5 Things to Watch For in the NBA Finals
Finally. After a drawn out, dramatic Eastern Conference Finals, the NBA Finals are upon us. Here are six things to keep an eye on.
After Miami’s commanding game seven victory over the Celtics, we have our NBA Finals matchup. The upstart Heat are making their second trip to the finals in four seasons. Powered by Jimmy Butler and elite role player production, the Heat are playing with house money. They’re just the second-eighth seed to ever make it this far. On the other side, you have the Denver Nuggets, who are making the franchise’s first-ever finals appearance. Led by Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, this is the franchise’s best chance to capture their first ever championship.
This series features star powers, x-factors, and great coaching. It may not be as sexy as a series between the Lakers and Celtics would have been, but it won’t be uninteresting. Here are five things to watch for in what should be a riveting series.
How Can the Heat Stop Nikola Jokic?
Nikola Jokic has been the best player in these playoffs, and it hasn’t been particularly close. The 2x MVP is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists on an absurd 62% TS! Jokic has eight triple-doubles in fifteen games and is embarking on a historic playoff run.
Jokic’s success has correlated with Denver’s offense getting better and more efficient as the playoffs have progressed;
- Regular Season: 116.8 ORtg
- First Round: 117.2 ORtg
- Second Round: 120.0 ORtg
- Conference Finals: 122.3 ORtg
So, how can the Heat try and slow down Jokic? While Miami doesn’t have great size or personnel to deal with Jokic, you know they have a lot of tricks up their sleeve. Expect a lot of different coverages to be thrown out there by Spoelstra.
Bam Adebayo will be the primary matchup for Jokic in this series. Guys like Kevin Love and Cody Zeller won’t stand a chance. Miami is typically a switch-heavy team, but don’t expect them to do that against the Nuggets. The Heat switched on just 8% of screens that Jokic set against them this season, according to Second Spectrum—their lowest percentage against any of the top 50 screeners against them. Miami’s average switch rate against that group was 28%.
Miami also don’t want to engage Jokic’s passing chops by helping Adebayo, thus leaving other Nuggets open on the perimeter. Jokic registered 20 post-ups against Miami this season, and the Heat sent a hard double just once. That one double team came when Adebayo wasn’t even on Jokic. So, double teams also seem to be out of the equation.
The Lakers found success by putting the smaller Rui Hachimura on Jokic and letting Anthony Davis play free safety. A coupon version of that strategy could be to put the stout, 6’7″ Haywood Highsmith on Jokic and let Adebayo roam. I don’t love how that sounds, either.
Add in the fact that Adebayo is two inches shorter and about 30 pounds lighter, and you’ve got yourself a mismatch. Given how well rested Jokic should be in this series, I don’t see a world where Miami can stop him. They just don’t have the frontline size or depth to really bother him.
Still, there is one strategy they can roll out there.
In Denver’s three playoff losses this season, Jokic has averaged 42.0 points. So, one strategy could be to let Jokic score all he wants and shut down everybody else. By the end of the game, you hope he’s tired and a little more vulnerable defensively. If Jokic has 40 points with five assists, Miami has a chance. If Jokic has 25 points on 12 shots with 15 assists, the Heat have no chance because that means everyone else is getting in on the action.
Jamal Murray, then, has to be the focal point for the Heat. Murray has been superb in these playoffs, surgically getting to his spots and hitting every mid-range shot he takes. It’ll be interesting to see who Miami throws on Murray, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Jimmy Butler takes on the assignment of slowing down Denver’s most potent perimeter threat.
Not having a great game plan to slow down Jokic isn’t very comforting and doesn’t bode well for Miami’s chances in this series. It will be a constant, uphill battle to try and slow down the undisputed best player in the world right now. But that’s the challenge the Heat face in this series.
How Can the Nuggets Slow Down Jimmy Butler?
On the other end, if the Nuggets can’t control Jimmy Butler, this series will become interesting. Against the Celtics, Butler went into a lull because Boston stopped falling for his array of fakes and shot fakes. In game 7, Butler regained his form by simply not hesitating. This sped up version of Butler threw Boston off balance.
Butler will have to strike a similar balance in this series. Miami can’t afford to have Jimmy go into another three game lull. Denver is too good and more importantly, too consistent for that to happen. Aaron Gordon, KCP, and Bruce Brown will take turns guarding Butler. I don’t expect Denver to reinvent the wheel with Jimmy here. They’ll dare him to make jumpers and try him keep away from the rim.
Gordon, in particular, has been something of a Butler stopper. Over the past three seasons, Butler has scored only 11.4 points per 100 plays when defended by Aaron Gordon, according to Second Spectrum. Butler also has an effective field goal percentage of just 26 percent when Gordon guards him. In fairness to Butler, AG has never faced Playoff Jimmy, which, as we all know, is a totally different beast.
Expect Butler and the Heat to mercilessly hunt Jamal Murray, the one weak point in Denver’s rotation. The Lakers abused Murray at times during the conference finals, although Denver became better at hiding him as the series progressed.
While Denver has more options for guarding Jimmy than Miami has for Jokic, I don’t expect Butler to be quiet in this series. Not only does his game crescendo right along with the stakes, he knows he has to outplay Jokic in this series for Miami to win. Or at least match him.
Again, that’s a tall order, but the Heat wouldn’t have beaten the Bucks or Celtics if not for Butler’s heroics. They’ll need another virtuoso performance from their leader to hang tough in this series.
Miami’s Shooting Can’t Continue….Right?
The Nuggets have the postseason’s best offense largely because they generate the best shots. Nikola Jokic is good offense unto himself. Whenever things are going a little sideways, Denver knows they have a guaranteed decent look as long as Jokic is involved somehow.
Meanwhile, the Heat succeed offensively in spite of their shot selection. They’ve managed to stay afloat this postseason because of their incredible shot-making. Despite ranking just 27th in the regular season with 34 percent accuracy on 3-pointers, the Heat — mostly without Tyler Herro — have been, well, extra hot in the playoffs. They struggled from distance in the second round against the Knicks but made 45 percent of their 3-pointers to upset the Bucks and 43 percent against the Celtics.
Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, and a reinvigorated Duncan Robinson have led this 3-PT barrage. Throughout these playoffs, you’ve almost been waiting for Miami’s shooting to peter out of them; for their luck to run out. So far, after 12 playoff wins, it hasn’t.
Somehow, someway, Miami always seems to generate good looks from beyond the arc. This postseason, they’re creating about 26 “open” 3-pointers per game. NBA.com defines an “open” shot as the closest defender being more than 4 feet away from the shooter. On these open looks, the Heat are shooting a blistering 42%.
At this point, I’m willing to throw all common sense out the window. Miami has made it to this point because they’ve gotten hot at the right time. Getting back Tyler Herro midway through this series will only give them more firepower.
The 3-pointer is the great equalizer in basketball. Sure, Denver has also been shooting the ball very well in these playoffs (38.6% 3-PT overall, second to only the Heat, who sit at 39.0%). And there’s no doubt that the Nuggets have the more sustainable model for their shooting.
But, as has been the case in most aspects of their Cinderella run, Miami just makes it work. Call their complete 180° turnaround shooting-wise voodoo magic or devil magic all you want. I’ll be right there with you. Role players can singlehandedly turn the tide of a series, and it’s hard to find a scrappier group of guys than this Heat team.
This rag-tag bunch of mostly undrafted players who have been thrust into the spotlight will again be invaluable. The question is, can they answer the call once more?
Vlatko Čančar Might be Denver’s Ace up the Sleeve
Yeah, yeah. I know what you’re thinking. How can Vlatko Čančar, a man who has played all but ten minutes this postseason, contribute meaningfully? I’m well that there’s a very high likelihood that Čančar continues to ride the bench in this series.
But, in another world, he could be the perfect diamond in the tough. Given the limitedness of Denver’s bench, they’ll be looking for anything to give their starters more rest. While Čančar was underwhelming in the regular season, two of his best games came against Miami.
He scored 25 points across the team’s two meetings on 82% from the field. Who knows? Maybe Michael Malone uses Čančar as an in-series “adjustment” if the bench is getting thoroughly outplayed.
Čančar may not play in game one, per se, but we could see him later in the series. Denver doesn’t have many hidden tricks, but Čančar is one of them. We could see him have a 12-point game in this series, totally out of the blue, and it ends up swinging the pendulum of the game and series.
If that happens, guess who told you to watch out for it? This guy.
A Coaching Battle for the Ages
Good coaching is timeless. And this matchup between Erik Spoelstra and Michael Malone is about as good as it gets. Both of these guys are great at leading their teams, controlling emotions, and making on the fly adjustments when needed.
We all know how good (and crazy) Spoelstra is by know. He’s run circles around everybody’s he’s faced this postseason. The likes of Budenholzer, Thibodeau, and Mazzulla have been outclassed at every turn as Spoelstra has turned in one of the best coaching efforts in recent memory.
Despite Miami having a negative point differential during the regular season, Miami has pushed all the right buttons at the right time. Not many coaches would have the guts to play zone as much as the Heat have.
It’s not imperative that Malone outcoaches Spoelstra for Denver to win. I’m sure Spoelstra will outcoach Malone, who is also one of the best coaches in the league. But, one of the best qualities about Malone and these Nuggets is their consistency level. The Nuggets have been almost unstoppable in large part because they’re alarmingly consistent. You have to raise your level to the Nuggets. The Nuggets aren’t going to sink to your level.
Of course, a lot of that can be credited to the players. But Malone certainly deserves credit for keeping this team on track at all times. He’s done a fantastic job fixing this rotation throughout the postseason. Bruce Brown has become the backup point guard. Denver has also been able to play small without Jokic as long as Jeff Green and Gordon stayed on the floor. This has helped the Nuggets patch up those non-
Who’s Going to Win This Series?
On paper, this series doesn’t look particularly close. Denver has homecourt advantage, the best player in the series, and a more sustainable offensive model. While Miami can catch lightning in a bottle and win a few games off the back of Jimmy Butler or their elite 3-PT shooting, I doubt they can win four games doing that.
Denver will have to work for this, obviously, but this series feels more like a coronation. A recognition of this team’s excellence and Jokic’s place amongst his peers both in the past and present. As the Western Conference undergoes an identity change, maybe this is the proverbial changing of the guard.
Pick: Nuggets in Six
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