Breaking Down Contender’s Clutch Play; Week 20 Power Rankings
Being effective in close games is the difference between good and great teams. Today, I tried to find out clutch some contenders are.
From breaking down contenders in the clutch to some award race updates, here are my Week 20 power rankings.
Weekly Power Rankings
Of the ten best teams in the NBA, where do they rank in close games? When the lights are the brightest, do they rise to the challenge? I tried to answer those questions in this week’s power rankings.
#10 – Brooklyn Nets
Record: (35-33)
Offensive Rating: 111.8 (12th)
Defensive Rating: 112.1 (22nd)
Net Rating: -0.3 (17th)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 21st
After their drudging of the 76ers on Thursday, I’m starting to believe in the Nets. They may have more questions than any other team in the league. And yet, they’re the team that nobody wants to face.
Since they’re likely to be a 6th-8th seed in the East, opposing defenses will have to deal with Kyrie Irving more often. Guarding Durant is already a grueling task, but when you add in Kyrie? It’s an offensive overload you can’t hope to stop.
The cherry on top would be Ben Simmons. In a perfect world, he’s their needed defensive stopper in the postseason. Brooklyn is heating up at the right time, and somehow, a title isn’t out of the odds for them despite all they’ve endured this season.
Nets Clutch Profile
(19-16 Record)
41.5% FG (18th)
27.5% 3-PT (21st)
88/112 FT (3rd)
24 turnovers (2nd best)
+26 plus/minus (6th)
Best Player: Kevin Durant
Biggest Liability: Kyrie Irving???
#9 – Dallas Mavericks
Record: (42-26)
Offensive Rating: 111.0 (18th)
Defensive Rating: 107.7 (6th)
Net Rating: 3.3 (8th)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 16th
A grind-it-out victory against the Celtics last night perfectly described this Mavs team. They now have the ability to shut you down. So even if Luka Doncic struggles, they can hang in there. Doncic finished strong, and Dallas earned another win.
The addition of Spencer Dinwiddie has proven to be genius. Along with Brunson and Doncic, the Mavs offense finally feels potent enough. Dallas is 12-3 in their last 15 games. Dorian Finney Smith and Maxi Kleber have turned into stalwarts.
They haven’t won a playoff series with their young mega-star. For once, the stars are aligning in their favor. If you were to pick a dark horse in the postseason, it would be Dallas.
Mavericks Clutch Profile
(19-16 Record)
43.6% FG (12th)
27.2% 3-PT (22nd)
26 turnovers (t-8th best)
-15 plus/minus (21st)
Best Player Luka Doncic
Biggest Liabilities: Tim Hardaway Jr and Jalen Brunson
#8 – Philadelphia 76ers
Record: (41-25)
Offensive Rating: 111.7 (13th)
Defensive Rating: 109.5 (9th)
Net Rating: 2.2 (12th)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 18th
The Harden-76ers pairing was off to a perfect start. Let’s call their recent struggles road bumps. Harden was putrid against his former team, showing that this pairing has some kinks to work out. Almost losing to the Magic in overtime doesn’t reassure me in the slightest.
Yes, adding Harden made them more dangerous. But, they still have problems. Losing Seth Cury hampered their floor spacing. Joel Embiid is slowing down, struggling with the weight of the offense on his shoulders.
The 76ers are the only team in the East who seems open to avoiding the Nets. That should tell you all you need to know about them.
76ers Clutch Profile
(20-15 Record)
44.1% FG (10th)
37.0% 3-PT (4th)
77/106 FT (T-7th)
31 turnovers (19th)
Best Player: Joel Embiid
Biggest Liabilities: Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey
#7 – Boston Celtics
Record: (41-28)
Offensive Rating: 111.3 (15th)
Defensive Rating: 105.6 (1st)
Net Rating: 5.7 (4th)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd
A heartwarming KG jersey retirement wasn’t enough for Boston to beat the Mavs last night. Regardless, they’ve been on a roll in the calendar year. The combination of a Jayson Tatum explosion with superb defense saved Boston from another mediocre season.
However, the Celtics face the toughest part of their schedule to end the year. Their propulsion in the standing was thanks to crappy teams. We’ll get to see if this team is a legitimate threat in the East, or imposters.
In case of the need to run through a wall
Celtics Clutch Profile
(12-19 Record)
41.1% FG (20th)
27.5% 3-PT (20th)
89/101 FT (2nd)
34 turnovers (24th)
-18 plus/minus (22nd)
Best Player: Jaylen Brown
Biggest Liability: Jayson Tatum
#6 – Chicago Bulls
Record: (41-26)
Offensive Rating: 113.1 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 111.7 (21st)
Net Rating: 1.4
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd
Getting back Alex Caruso is the first step of the recovery process for Chicago. Despite being well over 0.500, they’ve had a back-breaking season.
Lonzo Ball remains out. Patrick Williams has played all but five games this year. Still, the Bulls find ways to win. NBA teams, most of them anyway, can’t withstand these many hurdles. Instead, Chicago remains in the hunt for a top seed in the East.
DeMar DeRozan is having the best season of his career. Lavine and Vucevic remain productive. The role players, particularly rookie Ayo Dosunmu, have stepped up with all the injuries. Their end-of-season schedule is the nail in the coffin to a brutal season.
But you know what? I think they can survive it.
Bulls Clutch Profile
(22-14 Record)
46.5% FG (3rd)
26.3% 3-PT (24th)
99/114 FT (1st)
24 turnovers (T-2nd)
+46 plus/minus (3rd)
Best Player: DeMar DeRozan
Biggest Liabilities: Caruso, Ball, and Coby White
#5 – Milwaukee Bucks
Record: (42-26)
Offensive Rating: 113.7 (3rd)
Defensive Rating: 110.0 (13th)
Net Rating: 3.7 (7th)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 6th
Getting back Brook Lopez down low is huge. Size has been a problem for Milwaukee all year long. Without Lopez, their center rotation has been in flux. The Bucks have been up and down all year long. Their offense is heating up, but their defense has been an outlier compared to recent seasons.
Lopez returning from injury eases that pain, however, Milwaukee has been off-kilter all year long. I keep waiting for them to hit their stride and go on a prolonged winning streak. That hasn’t happened yet, and time isn’t on their side.
The Eastern Conference is far more competitive than it was last season. For the Bucks to repeat, they’ll have to prove me wrong.
Bucks Clutch Profile
(19-16 Record)
45.9% FG (4th)
34.8% 3-PT (9th)
59/75 FT (23rd)
+26 plus/minus (t-6th)
Best Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Biggest Liability: Khris Middleton
#4 – Miami Heat
Record: (45-24)
Offensive Rating: 112.1 (11th)
Defensive Rating: 107.5 (5th)
Net Rating: 4.6 (5th)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 24th
Amongst a bloodbath at the top of the East, Miami has built a comfortable lead. Despite missing all three of their best players for weeks at a time, the Heat are out for blood. Last year’s humiliating sweep in the first round was a wake-up call.
Miami was a team built for the playoffs. We knew that from the start as they added aging veterans like Lowry and Tucker. If they’re able to get homecourt advantage plus some rest before the playoffs?
If health is on their side, anything is possible. I’ve questioned this team’s depth and resolve all year long. For the first time this season, I believe this team has a chance to win it all.
Heat Clutch Profile
(19-13 Record)
38.4% FG (28th)
35.0% 3-PT (8th)
61/77 FT (19th)
+9 plus/minus (13th)
Best Player: Kyle Lowry
Biggest Liabilities: Jimmy Butler + Tyler Herro
#3 – Golden State Warriors
Record: (46-22)
Offensive Rating: 112.2 (9th)
Defensive Rating: 105.8 (3rd)
Net Rating: 6.4 (3rd)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 12th
Today marks the much-needed return of Draymond Green. After a blistering start to the season, Golden State wasn’t quite the same without their fearless leader. The return of Klay Thompson couldn’t save an offense that plummeted without someone to direct them. Stephen Curry still hasn’t escaped the worst shooting stretch of his career.
Getting Green back means a lot for the Warriors. It gives them a chance to reclaim the #2 seed in the West. Their schedule to end the season isn’t easy, but let’s not forget. The Warriors are 28-6 with Green this season.
Barring anything unforeseen, the Warriors will be back to their winning ways when their defensive player of the year returns.
Warriors Clutch Profile
(21-14 Record)
43.5% FG (14th)
26.5% 3-PT (23rd)
42/53 FT (30th)
+9 plus/minus (14th)
Best Player: Klay Thompson
Biggest Liability: Stephen Curry
#2 – Memphis Grizzlies
Record: (47-22)
Offensive Rating: 113.5 (5th)
Defensive Rating: 109.0 (8th)
Net Rating: 4.5 (6th)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 11th
Did someone say #2 seed in the West? That would be the Memphis Grizzlies, who have benefited the most from the Warriors slowing down. Getting Dillon Brooks back from his ankle injury means that the deepest team in the league added a primary weapon.
Memphis has everything they need to succeed in the playoffs. Ja Morant is an ascending superstar who isn’t afraid of the moment. Their defense is anchored down low with JJJ and Steven Adams. Desmond Bane highlights a bevy of scorers who make the offense pop.
The only things that can hold them back are their lack of experience and streaky shooting. If there were ever a team to play spoiler in the postseason, the Grizzlies would fit that description perfectly.
Grizzlies Clutch Profile
(19-10 Record)
42.3% (17th)
32.4% 3-PT (12th)
83/103 FT (T-4th)
+51 plus/minus (2nd)
Best Player: Ja Morant
Biggest Liability: Jaren Jackson Jr
#1 – Phoenix Suns
Record: (54-14)
Offensive Rating: 113.7 (4th)
Defensive Rating: 105.8 (2nd)
Net Rating: 8.0 (1st)
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 20th
The Phoenix Suns have ascended past the title of “team.” They are a “machine.” Chris Paul is likely out for the rest of the regular season. Deandre Ayton has missed 21 games. Devin Booker missed some games with Covid.
Similar to the situation in Chicago, teams usually crumble with all those obstacles. Instead, the Suns are far and away the best team in the league. They’re the only team that is top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
With just 14 games left in the regular season, they have a 7.5 lead on first place. After falling just short last season, the Suns are proving that their run to the Finals wasn’t a fluke. This year, I’m not so sure the same outcome will occur.
(Don’t tell Anthony Davis that, though.)
Suns Clutch Profile
(27-6 Record)
56.5% FG (1st)
43.8% 3-PT (2nd)
74/100 FT (12th)
+83 plus/minus (1st)
Best Player: CP-3 & Devin Booker
Biggest Liability: Nobody
Rookie of the Year Ladder
It’s been a while since I’ve talked about the rookie of the year race. Even during my hiatus, not a lot has changed. However, things have gotten a lot closer. Let’s look at the top three candidates.
#3 – Scottie Barnes (TOR)
Scottie Barnes is having a fantastic rookie season. I had my doubts when he was drafted 4th overall. With his lack of a perimeter jump shot, I figured he would struggle at times. However, he’s looked like the ROTY at times this year.
He’s already a matchup nightmare on defense. His versatility on that end is ridiculous. Even more impressive has been his scoring prowess. Barnes has had fifteen games with 20+ points this season. That, to me, has been the most promising this about his rookie season.
Barnes is at #3 mainly because of trends. He’s been playing well as of late, but the two guys in front of him have been better, especially Cade. Barnes is also streaky, as he’s scored in the single-digits almost as much as he’s scored 20+ points.
Overall, his rookie season has been a success. But, I find it hard to believe he’ll win rookie of the year.
15.2 points / 7.6 rebounds / 3.3 assists / 55% TS / 0.8 BPM
#2 – Cade Cunningham (DET)
While Barnes has been steady all year long, Cade has been ramping things up. The #1 overall pick has turned into the leading scorer on Detroit, which isn’t saying much, but still. His craftiness, change of pace, and size were his defining traits coming out of college.
Over the past few weeks, you’re seeing him lean into those traits more and more. His scoring has skyrocketed, so much so that he joined Pistons legend Isiah Thomas with his efforts.
If Cade continues to average nearly 90 touches per game, his trend of scoring in bunches will continue. Finishing strong dictates Cade’s chances to steal this award from Evan Mobley.
20.5 points / 7.1 rebounds / 5.5 assists / 42.5% FG / 29% 3-PT **
(Cade over the past 13 games)
#1 – Evan Mobley (CLE)
Evan Mobley was my favorite prospect in last year’s draft. He had a chance to be the most dynamic and talented player, unusual for a 7-foot forward. I couldn’t have been more right.
Mobley has been one of the catalysts for Cleveland having a breaking season. He can guard 1-5 defensively. His timing and ability to affect shots around the rim is mystifying for a 20-year old.
He lacks the lower body strength to be a plus on offense, but he remains consistent on that end. His pick-and-rolls with Garland are solid. The occasional perimeter jumper is in his arsenal as well.
Mobley isn’t overly flashy. He’s not going to average 20 and 10 for a month. What he lacks in style, he makes up for in production. Even with Barnes and Cunningham gunning for his spot, I think Mobley has this award locked down.
He’s been in the driver’s seat for months. With Jarrett Allen out, Mobley’s role has increased just in time for the playoffs. All those factors lead me to believe that Mobley is a lock for ROTY.
14.9 points / 8.3 rebounds / 2.5 stocks / 55% TS / 0.7 BPM
What Are Your Thoughts On This Week’s Power Rankings? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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