Evaluating Teams In The Fourth Quarter: A Case Study
Being able to execute late in playoff games is pivotal to winning games. So, today, let’s look at numerous teams’ fourth quarter strategies.
“Pressure does two things – burst pipes and create diamonds. And tell us how good teams are in the fourth quarter” – Brian Cook
Late-game execution separates the good teams from the great ones. In the postseason, it’s easy to spot the difference. Some teams don’t have what it takes to win close games, while others seem built for it.
So far in the postseason, we’ve seen varying degrees of success down the stretch of games. From Chris Paul to the Timberwolves, here’s a case study of fourth quarter action in the postseason.
Chris Paul Just Isn’t Fair
Chris Paul being excellent in the fourth quarter is nothing new to basketball fans. Paul put up another sensational clutch season, leading the Suns to be one of the best clutch teams in NBA history. So, when I watched him score 19 of his 28 points in the 4th against the Pelicans, completely taking over game three to take a 2-1 series lead, it wasn’t unusual.
But, that didn’t stop me from watching.
Paul has once again been putting up unearthly numbers this postseason. His 38:2 assist to turnover ratio is out of this world. He hasn’t turned the ball over since game one. CP-3 accounted for 70% of Phoenix’s offense in the 4th quarter.
I know Devin Booker is an important weapon for the Suns’ offense. But if things are close in the 4th quarter, there’s no one I would rather have than Chris Paul.
Minnesota’s Collapse (Not the first one)
The Minnesota Timberwolves had themselves quite the game three at home. Their two separate blown leads could have deserved a piece on their own, but to be honest, I was too shocked to get my thoughts onto paper. I think Charles Barkley summed things up well;
The reason Chuck said this, other than him being a national treasure, was this showing by the T-Wolves in the final period. The numbers speak for themselves;
Minnesota In The Fourth Quarter of Game 3 vs Memphis
- 12 points
- 16% FG
- 1/11 3-PT (9%)
- 3 Turnovers
- Outscored by 25 points
- Being in Minnesota doesn’t help
So, what went so wrong for Minnesota? Here’s what I found.
Bad Decisions
Minnesota’s collapse can boil down to one thing; bad decisions. A lot of their possessions felt rushed. As the Grizzlies creeped back into the game, Minnesota panicked. And, worst of all, Karl-Anthony Towns hardly got the ball down the stretch, attempting just one shot in the 4th quarter.
It wasn’t pretty for a reason.
Minnesota’s second collapse was as ugly as ugly gets. I don’t think they could’ve played worse if they tried. The worst part is that this series is far from over, but it feels over. Squandering that golden opportunity has shown us the dark side of the Timberwolves.
The side that showed us their inexperienced coach, their moody superstar, and their anti-resilient roster. Let’s see how game four goes later today.
Miami’s Non-Lowry Offense Wasn’t Great
Miami’s 21-0 third-quarter run seemingly put game three away in Atlanta. Miami built a double-digit lead and was looking for that demoralizing 3-0 series lead, something that an injury-riddled Hawks squad couldn’t overcome.
Then Kyle Lowry hurt himself near the end of the third quarter, and things spiraled out of control. Not only did they allow Trae Young do dominate them down the stretch, their offense sputtered. Here’s what I found.
Out of Rhythm
Miami’s offense in the fourth was simple. Other than a beautiful backdoor action to start the quarter, it was a lot of standing around. Their possessions were either very early in the shot clock or when they had to rush something in the final seconds.
There wasn’t a lot of passing. Instead, Miami ran a pick-and-roll almost every time down. In short, it was a mess. Miami couldn’t build any semblence of consistency because they weren’t attempting to. Not having Lowry there was evident. They had nobody to settle them down and have a good possession.
Consider last night’s fourth quarter a time machine back to their miserable 2021 playoffs exit.
As Lowry tries to make a wolverine-like comeback, Miami will need a steady hand at the guard spot. Whether that be Butler, Herro, or Gabe Vincent, someone needs to calm this team down when they need to be.
Sort of like a toddler.
Will The Jazz Ever Learn?
(Note: This isn’t even about Utah’s fourth quarters. I just like making fun of them in general)
The Utah Jazz did it again. They have once again found a way to reinforce the idea that they’re poorly constructed. All series long, this Mavericks team has held their own without Luka Doncic, who’s returning in a limited capacity today.
On offense, it’s a lot of threes, which is what Dallas wants them to do. Donovan Mitchell has been awful in this series.
Defensively, it’s the same things we saw last season. Their perimeter defense can’t guard a parked car. That flaw leads to Dallas getting all the open looks they’ve been getting.
This Statmuse tweet doesn’t even seem real;
A Luka-less Mavs offense should have been lifeless. Instead, Jalen Brunson has made Utah his bitch. For the second straight season, Utah’s numbers are a mirage. Their “best offense in the league” is being baited into playing a certain way. There haven’t been prolonged stretches where you’ve thought, ‘wow, Utah’s offense is amazing!’
And defensively, there’s a reason Rudy Gobert longs for someone like Devin Booker, someone who at least tries on that end. Assuming the Jazz lose game four later today, I will be the first to say;
I hope this team has a long and painful look in the mirror. This offseason should be fun, to say the least.
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