Evaluating More of the 2022 Rookie Class
A couple of months ago I talked about some members of the 2022 draft. Today, I’m going to talk about a few more members of this rookie class.
Most draft classes take a few years to pan out. For the most part, rookies aren’t spectacular when they first come into the league. There are lots of growing pains. You’ll see silly turnovers, poor shot selection, and overwhelmed faces. And it’s not like this draft class doesn’t have these things. But, based on what we’ve seen so far, this rookie class is for real.
And it’s not just the top draft picks who have been shining. Plenty of rookies throughout the draft have been shining in their first opportunities. This is my second edition of evaluating this 2022 draft class, and it’ll go more in depth into some guys to keep an eye on going forward.
My Rookie of the Year Ladder
Seeing as we’re past the midway point of the NBA season, I thought I would share my rookie of the year ladder. I don’t put too much stock into this award because the rookie who scores the most points always wins. It’s hardly about impact or quality of play.
There are lots of rookies (like guys I’ll mention later) who aren’t close to cracking this leaderboard despite being very impactful on their respective teams. That being said, I think there’s a pretty clear-cut top five as of right now;
- Paolo Banchero: 21.2 points ~ 6.9 rebounds ~ 55% TS ~ 7.9 FTA(!!!!!!!)*
- Bennedict Mathurin: 17.1 points ~ 56% TS ~ 5.9 FTA*
- Keegan Murray: 11.7 points ~ 57% TS ~ +90 plus/minus*
- Walker Kessler: 6.9 rebounds ~ 6.7 rebounds ~ 1.9 blocks ~ 19 MINUTES (!!!!!!)*
- Andrew Nembhard: 8.4 points ~ 3.7 assists ~ 59% TS ~ 40% 3-PT*
I don’t think there are any other rookies who deserve to be here. All of these guys have been impactful and fun to watch. Alright, without further ado, here are some of my favorite rooks from this season (so far).
Jeremy Sochan (San Antonio Spurs)
8.7 points ~ 4.7 rebounds ~ 2.4 assists ~ 25.5 minutes*
Jeremy Sochan is as vibrant as they come. And I’m not just talking about his Dennis Rodman, Demolition Man-style hair. I’m also not talking about his (surprisingly) effective one-handed free-throw form. Sochan was the 9th pick in the draft out of Baylor despite starting one game. His physical tools and defensive versatility made him a salivating prospect.
Sochan is one of those rookies who will never be a standout scorer. That’s not his job, and I doubt it ever will be. Sochan is the guy who gets his hands dirty every night. The type of player that every team needs. This season, Sochan has excelled defensively and as a passer, two things that are hard to do as a rookie.
He’ll have his rookie mistakes and bad decisions, but his unreal fluidity and lateral quickness make up for that. There aren’t many 6’8″ forwards who can defend the quicker guards in the league. During their matchup a few months ago, I vividly remember Sochan making life hell for Damian Lillard. Lillard shot just 8/20 from the field that night.
Sochan’s value cannot be encapsulated in a box score. And while his numbers aren’t pretty, it’s ignorant to think of him as anything less than an impactful wing. Today, I want to highlight Sochan’s passing, in particular.
Passing
You can see why Draymond Green was one of the comparisons for Sochan coming out of college. San Antonio has given Sochan lots of ball-handling opportunities, treating him like a guard. Sochan has displayed great touch and feel as a passer out of the post, as well.
San Antonio has really leaned into giving Sochan more ball-handling duties. And he’s not afraid to dribble in the half-court to scout out opportunities. That’s so valuable in the NBA today. If Sochan develops more as a scorer, he can take bigger, slower-footed defenders off the dribble and blow by them. But, for the moment, he’ll serve as an oversized point guard.
Outlook
Spurs fans should be very excited about Sochan going forward. Even if his offense never develops, he projects to be an All-Defensive member with his versatility and length. But I’m willing to bet his ball-handling abilities translate into a more polished scorer. Getting a reliable outside shot has to be his first priority, however.
It’s easy to forget that Sochan is just 19 years old. At times, he looks like a chicken with its head cut off. We still don’t know what he’s capable of. As Sochan gets more experience on the nuances of the defensive side of the ball and bulks up, he can really blossom. He has one of the highest ceilings of any player in this class. We’ll see if the Spurs’ tried-and-true player development can net them another gem.
Jalen Williams (OKC Thunder)
As a starter: 12.6 points ~ 4.3 rebounds ~ 2.9 assists ~ 57% TS*
Jalen Williams has earned a spot in OKC’s starting lineup for a reason. Despite playing at a mid-major in Santa Clara, I liked Williams coming out of college, and he’s looked great as a pro thus far. Sam Presti snagged him in the lottery, continuing a trend of the Thunder selecting plus-sized players who can handle the ball.
Playing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been Williams’ biggest blessing as a rookie. In OKC’s spaced-out offense, Williams thrives. He uses his 7-foot-2 wingspan to get downhill and attack the rim. He’s been efficient from everywhere on the floor and is a pretty good passer, too.
Attacking closeouts and putting the ball on the floor is what Williams excels at. He loves his 10-18 foot mid-range shots, which he shoots at a nearly 50% clip. Most rookies struggle to make an impact off the ball, but Williams has done a great job at filling in when needed. His change of pace and quick-stopping ability make him like a speedy point guard. Then you remember that he has Mikal Bridges-like length.
This play exemplifies Williams’ talent;
Along with his scoring prowess, Jalen’s ability to set screens, handle the ball and roam the dunker’s spot make him a Swiss Army Knife. Most rookies are painfully one-sided. They only excel in one or two areas of the game. That is hardly a problem for Williams. He can be used in so many ways.
Williams is still figuring out to use his size to his advantage. There are times when he’s out of control and not seeing the game as well as he could down the road. That will only come with more reps. The next step is polishing his scoring and shooting or fulfilling his wingspan’s desire to lock down opposing wings.
But, it’s abundantly clear that OKC got a keeper in Williams and he’ll fit right in with what the Thunder are building for the future.
Shaedon Sharpe (Portland Trail Blazers)
7.6 points ~ 55% TS ~ 19.4 minutes*
Shaedon Sharpe is the first highly touted Blazers rookie I’ve gotten to watch up close. I wasn’t a huge basketball fan when Damian Lillard came to town (I was six, sue me). Sharpe’s season has been a weird one. And we should have expected that coming from the kid who didn’t play a single minute of college basketball.
While Sharpe has good vets around him, this situation isn’t suited to his needs. I said that when we first drafted him. Sure, his upside is there, but it didn’t make sense to draft a guy who needed that much development. A more NBA-ready prospect like Dyson Daniels would have been preferable.
Chauncey uses Sharpe in spurts. He doesn’t play for too long and is more like a spark plug. Even with Portland’s bench being ravaged by injuries, Sharpe doesn’t see more than 20-25 minutes on most nights. Dunks are the only way Sharpe has stood out thus far.
I’m not complaining about that, but it’s the truth. Sharpe doesn’t do much unless he’s actively breaking the laws of gravity. Like everybody on this team, Sharpe isn’t trying to let the ball stick in his hands. This season, Sharpe averages just 2.32* seconds per touch. He’s rarely looking to take a defender one-on-one, which makes him a weird player to grade. Whether it be his coaches or his mentality, Sharpe remains a mystery halfway through the season.
Outlook
Some Blazers fans, like myself at one point, were clamoring for Sharpe to get more minutes. Now, you see why he’s on somewhat of a leash. Defensively, like all high schoolers, Sharpe isn’t there yet. He has moments where he uses his fluidity and athleticism to stay with guys, but those moments are few and far between.
Sharpe gets bumped around and gambles a lot on defense. He’ll need a lot more reps to get more consistent on that end. And therein lies the dilemma with Sharpe. Portland is trying (and failing) to compete. They don’t have time to develop Sharpe, too. Leaving him by the wayside is a harsh way of putting things, but it’s not wrong.
I would love to tell you that Sharpe starts seeing more minutes and immediately becomes more aggressive. But I doubt things will work out that smoothly. Sharpe’s situation is eerily similar to that of Jermaine O’Neal. O’Neal was drafted straight out of high school but was glued to the end of the bench in Portland.
Once he got traded to Indiana after four seasons, he became an All-Star. Sharpe may be in the same precarious situation. He’s not being put in advantageous circumstances, and he’s not doing himself any favors by being so damn passive.
Walker Kessler (Utah Jazz)
Per 36 Minutes: 13.0 pts ~ 12.6 rebounds ~ 3.5(!) blocks ~ 1.7 BPM*
Walker Kessler was a giant in college. Standing at 7’0″, Kessler averaged a ridiculous 4.6 blocks as a sophomore at Auburn. His size was his biggest friend and enemy coming into the NBA. Like all centers, one lingering question looms large over their heads;
Can they survive in the modern NBA?
While Kessler wasn’t slow by any means, he wasn’t some physical freak like Jalen Duren who could guard five positions. And, like all rookie big men, it was hard to predict how much of an impact Kessler would have in Utah. I suppose it was foolish of me to ever wonder such things.
Kessler has been a defensive wizard this season. In fact, you could argue that he’s been better defensively than the guy who used to have his job. With Kessler on the floor, the Jazz have a 111.5* defensive rating. When he’s not on the floor, that number jumps to 119.7.*
That 8.2* points per 100 possession difference on defense ranks in the 95th* percentile of the league. Kessler’s presence at the rim is the only time that Utah’s defense is respectable. Each month, Kessler has been getting more and more minutes. Will Hardy is finding it harder not to start his rookie.
Let’s talk about why Kessler is has been so good defensively this season;
Interior Defensive Wizardary
This season, Walker has contested the fourth most two-pointers in the league (328)*. He is the only player with less than 800 minutes to crack the top ten 20 in the NBA*. Kessler makes the most of his minutes on the floor. Whenever he’s out there, he’s contesting everything.
And, it’s not just that’s contesting shots. Kessler forces misses, too. When opponents are within six feet of the basket, they shoot just 52.9%* from the field. Players usually shoot 64.7%* in this same area range. That’s a whopping -11.8%* difference. He’s an impenetrable wall.
Outlook
Like Gobert before him, playing in a drop coverage will burn Kessler. Donovan Mitchell torched Utah a couple of nights ago for a reason. Kessler is put into unenviable positions in pick-and-rolls. He stayed with the big guy, Evan Mobley, more often than not, but that sometimes led to easy scores for a penetrating Garland.
That cat-and-mouse game in the pick-and-roll is something that no rookie will ever be good at. You could play ten years in the league and not be good at that. And Kessler, like most rookies, has appeared overwhelmed in those PnR situations. That’s why Will Hardy hasn’t leaned on him that much yet.
But the defensive instincts are there. Walker isn’t a fish out of water on the perimeter, but he’s certainly not as agile as Gobert. I think reps will be his biggest friend in the future. Over the years, he’ll get to refine his craft and techniques. Walker has All-Defensive potential written all over him.
Bulking up to deal with the Embiid’s of the world isn’t a bad idea, either. But it looks like the Jazz went from having Rudy Gobert to another standout defensive player in Walker Kessler. Talk about transcending eras seamlessly.
How good will this draft class become? Leave a comment down below!
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