Predicting The First Round Of The NBA Playoffs!
Thank you NBA for not giving us a day break between the play-in and the playoffs. Really helps my sleep schedule. Anyway, the first round of the playoffs are here. After 6 games in the play-in, we have our #7 and #8 seeds in both conference, giving us a full 16 team bracket. Today I will be going over each series and predicting a winner.
Eastern Conference
#1 Philadelphia 76ers vs # 8 Washington Wizards
Here We Go
The 76ers don’t have to play the Bucks, Heat, or Nets until the Eastern Conference Finals. There are no Kawhi Leonard 4 rim bounces or Boston Celtics in your way. Take care of business. The Wizards are a simple team, paint points and getting out in transition. Embiid anchors things down low and Simmons and Thybulle can disrupt things on the perimeter.
The Wizards lack of shooting doesn’t mean Philly lack of shooting/spacing can get exposed and Embiid should eat down low. If this isn’t a sweep, we’re going to have problems.
Yeah…
The Wizards made the playoffs which is cool, but they aren’t winning this. I’ll be surprised if they win one game. They can’t guard Embiid, and Westbrook and Beal are going to get hounded by Simmons and Thybulle. The Wizards are sloppy and overmatched. On to next year.
Series Predictions
Please don’t mess this up.
76ers Win 4-0
#2 Brooklyn Nets vs #7 Boston Celtics
It’s Time
{Bruce Buffer Voice For Title}
It’s time for the Nets to show why they were assembled. Easily the best and most talented roster in the league, injuries hit them hard. KD missed 35 games, Kyrie missed 18 games, and Harden missed 27 out of 63 games for the Nets. But as a trio they were 6-2 together and now using the power of strawberry smoothies, they are ready to dominate.
Offensively, what can’t they do? Harden is averaging 11 assists per game and really makes the offense click. Kyrie Irving didn’t seem focused on basketball and yet he still put up a 50/40/90 season, which is incredibly impressive. KD had no signs of rust coming back from injury. Those 3 alone is enough, but there’s more. Joe Harris was the most efficient 3-PT shooter this year at 48% (Davis Bertans got paid $5 million more than Harris, friendly reminder).
Jeff Green averaged 11 points and shot 40% from 3. Blake Griffin has been a great glue guy, hustler, and rebounder (He’s had 55 dunks in 138 games with the Pistons. He had 18 dunks in 26 games with the Nets). Landry Shamet shot 42% from 3 after the All-Star break. Mike James is averaging nearly 8 points per game. Bruce Brown has invented a new position, the rover, thanks to the play-making of James Harden.
The Nets ranked #1 in offensive rating (117.3). It’s the highest offensive rating of all-time, breaking the record (116.7) set by Luka Doncic and Dallas last year. Brooklyn is #2 in points per game, #1 in FG%, #2 in 3-PT%, #6 in FT%, #6 in Fast-Break Points, yeah they’re good on this side of the ball. The other side of the ball remains the question.
Post All-Star Break the Nets were the 20th ranked defense. Believe it or not, that’s enough. The Nets have so much offense that even being mediocre on defense is fine. But they do need to do a few things. Don’t play Deandre Jordan. He’s old and slow, just don’t. Go small or play Nicolas Claxton. Those are your two options.
Make Jayson Tatum play in a crowd. Boston’s only real “chance” is to give it to the all-time leading play-in scorer. The Nets really just have to force other guys to make shots. Other than Tatum, I really would like my chances with that strategy.
Remember what I said about Nicolas Claxton. I really need him to play 20-25 minutes for his defense. He’s athletic, quick, and can stay somewhat well with guys on the perimeter. This stat says it all;
In 596 minutes this season with Claxton on the floor, the Nets had a defensive rating of 104.5, which would rank #1 in the league.
In 2,888 minutes with Claxton off the floor, the Nets had a defensive rating of 115.8. That would rank 28th in the league.
I do get the idea of playing Green or Griffin as a small ball 5, but Claxton is very good defensively and the Nets are great when he’s on the floor. Play him a bit, experience be damned. He is their key defensively. But defense won’t really matter in the end. Unless the Nets revert back to the defense they were playing against Collin Sexton and the Nets in January, they should win this series quite easily.
Prize?
Jayson Tatum had 50 points in a dominating game against the Wizards. The Celtics won. Their reward? The greatest offense the league has ever seen. Some reward. The Celtics are over-matched, that’s obvious. I’m not going too in depth into this because without Brown they don’t stand a chance. Even with Brown I would take Brooklyn rather comfortably. With Tatum being the only guy I really fear in this series, Brooklyn (should) try and force others to make shots. The Celtics defense simply doesn’t have the bodies to guard Brooklyn and this series is essentially a failed state.
The only hope for Boston is that the Nets play January defense and they make so many shots that they win (really pushing it here). Boston might make things close, maybe even win a game, but this isn’t a year for a deep playoff run.
Series Predictions
Nets are just too much for Boston, plain and simple.
Nets Win 4-0
#3 Milwaukee Bucks vs #6 Miami Heat
Oh God
On paper, this should be a series win. The Bucks had the advantage last year too and look where that got them. The Bucks have even more talent, as this is the best team they’ve had in the last 3 years. Now it’s time to finally use it.
Offensively the Bucks are great. They are one of the deepest teams in the league, led by Giannis. The Greek Freak put up similar numbers to his two previous MVP campaigns, but because nobody likes to see somebody win too much, he didn’t get the award. Giannis has been the scapegoat for the Bucks playoff meltdowns in the last two years, especially last year against Miami. Teams are going to build a wall and Giannis has to adapt and score. Part of that’s on him and part of that is coaching. More on that later.
But the two guys under the most pressure in my opinion are Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton. Pre All-Star Break Middleton was at his usual, 20 points per game on great efficiencies. But after the All-Star Break, things sloped downwards a bit. He went from 50% shooting from the field to 46%. 43% from 3 to 39%. Not the best sign in the world but he’s going to have to be key. I imagine Jimmy Butler is going to be guarding him, which is tough, but he has to be hitting shots. He is certainly capable, being that he can score at all 3 levels.
Another guy under some pressure is Jrue Holiday. For the first time in his career, he’s on a real team. Let’s see how he does. The defense is excellent, we all know that (even if he is misused). Offensively Holiday started off slow, dealt with Covid, but after the All-Star break, he was great. Nearly 20 points per game, 7 assists, and 1.5 steals. 51% shooting from the field and 41% from 3. He was great. He is going to have to be better than Eric Bledsoe (low bar, I know). He and Middleton are going to have to both be All-Star caliber during this post-season for the Bucks to make a run.
The Bucks role players are solid. Portis and Forbes both shooting north of 45% from 3. DiVincenzo is solid on both ends, Connaughton is solid and so is Tucker. The problem is Brook Lopez. His shooting isn’t what it was two years ago and he’s been far worse defensively. Last year he had a defensive rating of 100 and was All-Defensive Second Team. This year he’s been awful, with a defensive rating of 111. The Bucks should play Giannis at center or PJ Tucker because Lopez has been awful.
But the key for Giannis is creativity. Mike Budenholzer will run his system, which works in the regular season, in the playoffs, never making any adjustments. Good coaches like Spoelstra picked him apart last year in the playoffs, throwing so many different things at him while he never changed. He has to use Giannis in different ways. Play him at center, don’t use him as a guard, use him as a big. Put him on the baseline and let Holiday and Middleton be ball-handlers. Run Holiday & Giannis pick and rolls with Giannis as the screener. Put Giannis in the post. SOMETHING different to counteract the “wall up” defense that Miami perfected last year.
The Bucks have the talent. But coaching holds them back on offense but especially defense. The Bucks have some great defenders, but they have one big flaw. They can’t guard the 3-PT line, which is shocking. Jrue Holiday is widely regarded as the best perimeter defender in the league. Donte DiVincenzo is solid. Khris Middleton is versatile. Yet the Bucks are dead last in the league in 3-PT defense. They allow more makes than anybody (14.8) and teams shoot 38% from 3 against Milwaukee, which ranks 29th in the league.
The Bucks just pack the paint for some reason and teams burn them from 3. You saw this last year in the bubble. So for the love of god, don’t do that. Please. It’s simple. Like I said, using different lineups. Not using Brook Lopez as much, defending the 3-PT line, using Giannis differently. Mike Budenholzer has easily had two Finals caliber teams in the past two years, but his inability to change and adapt kept them short. This is the best team he’s had in the last 3 years, this is where you have to show some real results.
If he doesn’t adjust from his awful schemes, the Bucks aren’t going anywhere as long as he has the head coaching job.
Run It Back
The Heat got hit hard with injuries and Covid, but they still got a top 6 seed in the East and this is a matchup Miami likes, for all intents and purposes. The Heat dominated the Bucks last year, as their schemes were executed to perfection as they ran circles around the Bucks. The roster is a little thinner than it was last year, but the Heat look to achieve that same goal of knocking the contenders out of the playoffs.
Let’s talk about the offense, the weak-point off the team. The Heat don’t have the same explosiveness as they did last year. Jimmy Butler put up his usual 22 points without shooting 3’s. He did make 3’s in their 2nd round series last year, so he’s going to have to do the same. I really am expecting a 2020 Finals type series from Jimmy, they’re going to need him to do that. Bam Adebayo became much better offensively. He has developed a mid-range but he’s still mostly interior. He is one of the best passing big guys in the league and he will be a problem for Milwaukee Like Jimmy, most of his impact comes.
The hope for the Heat comes in their role players. The role guys were very inconsistent for the most part but they need them to come up big. Kenrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, and Trevor Ariza can all shoot and most of them can create off the dribble. Duncan Robinson might not even be shooting well on a given night but him running around screens is very tough to guard, especially for a Bucks team that cannot defend the 3-PT line. The Heat bench was in the bottom 10 of the league this year, so they’re going to need Tyler Herro and Dragic to turn back the clocks to one year ago in the playoffs.
For Herro that’s certainly possible, given that he has experience and he ended off the season well. Dragic showed signs of aging as after that foot injury in the Finals, he hasn’t been the same. If the Heat can get the Dragon back for the playoffs, it’ll be big for their chances.
While the offense wasn’t always great, the defense was. The Heat always had their stellar defense to fall back on and they’re going to have to do that again. The Heat defense has been so good this year, led by their two best players. Jimmy Butler is having an All-Defensive caliber season. 2.1 steals per game, which leads the league and a 108 defensive rating. I expect Butler to be all over the place, on Middleton, Holiday, and Giannis.
Bam is another very versatile defender. He’s not as big as other big guys but he’s quick and has great instincts. He averaged more than 1 steal and 1 block per game this year with a defensive rating of 108. He is their Giannis-Stopper. Last year he was great as walling up and he’s going to have to do that again.
But after those two, the defenders are few and far between. Trevor Ariza has been better than expected, but he’s 35 years old now. The Heat also have so many liabilities. If the Bucks are smart, they’ll target these people;
Duncan Robinson
Tyler Herro
Goran Dragic
Kendrick Nunn
All of those guys get regular minutes and they can’t defend. No more Jae Crowder means you lose a great defender from last year. The Heat personnel wise are less equipped to deal with the Bucks. Now with that being said, Erik Spoelstra is like Einstein compared to Mike Budenholzer. Expect lots of zone from the Heat and lots of changes. This should make the Bucks uncomfortable and it gives Miami a chance.
But I just look at all those defensive liabilities, 4 in case you weren’t paying attention. I don’t do if they can defend all that the Bucks have with all of these non defenders that will stick out like sore thumbs on this defense.
Series Predictions
There are a lot of different ways to look at this series. The Bucks bad coaching and great roster against the Heat’s excellent coaching and sub-par roster. It depends on how you weigh different aspects of the game but I am going with Milwaukee in 6 games. Mike Budenholzer is going to try and lose the series with his schemes and the Heat can probably win a couple of games but they just have so many problems that the Bucks can take advantage of them. I doubt Miami can recreate that same bubble Magic from last year.
Bucks Win 4-2
(Or the Bucks just implode again. That’s certainly possible.
#4 Atlanta Hawks vs #5 New York Knicks
Youth
The Hawks are one of the youngest teams in the league that have had success. Most young teams (like Charlotte) struggle under the spotlight. Perhaps the same might be true with the Hawks but I have a feeling it’s not going to be. Here’s why I feel like the Hawks have a chance to make some noise this postseason.
Offensively, after Nate McMillan took over, the Hawks were great. McMillan coached the Hawks for 38 games, where they went 27-11. Post All-Star Break, the Hawks had a top-10 offense and the 12th ranked defense. Nate McMillan knows how to use this team and he’s going to have to get creative in this series.
Trae Young had a superb season that went overlooked, but he was great. He’s so lethal in the pick and roll with either Capela or Collins, very inept at getting to the rim and drawing fouls, as well as shooting from deep. This means he’s getting the Damian Lillard treatment. He is going to get blitzed (likely) on almost every pick and roll. The Hawks run the 2nd most pick and rolls this season, getting 23 points from pick and rolls essentially all from Trae Young. So he’s going to have to adapt and just find the open guy, don’t force things. I expect this series to be less about Young and more about the other guys.
That philosophy starts with Bogdan Bogdanovic. The Hawks best free agent signing didn’t have the best start to the year. For starters he started the year with Lloyd Pierce, who we learned was the problem with the team. He also had a fracture in his right knee and he missed 20 games leading up to the All-Star break. After the All-Star break, he has been a absolute flamethrower. Here’s Post All-Star Bogdan:
18.7 points per game on 49% FG and 46% 3-PT shooting on 8 attempts per game. He was one of the best volume shooters in the league and he’s going to have to continue to bring that in the postseason.
John Collins and Capela are going to get more looks if Young gets blitzed. John Collins can extend his range to the 3-PT line which is a big help and a safety valve to Trae Young. Capela is a big-time lob threat but with Trae Young getting blitzed, he might have to settle for 2nd chance opportunities. Capela was the leading rebounder in the league and was the league’s leading offensive rebounder (4.7). He got an average 4.6 points per game on 2nd chance points. Pair that with his elite defense, Capela could do a lot of intangible things to give the Knicks problems.
Those 4 are the Hawks big guns. Kevin Huerter is a solid shooter but that’s about it. Danilo Gallinari hasn’t been that good this year, extremely inconsistent. De’Andre Hunter’s career year was sidelined with a knee injury that hasn’t left him the same player since his return. Cam Reddish has been hurt for most of the year, and Lou Williams still has chicken wing hangover. I am counting on the Hawks Big 4 to carry the offense.
Defensively the Hawks are solid. Trae Young is going to get picked on because of his size, that’s a given. The same goes for Huerter and Bogdanovic (likely) But the Hawks are solid overall defensively. Clint Capela is great down low and will be a problem. The Knicks surprisingly don’t score a lot down low but he’ll give them second guesses about even going down there. John Collins is solid and can move, I expect him to guard Julius Randle most of the time. He should try and funnel Randle towards Capela, not let him work in isolation too much.
The Knicks perimeter isn’t great outside of D-Rose and RJ Barrett. RJ Barrett is a great corner shooter, shooting 42% from 3 in those corners. You definitely want to stay on him. Clint Capela should make it tough for D-Rose to attack and I’m confident he can hold things down. The Knicks bench is explosive, with Quickley, D-Rose, and Burks. All 3 of those guys are dangerous, so the Hawks have to be careful.
The Knicks don’t turn it over often, but if the Hawks can force turnovers that would be big. The Knicks aren’t the best at grabbing the rebound, so like we talked about, Capela 2nd chance opportunities will be there. The Hawks definitely can take advantage of the Knicks defensively.
I like this matchup for the Hawks. Trae Young already puts so much pressure on a defense and with New York likely sending extra heat his way, it opens things up. The Hawks need their Big 4 to perform but more importantly they need their defense to come up big. The Knicks are only dangerous when they score the ball. If the Hawks do a relatively good job shutting down Randle and if Capela can lock down the paint and force New York to take jumpshots, the Hawks have a chance.
Not A Typo
Yes you read this right, the Knicks are in the playoffs. I actually predicted they would be the 10th seed this year and they even exceeded those expectations. The Knicks perfectly represent that grit and grind, New York style of basketball and some believe they could be dark horses in the East. Let’s see what all the talk is about.
The Knicks offense isn’t great but when they win it’s because of their offense. They’re only going as far as their offense will take them. They are led by Julius Randle, who was a first time All-Star this year and the future Most Improved Player award winner. Randle can score from anywhere. He shoots 41% from 3, is a solid mid-range shooter, and can bully you in the post. He also leads the Knicks in assists. Randle is likely going to be guarded by John Collins in this series and I imagine he wins that matchup.
RJ Barrett has been inconsistent but he has been a very good shooter this year. He became a 40% 3-PT shooter, mainly because he became a 42% 3-PT shooter from the corners. Don’t leave him open there. He is also good at getting to the rim. How much production the Knicks get from RJ will be key in this series.
The next chunk of scoring comes from the bench. This unit is Alec Burks, rookie Immanuel Quickley, and D-Rose. Now D-Rose should be starting instead of Elfrid Payton, but assuming he’s still on the bench means he’s part of this group. Since joining the Knicks, D-Rose has been great. He is very good at getting to the rim and he brings solid secondary play-making. He’ll be another key guy for them in the postseason.
Alec Burks missed a portion of the 2nd half of the year but he was a solid 13 ppg scorer for the Knicks off the bench. He can shoot and score from anywhere and he’s also an x-factor. Another surprise was Immanuel Quickley, the rookie from Kentucky who had some big games. Now I doubt Thibodeau plays the rookie too much in this series, but Quickley is instant offense. He could be another guy to look out for.
Other guys like Reggie Bullock are streaky shooters but that sums up the offense. The Knicks were 26th in scoring and 21st in FG%. They were 21st in 3-PT% as they aren’t very good shooting wise. Like I said, their offense isn’t great. But their defense is so good that it doesn’t matter. The Knicks just need their offense to be passable and their defense to do the rest.
The defense is thanks to Tom Thibodeau and a team effort. The Knicks don’t have a lot of guys who you would consider good defenders and yet they were one of the best defenses in the league, if not the best overall this season. The Knicks ranked #4 in defensive rating this year but they were stellar at all areas of defense;
#1 in Opponent FGM per game (37.9)
#1 in Opponent FG% (44%)
#1 in Opponent 3-PT% (34%)
#25 in Fouls per game (20.5)
So it’s tough to make shots against the Knicks, from anywhere really. They are stout on the perimeter and Nerlens Noel was one of the best interior defenders this season. The Knicks don’t foul much so don’t expect too many free throws. But with a defense like this, you would expect a lot of forced turnovers. But this defense becomes even more impressive when you see that the Knicks force 12.8 turnovers per game (23rd in the league).
So the Knicks don’t force many mistakes, they just play great, straight-up defense. They have the tools for this Hawks team. I expect a lot of double-teams and blitzes of Trae Young in the pick and roll. Get the ball out of his hands and on top of that make him work on the other end of the court. Make him defend. Bogdan Bogdanovic has been red hot in the 2nd half of the year and the Knicks have to cover him off screens and not leave him open on the perimeter.
John Collins is likely to be guarded by Randle and Randle can handle him. Collins is a good shooter so Randle is going to have to work on that end, covering up the lob threat that Collins is as well as getting out to him on the perimeter. Nerlens Noel averages 2.2 blocks and 1.1 steals per game in just 24 minutes per game. He had a defensive rating of 101 as he is going to be clogging the paint. He should do well against Capela but the real test are those lobs from Young to Collins or Capela. How well can Noel and the Hawks cover those up? We’ll see.
The Knicks defense is going to be their fall back in this series. It’s been great all year so there’s no reason to expect anything different here in the postseason.
Series Predictions
This is going to be the best series in the Eastern Conference. These teams are so close in talent and level of play and yet they are polar opposites. The run and gun Hawks against the grit and grind Knicks. I am leaning towards the Hawks just because of the offensive upside they have and the fact that New York’s offense isn’t consistent. But I am really excited for this series.
Hawks Win 4-3
Western Conference
#1 Utah Jazz vs #8 Memphis Grizzlies
Pretenders or Contenders?
I have not been on the Jazz train all year long, viewing several other Western Conference teams as better than them. Let’s see if they can prove me wrong. The Jazz offense is lots of movement and lots of 3’s. They have a lot of shooters and they get Donovan Mitchell back (likely) to start this series. Mitchell sometimes carries this offense but they need to be able to score without him on the floor or without him always getting the ball.
Conley and Bogdanovic have to be good in these playoffs for the Jazz to go far. The Jazz also have to not be so reliant on the 3-PT shot. Being too reliant on that shot is a very dangerous game as you could make 20 3’s one game and just 5 the other.
Defensively the Grizzlies thrive in the paint, but Rudy Gobert is in the way so I’m comfortable there. The Jazz should be able to contain Memphis, they aren’t anything special. The Jazz just have to pack and paint and make Memphis make 3’s, as many as they do, which is a very tough ask. This is a good tune up for Utah who looks for a deep playoff run.
Not The Warriors?
I literally already put the Warriors name in the title prematurely, but here’s Memphis. I doubt they do anything in this series, but making it here is impressive. The Jazz are a veteran team and Memphis young, almost no playoff experience on the roster.
The Grizzlies love to score in the paint but Gobert is in the way. So they’ll have to hit a healthy dose of 3’s and I don’t know if they can hit 13+ 3’s per game to win a series. Ja Morant has to be what he was against the Warriors, aggressive and taking what the defense gives you. Memphis is a lot more deep than the Jazz which is a plus.
Defensively, Dillon Brooks has to do a good job on Donovan Mitchell. The Jazz offense is not nearly as good when Mitchell isn’t involved, as they go to him a lot. Make other guys score, not Mitchell. Like they did in the Golden State game, the Grizzlies have to force turnovers and capitalize. The Jazz play at an average pace and if Memphis can speed up the game, that’s good.
But Morant and Brooks each played 45 minutes in the Warriors game and they are gassed, just one day of rest before the playoffs. Like I said, I doubt Memphis does much in this series.
Series Prediction
Utah should win this easily, would be surprising if Memphis even took a game.
Utah Wins 4-0
#2 Phoenix Suns vs #7 LA Lakers
Challenge
First of all, can be sympathize with the Suns here for a second? They went 8-0 in the bubble last year to miss the playoffs. They add Crowder and CP-3 and become the #2 seed in the West, their first playoff appearance in a decade. They have a real chance for the title with the West being wide open. Now they face the defending champs. Now that’s where my sympathy ends. Unlike most people, this series isn’t automatically over because the Lakers are the Lakers. Friendly reminder, the Suns are the Suns. They were the #2 seed for a reason.
Offensively the Suns are very good. They are efficient and they are dangerous. They are led by Devin Booker, one of the best pure scorers in the league. Booker is a mid-range assassin, with most of his damage being dealt there. He isn’t the best 3-PT shooter, which is weird because he shoots 54% from 10-16 feet. Very good at getting to the line and a solid passer. Booker is likely going to be guarded by guys like Caruso, KCP, maybe Schroder, and even Wesley Matthews. I trust D-Book in all those spots.
The floor general is Chris Paul, the POINT GAWD (capitalization is needed for emphasis). Paul isn’t much of a scorer as he’s a pass-first guy. But he is a master of the mid-range like Booker and a excellent clutch player. But his main thing is passing. He is so good at setting up guys like Bridges and Ayton. If Andre Drummond or Montrezl Harrell is on the floor, Chris Paul is going to attack them. Paul is their leader and he is going to lead them to any sort of playoff success.
The Suns have one of the best supporting casts in the league. Mikal Bridges is the model 3&D player. He is very good defensively and very smart. Good at timing cuts and shoots 44% from the corner on 3’s. Jae Crower shoots 39% from 3. Deandre Ayton doesn’t score as much as he should, but he’s excellent in the pick and roll and one of the best defensive centers in the league. The bench is even more talent. Dario Saric is such a good passer and small ball 5, giving the Suns even more ways to be creative offensively. Cameron Payne is good now (I know, right?). Cam Johnson shoots 43% from 3 in the corner. Torrey Craig is another 3&D wing.
The Suns are one of the deepest teams in the league. They are the #7 offense in the league in terms of offensive rating. #7 scoring offense, #2 in FG%, #7 in 3-PT%, #2 in FT%, and #4 in turnovers. The Suns don’t turn the ball over, making the most out of their possessions. They are very. very efficient. So as long as the Suns are able to not turn the ball over, they put themselves in a good place to win this series.
Defensively the Suns are also solid. They do matchup kind of well with the Lakers. Chris Paul is small but he is a veteran and one of the best defensive guys in the league. I expect the Lakers to target Paul a bit, but I trust he can hold his own. He should be guarding Schroder in this series and the veteran is going to likely hold his own.
Devin Booker is solid but he’s not exactly somebody that LA isn’t going to target. Booker should expect that he’ll be involved a lot more defensively than normal. To negate that, expect him to guard KCP. On the wings for Lebron, you have Mikal Bridges, Torrey Craig, and Jae Crowder.. Those are your only Lebron stoppers. Dario Saric has the size to do it, but I don’t know if he’s quick enough. Those 3 are going to have to close off Lebron driving lanes and make him a jump-shooter as much as possible. Lebron not being at 100% does help a bit. The goal should just be to make Lebron uncomfortable, if that’s even possible.
Deandre Ayton is quick and athletic, so he can stay with AD on the perimeter. I don’t know if he bang with AD down low in the post but I don’t think he’ll be that bad down low. The Suns will likely send some double teams to make AD pass the ball out but for the most part, I expect it to be Ayton and Davis on an island. I don’t know if I love that matchup but we’ll see what the Suns do. I just know if Ayton can make AD uncomfortable enough to take him out of the game.
The rest of the Lakers are streaky. Guys like Drummond and Harrell are paint beasts, Gasol can stretch the floor, THT and Kuzma are looking to score, and KCP is a shooter. The Suns bench should be able to handle those guys.
The Suns were a top 6 defense this year, specializing in defending the 3-PT line, where they ranked 5th in opponent 3-PT%. You don’t get many offensive rebounds against the Suns, which limits 2nd chance opportunities. The Suns are also very good at not fouling as you aren’t going to get fouled by them (we’ll see about that ;).
The Suns aren’t exactly a great matchup for the Lakers but they aren’t at a loss. They gave guys for AD and Lebron and they have bench depth that the Lakers don’t have. Offensively the Suns are so efficient and defensively they are fundamentally sound. The Suns are very good, don’t get it twisted.
Here We Go
It was an interesting and expensive road for LA to get here, but here they are (that was a joke, chill). But here are the defending champs. While their last title was the 3rd weakest since the 1984 season, according to SRS, the Lakers are certainly going to have a tougher task than last year. How will they fare?
Offensively the Lakers have their star players back but it’ll take some time to get their legs back. Lebron is Lebron but how often will he have a first half like he did against Golden State? How many times will he had a second half like he did against Golden State? It all depends on that ankle. If it’s bothering him, he can’t explode as well and he looks off. The Lakers need the closest thing to a healthy LBJ to win a title.
But while Lebron is unlikely to be fully healthy during any point of this title run, AD is the key. AD has looked good and bad since returning from injury but he looked awful against a physical defender like Draymond Green. But Draymond Green is likely the best defender AD was going to face this postseason, as it all gets easier from here. AD has to play center in this series, because his versatility makes him perfect for that role, no matter if he wants to play it or not. AD is a lethal player like we saw in the bubble, but he can’t just settle for outside shots. He had to attack the middle and put pressure on a defense. He also has to stay healthy, which is easier said than done.
Dennis Schroder is going to have to be better than he was against the Warriors. Not only did he shoot 3/14 from the field, Dennis Schroder didn’t even play down the stretch. This can’t happen if LA wants to be great in the postseason. Schroder is going to have a challenge guarding/getting guarded by CP-3. If he can’t make him uncomfortable in the pick and roll, LA will have problems. He has to hit some outside shots and attack the rim. Schroder has shown the ability to fit next to AD and Lebron, let’s see if he’s up to the task on his first contending team.
The Lakers supporting cast started as one of the strongest in the league. Now it looks kind of thin. Harrell and Drummond are so bad defensively down low that they shouldn’t be getting minutes. AD and Gasol are the only passable options down low and even then I don’t know useful Gasol can be in this series against the athletic Ayton and a small ball center like Saric. It might just have to be AD at center. Guys like Kuzma and THT are pretty good scorers but aren’t great defenders. Caruso might be the 6th man. He saved LA in the Golden State play-in game and his defensive hustle + fit with Lebron make him valuable.
KCP has been solid all year and while Wesley Matthews hasn’t played much all year, he showed his grit in the Warriors game in the 4th. If he does more of that in the postseason, he’ll be valuable. The only bench guys who should be getting consistent minutes are Caruso and Kuzma, maybe guys like THT. I don’t LA can survive playing Drummond and Harrell minutes.
While the Lakers offense is shaky and very star reliant, their defense is excellent. It was the reason they stayed somewhat stable when everybody was out with injuries. Their defense is the best and most physical in the league. If they’re going to win, it’s because of their defense.
Here’s the Lakers defense;
#1 in Defensive Rating (106.8)
#8 in Opponent FG% (46%)
#3 in Opponent 3-PTM (11.4)
#4 in Opponent 3-PT% (35%)
#2 in Opponent OREB (8.8)
#4 in Opponent Turnovers (15.2)
#2 in Opponent PPG (106.8)
#2 in Opponent 2nd Chance Points (11.3)
Yeah, it’s good. The Lakers can do it all. They can defend the 3-PT line, they limit your 2nd chance opportunities and they force turnovers. It’s hard to score against this defense. If you want to beat LA, you have to go through this defense.
On the perimeter they have solid options. Dennis Schroder is similar to Chris Paul because he’s very quick and aggressive. He will have his hands full with CP-3 on the perimeter. KCP, Wesley Matthews, and Alex Caruso are also all good perimeter defenders. The Suns have a lot of fire-power coming from Booker and Paul, so expect a lot of guys guarding those two. Maybe they guard guys like Bridges, Craig, or Crowder, but they’re likely on the perimeter. The Lakers need to try and control Booker and Paul and not let them run wild.
Down low, the Lakers only have one guy I trust, Anthony Davis. AD doesn’t like to play center but LA is so good with him at center. He can switch in the pick and rolls and he is just such a problem. The Lakers others centers like Drummond, Harrell, and Gasol aren’t good options. Gasol is good for 10-15 minutes, but don’t give minutes to Drummond or Harrell. They are just liabilities on defense.
Vogel didn’t play Drummond in the 4th quarter of the Warriors game and they won. Drummond packs in the paint and it gives so much less room from everybody. At least Vogel is smart enough to see it. A team with guards like Booker and Paul are going to attack if Harrell and Drummond are on the floor. So it should be small ball, AD at the 5, or at the very worst, Marc Gasol.
I don’t know how much guys like Kuzma, THT, Morris, and McLemore play. McLemore offers shooting but Kuzma and THT aren’t exactly great defenders. Morris is a solid veteran who started in the playoffs last year. I don’t know what the Lakers rotation is looking like now, but it’ll be interesting to see who they play and how much.
The Lakers defense is their backbone and it’s a tough task trying to shutdown the Suns. They are very good but the Lakers have guys who are up for the task. The limited big guy depth does scare me but AD is center is a scary sight. The Lakers have to make guys like Booker and Paul uncomfortable and force turnovers. The offense is hot and cold but the Lakers obviously have James and Davis. So when all goes wrong, they still have those two. They need those two to be what they were last year in the postseason. This will be quite the test for the defending champs, who are trying to become the lowest seed to ever win a title.
Series Predictions
This series is going to be good but it’s hard not to go with LA. They have that ability to be so dominant and it feels like it’s the Suns first time here compared to the seasoned Lakers. This is going to be another great series but I am going with the Lakers in this one.
Lakers Win 4-3
#3 Denver Nuggets vs #6 Portland Trail Blazers
Revenge
The 2019 series was an instant classic, with Denver losing a game 7 at home after leading by 7. This team is a lot different but they have the MVP on their side as they look to avenge the loss from two years ago and form another deep playoff run.
The Denver offense took a hit with Jamal Murray going down with a torn ACL that ended his season, but Denver didn’t miss a beat. Murray missed the final 18 games of the season. The Nuggets offense was still good. They went 13-5 in that stretch thanks to Jokic and MPJ who are going to be great for Denver to win. 11 of those 18 games were against teams above 0.500, so Denver is still a good team without Jamal Murray.
Let’s start with Jokic, the most unique center we’ve seen in a while. He doesn’t look like an MVP, no offense. Slow-footed, can’t jump over a dime, and he looks like he just woke up all the time. Yeah, this isn’t the guy you expect to be having one of the greatest offensive seasons ever. Jokic can do it all. He averaged 11 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 26 points overall. He’s also one of the most efficient guys in the league.
57% FG shooting, 39% 3-PT shooting, and 87% free throw shooting. His true shooting percentage is 65%, which is insanely high for somebody who has the ball as much as he does. Jokic is one of the best mid-range threats in the league. From 16 feet to the 3-PT line, he shoots 53%. From 10-16 feet, he shoots 48%. From 3-10 feet, he shoot 57%. From 0-3 feet, he shoots 75%.
Jokic is a very good jump-shooter and post player. He is very physical and has those little flips and hooks that are extremely effective. He is very good in the post when he guys to survey the floor and make a pass to a cutter or open shooter. He is so impossible to guard and as much as I hate to say it, Portland can’t stop him. So Jokic is going to be a problem.
Jokic has been great in the playoffs. Somebody who has to be great is Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets let go Jerami Grant to let MPJ blossom and without Murray, he’s been out of this planet;
In 18 Games W/O Jamal Murray To End The Season;
23.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 56% shooting, 49% 3-PT shooting, 85% FT shooting.
MPJ is such a good shooter and he’s gotten better with shot selection. He is great at drifting around the perimeter, waiting for a perfect pass from Jokic. He’s also gotten better with off-ball movement, cutting to the rim. Defense is still a problem but Denver needs big things from the 22 year old this postseason.
Everybody else are role players. Aaron Gordon is a solid wing defender who can also work as a cutter. Will Barton is likely to return at some point in this series, as he provides some scoring relief. Campazzo is the small, 29-year old rookie who doesn’t do much scoring wise, but he’s a solid passer and a pest defensively.
Monte Morris is one of the best backup guards in the league, good passer and great at avoiding turnovers. Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green are both stretch bigs, although Millsap is getting older and worse on defense so expect more Green. Austin Rivers is streaky offensively, and PJ Dozier is a good defender.
But the offense relies on Jokic and MPJ. MPJ has to play like he did to end the year. Jokic is unguardable and he’s going to set up everyone else. Denver is very a very efficient team, top-10 in both FG% and 3-PT%. They are a great at capitalizing off mistakes. They are 7th in points off turnovers and #6 in 2nd chance points. They are also top-10 in paint scoring. The offense isn’t the worry. Defense is.
The Nuggets have struggled on defense this year at times and they are average at best. The Blazers do some things that pose a problem to Denver. Let’s start with Dame.
It takes a whole team effort to shut down Dame and I don’t know if Denver has the personnel for him. Who you do put on him? Campazzo is aggressive but he’s smaller. Aaron Gordon is solid but it would be a very tough ask. Maybe PJ Dozier? The options aren’t exactly ideal. The Nuggets might have to do the blitz strategy, but that only works with an athletic big/wing. Maybe it’s Gordon and Campazzo. I doubt Jokic has the lateral quickness to stay with Dame out there. Defense on the Letter 0 will be interesting to see.
The Nuggets don’t have a lot of perimeter options for CJ and Norman Powell. I don’t know what the starting lineup looks like but they can’t cover Dame, CJ, and Powell. Not well at least. Jokic is going to get picked on. They are going to involve Nurkic in the pick and roll early, making sure to make him work. Nurkic is one of the best pick and roll bigs, so Jokic is going to have to work. I don’t know if Denver can defend all that Portland has to offer.
Like Jokic, MPJ is going to be targeted on defense. The Nuggets bench doesn’t have defensive stoppers save Dozier. Can the Nuggets stick with the Blazers in isolation? Denver is a solid 3-PT defense, ranking 11th in opponent 3-PT%. Denver is a little foul-prone which isn’t a good sign. If Denver can’t slow down Dame in the pick and roll and they can’t contain him, they will have major problems.
Denver is very good at limiting 2nd chance points. They don’t want Enes Kanter grabbing a lot of rebounds down low and giving Portland more chances. Denver also has to try and force turnovers. Portland again led the league in turnovers, as they simply don’t turn the ball over, which means they also led the league in opponent points off turnovers. Denver will have to force turnovers, something they’re ok at. Playing aggressive defense is how they do that.
I just don’t know how Denver matches up with Portland and I’m not being biased. The Nuggets have some guys but I don’t know how they can shut down Portland. It is possible, Portland’s offense isn’t complex and thrives off All-Stars making plays. But if Denver can’t stop the Blazers, they might be in for a long series on that end, making what Jokic does on offense meaningless if they can’t get stops.
Play Your Game
As a Blazers fan, the playoffs are no stranger. Success is. Portland’s one good year was 2019, where they came back from a 17-point deficit in Game 7 to win that series. That series also had that 4OT classic. That series was good. Portland is a team that has been getting hot at the right time and they face a tough task with the Nuggets.
Offense has always been the strength of Blazers teams and this year is no different. Dame was Dame, but I think they need to use him more off ball. Him continually doing pick and rolls isn’t going to work. Work him off ball or work him in isolation. Make the defense come to him instead of just letting a 2nd defender come right up to him. Dame has underperformed in the playoffs, but if he’s schemed right, he’s dangerous. I don’t know what Coach Stotts is planning to do, but something different, please. It’ll make us a lot more dangerous to guard.
The key for Portland, as usual, is their support. On paper this is the best supporting cast Dame has had in years. Starting with CJ McCollum, who is having a career-year. He’s a natural scorer, he just needs to take good shots. Norman Powell ended the year well. He’s the best corner shooter in the league, shooting 53% on corner 3’s. He ended the year well because he figured out how to work with Dame and CJ. He is a great catch and shoot shooter and I like him off the dribble.
After the Nurkic leg injury in 2019, he was never the same, mainly due to more injuries. But for the first time since that 2018-19 season, he looked like himself to end the year. Here’s what he did in the last 14 games;
15.1 points and 11.5 rebounds with 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks on 56% shooting.
Nurkic is going to be key in making Jokic work in the pick and roll with his rolls to the rim. He has to make Jokic work, get a couple of fouls on him, that sort of thing. The Blazers didn’t have Nurkic last time these two teams met in the postseason. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares with the MVP.
The role players and bench for Portland are capable of doing things, but in this series, where Denver’s bench is nothing special, they don’t have to do much. Robert Covington is mostly defense, likely guarding MPJ or maybe Aaron Gordon. But he shot 42% from 3 after the All-Star break. He does that in this series, it makes it harder for Denver to pressure Dame. Enes Kanter ranked 3rd in both offensive rebounds and 2nd chance points. The Nuggets are good at securing rebounds but if Kanter can create 2nd chance opportunities, he’s valuable and his awful defense is hidden a bit.
Anfernee Simons shoots above 40% from 3 and then there’s Carmelo Anthony. Sometime he’s very good and sometimes he’s very bad. I want him to take more shots in the flow, less isolation shots. His defense isn’t great so I do not want to see him out there in late game situations. He should be used for like 10-15 minutes at the most. Maybe more if he’s playing well. Derrick Jones Jr. also needs more minutes. Don’t get why he wasn’t getting minutes, we need all the defense we can get.
Defensively I’m not going over much. Portland struggles defensively and I don’t know if their improved defense to end the year helps anything. They can’t defend the 3-PT line at all and Jokic is a nightmare matchup. My suggestion would be to make Jokic a scorer. Make Jokic score the ball instead of being a passer. Don’t double him often, just stick with everybody else and make him a scorer. Jokic as a passer is much tougher than Jokic as a scorer.
Roco should probably guard MPJ because of his size, but he’s so good as a roamer. Guarding Aaron Gordon makes him more valuable but I think that he should try and slow down MPJ, who is the key in the series. Portland doesn’t have many defenders for MPJ other than him and DJJ, so Roco will have to be at his best on that end.
Portland knows how to play well, they ended the year strong. They have the pieces and Denver can’t guard all of them. It’s time to show up in the playoffs and do some damage. The defense got better to end the year and you saw this team with an explosive offense and a defense that ranked 12th in the final 12 games of the season. This is a matchup that Portland can win. It’s time to show up.
Series Predictions
This series is going to be very close, but I am going with Portland (totally not biased). Portland has a lot of weapons and more weapons to deal with Dame blitzes. Denver doesn’t have defenders to guard everything Portland has to offer on the perimeter and Portland can’t stop Jokic, merely slow him down at best. This series will be about whose stars show up and I just feel like Portland has more weapons. This should be a good series, nonetheless.
Portland Wins 4-3
#4 LA Clippers vs #5 Dallas Mavericks
Not Again, Please
Last year I went all in on the Clippers to win the title. Yeah, that worked out well. LA’s meltdown in the bubble was well documented to chemistry problems. But they played this Dallas team and without Porzingis for almost the entire series in the first round, and LA struggled to beat them. The Mavs are healthy and ended the year on a hot streak. The Clippers are going to have to be ready for this fight.
Offensively, the Clippers had one of the best and most efficient seasons of all-time. They ranked #10 in points, #5 in FG%, #1 in 3-PT%, and #1 in FT%. Yeah, they’re good offensively. They’re led by Kawhi Leonard, who quietly had a very good season. Leonard is known as the playoff performer on this team and just like last year, Dallas doesn’t have anybody who can really guard him. Expect a big series from the Klaw.
But here is the key, the x-factor. Paul George started off very hot, injured his toe and slowed down a bit, but in the last 20 games of the season he was averaging nearly 25 points per game on 45% shooting. George is one of the most talented wings in the league. Earlier on his career with Indiana, he was great in the playoffs. I really hope that bubble ordeal was simply because of the bubble, because LA is only going far if George is playing well.
The Clippers role players are good. Marcus Morris is a good shooter (47% from 3) and another wing scorer. Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, and Terrence Mann are all good scorers too. Hope they all get minutes. DeMarcus Cousins wasn’t half bad in this late season stretch with the Clippers and Rondo was superb. His playmaking really helped this team and I’m excited to see what playoff Rondo can do. Serge Ibaka can stretch the floor and Ivica Zubac shoots 73% in the paint. Nicolas Batum also helps with the playmaking and is another wing defender.
Offensively, I’m not worried. The Clippers are very deep and they added playmakers like Batum and Rondo to make the offense less isolation-centric. The Mavs simply don’t have the bodies to guard all that LA has to offer, they just have to not chuck up shots with Kawhi and PG. They’ll need good ball movement and player movement, because that was something they lacked last year. Defensively the Clippers are a lot better also than they were last year.
LA had the 8th best defense in the league this season, specializing in limiting 3-pointers and not fouling you. You don’t get 2nd chance points against LA, you don’t get many points off turnovers, and their paint defense is solid, getting even better with Ibaka returning for the playoffs.
Luka Doncic in the playoffs is a different breed, as we saw last year. Kawhi and PG have to try and slow him down. I mean you can put Marcus Morris on him, but rotate between Beverley, Kawhi, PG, and Morris. Luka figured out Morris last year and dominated. Give him different looks, keep him on his toes, double him. Anything but what you did last year.
Kawhi and PG are really good and so is Morris on the wing. Beverley and Rondo on the perimeter is tough and with Zubac and Ibaka down low, LA has defenders at every level. They have to make more of a team effort to make other guys make shots, not Doncic. Doncic is a much better player than he was last year and the only reason this series is going to be close is if the Clippers don’t contain Doncic. Interesting to see how the Clippers try and contain the 22 year old phenom.
This Clippers team is very good. They have offensive weapons and much more playmaking to make it less about Kawhi and PG. They are very efficient and defensively they have guys everywhere. This is a very good team. Now it’s time to see if they can perform when it counts the most.
Luka Magic
The Mavs had a up and down year. At one point they were 9-14 at one point and 14th in the West. Luka Doncic was out of shape and shot less than 10% from 3 to start the year. Porzingis was still working his way back from injury, it was a mess if you couldn’t already tell. But Doncic got going, Porzingis got healthy, and the Mavs rolled their way all the way to the 5th seed, where they meet a familiar opponent.
The offense is always going to be covered when you have Luka Doncic. Doncic is a superstar, so crafty for just being 22 years old. He’s become a better 3-PT shooter than last year and his playmaking is off the charts. Expect more physical play from LA, like they did last year. Doncic just has to keep his cool and not get frustrated, which he tends to do. Doncic is going to be the catalyst for the Mavs and with his performances from last year, I have no doubt he can do it. But can he get the help he needs?
Porzingis missed most of that series last year against LA with that knee injury. But he’s back and healthy this season and he needs to be big. Porzingis needs to use his size to his advantage and get in the post. He did that a bit more this season and toned it down on the 3’s, which is a good thing. Porzingis is still very good and while defensively he’s not the best, if he brings his A game offensively, Dallas can make this a series.
The bench and role guys also play a big part. Dorian Finney-Smith is going to have his hands full defensively, but he was great offensively to end the year. He shot 43% from 3 after the All-Star Break. He’s going to get open kick outs from Luka, likely in the the corners where 44% of his 3-PT attempts come from. If he hits those, it becomes harder to collapse on Doncic.
Tim Hardaway is a very streaky bench scorer. He has all the tools to be good he has the ultimate green light, similar to a guy like Jordan Clarkson. Not exactly the best thing sometimes. In wins he averages 17 points on 46% shooting from the field and 40% from 3. In losses he scores 15 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 37% from 3, a clear decline in stats. So Hardaway is going to have to be good off the bench scoring wise and provide some relief to the Mavs star duo.
Maxi is likely to return in time for Game 1, which is a big time addition back to the lineup. He’s a solid defender and works well with Luka. He shoots 41% from 3, it’s good to have him back to stretch the defense out. Jalen Brunson (aka my favorite non-star in the NBA) is also another key guy off the bench. Brunson took another step this year, becoming one of the best bench players in the league.
Brunson is one of the best backups in the league, with his passing ability and able to control the floor without Doncic on the floor. He is very efficient, 52% shooting from the field and 40% from 3 along with 80% from the line. He is not a scorer by nature but Dallas is going to need all the help they can get.
The offense is pretty simple. Give the ball to Luka and let him operate. No matter what LA throws at him he’s still one of the best players in the league. Dallas needs big-time stuff from KP and their bench to stand a chance in this series. Defensively is going to be a challenge.
On the wings Dallas doesn’t have the bodies to cover the LA wings. Luka is likely going to have to guard a wing which is a very tough ask. Dorian Finney-Smith can only do so much. The Clippers are going to target Porzingis and Doncic a lot, hoping to tire them out by playing on both ends. I don’t have much hope for Dallas defensively, even if they have gotten better from last season. I doubt they can slow down LA.
Series Prediction
This is going to be another good series, some very good players in this series, good storylines from last year. It will be competitive, tough, and physical, just what you want in a playoff series. But LA has the better roster and defense and Dallas is relying so heavily on role players stepping up that it’s a flaw. They can steal a game or two with Doncic on their side, but I doubt they win this series.
LA Wins 4-2
2nd Round Matchups Predictions (East)
#1 Philadelphia 76ers vs #4 Atlanta Hawks
#2 Brooklyn Nets vs #3 Milwaukee Bucks
2nd Round Matchups Predictions (West)
#1 Utah Jazz vs #4 LA Clippers
#2 Phoenix Suns vs #6 Portland Trail Blazers
What Are Your Predictions For The First Round? Leave A Comment Down Below!
Follow My Instagram To Never Miss A Post: @hoopnotions
