Heat vs Lakers: Finals Preview
Finally, the NBA Finals are set. Certainly the way we got here was a lot different, but we are here. The Lebron-led Lakers against the Miami Heat. Who will be winning this championship?
Finally, the NBA Finals are set. Certainly the way we got here was a lot different, but we are here. The Lebron-led Lakers against the Miami Heat. Who will be winning this championship?
Obviously some fans will say this series will be “easy” or “bad” because the Lakers will run through the Heat. This is not necessarily true. The Heat aren’t a fluke, we’ve already figured this out. So this series will be very interesting and I’ll be breaking it down.
Miami Heat
The Heat have surprised everybody and made the NBA Finals as the large underdogs. But they actually have a fighters chance against the Heat. Dragic and Robinson aren’t great defensively, but will be guarding KCP and Danny Green. That shouldn’t be too hard. The Lakers can’t really guard Robinson or Dragic on the perimeter, so the Heat have an advantage.
Lebron and Jimmy Butler matchup very good. Similar sizes and they are both very strong. I think that the Heat should be satisfied with Butler on Lebron. They also have Jae Crowder, Iguodala and even Bam Adebayo to throw at Lebron. Another plus for the Heat is Lebron will have to try on defense while guarding Butler. So he will waste more of his energy, which obviously benefits the Heat.
Jae Crowder might be guarding Dwight Howard or Javale McGee during this series, but I see the Lakers going small instead of going big. If that is the case, he will likely be guarding Markieff Morris. I think Crowder will have ad advantage against Morris, but not against Howard or McGee for obvious reasons.
Bam on AD is another favorable matchup for the Heat. Bam locked down Giannis and AD is another great player, but Bam is ready for the task. Bam just has to make it tough on AD and make him take more jumpshots.
On offense, the Heat have much more depth than the Lakers do. Herro, Iggy, maybe Olynyk off the bench is much better than what the Lakers put out there. Look for the Heat to get Jimmy Butler involved. They need to make Lebron James work. AD isn’t a great pick and roller defender, so look for lots of pick and rolls to Bam Adebayo. The Heat also have great shooters on the perimeter to stretch out the Lakers D.
And they have the much better coach in the series in Erik Spoelstra. Spoelstra hasn’t gotten the credit he deserves with this Heat team. He perfectly utilizes all of his players and his schemes for each opponent are near-perfect.
So the Heat definitely have a fighters chance in this series. They matchup up well with the Lakers and Erik Spoelstra is great as making opposing teams uncomfortable. On offense they need to get Jimmy Butler involved and make Lebron James work. They also need to get AD in the pick and rolls with Bam and make it tough for LA. And if Jae and Duncan start hitting 3’s, look out. So the Heat can definitely make this a series.
LA Lakers
The Lakers have been very good in the playoffs because of the superb play of Lebron and AD. But now they are facing a very good and deep Miami Heat team. How will the Lakers fair?
Defensively, the Lakers matchup pretty well. KCP will likely guard Goran Dragic, and that is a bit of a mismatch in favor of the Heat, but KCP shouldn’t be getting exposed. Danny Green will have to run around chasing Duncan Robinson which should be fun.
Lebron will be guarding Jimmy Butler which is a good matchup for the Heat. Lebron likely will go into kill-mode and give everything he has on defense.
I think the Lakers will go small and play more Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma. Whichever one starts (likely Morris) will be guarding Crowder. Morris is more defensive and Kuzma is more offensive. Crowder is better than both however and Morris or Kuzma have to stay locked in on the sharp-shooting Crowder.
AD will be guarded by Bam and this will be a problem. AD hasn’t faced a great defender in these playoffs, until Bam. Bam was a great Giannis-stopper and looks to do the same against AD. AD will have to use his entire bag of offensive tricks. But AD cannot settle for jumpshots and play into Miami’s hand. He has to attack more often than not.
On offense the Lakers have looked very good, but again they are playing a very good Heat team. I think the trick for the Lakers will be their shooting. If they can get it going from 3, then it opens everything up a driving Lebron and AD in the post. But the Lakers will need some other offense from guys like Kuzma or Rondo to beat this Heat team. It can’t just be Lebron and AD.
Frank Vogel has been a much better coach in these playoffs and the Lakers have made some great adjustments. But he will have to be at his best against Einstein.
But with all of that being said, the Lakers have to one card to trump all of this analyzing. Lebron James. James has been on a mission and has “that look.” So whatever the Heat throw at James, expect Lebron to beat it at some point. Lebron will have to be great, but as we have seen, the Lakers have been willing to follow.
My Final Verdict: I think that the Heat have the better overall roster and they will make things problematic for the Lakers. But I have the Lakers winning in 6. Lebron is… Lebron and all he needs is some sort of help from Kuzma or whomever. But the Heat will not go down easy. They will adjust and make changes. Their offense can be very explosive. I wouldn’t be surprised if this series went 7 games or even if the Heat won. But I expect the Lakers to take this Heat team very seriously and they will be getting Lebron his 4th title.
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