January Power Rankings: Over/Under Check-Ins for Every Team
Every year, Vegas releases over/under win projections. In addition to ranking all 30 teams, let’s see every teams’ progress.
As we enter the dog days of February, it’s time to check on every team’s over/under. Before the season, Vegas releases their win total projections for every team. It’s impossible to predict injuries, trades, or potential turmoil. But, none of that matters. What teams are on track to surpass their projections? Or fail to reach them?
Warning!
These power rankings are incredibly subjective. I may value certain aspects of teams more than you do. This is a great time to remind you that the power rankings are never wrong. I stand by every assessment I make until I can either scream vindication at something being correct or wiggle my way out of something being wrong. You have been warned.
And this year, in addition to ranking every team, every team will be in tiers. Here are my categories for this season, from lowest to highest;
- Wembanyama Watch: They’re rebuilding and all they care about are some ping-pong balls in May.
- No Half-Measures, Walter: Not bad enough to tank, not good enough to be competitive
- Play-In Hopefuls: Mediocre teams/rebuilding teams that are just starting to get competitive. Being a top ten seed in their respective conference is a good thing.
- Play-In or Better: They’re going to be in the mix all year long, but don’t be surprised to see them in the Play-In Tournament.
- Playoff Locks: If they were in the play-in tournament, we would all be surprised
- Fringe Contenders: A piece away from being title contenders
- Contenders: The only thing that can stop them is injuries. Or drama. One or the other.
Without further ado, let’s rank some teams.
Tier 1: Contenders
#1 – Philadelphia 76ers (Last Month: #6)
Preseason Over/Under: 50.5
Record: (32-17)
Net Rating: 3.8 (5th)
Things weren’t looking so good for Philly when they were 12-12 in early December. Hitting their 51-win projection seemed unreasonable, as did their hopes of contending. Since then, the 76ers have gone 20-5 and have earned this #1 spot.
De’Anthony Melton has replaced Tyrese Maxey in the starting lineup, giving the 76ers more defensive versatility. Embiid and Harden remain dominant, and this Sixers team is the best one we’ve seen in some time. With Boston’s recent slip-ups, the top seed in the East isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.
51 wins seem very achievable now, especially with how well this team has been playing.
Confidence on the Over: 10/10
#2 – Denver Nuggets (Last Month: #4)
Preseason Over/Under: 50.5
Record: (35-16)
Net Rating: 4.1 (4th)
The Denver Nuggets won 48 games last year. That was without Jamal Murray for the entire season and Michael Porter Jr. playing all but nine games. So, a 50.5 over/under for a healthy Nuggets team seemed a little disrespectful. And it has been.
Nikola Jokic has a real chance to win three straight MVPs. Aaron Gordon is in the midst of a career season. Denver has been nearly unbeatable at home, and they’ve held onto the #1 seed in the West for weeks.
They’re on a 56-win pace right now, well on their way to hitting the over.
Confidence on the Over: 10/10
#3 – Boston Celtics (Last Month: #1)
Preseason Over/Under: 54.5
Record: (36-15)
Net Rating: 5.7 (1st)
The Celtics have hit something of a roadblock. At their best, they remain the best team in the league. I don’t think any other team can replicate their dominance. But, in recent weeks, the Celtics have slowed down.
Marcus Smart’s injury has set the offense back to the stone ages. The Celtics have been struggling to score without Smart, and their overreliance on the Jay’s and 3-PT shooting is evident. While Joe Mazzulla’s defense has turned a corner, Boston looked human in January.
They’re still on pace for around 58 wins, but winning 55 games isn’t easy. This isn’t as much of a lock as it once was, but I think Boston will be fine going forward.
Confidence on the Over: 8.5/10
Tier 2: Fringe Contenders
#4 – Brooklyn Nets (Last Month: #2)
Preseason Over/Under: 50.5
Record: (31-19)
Net Rating: 3.4 (6th)
Before Kevin Durant went down with an injury, the Nets were going to blow this win total out of the water. Now, things are a little more interesting. Even with Claxton and Irving playing brilliantly, the Nets are on pace for 50.8 wins.
Getting Durant back sooner rather than later will assure them of hitting 51 wins. But if he can’t, the Nets may not eclipse the 50-win threshold. I don’t think they care, though. Brooklyn may be at the top of the “I Don’t Want To See Them In The First Round” list.
Confidence on the Over: 6.5/10
#5 – Memphis Grizzlies (Last Month: #5)
Preseason Over/Under: 49.5
Record: (32-18)
Net Rating: 4.3 (3rd)
The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the deepest teams in the league. Even with their recent five-game (eventful) road trip, Memphis is on pace to reach 50 wins once again. It’s remarkable what this small market team has been able to do.
But their recent five-game skid was very revealing. Memphis’ lack of shooting is painfully evident in the halfcourt. It’s also easy to forget how young this team is. Do they have the resolve and maturity to handle the ups and downs of a deep postseason run?
50 wins isn’t much of a hurdle for this team. What comes after the regular season will be their real test.
Confidence on the Over: 9/10
Tier 3: Playoff Locks
#6 – Sacramento Kings: (Last Month: #12)
Preseason Over/Under: 34.5
Record: (28-21)
Net Rating: 2.8 (7th)
I don’t have to say much here. The Kings and their beam are making me regret saying their hot start was “fluky.” While Mike Brown’s defense is far from where he wants it, the Kings are firmly above the rest of the crowded Western Conference.
Kevin Huerter doesn’t seem to miss, and Domantas Sabonis is playing the best basketball of his career. The 17-year playoff drought looks like it’s going to be over, and Kings fans couldn’t be happier. Sacramento is set to win 47 games for the first time since 2005.
Confidence on the Over: 12000000/10
#7 – Cleveland Cavaliers (Last Month: #3)
Preseason Over/Under: 46.5
Record: (31-22)
Net Rating: 4.6 (2nd)
As I talked about last week, the Cavaliers are frustrating. They’re good, but they have another gear to hit. Their struggles on the road and against teams they should be beating have continued. Another wing option is desperately needed, but do they have the assets to get one at the deadline?
Currently, the Cavs are set to hit 48 wins. It should say something that this team will win nearly 50 games, and I think they can be better. I’m confident they’ll hit the over. Donovan Mitchell just came back from injury — and so did Dean Wade.
I still love what the Cavaliers have going forward, but I just think they can be better in the present.
Confidence on the Over: 10/10
#8 – Milwaukee Bucks (Last Month: #8)
Preseason Over/Under: 53.5
Record: (34-17)
Net Rating: 2.3 (8th)
Injuries have left the Bucks undermanned for a majority of this season. Despite Giannis’s continued two-way brilliance, the absence of Khris Middleton (even when he’s been on the court) has been noticeable.
The Bucks are still on pace for 54 wins, but cohesion is their biggest concern. How many reps will this team get together? Can Middleton get reintegrated before the playoffs?
It’s impressive that this team is 17 games over 0.500. And, even with their struggles this season, I trust this team in the playoffs. They’ve made it out of the first round for the past four seasons. But this team has a few more wrinkles to iron out. 54 wins may be a stretch with that in mind.
Confidence on the Under: 7/10
#9 – New Orleans Pelicans (Last Month: #7)
Preseason Over/Under: 45.5
Record: (26-26)
Net Rating: 1.3 (12th)
The Pelicans’ hot start to the season has been undone by injuries. Brandon Ingram recently returned from a toe injury that sidelined him for nearly 30 games. All-Star starter Zion Williamson hasn’t played since January 4th. Despite having pretty good depth, New Orleans struggled in January, going 5-11.
New Orleans is now in the thick of things in the West. In most situations, a team like this would panic and make some ill-fated move at the trade deadline. But exercising patience would go a long way for New Orleans. When the trio of McCollum, Williamson, and Ingram shares the floor, New Orleans has outscored opponents by 19.5 points per 100 possessions!
When healthy, this Pelicans team is potent. Getting healthy would make that 46-win total much more achievable.
Confidence on the Over: 6.5/10
Tier 4: Play-In or Better
#10 – Miami Heat (Last Month: #18)
Preseason Over/Under: 49.5
Record: (29-23)
Net Rating: 0.1 (18th)
While it hasn’t been pretty, the Heat are six games over 0.500 and out of the play-in tournament. They’ve found ways to win with limited depth and navigated injuries to key players. Do I love this Miami team? Not particularly. But, despite their terrible start, they’ve turned things around.
In January, Miami had the best defense in the league. But, to find sustained success, their offense will have to be better than 25th. Miami is another team I wouldn’t want to see in the first round. You would come out of that series with a few more bruises than when it started (assuming you even win).
That 50-win benchmark may be unreachable, however. Unless Kyle Lowry wakes up to be six years younger tomorrow, the Heat will continue to have to grind for wins.
Confidence on the Over: 5.5/10
#11 – LA Clippers (Last Month: #9)
Preseason Over/Under: 52.5
Record: (29-25)
Net Rating: 0.0 (19th)
If you bet the over on this Clippers team, I’m sorry, you deserve to lose money. No matter how good their roster looked on paper, you knew injuries and load management would drive them down. This over/under was made under two assumptions;
- Kawhi Leonard would be prime Kawhi Leonard from the jump
- Kawhi Leonard would play 75+ games
While Leonard has been awesome in recent weeks, he still isn’t playing every night. It hasn’t helped that this Clippers roster is clunky and dysfunctional. Even if they make the necessary adjustments at the trade deadline, they’re not going to win 50+ games.
This team is at a 44-win pace right now. I would bet a lot of money they won’t win 53+ games with less than half of the season left.
Confidence on the Under: 10000/10
#12 – Phoenix Suns (Last Month: #10)
Preseason Over/Under: 53.5
Record: (27-25)
Net Rating: 1.6 (9th)
Everybody expected some regression from the Suns this season. Most teams who win as much as Phoenix (franchise record 64 wins in 2022) have some sort of regression the following year. And the Suns have hit that regression.
Devin Booker has missed extended time with a groin, and Chris Paul is a shell of his former self. Phoenix gutted through an uncomfortable month of January, a month they started with a 1-7. But, somehow, the Suns are above 0.500.
They’re not going to win 54 games, but they’ve managed to stay competitive. Mikal Bridges has been awesome, and if Booker returns, the Suns have a chance to avoid the play-in tournament. But 54 wins? The Suns would have to lose three more times for the rest of the season for that to happen. That’s a no from me.
Confidence on the Under: 10/10
#13 – Dallas Mavericks (Last Month: #11)
Preseason Over/Under: 48.5
Record: (27-25)
Net Rating: 0.2 (17th)
I don’t want to give this team any attention. We shouldn’t live in a world where Luka Doncic’s team is two games over 0.500 entering the home stretch of a season. Doncic has continued to be extraordinary, but the help around him remains subpar.
Dallas’ defense was terrible in January (27th in the NBA), and they’re clinging onto the sixth seed in the Western Conference. 49 wins should be a walk in the park for a team with one of the best offensive floor-raisers in the league.
Instead, Dallas is on pace to win just 43 games, the lowest mark of Doncic’s career since he was a rookie. Delete the franchise.
Confidence on the Under: GIVE LUKA HELP (7.5/10)
#14 – New York Knicks (Last Month: #15)
Preseason Over/Under: 39.5
Record: (27-25)
Net Rating: 1.5 (10th)
The New York Knicks have been up and down all season. They’ve had an eight-game winning streak followed by a five-game losing skid. I don’t know what to make of them. What I do know is that Randle and Brunson have been playing like All-Stars.
Quintin Grimes is a great two-way guard, and the Knicks will win 40+ games. They’re on pace to win 42.5 games. and I think they’ll hit that. Even without Mitchell Robinson down low, the Knicks are feisty and scrappy enough to remain competitive.
They have some decisions on what to do (or not do) at the deadline, but this team is definitely on the inside track to earning a playoff spot.
Confidence on the Over: 8/10
#15 – Golden State Warriors (Last Month: #17)
Preseason Over/Under: 52.5
Record: (26-24)
Net Rating: 0.0 (20th)
The Warriors have been too inconsistent to win 53 games. You keep waiting for them to rattle off eight straight wins and separate themselves from the pack, and they haven’t been able to do that. Even with a healthy Steph Curry, this team hasn’t looked right all season.
And, as I outlined last week, this team’s future is up in the air. If one more title was to come from this dynasty, it (most likely) won’t come from this team. Based on how uncharacteristically sloppy Steve Kerr’s guys have been, rattling off a 27-5 bender to end the season is impossible.
Confidence on the Under: 9.5/10
Tier 5: Play-In Tourney Hopefuls
#16 – Minnesota Timberwolves (Last Month: #20)
Preseason Over/Under: 48.5
Record: (27-26)
Net Rating: 0.3 (15th)
The Minnesota Timberwolves have somewhat recovered from their poor start. They still have a million questions about Rudy Gobert and this, that, and other, but Anthony Edwards has momentarily distracted us from all of that.
Edwards has been awesome this season, and he’s carried the load as Karl-Anthony Towns remains out with injury. Minnesota’s January was an outline of this team’s ceiling. A top-five defense with an average offense. Is that frustrating? Of course.
But, this is the ceiling that they gave themselves after the Rudy Gobert trade. Right now, the Timberwolves are happy to have their heads above water. 49 wins is an afterthought, however.
Confidence on the Under: 10/10
#17 – Utah Jazz (Last Month: #13)
Preseason Over/Under: 25.5
Record: (26-26)
Net Rating: 1.5 (11th)
If you bet the over on the Jazz this season, that money is already in your packet. Even though the Jazz have been mediocre since their hot start, that’s been enough. We all expected Danny Ainge to trade everybody and go after Victor Wembanyama.
Instead, he sat back and watched as Lauri Markkanen became Dirk 2.0. Utah could still trade some pieces at the deadline, but they’re content with what they’ve done this season. For a team that was supposed to be tanking, owning one of the top ten seeds in the West is impressive.
Confidence on the Over: Already hit it
#18 – OKC Thunder (Last Month: #25)
Preseason Over/Under: 23.5
Record: (24-26)
Net Rating: 0.9 (13th)
The OKC Thunder have been one of the NBA’s friskier teams this season. Their spaced-out offense and stout (but lucky) defense has made them a pest to play all season long. OKC is another team that has surpassed their over/under projection of 24 wins.
But the Thunder aren’t settling for that minor morale victory. Shai Gilgeous Alexander is an All-Star, and OKC isn’t going away anytime soon. They could be a team that makes a semi-competitive trade deadline move (Jakob Poeltl, anybody??).
This season has been a success by every measure for Sam Presti’s upstart bunch, but they’re not done yet. In their minds, they have a chance to topple the hierarchy of the Western Conference.
Confidence on the Over: Already hit it
#19 – Atlanta Hawks (Last Month: #16)
Preseason Over/Under: 46.5
Record: (25-26)
Net Rating: -0.8 (23rd)
With each passing Kevin Huerter made three, Atlanta writhes in pain. Even after trading a boatload of picks for Dejounte Murray, the Hawks remain mediocre. Trae Young still can’t shoot and is at odds with Atlanta’s nepotism-filled front office.
The Hawks are still the eighth seed in the East, but when your coach has thought about retiring midseason, a deep playoff run is not in your future. Atlanta is a mess, and their surprise Eastern Conference Finals run gets more distant by the day.
47 wins should be achievable for a team with this much talent, but the Hawks don’t have enough chemistry to turn their season around so drastically.
Confidence on the Under: 8/10
#20 – Indiana Pacers (Last Month: #19)
Preseason Over/Under: 24.5
Record: (24-28)
Net Rating: -2.2 (25th)
The Pacers are going to hit the over. But, with Tyrese Haliburton out, their chances at the play-in tournament have taken a huge hit. Indiana currently finds themselves in 10th place in the East. Haliburton, who should make the All-Star game, has missed the last ten games.
Indiana has gone 1-9 without him. So, when Haliburton is healthy, the Pacers are better than their record suggests. Locking up Myles Turner was a solid move, but these past couple of weeks have reinforced how important Hali is to this team.
But, when he comes back, the Pacers will continue to overachieve. The future is very bright for this team, and they’re going to hit the over. I’m willing to bet they’re going to win at least one more game this season.
Confidence on the Over: 11/10
Tier 6: No Half-Measures, Walter
#21 – LA Lakers (Last Month: #26)
Preseason Over/Under: 44.5
Record: (24-28)
Net Rating: -1.0 (24th)
In response to Lebron James being days away from passing Kareem’s once unbreakable scoring record, Rob Pelinka and company put their heads together and produced Rui Hachimura.
Yeah, this team is screwed.
Whether it be by the officials or by their incompetent front office, the Lakers are not being set up for success. They’re still the 13th seed in the Western Conference. So, Lebron can have his scoring record. It doesn’t look like the Lakers will make any other moves.
And they’re sure as hell not winning 45 games.
Confidence on the Under: 9.9/10
#22 – Portland Trail Blazers (Last Month: #14)
Preseason Over/Under: 39.5
Record: (24-26)
Net Rating: 0.3 (16th)
My Portland Trail Blazers have been excruciatingly frustrating this season. They have the innate ability to turn wins into losses. Turnovers, missed shots, and poor execution have led the Blazers to be under 0.500 after 50 games. Even during the easiest portion of their season, the Blazers are outside of the play-in picture.
Will the Blazers do anything at the deadline? How much money will they throw at Jerami Grant? They’ve already offered him a 4-year/$112 million dollar extension. This team is at a crossroads. Going all in with this roster would be suicide, and I’m hoping Joe Cronin knows that.
Even with all that, the Blazers are playing at a 39-win pace. Winning 40 games is doable. Is a goal of 40 wins pathetic? You bet your ass it is. But, every victory is a small one. So, I’ll take it.
Confidence on the Over: 7.5/10
#23 – Chicago Bulls (Last Month: #22)
Preseason Over/Under: 42.5
Record: (23-27)
Net Rating: -0.2 (22nd)
For a moment there, it looked like the Bulls would trade everybody and self-implode. Instead, it doesn’t look like they’re going to do that. Chicago would rather be stubborn than admit they’re wrong. It’s clear as day that this Bulls team is nowhere near competing.
Even after everything they’ve put into this roster, the Bulls are the 11th seed in the East. Talk about disappointing. Blowing things up is the logical decision, but I doubt this team will do anything close to that.
Winning 43 games would be a miracle for this sad, depressing team.
Confidence on the Under: 8/10
#24 – Toronto Raptors (Last Month: #21)
Preseason Over/Under: 46.5
Record: (23-29)
Net Rating: 0.5 (14th)
When they’re playing the Blazers, the Raptors look unbeatable. When they play everybody else, they look out of sorts. Despite having a roster worth the GDP of Greece, the Raptors haven’t been able to win. Now, their positive net rating indicates a team that’s better than 23-29. But, that’s not the point.
There are rumors of Nick Nurse’s future with the team not being so stable. OG Anunoby is set to miss the next four games with a “wrist” injury. That’s code for “we’re trying to trade this guy.” If the Raptors do decide to hit the red reset button, their phone lines will be very busy.
Everybody other than Barnes and Siakam will be considered available. For entertainment sakes, I need the Raptors to blow things up. This trade deadline has been boring. And, even if they don’t do that, this team ain’t winning 47 games.
Confidence on the Under: 10/10
#25 – Washington Wizards (Last Month: #24)
Preseason Over/Under: 35.5
Record: (24-26)
Net Rating: -0.1 (21st)
The Washington Wizards’ over/under perfectly describes their franchise. As much as it makes sense for this team to blow things up, they won’t do it. Instead, they’re going to extend Kuzma this offseason and then settle for 40 wins for the next three-ish years.
While I like Gafford and Avdija, this team has the wrong vision. Washington is the ninth seed in the East and will likely make the play-in tournament again. They may even have the honor of getting their shit kicked in by Boston, Philly, Brooklyn, or Milwaukee. Dealer’s choice!
But, hey! They’re going to hit the over! What am I talking about?????
Confidence on the Over: 7.5/10
Tier 7: Wembanyama Watch
#26 – Orlando Magic (Last Month: #23)
Preseason Over/Under: 26.5
Record: (20-31)
Net Rating: -3.1 (26th)
Despite not having many great shooters, Orlando’s forward combination of Wagner and Banchero has been their driving force this season. At times, the Magic have held their own against teams much better than them. Beating the Celtics three times in the same season is impressive.
Orlando is on pace to win 32 games, which would be a 10-win improvement from last season. Orlando’s rebuild is heading in the right direction. They’ve laid the groundwork for a promising team down the line.
Confidence in the Over: 8/10
#27 – San Antonio Spurs (Last Month: #27)
Preseason Over/Under: 22.5
Record: (14-37)
Net Rating: -9.7 (30th)
The San Antonio Spurs are not very good at basketball. Gregg Popovich tried to warn us before the season started. This season has been a developmental year. Guys like Jeremy Sochan have gotten lots of minutes and have looked promising — one-handed free throw form and all.
San Antonio is a team to watch at the deadline. They could trade some of their veterans and make this team (somehow) even worse. But, at their current pace, the Spurs are set to win 22.5 games.
So…you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Confidence in the Under: 7/10
#28 – Charlotte Hornets (Last Month: #28)
Preseason Over/Under: 36.5
Record: (15-37)
Net Rating: -6.5 (27th)
May Steve Clifford should have read the writing on the wall when Kenny Atkinson turned this team down. The Hornets have been bad all year, and they’re likely going to trade some pieces at the deadline. They’re on pace to win 24 games even if they don’t.
The only good thing about this team is Mason Plumlee’s left-handed jumpers.
Confidence on the Under: 10000000000000/10
#29 – Detroit Pistons (Last Month: #30)
Preseason Over/Under: 29.5
Record: (13-39)
Net Rating: -7.2 (28th)
Losing Cade Cunningham was an unfortunate blow for Detroit. But, Detroit’s two lottery picks — Ivey and Duren — have progressed nicely thus far. The Pistons still have a lot of work to do in their rebuild, and there is a way to kickstart it a little.
Bojan Bogdanovic did sign an extension in October, but he’s still one of the hottest trade targets as the February deadline approaches. The Pistons want an unprotected first-round pick for Bogdanovic. If their price is met, will they pull the trigger?
Oh, and the Pistons are not going to win 30 games this season. Just thought I’d mention that. The race for Wembanyama officially begins.
Confidence on the Under: 10/10
#30 – Houston Rockets (Last Month: #29)
Preseason Over/Under: 23.5
Record: (12-38)
Net Rating: -7.7 (29th)
It’s hard to be bad at rebuilding, but the Rockets are doing a fine job at that right now. Their team is a directionless abyss — devoid of any structure or fundamentals. The only positive thing this team has produced this season has been the emergence of Alperen Sengun.
Other than that, it’s been a lot of Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. isolations. If you thought 23.5 projected wins for this team was low, you’ll be shocked to hear they’re not even on pace to hit that mark. I don’t even think the Rockets are trying to be bad.
I think they don’t know what they’re doing.
Confidence on the Under: 8/10
What are your thoughts on these rankings? Leave a comment down below!
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