Malcolm Brogdon May Just Complete The Celtics

The Boston Celtics weren’t good enough to win it all last season. It’s as simple as that. Their inability to score in the halfcourt was their main pitfall, among other things. So, new team president Brad Stevens wasted no time. Trading for Malcolm Brogdon may have just been their missing component.

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Hoosiers

After acquiring Tyrese Haliburton at the deadline last year, Brogdon was no longer needed. Other than Myles Turner, he was the last member of that underachieving Pacers core. To Indiana, he was a surplus. A pariah. Trading him was a no-brainer.

Now, I saw some people suggesting that Indiana didn’t get the best return for Brogdon, which isn’t necessarily true. That 2023 first-round pick may be in the late twenties, but it’s still a first-round pick. I don’t think a rebuilding team like Indiana is scoffing at being offered that.

The real prize of their return package from Boston was Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith got the short end of the stick with the Celtics. Sure, he was young and underdeveloped. His playing time was incredibly sporadic, and it was hard for a catch-and-shoot specialist like himself to leave a mark.

However, I believe Nesmith could turn into a 3&D wing for Indiana. He plays his tail off defensively, fights on every possession, and is still an above average shooter. I don’t think Aaron Nesmith is bad any more than I think Stephen A. Smith is intelligent.

This move also clears up a ton of cap space for Indiana. Now, the Pacers have about $26.4 million dollars to spend. I don’t know if that’s enough for Deandre Ayton, but it’s enough for something. Even if they don’t spend the money this year, it’s flexibility for their future contract extensions.

There’s a lot to like about this move if you’re Indiana. You’re getting younger, cheaper, and now you can let your young guys flourish. This is just what a growing rebuild needs, and they got it.

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A Steady Hand

Now, what does Malcolm Brogdon bring to the Celtics? At its core, this move gives Boston a metronome-steady ball-handler who can shoot, defend, and close out games. In other words, everything they’ve been looking for. 

Over his last four seasons as a starter, Brogdon has averaged just under 18 points on 46/37/88 splits, 5.5 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game. Derrick White was a band-aid. Brogdon is Boston’s chance at surgery.

During his three seasons as a Pacer, the only players to post as high a usage rate, as high an assist rate, and as low a turnover percentage as Brogdon were Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, and Kyrie Irving. In other words, Brogdon is über-efficient with the ball in his hands. At times with the Pacers, it felt like they were asking him to do too much. That won’t be the case in Boston.

Ime Udoka also wanted his Celtics to attack the rim more. Instead of going east-west with their drives, go north-south. His words of wisdom didn’t help much, as Boston was middle of the pack when it came to attacking the rim.

But, on his own, Brogdon was one of the best drivers in the NBA last season. He ranked fourth in drives per game, ninth in points per game, and third in assists. Rim pressure is one of Brogdon’s specialties. He’ll put more pressure on opposing defenses, which should open things up for the Celtics’ offense.

The best part? Brogdon doesn’t need the ball to be effective. Brogdon started his career off the ball. For his career, Brogdon has shot about 42% on catch-and-shoot triples. So, playing off the ball won’t be a problem.

While Brogdon is somewhat overrated defensively, his 6-5 frame makes him the perfect fit for Boston’s defense. It’s hard for me to imagine he single-handily tanks this defense. On paper, Malcolm Brogdon is everything the Celtics were missing last season. In theory, it’s a match made in heaven.

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Lineups

Here were Boston’s three most effective postseason lineups last season;

1. Smart – Brown – Tatum – Horford – Williams: 3.5 net rating ~ +12 plus/minus (138 minutes)
   
2. White – Brown – Tatum – Williams – Horford: 26.6 net rating ~ +17 plus/minus (38 minutes)
   
3. Pritchard – Smart – White – Tatum – Horford: 34.9 net rating ~ +8 plus/minus (14 minutes)

I think that Brogdon fits in with all of these lineups in some way. Let’s start from the top. If you replace Brogdon with Smart, you’re sacrificing defense for offense. But, the three-headed trio of Smart, Tatum, and Brogdon is pretty deadly.

That second lineup is a little smaller, but again, replacing White with Brogdon gives the Celtics more options. And finally, that third lineup is the most intuiting to me. It’s hard for a team as big as the Celtics to go small. But, that’s how it would look.

Now, imagine if they could throw Brogdon into the mix? He’s bigger, and would be a mismatch creator against smaller lineups. I think that’s where he gives Ime Udoka the most versatility. When Boston goes small, they have a new go-to option.

It’ll also be interesting to see how much Brogdon plays with Tatum & Brown. I don’t know if he’ll settle for a “super sixth man role,” but he may have to. For Brogdon to start, Al Horford would likely have to get relegated to the bench.

It’s possible, but I wonder how much we’ll see Brogdon play with the starters.

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Pitfalls

Now, not every move is perfect. I’m assuming something about this deal will go wrong. And I’m not talking about Brogdon’s hefty price tag. Here are some things that could get in the way of this newfound partnership;

• Injuries: Brogdon hasn’t played more than 56 games in a season since 2019. He’s entering his age-30 seasons. Nothing is guaranteed
  
• Minutes/Role: I don’t expect drama from a player nicknamed “the president.” But, I wonder where the Celtics will plug Brogdon into their rotation. Could that ruffle some feathers? Maybe.

Again, this move will not be as perfect as I’ve laid out it can be. Things are bound to go wrong. That’s how the NBA works. While there are miniscule issues in this move, they can’t be ignored. Come back to this if things are going horribly wrong and see if I was right.

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The Question

Whenever a contending team adds a piece, I think it’s important to ask this question;

Would this player have turned the tide in the Conference Finals/Finals?

I think the answer is obvious in this scenario. With Brogdon in the picture, Boston could have very well won it all last season. His skillset is exactly what they were missing last postseason. No matter where he fits in the rotation or his somewhat scarce defensive abilities, Malcolm Brogdon is just what the Celtics needed.

Now, let’s see if he can push them over the top in 2023.

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