Grading The Players I Liked and Disliked Coming Into 2023
Coming into the season, I named 5 players I liked and disliked, respectively. I thought I could predict their 2023 seasons. How did I do?
Predictions are not easy to make. And I’ve never been someone to be great at making predictions. Entering this season, I named five players I liked and disliked. This wasn’t a measure of whether I liked the players personally or not but rather how I thought they would fare this season. I tried to logically use cherry-picked stats to back up my predictions.
Nearly 7 months later, I’m going to see how well I did.
The Grading System
After talking about how my predictions went, I’m going to grade them. It’s a good way to track my progress and see how poorly I inevitably did. My grading system is as follows;
If I nailed a prediction, I’ll give myself a +2 rating (or two thumbs up). If I really messed up a prediction, that’s a -2 rating. Anything in the middle will either be a +1 or a -1, or even a neutral. We’ll tally everything up at the end and see how I did across all ten pre-season predictions.
Javonte Green (Chicago Bulls)
My Projections: 9.9 pts ~ 5.7 rebounds ~ 1.2 steals~ 51% FG (6.8 FGA) ~ 38% 3-PT ~ 1.0 BPM
Javonte Green was set to play a meaningful role on a Bulls team looking to compete. On a team lacking wing defense, Green was slated to help Billy Donovan’s bench a ton. Green was superb in 2022, and I was expecting a big leap forward.
I was hoping for a larger offensive role and a more refined offensive game. Could we see Green score more off the catch? In addition to his tenacious defense, I thought the 29-year-old would establish himself as one of the best two-way guys in the league — in a contract year, no less.
Instead, Green has spent most of the year injured. He hasn’t played since December 31st due to a knee debridement procedure. While there’s a chance he returns before the postseason (if the Bulls even make it that far), the swingman has only appeared in 28 games this season.
It should be noted that Green was very productive in those 28 games, albeit not at the high point that I had set for him entering the season. Green was shooting 38% from beyond the arc with a career-high 2.5 defensive box plus/minus.
With Javonte on the floor, Chicago was outscoring opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions. If he had stayed healthy, Green would be helping the lifeless Bulls. Instead, it’s a lost season — and one in a contract season, no less.
Grade: Neutral (not enough data)
Herb Jones (New Orleans Pelicans)
My Projection: 12.1 points ~ 4.6 rebounds ~ 2.0 steals ~ 48% FG (7.9 FGA) ~ 35% 3-PT ~ 1.5 BPM
Was picking a sophomore low-hanging fruit for this exercise? Perhaps. But there was too much not to pick Herb Jones. Coming off a rookie season where he was an elite wing defender, I thought we would see Jones blossom into a Mikal Bridges-lite player this season.
Instead, Jones more or less is the same player he was last season. While that’s not a bad thing per se, it’s not what I was expecting. While Jones remains an elite defender (1.7 DBPM), his offensive woes have remained.
The southpaw is one of the worst and least respected shooters in the league. New Orleans has struggled with spacing all year, and Jones doesn’t help that problem. He’s been shooting just 29.3% from beyond the arc this season. Jones’ free throw percentage also plummeted by nearly 10 points (84% to 75%).
Jones is another example of the non-linear development curve. Perhaps we’ve seen too many Luka’s and Trae’s in recent seasons — players who take that leap into stardom without breaking a sweat.
But it’s hard for a non-shooter like Jones to really leave a mark in the league. In an era where shooting is paramount, Jones needs to develop a jumper to take the next level — I know he’s capable of hitting. While we wait, we can enjoy him locking people up.
Grade: -1
Jordan McLaughlin (Minnesota Timberwolves)
Projection: 8.0 points ~ 4.5 asts ~ 45% FG (6.4 FGA) ~ 0.8 BPM
When I saw Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch playing McLaughlin big minutes over D’Angelo Russell in the postseason, I knew he was the real deal. Sure, the little USC point guard didn’t wow you with his scoring or flair. In fact, his scoring average and field goal attempts had steadily decreased year-by-year since his rookie campaign.
But when a role player is playing more minutes than the star point guard, you know there’s a reason for it. And there was. For a team that lacked maturity and stability, McLaughlin was the steady hand that settled everybody down. That would be especially vital after the Rudy Gobert trade gutted this team’s depth.
I was hoping that not only would McLaughlin help smooth out the weird spacing on offense but also contribute more in the scoring column. Do you know what happened instead? He missed most of the season with a calf strain.
Am I cursed? McLaughlin’s numbers look like I made a massive mistake. The guy’s averaged just 3.9 points per game this season. But I wouldn’t call Jordan’s season a total loss. He’s still managed to put up a respectable 0.7 DBPM.
When McLaughlin has been on the floor this season, the Timberwolves have a 7.4 net rating. Surprisingly effective for a team that’s been in such disarray all year. Regardless, that calf strain makes it impossible for me to fairly gauge his season.
Grade: Neutral (not enough data)
Jusuf Nurkic (Portland Trail Blazers)
16.9 pts ~ 10.2 rebs ~ 3.7 asts ~ 55% FG (12.2 FGA) ~ 1.3 BPM (Projection)
{Sigh}
It was probably wistful thinking to envision a career year for Jusuf Nurkic. Off the heels of a now albatross-like $70 million dollar extension he signed over the summer, I thought Nurk would return to form. From improved post-scoring and playmaking and (fingers crossed) some luck health-wise, my expectations were (unrealistically) high.
What followed was Nurkic’s worst season as a Blazer. Not only has he spent lots of time in street clothes (20 missed games), but he’s also made Portland worse when he’s on the floor. Half of the time, it doesn’t look like Nurkic is trying. He’s moving half-speed, almost like he’s trying to navigate through molasses or sand.
Nurkic remains a very inefficient post scorer, as he scores on less than half (46.7%) of his post-ups, and he averages just 0.89 points per touch. That’s with him averaging 3.8 post-ups per game, sixth most in the entire NBA.
It seems unlikely that the big, brooding center will ever regain his agility. That big, 4-year extension of his also seems like a mistake, and we’re not even finished with the first season. I whiffed on this prediction like Mike Trout did on those Ohtani heaters.
Rating: -2
Chimezie Metu (Sacramento Kings)
11.2 pts ~ 5.5 rebs ~ 48% FG (9.4 FGA) ~ 34% 3-PT ~ 0.5 BPM (Projection)
On the surface, it again looks like I didn’t do a good job making predictions. Before the season, even I had to admit that it would be hard for Metu to have a substantial role with the Kings. I knew that Sabonis, Barnes, and Keegan Murray would get priority minutes-wise. On most other teams, the 26-year-old forward would be getting more than 10.8 minutes a game.
And sure, Metu hasn’t averaged 11.2 points this season as I predicted. Instead, he’s played the most effective basketball of his young career. Unlike Richuan Holmes, who is an afterthought in the rotation, Metu has played in 59 games this season. Mike Brown has consistently used him off the bench.
He’s also on track to post a career-high in win shares per 48 (.146), which approximates the amount of wins a player contributes every game. Add in solid defense and somewhat efficient scoring, and you’ve got yourself a solid role player on a team sitting comfortably as the 3rd seed in the West.
If there’s one negative to Metu’s season, it’s been his outside shooting. After ending last season shooting well, I thought he could continue to stretch the floor. But, instead of turning into his teammate Trey Lyles, Metu has imitated another one of his teammates: Domantas Sabonis. In this instance, that’s not a good thing. Metu has shot just 25% from beyond the arc this season.
Still, it’s not like the Kings don’t have a role for him. There’s a ton of value for role players on frisky contenders like Sacramento. And Metu is one of them.
Rating: +1
Tyler Herro (Miami Heat)
18.5 pts ~ 4.7 rebs ~ 43% FG (15.9 FGA) ~ 38% 3-PT ~ 0.3 BPM (Projection)
Tyler Herro signed a massive extension last summer. The reigning sixth man of the year was set to play an even more important role for the Miami Heat this season. On a creaky, old, veteran team, Herro was the necessary shot in the arm to get things going.
So, why was I pessimistic about the Kentucky kid this year? Well, I didn’t think his game would take the next step. We know Herro can score the ball. That’s not in question, and it really hasn’t been since the guy was drafted.
But could Herro become more than that? Could he become a pseudo-backup point guard on a team lacking floor generals? Maybe there would be a more concerted effort defensively? Nope. Herro’s season has been what it’s been for the past few seasons;
- High volume scoring
- Some playmaking (with lots of turnovers)
- Nothing else
In 2023, Herro has been chucking more triples than ever before. 48% of his field goal attempts have been 3s this season, but that’s caused his efficiency to decline. Herro still averages 2.6 turnovers a game while managing just 4.3 assists. Again, there’s been no growth.
The one caveat to Herro’s season is that he’s wholly important to the zombified Miami Heat. Rarely will you find offensive possessions where things aren’t totally suffocates because of a lack of space. Tyler Herro is vital to the Miami Heat. But, it’s not like he’s been that great this season.
Rating: +1
John Wall (Los Angeles Clippers)
11.6 pts ~ 44% FG ~ 36% 3-PT ~ -0.3 BPM (Projection)
Remember when people were hailing John Wall as the savior and floor general of the Clippers? Everybody was caught up in the story of Wall returning to the court to play basketball. And while I’m a sucker for a good story (see: World Baseball Classic), I think people forgot what type of player Wall was.
Everybody was entangled in the player that Wall was in Washington, not the injury-prone, ball hog that he has become. There’s a reason the Clippers cut ties with Wall at the trade deadline (but then signed his carbon copy in Russell Westbrook for some reason).
My pre-season predictions for John were light in hindsight. He had a -1.2 BPM with a 30.6% usage rate! That’s higher than Kawhi Leonard’s! The Clippers got outscored by 7.1 points per 100 possessions with the former All-Star on the floor.
If a player I predicted to do poorly got cut midseason, I think that means I did something right.
Rating: +2
Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks)
17.6 pts ~ 5.2 asts ~ 46% FG ~ 34% 3-PT ~ 0.6 BPM (Projection)
Let’s not talk about it and just give myself two thumbs down.
Rating: -2 (It would be lower if my grading system allowed it)
Ben Simmons (Brooklyn Nets)
When Ben Simmons was traded to the Nets, I envisioned him more or less picking up where he left off in Philly before his playoff burnout. Brooklyn needed defense and rebounding, two things Simmons excelled at. He didn’t need to score on a team with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Now that Irving and Durant are long gone, the Nets are heading toward a rebuild. Normally, a 26-year-old who has already signed a massive contract extension would be the new face of your franchise. Instead, Simmons is getting CD (coach’s decision)-DNPs. Oh, I’m sorry. It’s a “sore knee” and a ” back nerve impingement.” My bad.
Simmons is a shell of his former self. You can blame rust all you want, but Simmons doesn’t seem interested in playing basketball anymore. He seems resigned to collecting his contract and then leaving the league. There’s no fire, no fight.
I was pessimistic about the former #1 overall pick coming into the season, but I didn’t know things would get this bad. Not only is Simmons not playing, but when he does play, he plays sparingly. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid, a player people thought about trading to give Simmons the keys to the 76ers organization, is on the inside track to winning MVP. Oh, how the turntables…
The Nets can’t trade Simmons, and is there a reality where somebody gives him a contract after his current one expires? Who would want this guy? I mean, there are almost no redeeming qualities for a shell-shocked, scared 6’10” forward who can’t shoot.
Was it low-hanging fruit to pick Simmons to have a shitty season? Yeah. But nobody else is responsible for his career downturn other than himself. The onus is on him to turn things around. And it doesn’t look like he has the tools to do so.
Rating: +2
Anthony Davis (Los Angeles Lakers)
22.6 pts ~ 9.7 rebs ~ 3.2 stocks ~ 51% FG ~ 3.5 BPM (Projection)
After his spectacular showing in the bubble, where Davis was arguably the most dominant force in the league, the Brow’s career had taken a downturn. He couldn’t stay on the floor because every time he jumped, he would land awkwardly and miss a month.
As the Lakers’ situation got direr, so was Davis’. He was supposed to be letting Lebron “relax” more in the regular season. Instead, James had to run the show while Davis sat on the sidelines. And even when Davis did play, his shooting touch had escaped him. He didn’t look like the physical force we saw in the Bubble.
And, if we’re being honest, most of those flaws still remain. Davis again missed lots of time with injuries this season. I still cringe a little bit every time he jumps — worrying about another lower leg injury. AD’s outside jumper has come more infrequently, but he’s still shooting just 26% from 3-PT land.
But I would be lying if I said 2023 wasn’t a triumphant return to form. Davis has looked like the most dominant force in the league at times, bullying teams on both ends. He’s posted his higher PER since 2019. His 62.8% true shooting is the best of his career. Davis’ 6.2 BPM is closer to his career norms.
While he’s on track to play around 60 games again, Davis has held things down with Lebron James out of the lineup (with the help of MVP Austin Reaves). On both ends of the floor, Davis has looked rejuvenated and reenergized.
I’m still deathly afraid of another injury, but at the very least, the product on the court has improved. I’ll gladly lick my wounds on this one.
Rating: -1
The Final Tally
Alright. The moment of truth. The moment you’ve all been waiting for. After tallying up all my prediction points for all the ten players I liked/disliked coming into the season, my final score was….
0
Yep. I was perfectly average on making these predictions based on my completely arbitrary ranking system! How anti-climactic.
How Well Did I Do On My Predictions? Leave a Comment Down Below!
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