Are The Heat Coming Back Down To Earth?
From the Heat’s steep fall back to reality to the Malachi Flynn situation in Toronto, I broke down everything from yesterday’s slate of games. Let’s get into it.
Miami Heat (109) vs Los Angeles Clippers (112)
The Miami Heat have been sliding and the Clippers have been on the rise. The Heat, after a great start, have slowed down. The Clippers have found their footing after a poor start.
These two teams’ season arcs so far played out in this game. The Heat dominated early on, but the Clippers came roaring back and held on for the win. That makes 6 straight wins for LA while the Heat have lost 4 out of their last 5 games.
Let’s break everything down, shall we?
Miami Heat
Ever since that major Jokic-Morris melee, the Heat haven’t been the same. That’s not the only reason for the Heat losing 4 out of their last 5 games, but things haven’t been the same for them since. So, what’s the problem?
Overreliance On Top 4 Scorers
The Heat jumped out to a 7-1 start thanks to their big 4 of Butler, Lowry, Adebayo, and Herro scoring at will. Those 4 guys were doing the heavy-lifting offensively and while we knew that wasn’t sustainable, the drop-off has been steep. With the Big 4 slowing down just a little bit, so have the Heat.
I think these numbers speak for themselves;
Miami’s PPG In First 7 Games (6-1): 115.6
PPG From Big 4 In First Seven Games: 78.9 (68.2%)
Miami’s PPG In Last 5 Games (1-4): 103.6
PPG From Big 4 In Last 5 Games: 73.9 (71%)
Over the first 7 games of the season, the Heat’s big 4 were scoring nearly 70% of their points. While that statement is still true over their losing streak, the Heat have been averaging fewer points as the Big 4 have slowed down.
Yes, Jimmy Butler did miss last night’s game against the Clippers and he hardly played against the Lakers, but my point still stands. Other than their Big 4, the Heat haven’t found scoring from other places. And it’s revealing their biggest problem as a team.
I don’t love their depth and I think that relying on 4 guys to score at will isn’t a recipe for success. I was worried about Miami’s depth to start the season and now I’m worried again. These last 5 games are showing me why Miami isn’t a real contender after all.
Duncan Robinson Has Been Awful
When Duncan Robinson signed his $90 million dollar extension this offseason, I thought he would be worth the money. Robinson had turned in two elite 3-PT shooting seasons and was a vital part of the Heat’s offense. Those two factors have him that big contract.
But with Robinson’s slow start to 2022, it’s been harder and harder for me to accept that he’s worth the money he got.
Again, it’s early, but Robinson has to play better. Not just for the sake of the contract, but for the sake of his team. The Heat need him to shoot better than 31% from 3 on 9.1 attempts per game.
The “good” thing for Robinson right now is that his shot attempts aren’t bad. He was 2/11 against the Clippers last night, but all of the shots that he took are makeable, for him. A lot of them are tough shots, but he can make those shots. We’ve seen him do it before.
I think that Robinson is in a funk. Sooner or later, these shots will start to fall. But I do think this is another great reminder to NBA teams that paying pure shooters is incredibly risky. Just ask the Washington Wizards how they feel about Davis Bertans right now.
Maybe shoving the MVP wasn’t the best idea in the world. Just a thought.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers, after a slow start to the season, have won their last 6 games. Paul George continues to be excellent in leading this team, but he’s getting some great help. The Clippers are finding that same gritty spirit from the playoffs last year and they are proving to be that pain in the butt that I thought they would be.
It’s a shame Kawhi isn’t with them because they would be contenders with the Klaw healthy.
Paul George Is Everything LA Needs Him To Be
With Kawhi Leonard out for the foreseeable future, the Clippers needed Paul George to be great. George, who has been under immense criticism for his playoff shortcomings in the bubble, has responded. After a great end to the 2021 playoffs, George has continued to be brilliant this season.
26.7 points – 7.8 rebounds – 5.4 assists – 2.5 steals – 56% TS
George is playing free. He is still an elite defender and he’s also figuring out how to be a better playmaker. George has amassed 40+ points twice this season and is on track for one of the best seasons of his career.
And LA needs him to continue playing like this. They need him to be aggressive and score at will. He’s talented enough to do so and George has been doing everything the Clippers need him to do.
Elite Defense
The Clippers have quietly had one of the better defenses in the NBA this season. With Kawhi Leonard, you’d expect such results. But without him? It’s a pleasant revelation that makes the Clippers’ inconsistent offense less of a problem.
The Clippers currently rank 3rd in defensive rating (102.5). They are among elite defenses like Golden State, Chicago, Miami, and Washington? How did they end up here?
Anyway, the Clippers’ stout defense has been their saving grace this season. The offense currently ranks 19th and it’s hard to imagine them getting into the top-10 of the league. So their defense is keeping them afloat, but how are they doing so?
Ball-Hawking Maestros
The Clippers, like past seasons, are ball-hawks. They have a lot of length and versatility, which creates chaos for opposing offenses.
17.3 Turnovers Forced Per Game (2nd)
9.5 Steals (2nd)
0.91 Charges Drawn (4th)
The Clippers are creating chaos. They are pressuring the crap out of opposing ball-handlers. When there is dribble penetration, there is a lot of digging down from the perimeter guys, trying to force mistakes. This strategy has worked so far.
But I want to highlight a few plays in particular from last night’s game against the Heat. These plays have been made by Luke Kennard, who has turned into a pretty good defender out of nowhere.
In the first quarter, Kennard is chasing Max Strus off of a screen. Strus has a step and is heading towards the basket. Hartenstein comes to help, leaving Bam Adebayo uncovered down low.
So Kennard, with the help of Paul George, swallow up Bam Adebayo down low and force a turnover. There was no real communication here, just great instincts from the Clippers.
In the 3rd quarter now, Kennard does a similar thing. He’s guarding Herro on the wing and gets screened by Bam Adebayo. Kennard fights around the screen and just does a great job recovering to get the steal.
Kennard took advantage of Herro now throwing a bounce pass in traffic, but it’s still a great defensive play.
Ok. Last one. I promise.
Off of a miss, the Heat are coming back down the floor. Ivica Zubac is late coming up the floor, leaving Adebayo open. He realizes this and is coming down the lane like a freight train.
Kennard comes over from the left wing to take this away. Gabe Vincent tries to fire the pass down low, but Kennard just intercepts it.
What’s better is that Zubac called this out as he was trying to come back down the floor. He points it out, Kennard sees it and makes a play. Great communication leads to Kennard getting his 3rd steal of the night.
Kennard has become a much better defense this season. While he isn’t incredibly athletic or known as a defender, the Clippers have not been terrible defensively with him on the floor.
I don’t know about the physicality part, but I can attest to the communication part.
I predicted that the Clippers would be a pain in the ass this season. They’re a gritty team that has figured things out somewhat a lot sooner than I thought they would. And if I’m being honest, they are looking like a playoff team as of right now.
They’ve been great defensively, they have a lot of depth, and as long as Paul George doesn’t slip, they should be fine.
The Raptors Need To Use Malachi Flynn More
In the 2020 NBA Draft, the Raptors used the 29th overall pick to take Malachi Flynn. The guard from San Diego State could score the ball and gave the Raptors good depth. His rookie season was dormant for most of the year, but he then exploded over the last few months of 2021.
With the Raptors depleted by injuries and Covid, Flynn got to see meaningful minutes to end the year. He didn’t waste them. From April up until the end of the year, Flynn was very productive.
28.7 MPG – 12.5 points – 4.5 assists – 1.3 steals – 53% TS
Flynn ended the season hot, showing off his playmaking and scoring upside. These last two months were promising for Flynn and I was hoping he would build off that this season. Instead, the opposite has occurred.
Flynn has played just 34 minutes over 7 games for the Raptors. His role has been completely taken over by rookie Delano Banton. While Banton deserves some minutes, so does Flynn.
I’ve seen some reports suggesting that Flynn hasn’t improved enough for Nick Nurse’s liking. I find that to be a pretty dumb reason not to play him, but that’s just me. It seems likely that Flynn will have to go to the G-League for some real minutes, which is very disappointing.
I think Flynn is a competent backup point guard for the Raptors. He gives them some much-needed shooting and playmaking. It also doesn’t hurt that he fits their rebuilding timeline. I get that Nick Nurse wants to put his best players in, but not having Flynn out there is a mistake.
By season’s end, I am hoping for another Malachi Flynn outburst in both minutes and production.
What Are Your Thoughts From Last Night’s Games? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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