What to Expect From The First Round of the Playoffs

Let the fun begin. The best part of the NBA calendar has arrived. We’re done with the long, grueling marathon that is the regular season. Now, we get to watch the best of the best battle it out for the championship. 16 teams are left and only one team will be left standing. With the first round of the playoffs on our doorstep, let’s take a deep dive into every series.

I’ll break down each series (even though most of them suck) and pick a winner. Let’s get into it. 

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(1) Denver Nuggets vs (8) Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets and Timberwolves are entering this game in two very different places. While Denver cruised to the #1 seed and got to rest their starters down the stretch, the Timberwolves were punching each other and had to play a do-or-die game to even make the postseason.

Regardless, the Nuggets certainly drew their toughest first-round opponent possible. While a matchup with the short, undersized Thunder would have most likely have been a sweep, the Timberwolves are a much better matchup and can make this series interesting, even if they’re short handed.

Even without Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota has enough bodies on the perimeter to at least chase Denver around. Gobert and Towns trying to stop Jokic will be entertaining. It’ll be interesting to see who the T-Wolves put on Jokic as a primary defender. While you’d automatically go to Gobert, the idea of Towns trying to stick with a constantly moving Aaron Gordon doesn’t sit right with me.

But, without Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels, an upset seems unlikely.

Pick: Nuggets in 6

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(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers

Now this should be good. The Grizzlies, amidst chaos and injuries, managed to snag the #2 seed in the West again. Los Angeles, on the other hand, salvaged their season with shrewd deadline moves. Not many teams who start 2-10 make the postseason, nor do they have a chance to pull off an upset.

With Memphis’ injuries in the frontcourt, the Lakers will give them a good fight. Not having Steven Adams or Brandon Clarke to deal with Anthony Davis is less than ideal. The Lakers draw a ton of fouls, so expect the foul-prone (but excellent) Jaren Jackson Jr. to be sitting on the bench for a lot of this series. That leaves Xavier Tillman as Davis’ primary matchup. I should note that the smaller Tillman had success against AD in the regular season, but how dominant Davis is will decide this series.

A lot of media pundits have automatically picked the Lakers because they have the two best players in this series. While that’s technically true, both Lebron and AD are far from what they were in the Bubble. Both of them are brittle and fragile. Are we sure they can healthy when they’re playing 40 minutes a night? Lebron didn’t look like himself during the play-in game.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies will have the third-, fourth-, fifth-, sixth- and seventh-best players, and I’m not sure Ja Morant is far behind James and Davis at this point. LA’s improved bench not as good or deep as Memphis’. The Lakers are very capable of advancing, but they need the two stars to stay in the lineup the entire series and at least one of their new acquisitions to overachieve for two weeks.

I trust Memphis to get the job done more than I do D’Angelo Russell or Dennis Schroder. Add in homecourt advantage, and the Grizzlies have enough to squeeze out a hard-earned series victory.

Pick: Grizzlies in 7

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(3) Sacramento Kings vs (6) Golden State Warriors

The Sacramento Kings were the best story of 2023. Thanks to their unreal health, the Kings played fun, fast-paced basketball where defense was an afterthought. The combo of Sabonis and Fox led the Kings to the most efficient offense in league history. Things were slightly less fun in San Francisco, however.

While the Kings were lighting the beam, Golden State’s title defense didn’t come without its bumps. There were injuries, turnovers, sloppiness, and road losses galore. But the Warriors ended the season strong, are getting Andrew Wiggins back, and will be the most daunting sixth seed maybe ever.

Sacramento’s season was great and a much-needed high note for a franchise that hadn’t been to the playoffs in 16 years. But everything is going against them in this series. The Warriors are more experienced. They won the season series 3-1. Even though the Kings have homecourt advantage (Golden 1 Center will be electric), they feel like the heavy underdog.

This series won’t be a struggle to score. Both offenses will find ways to thrive. Defense, on the other hand, will be paramount. Golden State will have Draymond Green quarterbacking them, and getting Wiggins and Gary Payton back in the rotation, even just for spurts, is better than relying on Moses Moody or Anthony Lamb.

Sacramento, on the other hand, doesn’t play any defense. Domantas Sabonis is a total liability in the paint, and the Warriors will attack him with every chance they get. Outside of Davion Mitchell, who I’m sure will get more minutes to faceguard Steph, the Kings don’t have any good POA defenders, either.

Don’t get it twisted — this Warriors team isn’t as strong as they were last year. This series will be far from a gentleman’s sweep. The Kings can stay in it by capitalizing off turnovers and getting hot from beyond the arc. Also, expect the Warriors to suck ass on the road at least once. Still, I think the defending champs have enough juice to pull off the “upset.”

Pick: Warriors in 6

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(4) Phoenix Suns vs (5) Los Angeles Clippers

With Paul George set to miss the start of this series with a knee injury, the Clippers dug themselves an even bigger hole. Missing PG for at least the first two games puts them in an unenviable situation against this newly formed Durant-juggernaut.

Even though the addition of Westbrook is now more helpful with George set to be out, I just don’t trust him. I don’t think he can make good, quick decisions that don’t hurt his team. The Suns will gap him and dare him to shoot, something I’m sure that will mess with his head.

Marcus Morris Sr. was inexplicably starting games for this team (65!). Even though he had a 10.5 PER, the Clippers consistently let him hijack possessions. He missed the last seven games on the regular season, although Tyronn Lue expects him to be back in the rotation. Why?!?!?!?!?

Even with the midseason additions of Plumlee and Gordon, the Clippers will resort to asking Kawhi (and George later on) to do everything for them offensively. Meanwhile, even though they played just eight games together, the Suns are much more harmonious.

The combination of Durant and Booker will give any defense headaches. Even though the Suns aren’t as deep, the lethality of their starting five is terrifying. Nobody could stop them in the regular season and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Barring some divine intervention, the Clippers will fall behind in this series without George and then struggle to keep things competitive even when he comes back. Both of these teams have had weird seasons, but the Suns have put it all together at the right time with I still don’t know what the Clippers are and it’s mid-April.

Pick: Suns in 6

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(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs (8) Miami Heat

Let’s move on, shall we?

Pick: Bucks in 5*

(Note: I’m giving Miami the benefit of the doubt. If they win one game, that may be even more impressive than an upset.)

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(2) Boston Celtics vs (7) Atlanta Hawks

The Celtics stood the most to gain from Atlanta’s surprising upset of Miami in the Play-In Tournament. I did not expect Atlanta to bully the Heat on the boards, but here we are. Boston was hoping to avoid what would have been another bloodbath slugfest against Miami, and they now get a soft-serve Atlanta team to feast on.

Atlanta doesn’t have the bodies to try and stop Jayson Tatum. Meanwhile, Boston has several defenders to make Trae Young’s life miserable. Atlanta has played just 22 games under Quin Snyder, so I don’t know if you can expect much out of this team.

The only way Atlanta can win this series is if their bench unit stays hot (53 pts vs. Miami) and they bully Boston on the boards. And there’s not a world where I see that happening for an entire series. Not having the resources to stop Tatum will make this series short. Boston will get a chance to tune everything up before the real fights begin in the later rounds.

Pick: Celtics in 5

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(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs (6) Brooklyn Nets

A defanged Brooklyn team post-Kevin Durant is better than you might think — but they still should be no match for the Sixers. Philly won all four regular-season meetings, and the Nets don’t have anyone to guard Joel Embiid, not with Nic Claxton weighing in at 43 pounds.

The strategy, of course, will be to double him with the Nets’ myriad big wings, try to force turnovers, and make the other Sixers beat them. That almost worked in the one most relevant game between the teams, a 101-98 Philly win shortly after the Durant trade. Brooklyn’s array of wings and length will make life especially difficult for Harden and Maxey.

If Mikal Bridges and the Nets can hit a ton of threes, they can maybe steal a game or two. Philly isn’t exactly a team known for exerting maximum effort for 48 minutes. I doubt this series will be a sweep, but I doubt the 76ers will get worried at any point in time.

Pick: 76ers in 5

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(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) New York Knicks

This is the one first-round matchup in the Eastern Conference that won’t be laughable. Both of these teams are relative newcomers to the postseason. Cleveland hasn’t made the playoffs without Lebron since 1998. And the Knicks are much better than their fluky 2021 selves that got shelled versus the Hawks.

A lot of this series hinges on the health of Julius Randle. Randle suffered a sprained ankle on March 29th and missed the last stretch of the regular season. While the play-in tournament gave him some more rest, I doubt he’ll be 100% at the start of this series, even if he does suit up.

The Knicks won two of the three regular-season games against the Cavs. And while they don’t have homecourt, I doubt any team can muster the raucousness of Madison Square Garden. That place will once again be difficult to play in.

But I think everybody is underestimating just how good the Cavs are. They had the best defense in the league and outscored opponents by 5.5 points per game. Along with Donovan Mitchell, the best player in this series, the Cavs should be favored.

While this isn’t their year to contend, they’re very good. The Cavs proved they can overcome an iffy bench and even iffier small forward production. I think they can do it in the postseason, too. Defensive specialist Isaac Okoro should be back for Game 1 after missing some time with knee soreness.

The Knicks will have to win this series on the perimeter. Getting through Mobley and Allen down low is a task that few teams can manage, much less this smaller Knicks team. I’m guessing Jalen Brunson will have to do the heavy lifting in this series.

I’ve been a Cavs supporter all year long and I think they’ll get a series win. They’re frontcourt is far fiercer and Cleveland’s style if built for the playoffs. Nonetheless, I’m just glad we’re getting a competitive series.

Pick: Cavs in 6

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What Are Your Thoughts on These Predictions? Leave a Comment Down Below!

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