know if there’s a lot they can do.
Bridges gives up so much size on Doncic, so whenever Luka gets in the post, he’ll enjoy being guarded by Bridges. Honestly, when Doncic starts posting up, Devin Booker is a better option. His sturdy base at least ensures he won’t get pushed around like Bridges will.
Ayton isn’t as good as Gobert is on the interior, but he’s pretty close. He’ll have to play that in-between game, going from defending Doncic and taking away lobs at the rim.
This season, Doncic played the Suns just one time, shooting 39% from the field. But, based on the matchups, I don’t know if the Suns can slow him down that much. With that in mind, the Suns may look to simply eliminate Doncic from the picture.
They’ll hedge his pick-and-rolls, forcing him to give up the ball. Every time he touches the ball in the post, they’ll swarm him. I find it hard to believe that the Suns will play Doncic straight up. They, or any team, don’t have the personnel to do so. But I think they could try and just force every other Maverick to beat them.
I feel like the Suns have to be decisive with what they do with Doncic. Indecisiveness leads to mistakes, which leads to Doncic picking you apart, which leads to sadness. And nobody likes sadness.
Deandre Ayton Has To Play BIG
The Dallas Mavericks aren’t a very big team. Their big man rotation is Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. Both guys play their roles well, but they’re no match for Deandre Ayton. Ayton once again proved why he should be getting paid in the first round against New Orleans, doing work on both ends.
In this series, he won’t have to deal with someone like Jonas Valanciunas, a respectable threat down low. Instead, he’ll be the best center in this series by a mile. And he has to play like it.
When the Mavs go small, I hope the Suns give Ayton more one-on-one touches. They have to get him involved early and often. Ayton will earn points on putbacks and pick-and-rolls, but I’m hoping he’s a more featured part of their offense in round 2.
Sometimes, we see games where Ayton plays like Rudy Gobert. Great defense, but not a whole lotta offense. That can’t happen in this series. I need 8-12 shots per game from Ayton. He has to be active, punishing the Mavs for being puny.
Managing The Pigeons
(Pigeons = players you want to attack on defense – a term used commonly withing the NBA – also know as ducks. The more you know).
In this series, the Suns will to have to manage their mismatches. For them, are they able to hide Booker and CP-3 well enough? The Mavericks’ offense is spread out, so rotations have to be on point. No matter who you’re guarding, movement isn’t optional.
Offensively, the Suns can attack a lot of Dallas’s players. Making Luka Doncic work will somewhat hamper his offensive output. Brunson and Dinwiddie are two other non-defenders that should be targeted.
If the Suns are struggling on defense, guess what? They can come right back down the floor and bust Dallas’s butt right back. Your best defense is your offense, and the Suns may have to employ that in this series.
Confidence
The Suns were the top-seed in the league for a reason. They didn’t play their best basketball in the first round, but they face a greater challenge in Dallas. But, this team stepped up to the plate during the regular season and proved everyone wrong. Now, it’s time to do it again.
Dallas Mavericks
For once, the Luka Doncic-led Mavs felt in control during the first round. After two grinding losses at the hands of the Clippers, they had control over their destiny for once. Even without Luka for half the series, this new version of the Mavericks has proven to be the best.
Doncic said that this second-round meeting with the Suns would be “fun.” We’ll see how much success Dallas can have against the best team in the NBA.
Hitting The Gimmes
The story of the first round for Dallas was making their open threes. Sure, Utah was stupid and allowed too many of them, but Dallas won when they hit those open looks. Dallas can’t expect the same volume of open looks against the Suns.
But, given how good Luka Doncic is, those looks won’t disappear. Phoenix gave up 20 open threes per game against a limited floor spacing team like New Orleans. Against Dallas, that number is bound to get higher. When the looks come, they have to knock them down.
Bullock, Finney-Smith, Kleber, and Josh Green will be left open. The Suns will always be ok when these guys are getting open looks. They have to make them pay, or else.
The Deandre Ayton Dilemma
I’m sure Jason Kidd and his coaching staff can’t sleep at night because of Deandre Ayton. Like I talked about earlier, Ayton is the biggest mismatch in this series. Dallas doesn’t have anybody that can guard him one-on-one.
If the Suns start posting him up, the Mavs are helpless. They have to hope that the Suns continue to use Ayton sparingly, avoiding them from giving up 20-30 points to Ayton, which he’s capable of doing.
Defensively, it’ll be interesting to see how Dallas gets around Ayton’s versatility. Ayton is capable of staying with guards on the perimeter. The Suns aren’t a switch-heavy team, and Ayton is usually in some variant of drop coverage.
We’ll see how well if at all, the Mavs can take advantage of Ayton being forced to play in-between. Can he stop those lobs to Powell? Can he deter Doncic from methodically getting his way to the rim? I think he can, which is why Kidd is sweating right now.
Not only is Ayton so versatile, the Suns are miles ahead of Utah in terms of scheming. That makes it harder for the Mavs to pick on him as they did with Rudy Gobert. So….yeah….good luck with this dude, Dallas.
Luka Doncic
With Dallas at a disadvantage in most categories in this series, Luka Doncic will have to play hero, again. His calf injury didn’t seem to slow him down at all against Utah. Assuming he’s fully healthy, he’ll have to be at his best for Dallas to stand a chance.
Unless I’m missing something, I like the matchup of Doncic against Bridges. Doncic has so much size on him that it cancels out how talented Bridges is on that end, to a degree. That’s not to downplay Bridges, but, I mean, I think Doncic can win that matchup.
Whether it be Bridges, Crowder, Booker, or Rex Chapman, Doncic has to be the best player in this series. If Dallas wants any chance to win, that scenario has to play out. He has to avoid foul trouble, pick his spots, and make the right reads.
Doncic is already one of the best playoff performers in the 75-year history of the game. In his first semi-finals appearance, he has an unenviable task. But, if there were ever a player in this generation to carry a team single-handily, it would be Doncic.
Confidence
The Mavericks are back to being the underdogs. But, not many underdogs in the postseason have had a player as good as Luka Doncic. So, not all hope is lost.
The Prediction
A lot of people seem to think this series won’t be close. They’re ignoring the Mavericks as a real threat because they played the Jazz in the first round. I’m all in favor of making fun of Utah, but Dallas is dangerous. Sure, Phoenix is the better team, but this series will be closer than the consensus thinks.
Still, the Suns have the advantage and some extra motivation from their previous series against the Pelicans. So;
Suns In Seven
#2 Memphis Grizzlies vs #3 Golden State Warriors
These two teams duked it out for the second seed for months. Memphis evidently came out on top, but they still have more to prove than the Warriors. Golden State is still trying to preserve its dynasty. It’s the young upstarts versus the proven vets.
Who will come out on top? Let’s find out.
Memphis Grizzlies
The upstart Grizzlies battled their way through the first round. But, the comeback kids now face their litmus test. They have the depth and the homecourt advantage in this series. But, can they pull off an upset for the ages against a Warriors team that’s been so battle tested?
Here’s what they can do to do that toilsome task.
Can They Control Their Sloppiness?
It took the Grizzlies six games to beat Minnesota because they were sloppy. All the turnovers, foils, and ill-advised shots were nothing new for Memphis. But, in the playoffs, that sloppiness becomes so much more problematic.
Memphis somewhat controlled that in game one against Golden State, but they still had moments where they looked like the inexperienced team. JJJ stayed out of foul trouble, but Dillon Brooks didn’t. Memphis had 33 combined fouls and turnovers, which is far too many.
They did a good job of forcing the Warriors into mistakes, but limiting their own will be a battle to keep an eye on throughout this series.
Trying To Stop The Warriors
Memphis’ lack of perimeter defenders was concerning before the series started. After watching game one, it’s even more of a concern. From JJJ not stepping up on screens to guards getting lost in the sea of back-cuts, the Grizzlies didn’t take anything away from Golden State.
Not having Dillon Brooks, who was held to just 31 minutes in game one, was a big reason for that. De’Anthony Melton is a good replacement but doesn’t have the same tenacity that Brooks brings every possession.
Curry and Poole lit up the nets, combining for ten threes and 55 points on the night. Even when Draymond Green left the game due to his ludicrous ejection (seriously, wth was that?), the Warriors were moving like crazy. They got whatever they wanted all night long, which doesn’t bode well for Memphis.
The one thing that has to change is Memphis’ screening defense. There were too many breakdowns where the big guy was nowhere to be found when a guard came off a screen. That’s the easiest fix going into game two, but Memphis, as expected, is going to have their hand’s full on defense.
Ja Morant Has To Be Better
Ja Morant struggled against the Timberwolves, particularly on the road. His improved 3-PT shot disappeared, and he only shined in the 4th quarter of games. To win this series, we all knew he had to play better.
So far, so good in that department. Morant’s movements may have been affected by his ugly first-half fall, but otherwise, he looked great. He made the Warriors pay for sagging off his jump shot. He limited his poor decisions, stayed on the floor, and nearly had a triple-double.
34 points, 9 rebounds, 10 assists, and 3 steals is the sort of production Morant has to have in this series. With Golden State’s three-headed guard tandem on the other side, this is how Morant can keep up with them. I loved how he played in game one, but he’s going to have to continue this all series long.
The Confidence
Losing at the buzzer is heartbreaking, but the Grizzlies had their best chance to beat the Warriors, who were without Draymond Green for most of the way. They displayed how to beat the Warriors in that first half, bullying them on both ends.
If Morant continues his excellence throughout this second round, the Grizzlies should feel good about their chances of an upset.
Golden State Warriors
You know who they are and what they bring to the table. Golden State opened this series with a hard-fought game one, but they have a lot of work to do. Here’s what they can do to win this series.
Something’s Gotta Give
The three true outcomes in baseball are home runs, strikeouts, and walks. Nowadays, seemingly every team seems to lean towards these three categories. For Memphis, their three true outcomes are fastbreak points, offensive rebounds, and points in the paint.
Memphis dominated these categories all season long. Did the Warriors take these things away in game one? Eh, kind of;
Grizzlies In Game 1
16 offensive rebounds (24 second chance points)
17 fastbreak points
44 points in the paint
If we’re being honest, the Warriors weren’t that good at limiting Memphis’ 3 true outcomes. Their smaller lineups got bullied on the boards. Memphis got some easy trailer threes in transition (hi, JJJ). But, the Warriors had the exact same formula themselves.
They also had 16 offensive rebounds in game one. They even had 56 points in the paint. So, while they didn’t take anything away from Memphis, they beat them at their own game. That counts for something, right?
Slowing Down Ja
The Warriors’ game plan for Ja Morant has stayed true for the past few seasons. In last year’s win-or-go-home play-in tournament, they forced Ja to beat them from outside. And he did. They did the same thing in game one to a more fruitful outcome.
While Morant was 4/11 from downtown, I wouldn’t focus on the makes. I would focus more on the attempts. To coax a paint beast like Morant into those many 3-PT attempts makes their strategy worthwhile.
If the Warriors were to improve in any one area, it would be in transition. Morant got a few easy looks simply by weaving through traffic. That goes back to the three true outcomes. Since Golden State takes a lot of threes, the Grizzlies have a lot of opportunities to run in transition.
Overall, the Warriors should be happy about their Ja Morant defense. The decision to start the mitten proved to be the right one. Expect GPII to spend a lot of time on Morant, a matchup that is as must-see as it gets.
The Poole Factor
Jordan Poole coming off the bench is starting to feel like a slight. Matchups be damned, Poole was again the best offensive threat the Warriors had in game one. He kept Golden State in the game in the first half, burying a pair of deep triples to force a timeout from Taylor Jenkins.
In the second half, despite being hit in the face a million times, he hit more deep triples. The most surprising thing Poole did? Dish out nine dimes. What can’t he do?? Does it come to anyone’s surprise that Poole had the highest +/- of any Warriors player? (+10).
Once again, Poole is proving to be the tipping point for defenses. If handling the splash brothers wasn’t already enough, also dealing with Poole is impossible. It’s too much shooting and shot creation on the floor at once.
I said that Poole was Golden State’s x-factor yesterday. I will be talking my flowers for that take.
Confidence
(Jimmy G Voice)
Feels great, baby!
The Prediction
This series will likely be over soon. Assuming that Memphis continues to play like they did against the T-Wolves, they stand no chance in this series. They can’t rely on their opponent blowing double-digit leads in every game. That won’t happen against a team like the Warriors.
Memphis’ lack of discipline and perimeter defense will hurt them greatly in this series. The Warriors should make quick work of this team, like they did with Denver.
Warriors In Five
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