Golden State Found the Blueprint To Escape Uncharted Territory
Down 0-2 to the Sacramento Kings put Golden State in uncharted territory. But, even without Draymond, the Warriors got ugly to stay alive.
It was hard to fathom that the dynastic Warriors were in uncharted territory. In the past decade of playoff basketball, the Warriors, with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, have seen just about everything. Suspensions. Brutal injuries. Game 7s and tense overtime periods. 3-1 comebacks for them and, famously, for their opponents. That’s the experience one gets during a dynasty.
But Steve Kerr and co. had never been here before. After two painful, narrow road losses to the “Beam Team” Kings, the Warriors were down 0-2 for the first time in the Curry era. Without their two best defenders and their backs against the walls, the Warriors found the winning blueprint to save their title defense.
On Draymond Green
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Draymond Green, one of the four most prominent figures in this dynasty, wasn’t able to play in the most important game of the dynasty he helped build. Sure, the Warriors won, but not having Green took away from the tension of this game.
Green’s career is chalk full of controversial incidents. It’s part of his MO. The Warriors wouldn’t have won four rings without Green’s heart and energy. If that comes with groin attacks to Steven Adams and Lebron James (in the same postseason), so be it.
We’ve all seen Green’s vicious stomp of a defenseless Domantas Sabonis while he was on the floor. Sure, Sabonis may have grabbed his leg. I’m not denying that. But Draymond Green didn’t trip over Sabonis because his “stride length was altered.” He did a damn heel click on another human being. Green exerted force on Sabonis’ body like he was stepping on an insect. Anybody that says this wasn’t intentional is lying to themselves.
Green is in the wrong here. There’s no rationalizing his actions. But a suspension? That’s where things go a little too far for me. For starters, that isn’t how things work in the postseason. Barring an all-out brawl, a suspension wasn’t warranted. You need four flagrant foul “points” to receive an automatic one-game suspension in the postseason. Draymond got ejected and received a flagrant two; or two points. All signs pointed to a fine for the future Hall of Famer.
Instead, the NBA made it personal. And they did it pretty blatantly, too. In the press release where they announced the suspension (which they released at midnight Eastern time, by the way), the league stated that Green’s suspension was “based in part on Green’s history of unsportsmanlike acts.” Huh?
Adam Silver being in the building for the fracas certainly didn’t help Green’s case. But, it seems like the league wanted to make an example of Green. There have been just as many instances of Green toeing the line and receiving no punishment from the league (cough, cough, Jordan Poole). He was seemingly punished for how many headaches he’s caused the league over the years, not based off this one incident.
Luckily for both Green and the Warriors, we can put all of this behind us. Despite all signs pointing to a 0-3 hole for the defending champs, Green’s absence didn’t kill Golden State’s season. They found a way to win without their defensive engine and emotional leader.
Here’s how they did it.
Curry Calculus
The Warriors were outplayed by the Kings in the first two games of this series. For the most part, that happened when Steph Curry wasn’t on the court. Even with all the problems the Warriors have endured this season, they’re still lethal when the 2x MVP flies around the hardwood.
In games one and two, the Warriors outscored the Kings by 14 points in Curry’s 78 minutes of action. In the 18 minutes Steph spent on the bench, the Warriors were outscored by 18. That, in a nutshell, was why the Warriors found themselves in a 0-2 hole entering last night.
Steve Kerr’s bench was already thin entering this series. This wasn’t the same veteran rotation that was so reliable last season. The young guys that the Warriors bet on last offseason haven’t panned out. Even guys like Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo were struggling to be productive.
Meanwhile, Malik Monk was outproducing anything Golden State could muster off their bench by himself. In game three, however, things were different. For one, Monk didn’t go nuclear again. The Kentucky guard shot just 1/9 from the field.
But, more importantly, the Warriors finally got some bench production. Moses Moody, in particular, was the needed kick Golden State was missing on the road. The second-year guard scored 13 points in fifteen minutes, giving some juice to a unit that was all but dead just a few days ago.
Add in 8 assists and 4 steals from DiVincenzo, and you’ve got yourself enough to not collapse when Curry isn’t on the floor. Not only did the Warriors outscore Sacramento’s bench, but they also survived the non-Curry minutes.
The Dubs were a +24 when Curry was on the floor and a mere -7 when he was off. That’s still not great, but this Curry Calculus of sorts will be one of the most important factors in this series. Curry needs his rest to be at his best. If the Warriors can’t survive when he’s not on the court, any chances of surviving this series are slim to none.
But if they can recreate some of what they showed in game three, a comeback becomes much more likely.
Possession Battle
This postseason, whoever wins the possession battle has had a lot of success. Now, I know what you’re thinking. Doesn’t more possessions correlate with winning? Not necessarily. Think about it like this: show me a team with offensive rebounds aplenty, and I’ll show you a bad team.
The Rockets led the league in offensive rebounds this year and won 20 games. The Celtics, conversely, finished 20th in offensive boards and won 57 games. This season, three of the five worst offensive-rebounding teams made the postseason.
Even forcing turnovers doesn’t always equate to a strong team. The Raptors led the league in both forcing turnovers and preventing their own, and they’re sitting on their couches right now. Milwaukee, on the other hand, was last in preventing turnovers during the regular season. They’re the current title favorites.
In general, being more efficient than your opponent is the best recipe for success. They don’t call it a “make-or-miss league” for nothing. The two teams with the biggest differential in effective field goal percentage — Golden State and Boston — went to the Finals last season.
But, this postseason, possessions have become more paramount than ever before. And this Warriors/Kings series has been at the forefront of that idea. Simply being more efficient than your opponent isn’t enough.
Even though the Warriors had the third-best eFG% differential in the league this year (+3.1%), they were 29th in turnover rate. They coughed up 20 turnovers in game two, 12 of them being errant passes. Some passes sailed into the front row. Others went straight to a Kings defender, spurring a fastbreak the other way.
So, although the Warriors have been (much) more efficient than the Kings, they’ve been killing themselves in the possessions game. Between offensive rebounds and turnovers, the Warriors were giving up an astounding 10-possession per game advantage to Sacramento in the first two contests. The result was that a team with a true shooting percentage mark of 59.7 going down 0-2 to a team with a mark of 55.3.
In game three, the Warriors needed to win the possession battle to swing back the series pendulum. With the help of Kevon Looney, they did just that. There’s a reason the Warriors chucked up 100 field goals last night.
Looney snagged 20 rebounds, with nine of them being on the offensive end. Golden State grabbed 18 offensive rebounds on the night, leading to 24 second chance points. Those 18 offensive rebounds matched the total the Warriors had in the first two games combined.
Along with those offensive rebounds came added ball security. Perhaps not having Draymond Green cut down on some of the…adventurous passes this offense breeds. Regardless, Draymond or not, 11 turnovers greatly limited the Kings’ ability to get easy baskets against a non-set defense.
We’ve seen the possession battle become important in other series. The Cavaliers and Knicks have each won a game by dominating the amount of possessions they have. Los Angeles has made it surprisingly tough for the juggernaut Suns by dominating the offensive glass.
But, there hasn’t been a series than personifies this shift quite like this one. And the Warriors demonstrated how important rebounding and turnovers are in the playoffs. They cleaned things up in game three, which is why they cruised to victory.
Series Outlook
I’ll admit, I was a little bit concerned when the Warriors went down 0-2. But, along with winning a game without Draymond or Gary Payton II (who was sick), the Warriors must be feeling a lot better about themselves. Not only do they have the best player in this series, Andrew Wiggins has somehow acclimated himself in record time.
Add in what should be a WWE-style return for Draymond in game four, and it seems that the series momentum has shifted quite a bit. The Kings can’t hit the side of a barn with their outside shooting, and we saw that they struggled to score when the Warriors weren’t gifting them possessions. During the regular season, this run-and-gun offense had a 104.7 offensive rating in the halfcourt. In this series, that number has plummeted to 90.9.
Now, the Warriors still have to climb back. Even winning game four doesn’t get them out of the woods. They’ll have to win at Sacramento to win this series, which isn’t a cakewalk. Steve Kerr still hasn’t found a defender or a scheme to stay in front of De’Aaron Fox, either.
Regardless, Golden State certainly got their swagger back. They needed to thump Sacramento last night to remind everybody that they are the defending champs. And, more importantly, the Warriors busted out the blueprint to win this series. If they control the ever-important possession important battle and survive when Steph isn’t on the floor, they can pull off the “upset.”
Last night’s triumph got the Warriors out of the deep end. Out of that uncharted territory. Barring another BS suspension, they’ll be at full strength for the rest of this wildly entertaining series. Amidst all the talk of their dynasty crumbling, the Warriors are still the Warriors. The indominable force that you have to kill ten times before they’re actually six feet under.
Or, as Steph Curry so perfectly put it after pouring in 36 points;
“They say Draymond’s got a history? So do we, and we know how to bounce back”
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