My Official NBA Finals Prediction
And just like that, we’re at the end of the NBA season. The Celtics and Warriors are the last two standing. Here’s my finals prediction!
And then there were two. We’ve waited 225 days for this moment. Now, the wait is finally over. The two best teams in the NBA, the Warriors, and Celtics, are the last two teams standing. You know what’s next. Here is my official prediction for the NBA Finals!
(Note: I am 13-1 in my series predictions so far. Let’s make that 14-1)
Golden State Warriors
Pulverized Denver (4-1) in First Round
Bested Memphis (4-2) in Second Round
Defeated Dallas (4-1) in Conference Finals
Rapid Facts
- Golden State is in the finals for their sixth time over the last eight seasons. Only 3 other teams in NBA history have accomplished that feat.
- The Warriors are 9-0 at home this postseason
- Golden State has scored 7.0 more points per 100 possessions than its opponents allowed in the regular season
You know them by now. Golden State and excellence have gone hand-in-hand over the past decade. It’s just what they do. After waiting 941 days for the return of Klay Thompson, the Warriors were whole again. They’re just starting to play to their potential, which is a scary thought for Boston.
If Gary Payton II, Andre Iguodala, and Otto Porter Jr. can return healthy for this series, it gives the Warriors yet another advantage in this series. As if they needed any more. Let’s talk about the seasoned vets.
X-Factor: Steph Curry?
Steph Curry’s 2022 postseason hasn’t been bad by any means. But it certainly hasn’t been as dynamic. Curry hasn’t made more than six 3-pointers in a game. Since 2013-14, he’d had a playoff game with at least seven makes from outside.
Curry also hasn’t scored 34+ points this postseason. Before this season, under Steve Kerr, he’d had a 37-point performance in every postseason. The Magic Johnson trophy is nice, but Curry hasn’t been at his best postseason.
Similar to his regular season, he’s been inconsistent. In a series where he’s the best player, the Warriors need Curry to be just that. The best. They need MVP Steph Curry to show, not the one we’ve seen throughout this series. I think that Curry’s breakout is waiting to happen.
Sure, the Celtics are a great defensive team, and I’m sure they’ll make Steph’s life hell. But, I also understand the importance of experience. Curry has played in 28 games in the finals. The entire Celtics roster has played in 0. Experience matters, and it may be just the thing to unleash the baby-faced assassin.
(And Marcus Smart injured his foot the last time these two teams played. Just some extra juice for Curry).
Key To The Series: Turnover Margins
Turnovers are a byproduct of the style that the Warriors play. The combination of their pace and passing breeds sloppiness. But it’s no secret that turnovers will dictate this series. That has been the case all postseason for Golden State, but it’s especially true in this series.
In wins this postseason, the Warriors have averaged 14.3 turnovers and allowed 14.3 points off turnovers. Those numbers aren’t great, but they’re passable. The same can’t be said in this losses. This postseason, in losses, Golden State is averaging 16.3 turnovers and allowing 20.8 points off turnovers.
The turnovers the Warriors want to commit less are live-ball turnovers. Forcing the ball where it can’t go will give Boston opportunities to score in transition. If the Warriors limit their brain-dead mistakes, they’re tough to stop.
On the flip side, forcing turnovers is another key to this series. Against the Heat, when the Celtics turned the ball over, their elite half-court defense didn’t mean as much. Boston turned the ball over 18.7 times in losses and just 11.5 times in wins.
So, if the Warriors could not only avoid giving Boston easy looks but also get themselves some easy looks? That would be twisting the knife in the most painful way for Boston, and it may just be the difference in this series.
Boston Celtics
Vanquished Brooklyn (4-0) in the First Round
Survived Milwaukee (4-3) in the Second Round
Survived (again) Miami (4-3) in the Conference Finals
Rapid Facts
- Allowing just 87.5 points per 100 half-court plays this postseason
- The Celtics are 7-2 on the road this postseason. They’re also 6-0 after a loss this postseason.
- Tatum and Brown are the 3rd pair of teammates 25 years of younger to reach the NBA Finals averaging 20 ppg each.
If the Warriors are the elder statesmen, the Celtics are the new kids on the block. After years of coming up short, they finally broke through in the East. It took a miraculous in-season turnaround, but here they are.
Fueled by a historically good defense, first-year head coach Ime Udoka has pushed the right buttons all postseason. But, can he do it four more times. Let’s see how Boston can win this series.
X-Factor: Jayson Tatum (and Rest)
Rest has been hard to come by for the Boston Celtics. The Celtics have played every other day since game two against the Bucks. A couple extra days off were desperately needed, and they got it. Ok, now onto my real x-factor.
Like Steph Curry, Jayson Tatum’s postseason has been inconsistent. We’ve seen Tatum have out-of-this-world performances, like his 46-point special in game six on the road against the Bucks. We’ve also seen Tatum shut down at times. In Game 3 against the Bucks and Game 3 against the Heat, he scored 20 combined points on 7-for-33 shooting.
That can’t happen if the Celtics want to win this series. Tatum has gone against Giannis, Durant, Adebayo, and Butler this postseason. Relatively speaking, Golden State’s wings are the worst he’ll have played all postseason.
The Celtics need Jayson Tatum to play smart and aggressive. This is his biggest test to date, and if he’s not careful, it could be his biggest failure, too. For the Celtics to win this series, Jayson Tatum has to be the best player on the floor.
Key To The Series: Switching
Boston’s switching defense works. But they’ve never faced an offense like Golden State’s. To be fair, no one has. So, can Boston’s massive lineups keep up with the speedy Warriors? I’m on the fence with that one.
While Grant Williams and Robert Williams move well in space, can an aging Al Horford do the same? We may see a lot more Grant Williams at center – a similar tactic to the Warriors going to Draymond at center to try and counteract this size difference.
How will the Celtics play those dangerous Steph Curry give-and-go’s? Marcus Smart may be the Defensive Player of the Year, but it’s hard to guard that action. The Mavericks went all out on Curry, sending the big up on that screen. That left them exposed to a scrambling defense, which is never a good idea against Golden State.
It’s hard to say how the Celtics will defend the Warriors. Boston is a team that isn’t afraid to make changes. After game one, they could roll out a completely new game plan for Curry’s screens. Interesting to see that chess match between Udoka and Kerr.
Another thing to watch for is the Celtics’ pick-and-roll defense. Will they step up to stop guys like Curry and Poole from getting looks, or will they play back and rely on their elite frontcourt to bail them out? Again, that’s a strategy susceptible to change in this series.
On the flip side, how can the Celtics take advantage of the smaller Poole and Curry? The pick-and-roll combo of Smart & Tatum will put a lot of pressure on the Warriors’ defense. If Golden State decides to show a lot on screens involving Curry and Poole, how can the Celtics exploit that?
I’m sorry if I’m not giving definitive answers here, but there are so many aspects of switching Boston has to manage. And, as previously mentioned, expect a lot of changes throughout this series. In short, expect the unexpected when it comes to switches.
What To Expect From This Series
This was the best series we could have gotten from the four conference finalists. So, in the entertainment department, our needs are filled. There are also storylines galore in this series. Can the Warriors get back on top? Will Jayson Tatum officially become a super-duper star?
On top of that, for the first time since 1996, we’re seeing the top two regular-season defenses go at it. That doesn’t mean we’re not to see a lot of scoring, but we have the potential to see more low-scoring, grind-it-out types of games. I’m all for that unless the officials step in and ruin things.
If there’s a close game, count on the Celtics to lose it. If there’s a lot of foul trouble, the Celtics are also at a disadvantage. Sorry Boston, the Warriors are just really good at this whole basketball thing. Nothing I can do about that. Still, this series should be one of the more fun ones we’ve had all postseason.
Consider this my series wish list;
- Draymond Green & Marcus Smart getting into it
- Al Horford showing any emotion
- Another Wiggins posterizing dunk
If only the two fanbases pitted against each other weren’t so insufferable. Ugh.
My Final Prediction
With all that being said, it’s time for my prediction. I have thought long and hard about this, but I’m going with my gut;
Warriors in Six
After years of despising the Warriors because they were too good, I’ve come around on them. It’s hard not to appreciate the clinic they put on night after night. Given their major edge in experience and depth, I think the young Celtics will be overmatched.
This will still be a dogfight series, but the Warriors should be getting their fourth title when it’s all said and done. That doesn’t mean I won’t be rooting for an upset, though.
What Are Your Thoughts On The NBA Finals? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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