It’s Time To Face Reality
We had two game seven’s last night – with each team revealing who they really are. Here’s a reality check for the losers.
I billed game 7 as “the most unfair game in the world.” I think that was a fair assessment. After two hard fought game sevens, the Celtics and Mavericks (?) came out on top. Before I get prepared for the conference finals, it’s time for a reality check. Today, it’s time to talk about the losers. Bring out your ice cream, Tom Petty, and tissues.
Milwaukee Bucks
It was a heck of an effort from the defending champions. Without Khris Middleton, they fought until the very end. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a historic series. He became the first player to notch 200 points, 100 rebounds, and 50 assists in a single playoff series.
But, even with his heroics, it simply wasn’t enough. Without their second best scoring option in Khris Middleton, Milwaukee was flat in the win-or-go home rubber match. Here are my thoughts on their exit.
(Oh – tanking game #82 versus Cleveland wasn’t such a good idea, now was it?)
Khris Middleton For MVP
Without Khris Middleton, Milwaukee’s offense was ugly. Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 34 points in this series, but other than him, scoring was hard to come by.
There’s a reason Milwaukee wanted to speed up the pace of play. Trying to run set plays against this Boston defense was a death sentence. There was seemingly nowhere to go. While Boston got all the open looks they pleased, the Bucks had to work so much harder to generate those same looks.
Khris Middleton was this team’s closer last postseason. He was Milwaukee’s second-best clutch scorer behind Giannis during the regular season. His absence was heard loud and clear in this game, and throughout the series.
In a world of hypotheticals, I could see Milwaukee winning this series if Middleton had been able to return. That’s not a knock on Boston, but not having Middleton showed in game seven. That lack of off-the-dribble creation was sorely missed.
Last season, the Bucks avoided injuries like the plague. This season, they weren’t so lucky. And it cost them.
The Bucks Need To Modify Their Defense
Milwaukee’s defensive philosophy is controversial. The Bucks want you to shoot threes, specifically those above the break. They try and funnel you towards Lopez and Giannis, their twin towers down low. In short, the Bucks want you to beat them from outside.
Games 1 and 7 of this series are eerily similar. Let’s see if you can notice a difference;
| Game 1 | Game 7 |
| Boston: 50 3-PT attempts | Boston: 55 3-PT attempts |
| Boston: 20 points in the paint | Boston: 26 points in the paint |
| Boston: 45% FG in the Restricted Area | Boston: 10 FGA in the Restricted Area |
| Milwaukee: 34 points in the paint | Milwaukee: 48 points in the paint |
| Milwaukee: 27 points off turnovers | Milwaukee: 18 points off turnovers |
| Williams/Smart/White: 13 3-PT attempts | Williams/Smart/White: 30 3-PT attempts |
Milwaukee’s defensive ideology isn’t terrible. They’re forcing unreliable 3-PT shooters to beat them – and it worked for the entirety of this series. Jayson Tatum struggled to hit those pull-up twos against the drop coverage for most of this series.
But it’s the modern NBA. It’s becoming harder and harder to find guys who legitimately can’t shoot. That’s why the Bucks have to ease up on this method. I don’t think scrapping it is the answer. To me, they have to ease up a little bit.
Sometimes, it’s ok to let a guy get into the teeth of the defense. Brook Lopez doesn’t have to stand in the paint when you have Giannis lurking on the other side. Hopefully, this series is a wake-up call for Bud and the Bucks.
Sure, their formula worked last season, but with this current roster? I think it’s time to switch things up.
Giannis Syndrome
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic suffer from a similar syndrome. When they decide they want to take over games with their scoring, it does more harm than good for their team. Giannis is at his best when he doesn’t have the ball.
Instead, he feeds off of everybody else. He attacks the boards, posts up, and gets out in transition. Instead of having to attack the defense every single play and tiring himself out – Giannis dominates around the edges.
But, as we’ve already discussed, Khris Middleton wasn’t there. So, Giannis had to do too much. You saw the results in game seven. The role players he ignored throughout the series couldn’t knock down shots. That’s what happens when you dominate every possession.
More shots for Matthews, Connaughton, and Allen would have certainly helped them going into this game. That’s how role players operate. They need to get into a rhythm – especially on the road. This leads me to my next point;
What Does The Offseason Look Like?
What should the Bucks do this offseason? They were more top-heavy than they were in 2021. Their reliance on their big three increased. The losses of Tucker, DiVincenzo, and Bryn Forbes were understated. To get back into contention, they have to make some moves.
But, the Bucks don’t have the cap space to do much. That’s what happens when you extend your stars. Heading into next season, the Bucks will be -$60 million in cap space. Even worse, both Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis have player options for 2023.
At least one of them will decline that, looking for a deal on the open market. Brook Lopez will be heading into the last deal of his contract, as well. So, what can the Bucks do to add talent this offseason?
- First Round Pick (24th overall): Milwaukee’s late-round pick will be used as trade bait. It’s hard to believe anything otherwise. I find it hard to believe they’ll select a prospect – given that they’re contenders. I don’t know what they can get for this pick, but there will be callers if they make this pick available.
- Veterans: Contending teams always find veterans each offseason that contribute more than we expect. If Milwaukee could find one of those guys? Hallelujah.
Veterans like Kevon Looney, Otto Porter, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Damion Lee would be great adds to the bench. Milwaukee doesn’t have many other avenues. They’ll have to hit on their one-year contracts to be successful.
A dream offseason for Milwaukee is simple. They add shot creation, size, and depth. GM Jon Horst is going to have his hands full this offseason. Let’s see what he can do.
Reality Check
It’s hard to be critical of this team when they won the title in 2021. Had Milwaukee not won the title, this loss would sting way more. But, considering they were one game away from the conference finals without their second-best player? I’ll give them a slight pass.
But, the Bucks have work to do. This roster will need some tinkering to get back atop the Eastern Conference. On top of that, Budenholzer’s radical scheming may have to be shown a modern touch. Again, this season was disappointing for Milwaukee.
With the best player in the world, the world is Milwaukee’s oyster. Let’s see how their title efforts go in 2023.
Phoenix Suns????
That was…
uh
(twiddles thumbs)
I don’t think I can convey just how shocking this is. Not only did the Suns lose game seven at home, they lost by 33 points! They never had the lead! After a 64-win regular season filled with arrogance, it ended in flames.
After game two, I questioned if the Suns would sweep the Mavs. Now, it’s time to take a good, hard look at the Suns team, for better or for worse.
(Note: I won’t talk about game 7 at all. Dallas didn’t do anything overly complicated. They doubled Booker every time he touched the ball. Their scrambling defense was superb. And then there was Luka. Yeah…..)
Chris Paul … What Is You Doing?*
(*Shoutout Trevor Plouffe*)
Before coming to Phoenix, Chris Paul was the unluckiest player in the NBA. Despite being an elite point guard for more than a decade, he had only made the conference finals once. People empathized with him. They wanted to see him win.
All of that has changed over the past two seasons.
Last year, the Suns were America’s favorite team. They cut through the Western Conference like butter and then took a 2-0 series lead against Milwaukee in the Finals. You know what happened next. Paul was a big reason why the Suns collapsed last year.
Then, on his redemption tour, that finals loss was forgotten. 64 wins? Nobody expected that from this team. They were a well-oiled machine, rolling through everybody, never missing a beat. They went up 2-0 on Dallas in this series. Paul was playing some of the best basketball in his career.
And then, for whatever reason, he shut down again. Could it have been an injury? Nerves? Dallas’ defense? Ok, that last one was a joke, but seriously, what the hell happened? Since he turned 37, Chris Paul has been beyond horrendous;
After years of rooting for Chris Paul, it’s getting harder to defend him. We can make all the excuses we want for his five 2-0 series leads blown. But, at the end of the day, Chris Paul is the worst best winner of all-time.
The Blame Game
So, who are we blaming for Phoenix’s collapse? Not only in this game, but in this series? Well, Chris Paul has already gotten grilled today, so let’s shift some blame. Let’s talk about Monty Williams first.
Williams is one of the five best coaches in the NBA. But man, these past two years don’t reflect well on him. To have his teams unravel after taking series leads is surprising, given how calm Williams is on the sidelines. In this series, I didn’t like how they played Luka Doncic. They willingly allowed Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul to be switched onto the best player in this series too often.
Now onto Devin Booker. Booker’s stock has taken a huge hit in this series. After Donovan Mitchell’s round one fiasco, we thought Booker was miles ahead of time, closer to a guy like Jayson Tatum. Well…now Booker’s right back down to Mitchell’s realm.
Dallas’ attitude with Booker shifted in this series. In game 7, Booker didn’t see a single open look. Dallas doubled him every time he came off a screen, leading to poor decisions from the All-Star. For someone billed as a “sleeper MVP candidate,” Booker showed us his real colors.
On top of that, his trash talking royally backfired. I am of the notion that you can’t talk trash if you can’t back it up. Luka backed it up, and DBook did not. It was nice to see Booker be somewhat humbled by this game. I guess that’s the punishment you get when you poke the bear.
Role players like Crowder, Bridges, Ayton, and Cam Johnson struggled to make shots. Cameron Payne fell out of the rotation entirely, capping off a horrendous follow-up season to the contract he signed last offseason.
All in all, there’s a lot of blame to go around the building right now in Phoenix. But wait, things get better. Or worse. Depends on where you stand.
The Deandre Ayton Situation Is Frustrating
For months, I have pleaded with the Suns to extend Deandre Ayton. Now, Ayton’s future with Phoenix is in doubt. Despite being one of the best young centers in the league, Phoenix doesn’t want him. It’s hard to find a player as willing as Ayton to play in a decreased role. And still, Robert Sarver is going to let this dude walk.
To start, they don’t want to give him a 5-year max contract. Look, I get it. Paying Deandre Ayton, who has never been an All-Star, $30 million per year sounds crazy. But Ayton is one of your franchise cornerstones! Once this championship window closes (or if it has already closed), Ayton would be the foundation for the next great team.
But, Sarver and the Suns are likely to do two things;
- Let Ayton accept any offer sheet he wants on the open market
- Trade him
The first option is the one I’m hoping for. But, given that a lot of teams don’t have that much cap space – will Ayton find an offer he wants? And, even if the Suns match any offer sheet Ayton gets, that relationship won’t exactly be pristine.
The second option is, unfortunately, becoming more likely by the day. Will Phoenix want to go over the luxury tax for a team that got historically upset? Probably not. So, the Suns may look to trade Ayton, where he will get a big deal somewhere else.
Not that I’m rooting for Ayton to be traded or anything, but I would look to see him in Indiana. Haliburton and Ayton? On the same team? Where’s the dotted line?
But I don’t want that to happen. Ayton deserves to be paid (maybe not $30 million per year), and he’s a building block for Phoenix for years to come. Only they’re too stupid to see.
(Oh. And Monty Williams didn’t play Ayton at all in the 4th quarter. When asked about it, he said, “it’s internal.” Get your Ayton jersey swaps ready, everybody!)
Reality Check
It’s hard to say where the Suns go from here. They can bring back Deandre Ayton and have a solid offseason where they get better. Hell, they can win 60 games against in the regular season next year. But guess what? Nobody will care?
This team is like the DeMar DeRozan-era Raptors. You wait until the playoffs for them to implode. And, the Suns are going to find it hard to win in the Western Conference going forward. The Clippers, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Lakers will be more involved next season.
These last two years were prime years for the Suns to snag championships. Instead, they lost to a one-man show and his helping hands. We’ll be talking about this game for some time. It’s more infamous than the Kiss of Death in 1995. This loss is worse than Horry’s hip check of Nash in 2007.
Their record may be different, but make no mistake. These are the same Suns we’ve been used to for decades now.
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