What is Every Contender’s Biggest Concern Right Now?
As we enter the final leg of the season, we know who our contenders are. So, what are their biggest concerns heading into the playoffs?
No team is without its flaws. Even the best teams in the league have something that holds them back. Today, I will try to find every contender’s biggest flaw. Some teams have more concerning problems than others. This exercise aims to be as impartial as possible. Let’s strip away all the narratives and luster from these teams and find out what’s wrong (and how they can fix things).
Milwaukee Bucks – Khris Middleton
The Milwaukee Bucks are the best team in basketball right now. After struggling with injuries for most of the season, the Bucks have looked indomitable with the band all back together. Shrewd moves for guys like Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles have paid off wonderfully. The trio of Holiday, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo has been incredibly productive. When the three of them share the floor, the Bucks have been outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions.
Khris Middleton, however, hasn’t been an important cog in the Milwaukee machine. He missed the first 20 games of the year after recovering from off-season wrist surgery. Then, he missed another month of action after suffering a knee injury.
In total, Middleton has played just 551 minutes this season. He just recently returned to the starting lineup. His numbers are way down from his All-Star norms, and the Bucks’ offense hasn’t sparkled even though they’ve been winning. Despite winning 19 out of their last 22 games, Milwaukee’s offense is 10th in the league.
We saw last year just how important Middleton was to this team. In that second-round series against the Celtics, his ability to create his own shot was sorely missed. While Jrue Holiday has done a great job filling in for Middleton, he’s not the same weapon. And, since Holiday usually gets the toughest perimeter defensive assignments against opposing teams, also asking him to score along with his point guard duties is a tall order.
Once again, the health and productivity of Middleton will be key to Milwaukee’s postseason success. As good as the Bucks have been, they have another level to hit if Middleton gets his legs under him before the postseason. If he can’t get there physically, Milwaukee’s playoff run will be much more difficult. Can they keep up in a series against Boston or Philadelphia, two teams with lots of offensive firepower?
Even with all the depth the Bucks have, they need their stars to take them back to the Finals. We know what we’re getting from Giannis, Lopez, and Holiday. All of those guys have been brilliant this season. But Middleton, the guy who was a postseason hero in 2021, has struggled to stay on the court.
And if the Bucks want to secure another championship banner, I’m willing to bet that Middleton will have to play a major role at some point or another.
Boston Celtics – Joe Mazzulla
Before the season, I thought Boston would get out of the blocks slowly. With a new, inexperienced coach and an injury to Timelord, the defending eastern conference champs were not entering 2023 under the most ideal circumstances. Instead, the Celtics reeled off 18 wins in their first 22 contests and looked like the same world-beating team we saw to end last season.
Boston’s explosive offense was blowing teams out of the water. The #1 seed in the Eastern Conference was all but theirs. But, in recent weeks, the Celtics have slowed down. They blew a 28-point lead against the Nets at home. A couple nights later, Immanuel Quickley single-handily took over the game and helped the Knicks come back from double-digits, too.
The very next night, Grant Williams told Donovan Mitchell he would make two late free throws to win the game. He instead missed both of them, and the Cavs won in overtime;
It’s not that the Celtics have hit a rough patch. That happens to every team, no matter how good they are. The more concerning part has been some of the decisions Mazzulla has been making. In particular, his rotations in close games have been confusing.
For instance, in a showdown with the 76ers a few weeks ago, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon were instrumental in keeping Boston in the game. The smaller, quicker lineups were giving Philadelphia fits. But, Mazzulla didn’t keep White in the game down the stretch. Even though he was the game’s leader in +/-, White sat on the bench for the final 5 minutes of that game.
Sure, Jayson Tatum hit a game-winner, but it likely wouldn’t have come to that had White been in the game the entire fourth quarter. A similar thing happened against the Knicks during the Immanuel Quickley game. White didn’t play the final 9 minutes of regulation or the first overtime period. Not playing arguably your third-best player for 14 straight minutes in a close game is the wrong move.
Mazzulla favors bigger, slower lineups. Even though Grant Williams, Horford, Timelord, and Marcus Smart have all regressed this season, Mazzulla is stubborn to get those guys off the floor when they aren’t playing well. That will become more of a problem in the postseason.
The Celtics have fallen behind in the race for the #1 seed and are in danger of falling even further. Of course, you could blame Boston’s recent struggles on other things than Joe Mazzulla. Again, every team has some sort of rough path during the long marathon that is the regular season. But, lest we forget that this is Mazzulla’s first coaching job in the NBA. His only non-NBA coaching experience was at division II Fairmont State.
Mazzulla’s avoidance of timeouts is maddening, and so are his rotations. On a contending team, the margin for error is minuscule for coaches. Coaching is unquantifiable for most, but among the other contenders around the league, Mazzulla’s inexperience sticks out. If the Celtics were to face the Miami Heat in the playoffs, even though Boston is much more talented, I wouldn’t feel great about a Mazzulla v Spoelstra matchup.
Philadelphia 76ers – Doc Rivers
Doc Rivers has a rap sheet as long as Tony’s tab at the Bada Bing. I don’t know if there’s a coach you’d least want to be coaching your team in the league right now. Even Jim Boylen, of all people, got a job with USA basketball.
Even though the 76ers have been spectacular for a prolonged stretch (26-10 since Christmas), there are plenty of reasons to be concerned with them. And that sucks. James Harden has been fabulous and should have been an All-Star. Joel Embiid has been even better. So good, in fact, that Kendrick Perkins has lost his damn mind trying to defend his nonexistent case for MVP.
De’Anthony Melton has replaced Tyrese Maxey in the starting lineup, giving Philly more defensive versatility. A midseason move for Jalen McDaniels has looked promising. Tobias Harris has carved out a nice role, albeit not a $37.6 million dollar one.
Then there’s Doc Rivers. Amidst everything good that the 76ers have been doing, Rivers is the dark, gloomy cloud that hangs over everything. His all-second-unit lineups are stupid. His avoidance of smaller, unorthodox lineups makes the 76ers predictable. Rivers is a coach who doesn’t take a lot of risks. And while that’s not some fatal flaw, sometimes risks are needed — the necessary evil to keep your opponent on their toes.
Instead, 37-year-old PJ Tucker is playing 35+ minutes a night while George Niang sits on the bench. Lineups with Niang, Harden, and Embiid have been outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per 100 possessions this season. Niang only plays about 19 minutes per game, which is far too low for how productive he is as a stretch big.
And, as I’m sure everybody reading at home knows, Rivers is a notorious choker in the playoffs.
The 76ers struggle when teams go small and space out of the floor against them. They don’t have any wing defenders. Am I blaming Doc for that? No. But, despite this team’s limitations, I feel like Doc is holding them back a bit more.
When quick, on-the-fly adjustments are needed in the middle of a game or series, can Doc make them? Will he go away from Harris or Tucker when he needs to? Can he get his team to play hard for the whole game and avoid those prolonged stretches where Philly looks slow and lethargic? Again, the margin for error for coaches on a title contender is small. And even though Doc is as experienced as they come, he’s clearly Philly’s biggest achilles heel as we head into the postseason.
Cleveland Cavaliers – Late Game Dynamic
Everything about the Cleveland Cavaliers screams title contender. They have one of the league’s best defenses, anchored by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen down low — the modern version of the twin towers. Those two suffocate opposing offenses.
Cleveland houses two All-Star creators: Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Either one can take over games with their scoring or playmaking. On any given night, Mitchell can go toe-to-toe with anyone scoring-wise. There’s an assortment of good role players like Lamar Stevens, Dean Wade, Cedi Osman, Caris Levert, and Ricky Rubio. Kevin Love, a double agent sent to Miami to tank their season, has been perfectly deployed.
One look at Cleveland’s quarter-by-quarter net rating is reinforcement of how good they’ve been this season;
1st Quarter: +2.3 net rating (11th)
2nd Quarter: +7.0 net rating (1st)
3rd Quarter: +0.8 net rating (14th)
4th Quarter: +10.1 net rating (1st)
With all those ingredients, you would think the Cavs would be one of the frontrunners for the title. Instead, there’s one big thing holding them back. Their late-game execution. The Cavaliers have a 20-19 record in close games this season, a record far below where a team of their stature should be.
Late in games, having Mobley and Allen on the floor shrinks the floor for Cleveland. But taking those guys out isn’t an option. So, the small forward position is paramount to Cleveland’s spacing. The only problem is that Isaac Okoro, Cleveland’s starter, is left open by opposing defenses.
The result is possessions without any passes or movement, just one guy trying to play hero ball. There’s no room for the All-Star guards to create. And it’s frustrating because you know how good Cleveland is. This isn’t some mediocre team. They’ve been a playoff team all year! They still have the inside track for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs!
Even though it’s the middle of March, numerous questions still haven’t been clearly answered. Should Mitchell take over late? What about Garland? Is playing Isaac Okoro the best idea? What about Dean Wade? Or how about Caris LeVert? Do you see the problem?
A game against the top-seeded Denver Nuggets perfectly illustrates this problem. Cleveland managed just 6 points in as many minutes down the stretch of a close game. Too many of their possessions looked like this;
Okoro may as well be invisible. Look at how far off Porter is playing him. There’s no room for Allen to navigate and his shot gets easily blocked.
I know that the Cavs are a younger, up start team in the East. But, they have dark horse written all over them even with these late-game struggles. I’m a big Cavs believer, but these late game issues would be detrimental to them in a playoff series. Is there enough time to fix these issues before the postseason? Probably not. And that’s what stands in the way from Cleveland being a frontrunner for the title.
Denver Nuggets – The Non-Jokic Minutes
Without Nikola Jokic, it’s hard to understate how much worse the Nuggets would be. We all know what Jokic does offensively. He’s a offensive savant who can meticulously pick apart defenses without taking many shots. The Joker surgically frustrates teams with his patience and timing, finding passing angles that only he can see.
When Jokic is on the floor, Denver outscores opponents by 13.7 points per 100 possessions. They have an offense that ranks in the 98th percentile of the NBA and a respectable defense that’s in the 78th percentile. In other words, good luck stopping Denver when Jokic is on the floor.
But, when Jokic is on the bench, Denver falls apart. Their offensive rating drops to a paltry 106.2, which puts them in the 5th percentile of the NBA. What’s even more surprising is that Denver’s defense also worsens, jumping up to allow 119.3 points per 100 possessions.
There’s a reason that Jokic’s on/off net rating is an astounding +26.8! 26.8! That means that the Nuggets are a whole 26.8 points per 100 possessions better when the 2x MVP is on the floor compared to when he’s not.
So, those 8-10 minutes when Jokic isn’t on the floor become the most important minutes of the game for both teams. Opposing teams will try and either widen their lead or close the gap. Denver, on the other hand, will try and keep things as even as they can.
If the Nuggets can’t survive when their leader isn’t on the floor, that will obviously be a major blow to their chances for a title. Right now, they’re the best team in the West and haven’t faced a real challenge yet. When that challenge inevitably meets them, the most important minutes of their season won’t be when Jokic is there to save them.
It’ll be when he isn’t.
Memphis Grizzlies – Ja Morant
I don’t need to go too in-depth on this one. Ja Morant is clearly not in the right state of mind to play basketball right now. He needs to be held more accountable. He needs to make smarter decisions. The notion that the people around Morant are causing his behavior is foolish. He and he alone is responsible for the series of reckless, dangerous, and irresponsible decisions he’s made in the past few months.
The Grizzlies have put a real target on their backs. Everybody takes joy in beating the team who talks the most, the team who puffs their chests out whenever given the opportunity. And, for a team filled with youngsters, that’s not the position you want to put yourself in.
Morant represents Memphis’ only chance at a title. Whatever slim chances they have left, all of that hinges on Morant returning to the floor. Now, I’m not suggesting that the Grizzlies rush Ja back out there for the sake of winning. That would be irresponsible. But I think we all agree that Morant will be back in time for the postseason.
And, when he returns, can the Grizzlies rely on him? Last season, Morant’s knee injury stood in the way of a potential upset of the Warriors in the second round. This season, some of the shine of one of the league’s most popular players has understandably come off. Ja has turned into the distraction to end all distraction. His every move will be watched with a million magnifying glasses. The same, repetitive questions will be asked to him and his teammates at every postgame presser.
Even though Morant is the electric kickstart that makes Memphis dangerous, he’s now also their biggest source of concern. Do his teammates still like him? Steven Adams held a players only meeting where he told the team not to go out on the road and Morant defied him, going out and eventually ending himself up in this predicament.
Right now, both Morant’s path back to the court and Memphis’ hopes for a deep playoff run seem murky and far-fetched.
Phoenix Suns – Depth & Size
For three games with KD, the Suns looked unstoppable. They won all three games comfortably. Their offense overwhelmed opposing defenses. Devin Booker and Durant seemingly weren’t missing any of their shots. Durant let Booker take the lead role, and it was working. Beautifully.
Phoenix had a +23.7 net rating when Durant was on the court, with an absurd 130.3 offensive rating! And then, this happened;
Durant’s injury keeps the Suns from gelling. They now have to wait even longer to adjust to playing with Durant. There’s less time to work out the kinks and learn each other’s tendencies. But, more than anything, Durant’s absence highlights Phoenix’s lack of depth.
I have no doubt that the Suns can hold their own with anybody without Durant. Devin Booker will make sure of that. But the end of Monty Williams’ bench isn’t as deep as previous seasons. Other than Terrence Ross, right now, Phoenix’s bench consists of Jock Landale, Cam Payne, Ish Wainright, TJ Warren, Damion Lee, and Bismack Biyombo.
I think I threw up in my mouth a little bit.
Now, with a healthy Durant, the Suns won’t have to play those guys as much. Landry Shamet has missed extended time with a foot injury. But, even when they’re healthy, the Suns’ second unit will be a big cause for concern. Even though Monty Williams can have either Booker or Durant out there for the whole game, the guys surrounding the stars are less than ideal.
There’s not a lot of size or versatility. The Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson-sized holes on the wing are glaring. Trading away Dario Saric for Darius Bazley at the deadline seems even more puzzling now because of Phoenix’s need for depth.
As top-heavy as the Suns are, their bench leaves a lot to be desired. The deeper you go into the playoffs, depth becomes more and more important. That’s something this Suns team doesn’t have an abundance of.
Sacramento Kings – Defense
Kings Offense Since the All-Star Break: 126.8 ORtg (1st)
Kings Defense Since the All-Star Break: 119.4 DRtg (27th)
The Sacramento Kings’ best defense is their offense. Try as he may, Mike Brown can’t get these guys to play defense. There’s no rim protection and hardly any perimeter resistance outside of the ever-feisty Davion Mitchell.
While Sacramento’s offense is one of the most dangerous in the league, they can’t put teams away because of that horrendous defense. Can Sacramento’s offense outpace their defense to advance in the playoffs? As much as an advantage as their homecourt provides, the answer to that question is no.
Among Sacramento’s regular role players, everybody save Harrison Barnes doesn’t have playoff experience. As fun as this team is, you need defense to go far in the playoffs. And, let’s face it, the Kings can’t stop a parked car.
When the pace slows and the physicality ramps up, stops become everything. And, more than any team in the league, the Kings are incapable of getting them. Not to sour their impressive season or anything, but it would go against all logical thinking to think the Kings can make a deep playoff run.
But hey, crazier things have happened.
Golden State Warriors – Consistency
I don’t know what to make of the Warriors’ season. One night, most likely when they’re at home, the Warriors look focused and dominant. The silly, stupid turnovers disappear, and the defense clamps down. Even with an iffy supporting cast, the Warriors make things work. There are nights when it looks like the Warriors have finally turned the corner. Turned on that proverbial championship switch.
And then there’s nights where the Warriors…well…I’ll let Draymond Green take it from here;
The Warriors are 28-7 at home and 7-26 on the road. It’s something that we’ve never seen before. I don’t know how a team can have that stark a contrast in their play. It’s almost like the Warriors lose their abilities like we’re in a Space Jam move. And, I think we’re past the point of Golden State figuring things out. This is who they are — which isn’t a good thing.
Even with a healthy Steph Curry, the Warriors can’t get out of their 0.500 ways. While they have gained a little breathing room and currently hold the 6th seed, do we trust them in the playoffs? Can they play high-level, focused basketball to get four wins in four straight series?
Maybe that title took a lot out of them last season. Maybe it was such an emotional roller coaster from where they were in 2019 to return to the top of the sport. Whatever the case may be, nothing about this team screams contender. Steve Kerr can’t trust half the guys on his bench. Andrew Wiggins has been MIA for a few weeks now. Draymond Green got battered in a recent bout with the Bucks.
Of course, I’m forgetting that I’m talking about the Warriors, and they’re never truly dead until they’re rotting in their graves. If there were any team to miraculously rattle off a title run, even with all the inconsistency we’ve seen this season, you’re looking right at them.
But with each passing day, that consistency — or lack thereof — that has been their trademark during this dynasty is all but gone.
Los Angeles Clippers – Tyronn Lue
The Clippers acquiring Russell Westbrook just when they were starting to turn the corner is one of the stupidest basketball decisions I’ve ever seen. Not only is Westbrook a cancerous ball-hog who still thinks he’s a star, but he also doesn’t fit with the Clippers. LA released John Wall a couple weeks earlier and then took one look at what Westbrook did with the Lakers and decided to sign him. That’s a whole other level of dumbness.
It’s one thing to sign Westbrook. The problem is that Westbrook has been starting. Over Terance Mann. Huh? What’s going on, Ty Lue? You were supposed to be good at coaching!
In that thrilling double OT game against the Kings a couple weeks ago, Lue admitted that Mann, who was a team-high +6, needed to play more. It’s almost as if he is the coach, and he could have put Mann in for more minutes. It’s almost like that because it is like that.
Westbrook has been turnover prone and not as effective as Mann. And yet, Westbrook still starts for the Clippers. To no one’s surprise, the Clippers have a losing record when Westbrick plays. I don’t know why people keep assuming Westbrook will help teams when we have so much evidence to suggest otherwise. And calling out Westbrook for his flaws makes you “a hater.”
But I’m not here to call the majority of NBA fans stupid. We’ll save that for another time. Again, the problem isn’t with the Clippers signing Westbrook. It’s with Lue playing him for nearly 30 minutes a night. Lue insists on playing Westbrook even though Terance Mann is a much better fit next to Kawhi and Paul George;
Westbrook, Kawhi, and George: -6.3 net rating
Mann, Kawhi, and George: +6.8 net rating
For as much praise as we give Lue for being a coach who can make adjustments, he hasn’t read the room at all this season. For all the talent LA has, Lue has sabotaged that by starting Westbrook. Meanwhile, guys like Norman Powell, Eric Gordon, Mann, and even Bones Hyland are getting fewer opportunities.
When the postseason comes around, and every team starts playing Westbrook as the Warriors did, will Lue just put Westbrook on the bench? Why even wait for the playoffs? Westbrook can’t be trusted late in games. He’s best used off the bench in spurts. If he plays well, you can think about giving him more minutes in the second half.
But starting him next to the most talented two-way wing duo in the NBA? That’s not right. If Lebron James can’t co-exist with somebody, I don’t know why on earth you think it’s a good idea to give that same player minutes.
The Clippers, like the Warriors, have struggled to be consistent all season long. Even with a healthy Kawhi and George playing at an All-NBA level, the Clippers feel disjointed and incomplete. I could blame Westbrook all I wanted, but that’s like beating a horses corpse. We know this dude isn’t a winning player.
Everybody, except for Tyronn Lue, apparently.
Which team has the biggest concern heading into the postseason? Leave a comment down below!
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