Who Is Going to Win The Title?
With All-Star Weekend (thankfully) behind us, it’s time to focus on the playoffs. As of right now, who has the best chance to win the title?
We’re nearly 60 games into the NBA season. The trade deadline and All-Star weekend are behind us. It’s time to focus on the playoffs. Before the season, the Celtics were my pick to win the title. Now that we have 60-odd games under our belts, who has the best chance to win it all right now?
And, who’s under the most pressure to win the championship this season?
(Dis)Honorable Mentions
Before we get into the teams that have a chance to win it all, let’s talk about some teams who aren’t there. These teams need a lot to go right to turn into contenders, and, quite frankly, I don’t see it happening. For one reason or another, these teams have failed to put things together. We all expected these teams to be better than what they’ve shown us.
Two teams immediately come to mind with those parameters in mind;
Golden State Warriors
I think it’s time to sell your Warriors stock (for this season). We’ve been waiting for this team to fix their endless problems and separate themselves from the pack. Instead, the Warriors have been average on both ends all year long. Steph missing a few weeks with a weird leg injury all but kills Golden State’s chances of repeating.
The front office decided to let important veterans leave in free agency. Unproven youngsters had to fill in big minutes. That decision likely cost Golden State their chances at a fifth title. James Wiseman was unceremoniously traded. Moody and Kuminga haven’t been reliable enough. Turnovers, bad point-of-attack defense, and more turnovers have plagued this team all year long. It hasn’t been fun to watch.
Maybe Draymond Green’s punch threw everything off. Maybe the dark cloud of tough decisions facing this franchise in the coming months distracted everybody. Who knows? But I think Draymond Green summed things up pretty well before the All-Star Break;
Golden State has been stumbling around drunkenly in the dark looking for that proverbial switch. They haven’t found it through February, and I doubt it’s coming to them during the last stretch of the season.
Los Angeles Lakers
Remember the “dis” I put before this section started? Well, here’s why. I don’t need to tell you that the Lakers are bad. Everybody knows this. While they had one of the best trade deadlines in the league, the playoffs aren’t a sure thing.
Los Angeles is two games behind the 10th-seeded OKC Thunder. That doesn’t sound too difficult to overcome, right? Well, the Lakers don’t have a lot of favorable tie-breaker scenarios right now. They split their four games against Portland. They have two games left against Utah, the 11th seed, but they lost the first two contests. LA also has two games left against the Thunder. They lost the first meeting when James broke the all-time scoring record.
With 23 games left in the season, how many with AD and Lebron play in? Lebron may call this last stretch “some of the most important games in his career,” but he hasn’t been super durable in recent years. James has played once since passing Kareem, and he hurt his hand in the All-Star game. Davis hasn’t looked the same since missing extended time with a foot problem.
Defense remains an issue for Darvin Ham’s team, too. The Lakers have a 118.2 defensive rating when Anthony Davis isn’t on the court. Considering Davis is more fragile than a piece of paper, that isn’t a good sign. That 2-10 start will likely bury the Lakers. With 23 games left, they have more than an uphill battle in front of them.
The Lakers are desperate to win one more title around Lebron James. But, and I’m sure this comes as a surprise to nobody, they’re not particularly close.
The Actual Contenders
Alright, enough with these wanna-be contenders. Let’s talk about the teams that actually have a chance to win the title this year. On top of finding the best teams in the league, let’s talk about the pressure they’re under. Which teams have to win the chip this year, so to speak? And which teams are set up for more deep postseason runs down the future?
Let’s meet our contestants.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Pressure: Non-Existent
The Cleveland Cavaliers are set up for the future. Their core of Garland, Mitchell, Allen, and Mobley are all under 27 years old. That foursome will drive this team for the next 5+ years (barring anything unforeseen). The Cavs are good in the present, but there is no pressure for them to win this season.
Cleveland is a dark horse in the Eastern Conference. They’re boom or bust. They could get hot and make a run to the conference finals — kind of like that 2021 Hawks team that faced the Bucks — or they could lose in the first round. There are no in-betweens.
While the Cavaliers are good, they frustrate me. Everything about them suggests they should be better. And that’s saying something, considering they’re 15 games over 0.500. But, in close games, the Cavaliers are still working things out. Does Mitchell take over, or does Garland? Cleveland’s late-game possessions are stagnant and ugly.
When the Cavs win, they win big. 26 of their 38 wins have come by double-digits, the most double-digits wins in basketball. With their stout, tough defense, they’re built for the playoffs. But you wonder how this young, relatively inexperienced team will fare in tight postseason games.
Even though they gave up a haul for Donovan Mitchell, there is no pressure on the Cavs to win this season. They’re young, naïve, and innocent. Not to delve into the future too much, but this team’s future fascinates me.
Giving up five first-rounders — three of them unprotected — is the type of move that handicaps a team’s ability to get better in the future. That’s failing to mention Evan Mobley’s eventual extension. Cleveland has somewhat already made their all-in push, even if they’re not frontrunners this year. Could this team have an ugly, messy breakup if they don’t win a title for the next 4-5 years? Will Mitchell want out? Could Garland want to star on his own team?
Just a thought….
Denver Nuggets
Pressure: 2/10
It feels like the Denver Nuggets have been good for a long time. But, if you think about it, this is their first year in the sun. They’ve only made one conference final in the Malone/Jokic era. That was in the bubble where they came back from not one, but two 3-1 series deficits against the Jazz and Clippers. Denver fell to the eventual-champion LA Lakers in the conference finals without much of a fight.
Since then, injuries have gotten in the way of everything. This is the first year that Nikola Jokic has had serious help around him. Jamal Murray has been excellent over the past few months, regaining his form since returning from his ACL tear in 2021. MPJ and Aaron Gordon have filled in wherever they need to.
For the first time, Denver is a legitimate threat in the West. Their offense is ludicrously good, and nobody can stop them. They do have questions about their depth and defense. Their ability to hold leads when Jokic goes to the bench is also a concern.
But, Jokic is in his prime. Murray is 25. Michael Porter Jr. is 24. Gordon is 27. This team is just getting started, and this is their first true crack at a title. Similar to the Cavs, the pressure to win a ring isn’t monumental…yet.
Boston Celtics
Pressure: 3/10
Since Jayson Tatum’s rookie season in 2018, the Boston Celtics have played in 74 playoff games. They’ve made it to three conference finals. Last season, for the first time since 2010, the Celtics made it to the NBA Finals. For the better part of the past half-decade, you had to get through Boston to win the East.
Right now, it could be argued that the Celtics run the East. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are playing the best basketball of their respective careers. Boston’s roster is one of the most complete in the entire league. There aren’t any weaknesses, and we know how high their ceiling is on both ends.
Boston isn’t perfect by any means. They’re very reliant on their outside shooting, and their interior isn’t as strong, thanks to Horford’s decline this year. But I would be lying if I said that they weren’t the title favorites. They are, and they probably should be.
The Celtics put teams in a bind. They can score with anybody, and they can stop anybody. Even with all the drama over the summer, Joe Mazzulla has done as good a job as anybody could have expected him to. He just needs to call some more timeouts.
Anyway, Boston’s championship window is as open as the great plains. Tatum and Brown are both entering their primes and are unlikely to leave anytime soon.*
*(Unless the Celtics lowball Brown in free agency after next season, and he decides to leave. There is a small chance this happens again. I can’t imagine Brown taking another non-max contract like the one he’s currently under.)*
Boston is hungry for a title after coming up short last season. But it isn’t the end of the world if they don’t win this season. It would be a good redemption arc — a satisfying turnaround, but nothing more. The Celtics haven’t traded a boatload of picks in some ill-fated move (yet). They control their own destiny, and they will continue to be a force for years to come.
Memphis Grizzlies
Pressure: 4/10
It’s weird to put such a young team like Memphis this high on the list. But, in many ways, this is Memphis’ own doing. They put themselves in the unenviable position of being the most disliked team in the league. I suppose that’s what happens when you have dirty and cocky players littered throughout your roster.
How the Grizzlies went from being one of the most exciting teams in the league to the most hated will never cease to amaze/confuse me. A lot of people have forgotten how good this team is, however. While they’ve been in a Shannon Sharpe-induced funk for the past few weeks, I love this team’s makeup.
Jaren Jackson Jr. anchors down one of the best defenses in the league. Adding Luke Kennard at the deadline helped address Memphis’ desperate need for outside shooting. The Grizzlies are filled with talented role players who can play important minutes. Taylor Jenkins has an endless amount of options.
Memphis has done something that no team wants to do unnecessarily. Put a target on their backs. For a team that has won one playoff series in this new phase, they’ve done an awful lotta talking. Ja’s “I’m fine in the West” comments will be bulletin board material for any playoff for Memphis encounters. They haven’t done themselves any favors in that regard.
Every loss will have a magnifying glass effect. People are actively rooting against this team. Can they respond? I believe the Grizzlies have all the ingredients to win a title (minus starting Dillon Brooks). Getting out of their own way would make things a lot easier in the pursuit of a championship.
Milwaukee Bucks
Pressure: 5/10
The Milwaukee Bucks entered the break with a 12-game winning streak. With Khris Middleton finally back on the court, they looked dominant after a sustained period of sluggishness. During this winning streak, the Bucks have dominated teams. The Bucks had the league’s best defense and were outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions during this streak.
Any time with Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the greatest players ever, is bound to have high expectations. And while the Bucks have already secured a championship with Giannis, you get the sense that time isn’t on their side.
Jrue Holiday is 32 years old. Khris Middleton is 31 and has had major durability concerns these past few seasons. Brook Lopez is 34. This roster, outside of Giannis, is one of the older ones in the league. Father time is undefeated. There’s no guarantee this roster will age like fine wine.
It’s not like the Bucks haven’t won any titles with Giannis up until this point. But, other than their 2021 run, Milwaukee’s postseason runs have been disappointing. We’re not that far removed from the disaster in the bubble, you know?
Players like Giannis Antetokounmpo don’t grow on trees…obviously. They belong in the Pantheon of NBA greats. One title shouldn’t satisfy anybody, least of all Giannis. If Middleton can stay healthy for the rest of the season, this may be one of Milwaukee’s last best chances to win with this big three. There’s no overwhelming favorite expected to win it all.
With rumors of owner Marc Lasry “open” to selling his stake in the franchise, Milwaukee’s run of big spending may be coming to an end soon. As they say in Latin, Carpe Diem!
Dallas Mavericks
Pressure: 7.5/10
I was not a fan of the Kyrie Irving trade. While Irving undoubtedly raised Dallas’ ceiling in the short term, he complicated their future. The Mavericks almost have no choice but to give Irving the 4-year extension he wants. Giving a player whose track record is the epitome of unreliable that type of commitment is unwise.
Pairing Luka Doncic — your crown jewel — with a player known to make situations toxic is equally stupid. James Harden grew tired of his antics. I’m sure you could say the same thing regarding Kevin Durant. As talented as Irving is, he’s not worth the headache. But Dallas has put all their eggs into this basket. It’s too late to turn back.
The most peaceful part of this partnership would be the next few months. Irving doesn’t want to cause any problems…yet. He’s still playing for a contract. The Irving/Doncic combo has yet to win a game, but they’ve performed like we all expected them to. Irving has made Doncic’s life easier, and Dallas’ offense is unstoppable. With Doncic and Irving on the floor, the Mavs have a 131.2 offensive rating.
But Irving’s real value comes when Luka isn’t on the floor. Usually, Dallas’ offense struggles because they don’t have someone who can put pressure on defenses like Luka can. To be fair, nobody can. But, in Irving, the Mavericks have somebody capable of shouldering that load. In the Luka-less minutes when Irving is on his own, Dallas has a 123.1 offensive rating.
Hear Me Out…
This season is probably Dallas’ best chance to win a title. As crazy as that is to say, this is the season where Irving has the smallest chance to cause chaos. Sure, Dallas can’t play defense, and their third-best player is Josh Green, but that’s the reality of the situation. They have shown Luka Doncic no signs that they know what they’re doing. That dreadful Kristaps Porzingis trade is handicapping what draft assets they can move.
Doncic is under contract for the next three seasons, but he could opt out of his player option and become a free agent in 2026, just when he’s entering his prime. Assuming Irving doesn’t push him to the edge before then, Dallas’ window is closing.
In Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks have taken the biggest risk any team in the league can take. Calling whatever lies ahead an “unknown” would be the understatement to end all understatements. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win a title this season. Unfortunately for them, I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Which is why teams better start clearing some cap space for when Doncic inevitably leaves this shithole.
Philadelphia 76ers
Pressure: 9/10
The 76ers have still yet to make a conference finals with Joel Embiid. Embiid has had perhaps the weirdest and unluckiest career of any modern-day superstar. The 76ers had numerous top-three picks to surround Embiid with co-stars. They got Fultz, Simmons, Okafor, and Noel from those picks. None of those guys are currently on the 76ers.
Ben Simmons was supposed to be Embiid’s co-star for the long haul. Instead, he quit on basketball entirely and now is an afterthought around the league. James Harden, the guy the 76ers got after trading Simmons, is past his prime, and I think he’s hit his ceiling. Don’t get me wrong, Harden has been playing like an All-Star, but MVP James Harden is a thing of the past.
Embiid probably should have made it to the conference finals in 2019 if not for Kawhi’s improbable buzzer-beater. The Eastern Conference was wide open in 2021 after the Nets imploded due to injuries, but Philly blew that, too.
Despite being one of the most dominant forces the league has ever seen, nothing has gone right for Joel Embiid throughout his career. With the never-ending (legit) questions about his durability, the 76ers don’t have too many more chances. Harden is 33 years old. It feels like it’s now or never.
The 76ers are 26-7 in their last 33 games. They’re a well-rounded unit on both sides of the floor. They have shooting, size, scoring, and defense. It’s time for Doc Rivers and co. to put on their big boy pants and get the job done. We need to see Joel Embiid finally make a deep playoff run.
Phoenix Suns
Pressure: 10/10
Trading for Kevin Durant immediately puts pressure on the Suns to win a title this season. It doesn’t matter that their depth and wing defense are all gone. When Durant eventually returns from injury, the expectations for Phoenix will be understandably high.
The Western Conference is wide open, and the Suns have a chance to right some wrongs. They should have closed out the Bucks in 2021 after going up 2-0 in the finals….but they didn’t. Phoenix should have at least made it to the conference finals after a 64-win regular season last year…but they didn’t.
Chris Paul is 37 years old and clearly on his last legs. The future Hall of Famer has looked better as of late, but his slow start to the season made it clear that he doesn’t have too many productive years left in him. This season may be their best chance to win a title with Paul on the team.
Without Durant, I didn’t think the Suns were contenders. Now, they’re one of the frontrunners to win it all. The franchise’s first title has been a long-time coming. If the Suns don’t win this year, they run the risk of Paul aging one more year. They run the risk of letting another championship slip through their fingers. And they can’t let that happen for the third straight season.
For years, the Suns have become the kings of coming up short. Now, it’s time for them to finally get that Larry O’Brien trophy.
Los Angeles Clippers
Pressure: Active Volcano
I don’t need to tell you that the Clippers must win a title this season. You already know that. The Kawhi Leonard era for the franchise has been relatively very successful. For a franchise like the Clippers — which was avoided with a ten-foot pole for decades — making the playoffs multiple times in succession is impressive.
Leonard has regained his MVP form as of late. He’s looked like the player we saw kill everything that moved during the 2021 postseason. If he can remain healthy, the Clippers have a chance. I realize asking Kawhi Leonard to stay healthy is a big ask, but whatever, I don’t care. The team around him is deep, filled with veterans, and poised for another deep title run.
LA has had two chances to win the title with Leonard and they’ve come up short both times. Most notably, they blew a 3-1 series lead in the second-round against Denver in the bubble. That was one of the most embarrassing postseason losses I’ve ever seen. 2021 looked like their year…until Leonard tore his ACL. Then the Clippers had to burn a year while Leonard recovered.
The Clippers have one of the highest payrolls in the league and one of the older rosters. For the better part of a decade, they’ve had numerous opportunities to at least make the finals. But, for one reason or another, they don’t have one. Now, with the Western Conference buck-naked wide-open and a healthy Kawhi, the Clippers have to take advantage.
You don’t trade a bajillion first-round picks for Paul George to not win a title. You just don’t. The Clippers have gone about as all-in as you could possibly imagine. And, for once, it seems like luck is on their side. If any team needed to win a title this year, it would be da Clippers.
(Signing Russell Westbrook may be the most counterproductive thing you could do if you wanted to win a title. God I hate this team.)
So, Who Is Going to Win The Title?
Ok. We’ve talked about each team and the pressure they’re under. Right off the bat, we can take Cleveland, Memphis, and Dallas out of consideration. These guys are fringe contenders and are a few pieces/years away. This year is not their year, unfortunately. That sucks for Dallas more than anybody else.
That leaves us with Philly, Phoenix, Boston, Milwaukee, Denver, and the Clippers. Out of all those teams, which one will win the title this year? I think I’m going to go with the…
Milwaukee Bucks
Yep. That’s right. I’m changing my pick! I don’t think any of the teams in the West stack up to the powerhouses in the East. Denver and their lack of defense certainly don’t, and history tells me that the Clippers will mess something up. I’m sure the recently acquired Russell Westbrook will play a part in that. I don’t think the Suns have the depth or the cohesion to win a title. It’s almost March and we haven’t seen the lineup that they’re going to use to close games yet. Hard to win a title that way.
I don’t love that the 76ers have Doc Rivers coaching them. Or that they have to rely on James Harden in a playoff series. Neither of those things is preferable. Boston has been great all year, but I just think the Bucks are better.
The margins between these two teams are minuscule. If Middleton hadn’t been hurt last year, the Bucks would have beaten the Celtics. This year, both teams are on a collision course with one another. It will be an absolute heavyweight fight if they meet in the playoffs.
But I’ll take Giannis Antetokounmpo in a bar fight any day of the week. If you could bet the title on any one player, he would be a good guy to do it. And, as always, I have the right to make as many excuses as I want when this prediction inevitably turns sour.
You have been warned.
Who is going to win the title this year? Leave a comment down below!
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