The Biggest Winners and Losers From Free Agency
The madness of free agency is basically over and now I think it’s time we declare some winners and losers. Now, this is just from free agency, the draft is not included in this at all. This is just from free agency, with some teams doing a great job adding/keeping talent and other teams, not doing the same. Yeah, let’s put it that way.
So here are my winners and losers from NBA Free Agency.
New Orleans Pelicans – Losers
I think this one speaks for itself. With reports that Zion Williamson, their franchise superstar being unhappy, the Pelicans needed to act fast this offseason to transform their dysfunctional roster into being a playoff team. They made changes, but they didn’t really make strides. Getting Willie Green as a head coach certainly helps, but did they really give their new coach any help?
They allowed Lonzo Ball to leave literally 5 minutes after free agency starters, which I think will be the clear cut wrong decision down the line. He fit incredibly well with Zion and with his strides as a 3-PT shooter? He should still be on the Pelicans, giving Zion all the lob passes he wants. Their replacement for Ball? Devonte’ Graham. Graham is decent, but he’s not a good defender at all and he can’t score at the rim because of his lack of size
Graham now being the starter for New Orleans is a downgrade from Lonzo Ball. They did add Jonas Valanciunas, which helps with their spacing They got a wing, Trey Murphy III, in the draft, and they got Temple and Satoransky from the Lonzo Ball trade.
But is all of that really enough? They upgraded the bench a bit but they still don’t have crazy amounts of shooting. There are still a lot of questions with this team. Who is going to start at shooting guard? Is Josh Hart coming back? How do you maximize the floor spacing for Zion? Is the defense going to be better? There are still so many questions with this team that we just don’t know how to answer as of right now.
But, the Pelicans have to hope all the moves they made this offseason work, because they just need them to. Otherwise, why should Zion be forced to stay in one of the smallest markets in the NBA which consistently ranks near the bottom in attendance? For the Pelicans sake, this offseason has to work, otherwise it’ll be like the Anthony Davis situation once again.
New York Knicks – Winners
The New York Knicks, in my opinion, didn’t have the best draft night. They traded away one of their first round picks and at pick #25, they didn’t address their needs for a PG. But in free agency, they completely washed away that poor draft and they look like one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference.
First, they re-signed their key role players that made them great last season. Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Derrick Rose all got 3-year deals to return. Rose and Burks bring much needed offense and Nerlens Noel is a great defensive center. Those 3 guys coming back is huge for the Knicks. But Leon Rose wasn’t done yet.
The Knicks signed Evan Fournier to a big, 4yr/$78 million dollar deal. Some people called this an overpay, but it’s really not. Since the 2016-17 NBA season, Fournier has been doing this;
17 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 38% from 3 on 6 attempts per game
He has been a great scorer for 5 seasons now, with the ability to shoot off the catch, but most importantly, he can create on his own. That’s something the Knicks didn’t have last year and Fournier should provide a lot of that. He was a very good signing, one that should help the Knicks a lot over the next few seasons.
With those 4 moves, I thought the Knicks had done a great job. But they still needed that point guard. Well, they solved that problem too. Kemba Walker and OKC agreed to buy out his contract, making him a free agent. He then turned around and signed with the Knicks, his hometown team. Walker has been struggling with injuries these past few seasons, but on a good day, he’s a very good scorer from all 3 levels and gives the Knicks more shot creation.
So with the draft and free agency, this is what the Knicks rotation could look like next season:
Kemba Walker (S)
Evan Fournier (S)
RJ Barrett (S)
Julius Randle (S)
Mitchell Robinson (S)
Immanuel Quickley (B)
Obi Toppin (B)
Nerlens Noel (B)
Derrick Rose (B)
Quintin Grimes (B+R)
Miles McBride (B+R)
Alec Burks (B)
That’s a very good team. They have defense, a defense that should be very good once again under Tom Thibodeau. They added a lot of offense with the additions of Fournier and Walker and they have some young talent with guys like IQ, Toppin, Grimes, and McBride. This team is young and exciting. There is only one thing left to do, re-sign Julius R-
They re-signed Randle. The perfect offseason for the Knicks has been completed. Randle is getting paid $21.8 million for the 2021-22 season and he would have become a free agent after this season. But now, he’s locked up long-term. He signed a 4yr/$117.09 million dollar contract to stay in New York. The All-Star is staying and the Knicks’ free agency period is complete.
They added a lot of offense and brought back a lot key players. They have youth, veterans, excellent coaching, defense, and finally, some offense. Look out for the Knicks this upcoming season, they’re going to be very good.
Miami Heat – Winners
The Miami Heat’s 2020-21 season was….weird. Injuries and Covid held them back. but even then, we expected big things from them in the first round against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Heat had humiliated the Bucks in the Bubble and some people expected the same thing this time around. Instead Miami was swept (yes swept), and Pat Riley clearly wasn’t happy. So he decided to take out his anger and have a very busy offseason.
That all started with the Kyle Lowry sign-and-trade. Goran Dragic was aging, declining, and expensive, not a great combo for an NBA player. Lowry is still an elite player, so the Heat made a move. It cost 2020 first round pick Precious Achiuwa, but it’s such a major upgrade over Dragic. Lowry is still a great defender and his offense is solid. I think Lowry makes the Heat a lot better and he fits with what they have currently very well.
The Heat also gave Jimmy Butler a questionable max extension, but to be fair, they didn’t really have any other choice. But paying Butler $50.3 million dollars at age 36 (during the 2025-26 season), isn’t exactly ideal. But it is what it is.
Then, the Heat prioritized re-signing Duncan Robinson. Robinson wasn’t great in 2021, going down to just a 41% 3-PT shooter, which is just terrible. Robinson is such a weapon with his shooting and off-ball movement. He fits incredibly well with Bam Adebayo and provides elite spacing. 5yrs/$90 million for Robinson? Seems like it’s worth it for Miami.
But the Heat made some more surprising additions. They signed veteran forward Markieff Morris for cheap, trying to fill the holes left by the departing Ariza and Iguodala. But perhaps the most surprising signing this offseason was PJ Tucker. Tucker was a starter for the Bucks, a key reason to why they won the NBA title. But then, he just left, to take his talents to South Beach.
Tucker is an elite defender and his contract, 2yrs/$15 million, is incredibly team friendly. He did about as good a job as you can possibly do while trying to guard Kevin Durant and makes that defense even better. The Heat also re-signed guys like Dewayne Dedmon and Victor Oladipo, so they’re looking pretty good entering next season.
Miami Heat 2021-22 Projected Rotation:
Kyle Lowry (S)
Duncan Robinson (S)
Jimmy Butler (S)
PJ Tucker (S)
Bam Adebayo (S)
Tyler Herro (B)
Victor Oladipo (B)
Dewayne Dedmon (B)
Max Strus (B)
Gabe Vincent (B)
The Heat got a lot tougher and better this offseason. Their starting 5 looks a lot better and their defense should be absolutely elite next season with their bevy of veterans. The Heat are looking like a solid tier-2 Eastern Conference team, a team that should be around the 4-6 seed range in the East. They are definitely a sleeper team entering 2022 and they should be viewed as a threat in the East.
San Antonio Spurs – Losers
The San Antonio Spurs took a big risk, taking Joshua Primo, the youngest player in the draft, with the 12th overall pick in the NBA Draft. That was risky for a team needing a direction, but this free agency period has been even weirder. The Spurs are getting weirder, not better, and it may be time to blow things up.
They signed Zach Collins for 3 years, $22 million. Look, as a Blazers fan, I love Zach Collins and his goofy dances as much as the next guy. But he’s been so injury prone. He only played 11 games in 2019-20 and then he didn’t play at all this past season. So while he has potential to be a stretch big who is a good shot-blocker, but this is very risky.
They signed Doug McDermott to a 3 year deal worth $42 million dollars. Why? Nothing against Doug McDermott, but that doesn’t make sense. McDermott is 29 and isn’t going to become some crazy good player. He was really good in Indiana because he had Sabonis and Brogdon, two good playmakers. The Spurs don’t exactly have that, so I find it hard to believe that he’s worth the amount of money that they gave him.
They got back Thaddeous Young and Al-Farouq Aminu in the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade. At least they got something, but both Young and Aminu are older wings entering the final year of their contracts. At least the Spurs got one first round pick out of that.
They lost guys like Patty Mills and Rudy Gay to contending teams and signed Bryn Forbes and Australian center Jack Landale in return.
The Spurs still don’t have a direction, they have their foot in the rebuilding door and the trying to win door. But they just have to choose one, with my preference being the rebuilding door. I think that they need to tank and center themselves around Dejounte Murray and Keldon Johnson. They need a generation superstar to anchor them, that likely coming in the form of the draft.
These moves for Collins and McDermott are futile attempts to remain somewhat relevant. At best they make the play-in but they’re likely not going to make the playoffs. The Spurs should just stop going in circles, bite the bullet, and rebuild.
Dennis Schroder – Loser
Dennis Schroder was offered a 4yr/$84 million dollar extension with the Lakers midway through the 2020-21 season. A pretty big contract offer, but Schroder said no, as he bet on himself. Not the worst decision in the world, barring something crazy. Schroder was a talented scorer, a quality player who some team would pay in free agency.
Something crazy happened. Schroder didn’t live up to LA’s expectations, as he didn’t fit well with the Lakers and he couldn’t be that reliable 2nd option when AD was injured. That eventually led to the Lakers trading for superstar point guard Russell Westbrook, all but ending Schroder’s short tenure in Hollywood.
It’s currently Day 4 of NBA free agency and Schroder has gotten no buzz, no reports of him going anywhere. He’s likely going to sign a small one year deal, certainly a downgrade from what the Lakers offered him midway through the season. At best, he gets a 2-3 year deal for like $8-10 million per year, at best. But I don’t think that’s going to happen, so I find it very interesting to see where Schroder goes.
He went from being locked up in LA long-term to now, where he can’t even find a team. He apparently wanted a 5 year deal in the $120 million dollar range, which is just kind of crazy. But now it looks like he won’t be signing that big of a deal and he’ll be relegated to a one year deal. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Chicago Bulls – Winners
I think the Bulls made the biggest changes to their team. The Bulls had been in the basement of the Eastern Conference for the past 5 seasons or so, not really adding talent. Draft picks like Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr, and Coby White really haven’t worked out. Zach Lavine is excellent but it was time to make moves. Artūras Karnišovas complied to such notions.
It started during the March trade deadline, when the Bulls shipped off two first round picks and Wendell Carter Jr to Orlando. Carter was a lottery pick during the 2018 NBA Draft and the Bulls sent off two first round picks, including their 2021 first round pick, which ended up being the 8th overall pick. For all that they gave up, they swung a move for All-Star center Nikola Vucevic, finally giving Zach Lavine a competent running mate.
While the Bulls didn’t make the playoffs, it was a step in the right direction. Artūras Karnišovas was trying to make the Bulls, the Bulls. He wanted them to once again be a big market team, a free agent hotspot. I think it’s safe to say that he has achieved that and then some this offseason.
Within minutes of free agency starting, the Bulls made a move to acquire Lonzo Ball from the Pelicans. The sign-and-trade deal sent Tomas Satoransky to New Orleans, really the only good asset that the Bulls gave up in this move. Lonzo is young and they gave him a 4-year deal. He can now shoot and he is already a very good passer and defender. The Bulls desperately needed a floor general at point guard and they got that and then some. But Artūras still wasn’t done yet, he still had moves to make.
A few hours later, a move was made to sign Alex Caruso to a 4-year deal. I do think this is a little bit of an overpay (4yrs/$37 million), but Caruso shot 40% from 3 last year and he’s a great defender. He knows his role and should be a very good backup to Lonzo Ball. But guess what, baby? Artūras Karnišovas does not care about anything, he wants to go for the jugular. On August 3rd, he did just that.
The Bulls sent away Thagic Johnson (god bless Stacey King), Al-Farouq Aminu, and yet another future first round pick for All-Star forward DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan’s departure from San Antonio was written on the wall and again, the only real asset the Bulls gave up was the first rounder. Both Young and Aminu are expiring contracts, entering the final year of their deal, so there was no guarantee that both of those guys would be back long term.
So now, the Bulls added Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan, and Alex Caruso, all in a matter of days. Lauri Markkanen is going to be gone in a couple of days and the same might be true about Coby White. Excluding those two guys for now, here is the Bulls new and improved rotation for 2021-22
Bulls Projected 2021-22 Rotation
Lonzo Ball (S)
Zach Lavine (S)
DeMar DeRozan (S)
Patrick Williams (S)
Nikola Vucevic (S)
Alex Caruso (B)
Troy Brown Jr. (B)
Ayo Dosunmu (B+R)
Javonte Green (B)
Coby White (B+Maybe)
The bench might need some added depth, but Artūras Karnišovas has made me a believer. Their lineup is so much better than it was just a few days ago and now they look like a genuine playoff team. So in Artūras we trust, I guess. The Bulls hit a metaphorical home run with this free agency as they now look to turn the corner and finally get back to being good again in the Eastern Conference.
Rapid-Fire Round
David Nwaba – Winner
Nwaba got a 3yr/$15 million dollar deal with $10 million guaranteed, which might seem like an overpay, but consider his grind to the NBA. Started off in a DII college but worked his way up to the Lakers G-League team. He bounced around for a few teams, but an Achilles tear with the Brooklyn Nets in 2019 seemed like the end to his career after bouncing around with multiple teams.
But he got a spot with the Rockets this past season and played 30 games for them. They liked him so much that they kept him around, where he finally gets some stability. A very deserving player finally getting a chance. You love to see it.
Lauri Markkanen – Loser
Markkanen was the 7th overall pick in 2018 and looked like he was going to be a really good player after averaging nearly 19 points per game during his sophomore season. As a stretch big, he was very good and looked to be a solid player. But since that promising 2nd season, injuries have hampered the once promising Markkanen and he’s essentially fallen out of the Bulls plans for the future.
During the 2021 March trade deadline, they acquired All-Star Nikola Vucevic, essentially an upgraded version of Markkanen. Markkanen hasn’t lived up to the progress he showed in his first two seasons and he’s almost certainly not going to be a Chicago Bull entering next season.
There is a report that Charlotte is going to give the restricted free agent a contract offer and it’s almost 100% certain that he’s going to be a Charlotte Hornet going forward. Maybe he can turn things around, but the fact that we don’t know for certain where the former lottery pick is going to be next season and the fact that this new deal with Charlotte won’t be much, not a far fetch to say that Markkanen has been a bust so far during his short NBA career.
Old Guys Going To Hollywood – Winners
The Lakers have a thing for older players, what can I say? I think this chart of their free agent signees sums things up well;
Trevor Ariza – 36 years old
Carmelo Anthony – 37 years old
Kent Bazemore – 32 years old
Dwight Howard – 35 years old
The Lakers average age is well over 30 years old and they are going to be good, but if you’re old and Lebron likes you, welcome to Hollywood.
Boston Celtics – Losers
I really wanted the Celtics to do more this offseason but they haven’t really done much in free agency. They’ve shifted things down low, getting Al Horford, a move I liked. But they lost Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier and they haven’t really filled in those holes yet. And no, Josh Richardson isn’t solving any of the Celtics’ problems.
Specifically point guard. For now, it looks like the starter will be Marcus Smart. I don’t think that’s bad, but you’re only point guards currently as Smart and Payton Pritchard, both of whom aren’t pass-first guys. I think that they could have definitely used Raul Neto, who recently re-signed with the Wizards.
I’m not saying that Smart/Pritchard is a bad option, but they just don’t have a floor general. I also think that they need a reliable 3rd scorer with Fournier now being gone. Tatum and Brown can’t be your only two scoring options. Unless you hope that Marcus Smart makes some shots, you’ll need something better than that.
One option I see is if they get rid of Jabari Parker and trade Kris Dunn, they free up about $7.3 million in cap space. Dennis Schroder? Anybody?
But the Celtics do need a floor general point guard or somebody who can be that 3rd option. Dennis Schroder would fit both of those molds well, but would Boston go out of there way for Schroder? Maybe, maybe not. But that is probably one of their better options at point guard. Interesting to see what Brad Stevens does.
Khem Birch Re-Signs With Toronto, 3yr/$20 Million Dollar Deal
The Raptors needed a center badly. Aron Baynes certainly wasn’t the answer but they got Khem Birch for free, because the Magic waived him, for some reason. He’s pretty solid and this deal isn’t that bad. I’d imagine he’s going to be their starter next season, unless they start Chris Boucher at center. Solid move.
Kelly Oubre Jr Signs With Charlotte, 2yrs/$26+ Million Dollar Deal
Oubre is a very talented player who just didn’t work out with the Warriors. He of course had that historically bad start to the 2021 season shooting wise but at only 25 years old, the Hornets could be getting a really good player.
We don’t know the full details of the deal, but it is a multi-year contract that is probably going to be one of the last contracts this offseason to exceed the $9.5 million dollar mid-level exception.
Oubre is talented and the Hornets are reinforcing their wing position. They now have the veteran Hayward and two young guys like Oubre and Miles Bridges. Maybe Miles Bridges’ role goes down a bit with the addition of Oubre, but now you have 3 talented wing scorers.
I love what the Hornets have done this offseason in both the draft and now this. Interesting to see if they still go after Lauri Markkanen after making this move, but as of right now, here is their roster;
Lamelo Ball (S)
Terry Rozier (S)
Gordon Hayward (S)
PJ Washington (S)
Mason Plumlee (S)
Miles Bridges (B)
Kelly Oubre Jr (B)
James Bouknight (B+R)
Kai Jones (B+R)
Jalen McDaniels (B)
Michael Jordan and Mitch Kupchak have built an incredibly deep, young, talented team. I like the addition of Oubre for the bench, he can give you 15-25 minutes per game, assuming he’s not starting. The Hornets definitely look like a playoff team and they could definitely surprise some people this upcoming season.
Who Are Your Winners and Losers From Free Agency? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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