Can the Grizzlies and Bucks Get Out of the First Round?
The Bucks and Grizzlies were both top-two seeds in their respective conferences. Now, it’s time to wonder if they’ll escape the first round.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies have had similarly rocky first-round series. While both teams were top seeds in their respective conferences, both are one loss away from an upset against teams that weren’t guaranteed a playoff spot. Both teams’ stars have missed important games with injuries.
Even with their backs against the wall, a comeback is very much still in the cards. So, can they do it? Can both of these heavily favored top dogs find the fight and resolve to save their season from disaster?
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee’s first round has been… interesting, to say the least. They’ve had to navigate injuries, insanely hot shooting and Jimmy Butler going nuclear in game 4. It’s still kind of hard to believe that this team is on the verge of getting upset in the first round. Giannis Antetokounmpo played just 11 minutes through the first three games after suffering a back contusion in game one.
Even when they got the best player in the league back, Butler and Miami stormed back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to steal what seemed like a 2-2 series deadlock. Milwaukee had total control of the game up until those last few minutes. The Bucks got away from the Giannis/Lopez pick-and-rolls that had been so effective, and Giannis tweaked his back. Butler stole the show, and potentially the series.
All of that put together and…boom! 3-1 series deficit for a team that most had winning it all this season (including me!).
Now, I should note that if any team were to come back from this seemingly insurmountable hole, it would be the Bucks. They have the best player in the league, who posted a triple-double when he was clearly less than 100%. Two of the final three games will be played on Milwaukee’s home court. I still the Bucks are the much more talented team.
There’s more reason for hope in Cream City. Miami’s red-hot shooting has been the difference in this series. After being one of the worst shooting teams in the regular season, the Heat have done their best Warriors impression in their series. Not only have the Heat been hitting almost all of their triples, but it’s also been the volume at which they’ve been doing so.
This isn’t normal for any team, much less the Heat;
| Game 1 | 15-25 (60%) 3-PT shooting |
| Game 2 | 16/36 (44%) 3-PT Shooting |
| Game 3 | 16/33 (49%) 3-PT shooting |
| Game 4 | 13/32 (41%) 3-PT shooting |
Tyler Herro, Miami’s best shooter, hasn’t played since game one after breaking his hand. And it’s not like the Bucks’ defense is allowing Miami to rain down threes. Old iterations of Budenholzer’s defense used to do that, but not this one. Milwaukee isn’t conceding these outside shots. Instead, Miami is making an absurd amount of contested shots.
Through four games, the Heat are shooting 43/82 on contested three-pointers. That’s 52%! And, according to second spectrum, Miami has been outperforming their expected effective field goal percentage by a gobsmacking 10.5 percentage points. Milwaukee is forcing tough shots, but the Heat are making them anyway.
Another problem for the Bucks has been Jimmy Butler. Numerous defenders have all tried and failed to stop him. Jrue Holiday has been getting increasingly more handsy and physical, but it doesn’t matter. Butler is in that mode where it doesn’t matter who is in front of him. Unless a team with three of the best defenders in the league starts sending double teams (unlikely), the best solution to slowing Jimmy down is hoping he slows down of his own volition.
The Bucks know they’re the better team with a somewhat healthy Giannis. You saw that for about 42 minutes in game four. Miami can’t handle the size of Lopez and Giannis. And I doubt that Jimmy Butler can pour in another 56-point game against one of the best defenders in the world, although crazier things have happened.
I wouldn’t say that the Bucks should be confident in a comeback, but if any team were to do it, my money would be on this one.
Confidence: 7/10
Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies, on the other hand, aren’t in trouble because of Ja Morant’s hand injury. Yes, the Grizzlies lost a lead in the fourth quarter after Morant left in game one. But Morant has been back for games three and four. Memphis’ lone win in this series came when Ja was sidelined. In game three, the controversial star poured in 22 straight fourth-quarter points and 45 on the evening to keep things close.
I would argue that the injuries to Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams in the frontcourt have hurt this team more. Memphis is very good at playing without Morant, so that excuse doesn’t hold up well with me. The main reason this young, inexperienced team is in a 1-3 hole is because of themselves. Memphis hasn’t played up to their standards and they’ve been letting the Lakers get whatever they want.
Los Angeles has been good in this series, but they haven’t been unbeatable. This is the same team that started off the season 2-10, after all. They’re not perfect. Memphis’ defense has been strong throughout this series. They’ve held Anthony Davis in check at times and Lebron James hasn’t been attacking the rim much. The Lakers have a pitiful 87.9 offensive rating in the halfcourt.
However, Memphis’ offense has continued to give them problems. Even after adding the likes of Luke Kennard at the trade deadline, the Grizzlies still lack floor spacing. The floor feels condensed with the Lakers sagging off Morant and JJJ. Desmond Bane shooting below the mendoza line because of Reaves’ dogged chasing has only compounded the problem.
Memphis’ halfcourt offense has been even worse than LA’s, managing just 86.2 points per 100 possessions. Only the Cavs and Knicks have been worse in their rockfight first round brawl. Since halfcourt scoring is essentially a lost cause, the Lakers have taken advantage of other methods of scoring.
In particular, the purple and gold have dominated Memphis on the offensive glass and in transition. Memphis has allowed 16.5 second chance points per game in this series. That depleted frontcourt hasn’t been able to slow down Vanderbilt and Davis down low.
Turnovers have plagued Memphis in this series. Of their 53 turnovers through the first four games, 32 of them have come from lazy passes or sloppy ball handling, by my count. Those unforced errors have let the Lakers get out in transition, where they’ve thrived throughout this series. LA has averaged 18 fastbreak points per game in this series.
Of course, not all of Memphis’ problems have been on the court. As they’ve done all season, the Grizzlies have brought unnecessary heat and attention on themselves with their antics and bold claims. Dillon Brooks has been at the forefront of this team’s immaturity.
After calling Lebron James “old” after game two, Brooks hasn’t talked with the media after the game three and four losses. Morant didn’t speak with the media after game four, either. Brooks has been atrocious in this series, shooting 33% from the field and consistently being ignored by the Lakers.
Head coach Taylor Jenkins has lamented an inability to pay attention to the finer details of the game plan at the most important times throughout this series. All of those issues trace back to the same basic theme of being immature as a team. The Grizzlies entered the season as the fifth-youngest team in the league. But they don’t have Steven Adams or even Danny Green — who’s sabotaging the Cavs — to be those elder statesmen of sorts. While I’m sure Adams is still helping from the sidelines, it’s much easier to lead by example.
Talking trash isn’t a cardinal sin. But you have to be able to back it up. And this Grizzlies team doesn’t have the resume or the resolve to do that. I’m sure I’m stating the obvious here when I’m saying that Lebron James is best left unprovoked. The best player of our generation and a dude who’s on the Mount Rushmore of basketball doesn’t need extra motivation.
For a team that was “fine in the West” a few months ago, the Grizzlies are on the verge of being knocked out of the first round. As talented as this team is, they’re still a ways away from having the maturity to take that next step. They can’t seem to fix the mistakes, and they can’t answer for the hole that they’ve dug themselves.
I find it hard to believe that now is the time that the Grizzlies will put everything together and win three straight games against a team that has their number. If it didn’t happen after the Morant suspension or last year’s postseason, why on Earth will it happen right now?
As Damian Lilllard put it;
Confidence: 1/10
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