Can the Celtics Slow Down Luka in the Finals?
After months of games, injuries, and lucky bounces, the NBA Finals are finally upon us. For the sixth straight year, the NBA will crown a new champion, a feat that hasn’t happened since 1975-1980. Will the Celtics finally get over the hump with this core, or will Luka Doncic continue to set the world ablaze and pull off another upset?
Jason Kidd and Joe Mazzulla have had a week of rest leading up to this matchup, and they’ll need every second. Both Boston and Dallas pose complex tactical decisions. This series will be as much about the star power as it is about the X’s and O’s. Today, I’ll try to tackle some of these decisions in the buildup to the series.
Is There Any Hope of Slowing Down Luka Doncic?
At 25 years old, Luka Doncic already has a chance to cement himself as one of the greatest players the game has ever seen. Through his first six seasons, Doncic already has more first team All-NBAs than Kevin Garnett, Allen Iverson, and John Stockton. Over the past five seasons, he’s averaged 30.3 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 8.8 assists on 59.5% true shooting. The only other guy to do that in NBA history is Oscar Robertson, who did it for the first nine seasons of his career.
His playoff exploits are even more legendary, however. Doncic is 2nd all-time in per-game playoff scoring (31.1), behind only Michael Jordan. He’s scored 30 or more points in 56% (25/45) of his playoff games and 40+ points in 18% of them (8/45). Watching Doncic bully the Timberwolves and their fans in the conference finals was therapeutic and mesmerizing. If it wasn’t already readily apparent, we’re watching one of the greats hit his stride.
On the offensive side of the floor, there’s nothing Doncic can’t do. The vision, the shooting, the intuition, it’s all there. His craft, change of pace, and creativity allow him to carve up any defense in front of him. With that in mind, can the Celtics do anything to slow down this supernova?
If the regular season is any indicator, probably not. Jaylen Brown was Luka’s primary matchup during the regular season. Doncic averaged 35 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists on 47% shooting in those two games, although Boston won both times. Still, the Celtics likely have the most bodies of any team in the league to stick on Doncic. Tatum and Brown are sound defenders with great size, but guarding Doncic will diminish their offensive outputs in this series. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are excellent defenders in their own right but are way too small to affect Doncic. Those two will spend more time with Kyrie Irving, who I’ll discuss later.
Minnesota threw the book at Luka with different coverages and looks, and nothing worked. The only strategy I wouldn’t recommend is playing drop coverage (especially with Al Horford). One potential strategy might be to leave Doncic’s defender on an island to prevent him from playmaking too much. This is a strategy that has worked against Nikola Jokic over the past few seasons. Jokic and Doncic are similar in that they’re both at their most dangerous when they’re scoring and creating. If you take away one of those avenues, the defense equation becomes much simpler.
Still, it’s telling that Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla said there’s “no stopping them” when talking about Dallas’ dynamic backcourt. Doncic will get what he wants in this series. All the great ones do. It’s telling that Boston, one of the better defensive teams of the past decade, seems overmatched against Luka. Get ready for some maestro performances in this series, everybody.
The Porzingis Factor
Boston’s path through the Eastern Conference was easy, to say the least. They beat up on injured teams, missing their best players. But the Celtics themselves weren’t at full strength. Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play in either of Boston’s last two rounds. And with Porzingis slated to make his return from his calf injury in game one, the Celtics are a totally different beast.
After acquiring Porzingis for essentially nothing this off-season, KP has transformed Boston on both ends. Defensively, opponents shot just 52% at the rim when Porzingis was the closest defender, the fifth-lowest mark among the 66 players who defended at least 250 shots this season. And offensively, Porzingis averaged 20 points a night on 52/38/86 shooting splits. The irony is not lost on me that this is the guy that Dallas expected to get when they traded for him all those years ago.
Now, Porzingis will undoubtedly be a little rusty in this series. He hasn’t played since April 29th and will likely be on a minutes restriction. But his impact will be felt in this series. For starters, Al Horford can now return to the bench. Horford still has his moments, but he’s become a defensive liability with his lack of mobility.
Granted, Porzingis’ mobility will also not be 100%. I’m sure Dallas will test him in pick-and-rolls like they did with Rudy Gobert in the conference finals. However, unlike Minnesota, Boston will be much less inclined to leave Porzingis on an island against Doncic and Irving.
But Porzingis’ real impact in this series will be on the other end. Throughout the playoffs, the Mavs have packed the paint and dared opposing bigs to beat them. Naz Reid attempted 25 triples in the previous round. And in the second round against OKC, Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams ripped off 42 attempts from beyond the arc.
With Porzingis re-entering the fray, this strategy no longer becomes viable. Given the range that Porzingis possesses, Gafford and Lively will have to leave the restricted area. This will open up the floor for Boston’s multitudes of creators and ball-handlers to get downhill at will against Dallas’ substandard perimeter defenders.
This season’s Celtics are the fourth team in league history to be top-ten in both regular season and postseason net rating. The other teams are the 1971 Bucks, the 1996 Bulls, and the 2017 Warriors, three of the most dominant teams in league history. Boston accomplished that postseason dominance without one of their key contributors, who is now healthy. But yeah, they’re definitely not a superteam or anything.
And the Advantage in Close Games Goes To….
Based purely on vibes, I think the Dallas Mavericks will win any close games in this series. Time and time again this postseason, Dallas has been nails when it matters most. Luka and Kyrie have been brilliant under pressure. But the margin between the Celtics and Mavs in close games is slimmer than one might think.
During the regular season, the Mavs were 3rd in clutch net rating (+20.5), while Boston was 4th (+15.4). In the playoffs, Boston has an absurd plus-43.9 net rating in the clutch, while the Mavericks are only at plus-1.6. Despite that low rating, the Mavericks are 6-3 in close games this postseason.
In the second round against OKC, both Dallas and OKC scored 636 points. That’s how close that series was. And while Dallas appeared to bully Minnesota, if it wasn’t for those two Doncic late buckets in the first two games, we would be talking about that series in a totally different way. Despite sub-par stats, the Mavericks have thrived in the clutch.
Boston’s possessions, despite the good results, feel clunky and disjointed. They settle for awkward long jumpers instead of attacking. The differences between Luka Doncic and Tatum and Brown are readily apparent in these moments. Still, the Finals are a zero-sum game: Only one of these teams can continue their success in close games. And whoever does that has a pretty good chance of winning it all.
Kyrie is the Most Important Player in this Series
A competitive, long series is any fan’s dream for the NBA Finals. And for the Mavericks to have any chance in this series, they’ll need Kyrie Irving to be at his best. In the second round, Irving averaged just 15.7 points and scored in the single digits twice. That’s one of the reasons that the series was so close.
But, when Irving averaged 27 points in the conference finals — including three 30-point efforts — Dallas won handily. Irving is no stranger to the NBA Finals. This will be his fourth appearance. He’s had big games in the Finals before and has arguably hit the biggest shot in NBA history. He’s a proven, cold-blooded killer.
Still, while Doncic dominated Boston during the regular season, Irving did not. Up against Holiday and White, Irving scored 42 points on 43 shots while attempting just two free throws. If those same numbers continue, the Mavericks will get annihilated. As good as Luka is, he’ll need his co-star to be his equal for this series to be competitive.
When the Mavericks first made the trade for Irving, I was critical. Irving was and still is a loose cannon, prone to getting distracted and flying off the handle with his sometimes antisemitic views. But, over the past couple of seasons, Irving has changed. He’s much more likable and down to earth. That, of course, doesn’t excuse his asshole behavior from the five preceding years, but it’s something.
And there’s no better way to prove yourself a changed man than sticking it to the team that hates your guts. Irving will have his hands full in this series. It’s no easy task going against two All-NBA caliber defenders in one series. But I think Irving is up for the task, trying to complete his own personal journey and help Dallas win their first title since 2011.
Or he’ll post some stupid link before game four. Both are realistic outcomes.
Sooo…Who’s Going to Win?
I’ll be very blunt. If the Celtics don’t win this series, it will be one of the biggest blunders in league history. Not only are the Celtics the far more talented squad, they’re one of the most dominant teams in league history. History says teams of their caliber don’t lose at this stage.
Boston’s combined regular season and postseason record is 76-20. Over the past 50 years, ten other teams have had 20 or fewer losses entering the Finals. Only the 2016 Warriors lost. Meanwhile, the Mavericks would be the 2nd-worst Finals winner (by record) since the 1979-80 season.
I’m obviously hoping for a competitive series filled with Doncic’s artistry and Boston’s cohesion, but if we’re being honest, a cutthroat series is an unlikely outcome. Maybe Dallas uses that as motivation to continue their magical run that started at the trade deadline, but I doubt that the power of friendship can help them overcome these behemoth, healthy Celtics. Boston’s tendency to take their foot of the gas might help Dallas stay semi-competitive, but I doubt they’ll ever feel truly threatened in this series.
Prediction: Celtics win 4-2
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