Don’t Look Now, But Here Come the OKC Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder are supposed to be tanking. Instead, they’re a frisky, fun team on the edge of the play-in bubble in the West.
All signs pointed to the Oklahoma City Thunder being bad this season. Sam Presti’s endless brigade of picks and prospects needed a couple more years to show any signs of competitiveness. This season was going to be another tryout season for all their weird and intriguing youngsters. Instead, the OKC Thunder are pushing for the play-in tournament. They’ve been amongst the best teams in the league in January.
So, what gives? Are the Thunder getting lucky, or are they ahead of schedule with their rebuilding timeline?
Spaced Out Offensive Wonderland
Led by the eighth wonder of the world, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC’s offense has an identity. While they’ve been mediocre for the entire season, in January, they’ve exploded. And, they’ve been doing something they’ve done all year long. Attack.
OKC’s offense keeps you on your heels. They’re constantly attacking. Is it any surprise they lead the league in drives per game by a wide margin? Nobody generates more offense from drives than OKC. SGA is a big reason for that, but the Thunder are constantly driving and kicking.
This play from a recent game against Denver illustrates this perfectly;
The Thunder are looking to get into the paint and generate good looks. With all their youth, length, and ball-handling, covering the Thunder is no easy feat. They play at one of the quickest paces in the league and thrive in transition. They’re an opportunistic defense, looking to turn their defense into offense in a hurry (more on that later).
It’s worth mentioning that the Thunder are one of the worst finishing teams in the league. The league average shooting % at the rim (within four feet of the hoop) is 66.5%. This season, the Thunder are converting just 62.2% of these looks, worst in the entire league.
If the Thunder were closer to average, this spaced out offense would be even better. But, I haven’t been that impressed with OKC’s offense. It’s their defense that has stood out all season long.
Is The Defense CLegit?
Last season, despite winning just 24 games, the OKC Thunder had the 17th-ranked defense. It was pretty impressive, all things considered. This season, Mark Daigneault’s team is even feistier and stouter. But is it sustainable?
Over the past 11 games, OKC has sported the 3rd best defense in the league. For the season, they have the ninth-ranked defense (111.7).
Fun fact: this is the same defensive rating the Thunder had last year. Even in a scoring boom, OKC remains as consistent as ever defensively.
However, There are a few red flags with OKC’s defense. For one, they’re terrible at securing defensive rebounds. Nobody gives up more second-chance points than the Thunder. And they allow the second most free throws per game in the league. This defense is far from perfect.
But, despite being a slender, not-so-great rebounding unit, the Thunder have held their own defensively. Opponents have shot just 63.5% in the restricted area against OKC, sixth best in the NBA. Lu Dort is as tenacious as they come, and guys like Darius Bazley and SGA have shown flashes of being above positives on that end.
Now, is this defense legit? Is their top-five January defense sustainable, or merely a flash in the pan? Unfortunately, I’m leaning toward the latter. On cleaning the glass, they have a stat called Loc eFG%. It’s a stat that measures the efficiency of a team’s defensive shot profile. The stat asks one question: If this team allowed the league average FG% from each location, what would their eFG% be?
So, while the Thunder have allowed a paltry 52.0 eFG% in January — fourth best in the league — their Loc eFG% is 55.4 (23rd). The stat suggests that OKC’s stout interior defense won’t hold, and neither will their 3-PT luck. Opponents are shooting just 32.8% from beyond the arc this month against OKC, a figure sure to change as the month progresses.
That trend holds over the whole season. OKC has the 29th-ranked Loc eFG% despite being in the top 7 of actual eFG%. I’m not a huge proponent of the word luck, but OKC’s defense has gotten a lot of fortunate bounces this season. I do like that they force the most turnovers in the league. But, this isn’t some sort of elite, vaunted defense. At least not yet.
The Various Options at Center
Chet Holmgren’s foot injury over the summer left a seven-foot hole in OKC’s frontcourt. While they’re lengthy, OKC doesn’t have a lot of bruisers down low. But that hasn’t stopped them from finding creative ways to find their minutes at the 5.
Three OKC bigs have gotten consistent center minutes this season, all with varying degrees of positivity. Mark Daigneault can drastically change his style of play based on who’s playing down low. Kenrich Williams started in a game against the Pacers on January 18th. Jaylin Williams (the other one) started in Brooklyn, but he sat the entire fourth quarter when Bazley came in.
Mike Muscala is a traditional big, or the most traditional big, OKC deploys. Muscala is a solid screen setter and shooter. The ten-year veteran is shooting 36.3% from beyond the arc. And, of all of OKC’s bigs, Muscala is the most effective. With Muscala on the floor, OKC outscores opponents by 11.5 points per 100 possessions.
Kenrich Williams allows OKC to go small and gives the Thunder another ball-handler on the floor. This season, Williams has played 356 possessions at center. In those 356 possessions, the Thunder have a 131.5 offensive rating. That puts them in the 100th percentile of offenses in the league.
On the other hand, the lengthy Darius Bazley allows the Thunder to play “elite” defense (I’m sorry, I can’t help myself). With Bazley on the floor, OKC has a 108.3 defensive rating. This is what Sam Presti wanted. Lots of different ways to mix and match.
And when Chet Holmgren debuts next season, the Thunder will have the best of both worlds. They’ll have an All-Defense caliber defender and a shooting-oriented big. So, things will only be getting better down low. But, it is encouraging to see such positive results from players you may not be very familiar with.
Josh Giddey Is Being Aggressive
It’s hard not to like Josh Giddey. Whether it be his tantalizing ball-handling skills or his hair, there’s something for everyone. Giddey has been one of the few sophomore players this season to improve. His 3-PT shooting and improved efficiency have been a welcome sight.
But, over the last couple of weeks, Giddey has taken things to a new level. Since December 17th, these are the only players that have been doing the same things as Giddey;
- Luka Doncic
- Lebron James
- Pascal Siakam
- Domantas Sabonis
- Nikola Jokic
You’re doing something right if the guys above are your company. So, what has Giddey been doing over this past month?
18.3 points ~ 7.9 rebounds ~ 6.3 assists ~ 59% TS
This newfound, aggressive Giddey is awesome. He’s learning how to play next to Shai, who isn’t a facilitator at heart. An added scoring punch adds to Giddey’s value as a playmaker and ball-handler. There aren’t many passers as clever or creative as Giddey.
“He’s definitely physical in driving,” Oklahoma City head coach Mark Daigneault said. “That’s definitely showing up. Early in the year, I thought he was just trying to shoot over people, and now he’s taking space up.”
But, I think SGA had the best quote about our friend Giddey;
“He’s confident, very confident,” he said. “He knows what he brings to the table. When he’s kicking your butt, he’s going to let you know.”
Can OKC Make Any Noise This Season?
I don’t think the Thunder will be able to keep this pace up for the entire season. Most teams can’t. But their 8-3 record is a sign that they’re closer to competing than first thought. Mark Daigneault is one of the most underrated coaches in the league. Shai is an All-Star, and guys like Giddey and Jalen Williams are fine secondary options.
Unlike the Houston Rockets, this team is fun and plays their tails off every night. The Thunder currently sit at 11th in the Western Conference, tied for the play-in, and just one game from a top-six seed in the West. Think about that. This Thunder team is one game away from avoiding the play-in tournament entirely.
A playoff spot isn’t out of the question. If things go right, we could see this team in the play-in tournament. That would be valuable experience for such a young team. So, I’m not leaving out the possibility of OKC being somewhat competitive this season.
But one thing is abundantly clear. The Thunder have been hitting on their draft picks, they’re building a culture, and they’re on the rise in the Western Conference. Give them another year or two, and they could become the team they were a little over a decade ago.
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