Grading Every Teams Start: New Year Power Rankings
Since we’re almost at the halfway point of this season, I would I would ring in the new year and grade every team’s start.
Happy New Year’s, everybody! We’ve already finished two and a half months of the NBA season. Teams are approaching the halfway point of their seasons. With that in mind, I thought it would be a great time to reintroduce my infallible power rankings. To ring in the New Year, I’m going to grade every team’s start to the season.
Warning!
These power rankings are incredibly subjective. I may value certain aspects of teams more than you do. This is a great time to remind you that the power rankings are never wrong. I stand by every assessment I make until I can either scream vindication at something being correct or wiggle my way out of something being wrong. You have been warned.
And this year, in addition to ranking every team, every team will be in tiers. Here are my categories for this season, from lowest to highest;
- Wembanyama Watch: They’re rebuilding and all they care about are some ping-pong balls in May.
- Stuck Between Tanking and Play-In: Not bad enough to tank, not good enough to be competitive
- Play-In Hopefuls: Mediocre teams/rebuilding teams that are just starting to get competitive. Being a top ten seed in their respective conference is a good thing.
- Play-In or Better: They’re going to be in the mix all year long, but don’t be surprised to see them in the Play-In Tournament.
- Playoff Locks: If they were in the play-in tournament, we would all be surprised
- Fringe Contenders: A piece away from being title contenders
- Contenders: The only thing that can stop them is injuries. Or drama. One or the other.
Without further ado, let’s rank some teams.
Tier 1: Contenders
#1 – Boston Celtics: A
Record: (26-10)
Offensive Rating: 117.3 (1st)
Defensive Rating: 110.4 (7th)
Net Rating: 7.0 (1st)
The defending Eastern Conference champs have picked up right where they left off. Even with a new head coach and no Robert Williams until the last couple of weeks, the Celtics have looked like the best team in the league by a mile. This season, it’s been their offense that has carried the load. Jayson Tatum, a frontrunner for the MVP award, has averaged 31.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists this season.
Even as their 3-PT shooting has cooled, Boston’s defense has been rounding into form. The most impressive part about Boston’s season has been their performance against good teams. They’re 17-4 against teams above 0.500, which is utterly absurd. The Celtics are also 4-1 on the road this season against top ten teams. The C’s have a 107.1 defensive rating in these games, which is the best in the league, according to cleaning the glass.
Guys like Brogdon, Horford, and Derrick White have all been steady all year. Jaylen Brown, rather quietly, is having the best season of his career.
Injuries are the only thing that can stop this team. That or Joe Mazzulla giving up Boston’s scouting report on Quizlet. Their schedule isn’t difficult the rest of the way, although they have ten road games in January, including bouts against Denver and Dallas. But the Celtics are the best team in the league, and it’s not particularly close.
#2 – Brooklyn Nets: F (Nash) / A+ (Vaughn)
Record: (24-12)
Offensive Rating: 115.7 (5th)
Defensive Rating: 112.1 (10th)
Net Rating: 3.6 (6th)
It’s been a tale of two coaches for the Nets. After a 2-5 start under Steve Nash, Brooklyn has completely turned things around under new head coach Jacque Vaughn. It seemed impossible that this reality TV show could ever focus on basketball. But, amid an 11-game win streak, Brooklyn is the hottest team in the league.
Kevin Durant is having one of the most efficient mid-range seasons in league history. Kyrie Irving is back to making defenses looking foolish. Brooklyn had the best offense in the league during December. And, under Vaughn, they’ve had a top-ten defense (110.3 defensive rating).
Focusing on basketball has been what Vaughn has been preaching since day one. And everyone’s bought into that message. If you look at Brooklyn’s roster, it’s diverse and versatile. They have a lot of length and shooting. It also helps to have two of the best one-on-one scorers in the NBA.
To me, the key will be Ben Simmons. Simmons has looked better in recent weeks, especially defensively. But can they rely on him a little more offensively than just 8.1 points per game? If Simmons can get closer to what he was in Philly, the Nets will take another step forward.
But, what Brooklyn has done to turn their season around seemed impossible in early November. They were on the precipice of a collapse. Instead, entering January, they’re the second seed in the East. Quite the turnaround.
#3 – Cleveland Cavaliers: A-
Record: (23-14)
Offensive Rating: 113.6 (11th)
Defensive Rating: 108.4 (1st)
Net Rating: 5.2 (2nd)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have had an interesting season. While they’re 9 games over 0.500, I feel like they could be doing better. They had a five-game skid in mid-November, but it’s more than that. Something seems off with this team, and I can’t put my finger on it.
If you remember, this time last year, a much less talented Cavs team was 20-16. This year’s Cavs team, with Donovan Mitchell on board, is just 2.5 games better than that. Cleveland has the best defense in the league and one of the brightest futures in the NBA. And yet, even with all that talent, they haven’t been that much better than they were last year.
I would be lying if I said this season has been a failure. Cleveland has looked dominant at times, and they’re going to make noise in the playoffs. But I am a little concerned about a few things. For one, Cleveland is just 7-10 on the road.
They’re 2-5 against middle ten teams on the road. Middle ten means teams ranking 11th-20th in net rating this season. Cleveland’s defense plummets in these games, allowing 114.2 points per 100 possessions (13th in the NBA).
While the Cavs are 13-8 against teams above 0.500, they’re just 10-6 against teams below that mark. That’s what seems off. Cleveland has to do a better job taking care of business against bad teams.
#4 – Denver Nuggets: A+
Record: (23-12)
Offensive Rating: 116.6 (2nd)
Defensive Rating: 114.2 (24th)
Net Rating: 2.3 (9th)
Coming into the season, if you had told me that the Nuggets would have sole possession of the #1 seed on January 1st, I would have called this season a success. And that’s what the Nuggets have done. The Nuggets, healthy for the first time since the Bubble, have been running through the league.
Nikola Jokic continues to be one of the best offensive weapons in NBA history. I talked about just how ridiculous he was a couple days ago, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg for Denver. Aaron Gordon is having the best year of his career. Murray and Porter are perfect complementary options. Denver’s bench is as deep as ever.
This is the first time we’ve seen MVP Nikola Jokic with real help around him. While their defense needs a lot of work, the Nuggets look like contenders. The lineup of Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, and Jokic has a +14.7 net rating with a 119.2 offensive rating. That +14.7 net rating ranks in the 98th percentile of qualified lineups this season.
It doesn’t feel like Nikola Jokic has to drag this team around anymore. While he’s still the most valuable player in the league, Denver has numerous weapons to pick teams apart. With the West looking more wide open than the great plains, this could be Denver’s year to make their first-ever finals appearance.
Tier 2: Fringe Contenders
#5 – Memphis Grizzlies: A
Record: (22-13)
Offensive Rating: 113.3 (12th)
Defensive Rating: 109.2 (4th)
Net Rating: 4.1 (4th)
It’s been business as usual for the Grizzlies. Memphis has one of the deepest rosters in the NBA. Despite injuries to Jaren Jackson Jr and Desmond Bane, the Grizzlies remain near the top of the Western Conference. Led by Ja Morant, the most electrifying player in the league, Memphis is very well-rounded.
So, why aren’t they in the contender tier?
Well, for one, their two best defenders can’t stay on the floor. Even though Jaren Jackson Jr is having a historically good defensive season, foul trouble continues to plague him. It’s the same thing with Dillon Brooks. Memphis needs those two guys on the floor to slow teams down. This season, when Brooks and JJJ aren’t on the floor, Memphis has a 115.5 defensive rating.
Memphis has a losing record on the road, and they’re 9-8 against opponents over 0.500. Those are both regressions from last season. However, there is one major caveat to everything I’ve just said. It comes in the form of Memphis’ big three.
As I said earlier, injuries to Jackson and Bane have left Memphis somewhat shorthanded. With those two on the floor with Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are unstoppable. They have a +25.5 net rating while ranking in the 100th percentile defensive rating. Memphis has been unstoppable when their three best guys are on the floor.
But, this trio has only played 153 possessions together this season. For Memphis to fulfill their potential, these three guys have to stay healthy.
#6 – Philadelphia 76ers: B+
Record: (21-14)
Offensive Rating: 113.1 (14th)
Defensive Rating: 109.1 (2nd)
Net Rating: 4.0 (5th)
Injuries have been a thorn in Philly’s side all season long. James Harden has missed 14 games. Embiid has missed eight games, too. Tyrese Maxey just returned from a fracture in his left foot. But, even with all those injuries, the 76ers have rounded to form in December.
Thanks to lots of home games and easy opponents, Philly reeled off 8 straight wins at one point and finished December with a 9-4 record. James Harden has looked spry, and Joel Embiid remains a nightmare matchup for anybody.
Philly is anchored by their stout defense, but I don’t think they’re in the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. They aren’t as deep as Boston or Milwaukee. And, the threat of an Embiid injury derailing their season like it did last year is always scary.
Don’t get me wrong, the 76ers are good. They’ve shown that they deserve this #6 spot over the past couple of weeks. But this feels like a team that needs a lot to go right to get to the Finals. Offensively, I feel like the 76ers could be so much better.
Despite having four All-Star caliber players, the 76ers are 14th in offensive rating. Philly plays at one of the slowest paces in the league. 82.4% of their plays come in the halfcourt against a set defense. They don’t get a lot of opportunities in transition, despite transition offense exploding league-wide thanks to the implementation of the take foul.
Philadelphia also doesn’t shoot enough threes. They’re 18th in attempts but 5th percentage. The 76ers have to play faster and shoot more threes to improve their offense. And stay healthy. But not in that order.
#7 – New Orleans Pelicans: A+
Record: (23-13)
Offensive Rating: 114.8 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 110.0 (5th)
Net Rating: 4.8 (3rd)
Everything has come together perfectly for the New Orleans Pelicans. David Griffin’s funky mix of young and old has led New Orleans to be atop the Western Conference. The memories of Zion Williamson missing all of last season with injury and him potentially wanting out have become distant. Right now, the Pelicans are on the rise.
New Orleans is a top-eight offense and defense. They house the third-best net rating in the NBA (4.8). Even though Brandon Ingram has missed extensive time due to injury, this team hasn’t missed a beat. Despite relying on many young and inexperienced players, New Orleans has been a well-oiled machine this season.
Watching Zion Williamson bully teams is so therapeutic. New Orleans has been giving him more opportunities at point guard, and it’s been working, especially in the clutch. The Pelicans, like the Cavaliers, are a team that will be in the mix for years to come. This season has been a rousing success, but it’s a preamble to what we’ll see for years to come.
But I can assure you that the Pelicans aren’t thinking that far into the future. Here’s a stat for you. When the trio of Williamson, McCollum, and Ingram are on the floor, New Orleans has a +19.5 net rating with a 98th percentile offense and defense in that span. They’re not just great, they’re dominant.
I don’t think the Pelicans think of themselves as a team of the future. They’re thinking short-term. The West is open, and this young, upstart team has its eyes on the prize. It doesn’t matter who’s in their way, although I don’t think they would be mad if the Suns were.
#8 – Milwaukee Bucks: B
Record: (23-12)
Offensive Rating: 111.5 (22nd)
Defensive Rating: 109.1 (3rd)
Net Rating: 2.3 (9th)
After a hot start, December wasn’t very kind to Milwaukee. Despite Giannis Antetokounmpo dominating every night, the Bucks went just 8-7 in December with a bottom-ten offense. Not having Khris Middleton, who went down with another injury, was a big reason for this.
Middleton’s unavailability in the last couple of seasons raises some flags with Milwaukee. As we saw last postseason, this team isn’t the same when he’s not healthy. They don’t have enough options that can create for themselves consistently. I argued on Christmas that Middleton, not Antetokounmpo, was more valuable to this team. And I stand by that.
Even though the Bucks have the league’s third-best defense on the season, their offense struggles to score. The Bucks are one of the league’s worst shooting teams, ranking 20th in TS% this season. That’s a far cry from last season, when they ranked 7th.
When healthy, this team is right up there with Boston in the Eastern Conference’s elite. They’re that good. But all of their role players are being stretched too thin right now. If they continue down this path, holding a top seed in the East doesn’t seem all that realistic.
While Giannis’ force will always give the Bucks a fighting chance, they need a lot more right now to return to where they were in 2021.
Tier 3: Playoff Locks
#9 – Los Angeles Clippers: B
Record: (21-17)
Offensive Rating: 110.2 (28th)
Defensive Rating: 110.0 (6th)
Net Rating: 0.2 (14th)
Remember when Kawhi Leonard looked like a 48-year-old man trying to play basketball and the world was ending? Yeah, me neither. The Clippers, perhaps the deepest and most experienced team in the league, have slowly worked their way into the swing of things.
The Clippers have one of the best defenses in the league. But their offense is on par team with teams tanking for Wembanyama. Despite having a lot of talent, LA’s offense is plagued by turnovers and a lack of movement. LA turns the ball over 15.6 times per game, leading to 19.0 points for their opponents. Ranking 24th in passes made per game doesn’t help, either.
Another thing you have to wonder about this team is continuity. Leonard and George have only played 335 minutes this season. And, with that much depth, some guys will not be playing as much as they feel they should. A similar dilemma happened with the early 2000s Blazers. There is such a thing as too much talent.
With this defense, the Clippers can hold their own against anyone. But they’ve struggled against above 0.500 teams (6-11) for a reason. They just can’t score. There is one solution to this problem. And it involves a little something called health.
Remember those 335 Leonard/George minutes that the Clippers have enjoyed this season? Think of those as 678 possessions. In these 678 possessions, the Clippers have a 116.8 offensive rating. So, how can the Clippers fix their offense? Keep Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the floor. Easier said than done, but my point remains.
#10 – Phoenix Suns: B-
Record: (20-17)
Offensive Rating: 116.0 (3rd)
Defensive Rating: 112.7 (12th)
Net Rating: 3.3 (7th)
Despite having good numbers, things have been very tumultuous in the desert. Devin Booker is set to miss extended time with his groin injury. Phoenix went 5-11 in December with the fourth worst defense in the league. It wasn’t a pretty month.
Chris Paul looks like a shell of his former self. And, without Booker, this Suns team will likely continue to struggle. Phoenix has a four-game road trip in January with games against Memphis, Golden State, and Denver. That sounds like fun!
But, there is one good reason that the Suns are #10 on this list instead of much lower. While they aren’t contenders, when healthy, they are dangerous. Their starting lineup of Paul, Booker, Cam Johnson, Bridges, and Ayton has a whopping +29.5 net rating when they share the floor together.
You may not like the Suns (I certainly don’t), but when healthy, they still have some gas left in the tank. I don’t view them as contenders. They’re holding on for dear life as the 7th seed in a crowded Western Conference. But if they can survive until Booker and Johnson return, they will have one of the best starting lineups in the league back on the floor again.
Until then, survival will be key for Phoenix. The question is – can they survive long enough to get back to full strength?
Tier 4: Play-In or Better
#11 – Dallas Mavericks: C+
Record: (21-16)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 113.2 (18th)
Net Rating: 2.1 (11th)
It’s a shame that the Mavericks have no idea what they’re doing. Building around Luka Doncic isn’t that hard, you know? I mean, the guy had the fifth best regular season game is history earlier this week. It’s not rocket science.
Dallas let Doncic’s best teammate, Jalen Brunson, walk in free agency. That’s why Doncic is posting a usage rate above 40% this season. Dallas’ roster is filled with streaky shooters and players who have to be spoon-fed everything. It’s eerily similar to Lebron’s first stint in Cleveland. Without Doncic, the Mavericks would easily be the worst team in the league.
It’s such a waste of a generational superstar. The Porzingis trade handicapped Dallas’ future draft capital, and they don’t have any enticing assets to improve. They’re essentially treading water, which isn’t what you want to be doing with one of the five best players in the world.
When Dallas makes their 3-pointers, they win. And when they don’t, they lose. Their offense is so predictable and one-sided that it’s painful to watch. Every single game is a numbers game. ‘How many minutes can we give Luka to sit on the bench and rest?’ That’s the internal calculus Jason Kidd has to make every night. Come playoff time, Doncic will be exhausted, and Dallas will undoubtedly falter. It’s a recipe for disaster.
Relying on Reggie Bullock and Tim Hardaway Jr is never a good idea. One can only hope that Dallas figures things out and gets Luka some help. Until then, we will sit and watch his brilliance.
#12 – Sacramento Kings: A+
Record: (19-15)
Offensive Rating: 115.2 (7th)
Defensive Rating: 113.9 (22nd)
Net Rating: 1.3 (12th)
If that doesn’t tell you that basketball is alive and well in Sacramento, I don’t know what will. For the first time in years, the Kings have a competent basketball team. Sure, I predicted their downfall more than a month ago. And yes, I don’t know how a team with the 21st-ranked defense in the league is still succeeding.
Nevertheless, the Kings are playing well through December. Domantas Sabonis, broken thumb and all, is playing like a man possessed in the post. Sabonis is having the best season of his career and is playing so well that some Kings think the Tyrese Haliburton trade was worth it. They are, of course, wrong.
In any sense, Sacramento’s offense continues to be their driving force. Mike Brown, try as he may, can only muster a middling defense from this team. That’s why I was skeptical of the Kings earlier in the year, but to their credit, they’ve continued to win games.
Kevin Huerter can’t seem to miss from 3-PT range and De’Aaron Fox has been a steady scoring presence in the backcourt.
Sacramento has the 27th* easiest schedule the rest of the way. If they can improve their defense (it was 14th in December!), they can make some real noise in the West. With their “light the beam” moniker, anything is possible.
#13 – Utah Jazz: A++++++++++++
Record: (19-20)
Offensive Rating: 115.9 (4th)
Defensive Rating: 114.9 (27th)
Net Rating: 1.0 (13th)
Even though the Jazz have faltered as of late, they deserve this spot. Their five-out offense has an endless amount of options that remain deadly. The only problem is that they can’t play defense. They’re an even more extreme version of the Kings team right above them.
Still, this season has been a success for Utah. They were expected to be in the running for Victor Wembanyama. Instead, these next few years will be nothing more than a retool. They have so many assets after dealing away Mitchell and Gobert that they don’t need to tank.
With one of the best atmospheres in the entire sport behind them, Utah’s holistic approach has worked wonders. Danny Ainge can’t be complaining right now. Lauri Markkanen averaging 23.8 points and 8.5 rebounds on 67% TS, was not on my 2023 season bingo card.
It is worth noting that the Jazz have the 26th* easiest schedule remaining. The playoffs are far from a long shot for this team. If they can recover from this recent stumble, they can continue to be one of the best stories of this season.
#14 – Portland Trail Blazers: B
Record: (18-17)
Offensive Rating: 114.1 (9th)
Defensive Rating: 114.0 (23rd)
Net Rating: 0.1 (16th)
Oh, where do I begin with my Blazers? After a 10-4 start that sparked incredible amounts of false hope, Portland has been closer to average since then. The defense plays hard for a few possessions a night. Injuries have left a already thin roster looking like Adrien Brody in The Pianist.
Gary Payton II has yet to play this season due to injury. Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons are too inconsistent. While Damian Lillard became the greatest Blazer in history after passing Clyde Drexler to become the franchise’s all-time leading scorer, he has looked slow at times.
Portland has struggled against better defenses this season, and they’ve missed opportunities. Losing back-to-back games against the Thunder on the road by a combined five points stings. This season doesn’t feel that different from previous seasons under he who shall not be named.
It feels like this team has already hit their ceiling. I don’t think getting healthy will help things that much. The good news for Portland is that they have an easy schedule the rest of the way with a lot of home games in January. They have to take advantage to stand out in a jam packed Western Conference.
In the meantime, I will continue to evaluate my life choices. And debate whether or not drafting Shaedon Sharpe was a mistake.
#15 – New York Knicks: A-
Record: (19-18)
Offensive Rating: 114.0 (10th)
Defensive Rating: 111.8 (9th)
Net Rating: 2.2 (10th)
The New York Knicks turned their season around in December. After a predictably poor start, New York’s offense came alive. Jalen Brunson’s steady hand in the backcourt proved that his newly inked contract in the offseason was far from an overpay. I can’t say the same about RJ Barrett, however.
Tim Thibodeau took D-Rose, Reddish, and Fournier out of the rotation. Julius Randle has returned to something resembling his 2021 All-NBA campaign. And, just like that, the Knicks are an above 0.500 team. Now, can they sustain what they did last month? Probably not.
But it was encouraging to see them have a top-three defensive unit in December (108.2 defensive rating). Mitchell Robinson has flashed his two-way dominance. New York’s defense falls by about 2.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s not on the floor.
I don’t think the Knicks are turning the corner by any means. This roster is still a lumpy, misshapen piece of pottery. They have a lot of questions regarding the futures of guys like Obi Toppin (who may be traded soon) and Immanuel Quickley (who may also be dealt). What about Evan Fournier’s massive contract?
Heck, guys like RJ Barrett and Julius Randle may not be viewed as long-term options anymore. New York’s future is far from clear. But, for the moment, they’re back to playing tough, gritty defense. And, thanks to a weak Eastern Conference, a play-in tournament spot is certainly not out of question.
#16 – Atlanta Hawks: C-
Record: (17-19)
Offensive Rating: 111.6 (21st)
Defensive Rating: 112.9 (15th)
Net Rating: -1.2 (23rd)
The Atlanta Hawks had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad month of December, both on and off the court. Reports of a tumultuous locker room and a team who’s at odds with their star player doesn’t sound like a fun place to be.
It started when Travis Schlenk stepped down from his post as president of basketball operations to an advisory role. Knick legend Landry Fields took over basketball operations in his place. And then, we heard reports of Trae Young potentially wanting out. He was at odds with Nate McMillan, who Shams has recently said thought about resigning.
John Collins continues to hear his name in trade discussions and is posting the lowest offensive outputs of his career. After a 7-3 start, the Hawks have been 10-16 the rest of the way. The newly added Dejounte Murray has hardly fixed things.
After their surprise Eastern Conference run in 2021, nothing has gone to plan for Atlanta. Their superstar is moody and is having a down year offensively. Nothing is working on either side of the ball. Trading away Kevin Huerter seems stupid in hindsight.
As shocking as it is to say, this team may be close to blowing things up soon. Teams could come calling at the deadline, and I doubt the Hawks wouldn’t at least listen to their calls. And if Trae Young demands a trade? Then Atlanta will really be staring down the barrel of another rebuilding project.
Maybe it’s now worth mentioning that the Hawks had their hands on Luka Doncic but decided to trade him away.
Tier 5: Play-In Tourney Hopefuls
#17 – Golden State Warriors: C+
Record: (19-18)
Offensive Rating: 112.7 (16th)
Defensive Rating: 113.2 (19th)
Net Rating: -0.5 (17th)
The Golden State Warriors are one of the weirdest teams ever. Their overall record and numbers look nothing like a team prepping for a title defense. But, at times, Golden State has looked like the best team in the league. With Steph Curry healthy, the Warriors have one of the best starting lineups in the league. And when they’re at home? You can forget about it.
Let’s just take a cursory glance at Golden State’s home & road splits;
@ Home
16-2 record
115.0 offensive rating (16th)
106.0 defensive rating (2nd)
9.0 net rating (5th)
4-1 against top ten teams (+10.8 net rating in these games)
8-0 against middle ten teams (+10.4 net rating in these games)
On The Road
3-16 record
110.4 offensive rating (21st)
120.1 defensive rating (29th)
-9.6 net rating (29th)
0-7 against top ten teams (-22.6 net rating in these games)
1-5 against middle ten teams (-4.6 net rating in these games)
I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before, much less from a team with title aspirations like Golden State. For whatever reason, they can’t play on the road. Maybe it’s because of that preseason trip to Japan that altered their training camp schedule. Perhaps it’s because of Draymond’s punch. Who knows?
And I get that the Warriors have dealt with injuries to Wiggins and Curry. Curry was on a tear before his shoulder injury, which is set to keep him out for a few more weeks. Nevertheless, the Warriors need to solve their road issues if they want to go anywhere.
If they even become an average team on the road, Golden State would unequivocally become a contending team.
#18 – Miami Heat: D+
Record: (19-18)
Offensive Rating: 110.8 (24th)
Defensive Rating: 111.6 (8th)
Net Rating: -0.8 (19th)
The Miami Heat’s season has been a turbulent, sluggish mess. Their aging, creaky roster has looked far from the contending team they’ve been for the past three seasons. Jimmy Butler has missed time. Kyle Lowry looks like he belongs in a retirement home with his lack of explosiveness and movement.
Erik Spoelstra is still somehow squeezing a top-ten defense out of this team, but Miami’s offense is putrid. They’re 23rd in 3-PT% and 24th in restricted area shooting. Put simply, the Heat struggle to score the ball effectively. Not having Jimmy Butler, a go-to scorer in close games, hurt them dearly.
And things are not going to get easier for Miami. They have the hardest remaining schedule in the entire league. That doesn’t bode well if they want to try and make up some ground in the Eastern Conference. It seems like this era of Miami basketball is on its last legs.
Miami doesn’t have a lot of depth, and they’re relying on one-dimensional players or raw, project players for major minutes. That sort of thing has always helped Miami in the past in doses, but not this much. But, similar to lots of teams on this list, their best guys can carry them.
When Butler, Herro, and Adebayo are on the floor, Miami has a +13.1 net rating, which ranks in the 97th percentile of lineups in the NBA. Miami will have to rely on this trio heavily if they want to turn their season around. But, as of right now, another deep playoff run seems unlikely.
#19 – Indiana Pacers: A+
Record: (20-17)
Offensive Rating: 113.2 (13th)
Defensive Rating: 113.8 (21st)
Net Rating: -0.6 (18th)
The Indiana Pacers were supposed to be near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Despite by love of Tyrese Haliburton and Benedict Mathurin, I didn’t think this team would be anywhere near competitive this season. Nobody did. I figured that Indiana would trade Turner, Hield, and any other veteran player before fully resetting.
Instead, the Pacers have blended their veterans with their incoming youth. Rick Carlisle’s offense is a solid unit, one that can burn you from distance if you’re not careful. Before the season, I said that Tyrese Haliburton would have a 20-10 season. So far, that’s come true. He’s leading the league in assists and is on his way to his first All-Star game, much to the ire of Wally Szczerbiak.
The Pacers have a 116.5 offensive rating with Haliburton on the floor. When he’s on the bench, that number falls to 108.9. That, combined with Myles Turner shooting a ridiculous 41% from 3, has led the Pacers to this impressive start.
Indiana has held their own on the road and against teams above 0.500. It’s not like they’re beating up on teams beneath them. They haven’t backed down from any challenge thus far, and they may be a team who pushes for a play-in spot this season.
And, even if they don’t make it, this season has been a success. It’s this team’s first taste of success in the Haliburton era. Not too bad, if I say so myself.
#20 – Minnesota Timberwolves: F
Record: (16-21)
Offensive Rating: 111.8 (20th)
Defensive Rating: 112.8 (13th)
Net Rating: -1.0 (20th)
I think it’s time we call the Rudy Gobert trade one of the worst in NBA history. The Timberwolves went from being a fun, upstart, scrappy playoff team last year to a lifeless, pouty, anemic one this season. I don’t care that KAT has missed a lot of time with injury. This team wasn’t any better with him, anyway.
D’Angelo Russell is a black hole on offense that seems reluctant to pass the ball to Gobert down low. Chris Finch has given the ball more to Edwards recently, realizing he is the only thing that works on this team.
Let’s go back to Gobert. His defensive impact isn’t close to what it was in Utah. Teams aren’t scared of attacking him. Two-way Miami center Orlando Robinson was consistently beating him on the offensive glass in their matchup earlier this month.
With Gobert on the floor, Minnesota has a 110.5 defensive rating. When he’s off the floor, that number drops to 117.1. Considering what Minnesota gave up for Gobert, that’s pretty inexcusable.
Offensively, there’s a reason guys like Russell and Edwards don’t pass to him. He doesn’t have any post moves and he struggles even when he gets smaller defenders on him. Balls slip through his hands with regularity. When Towns was healthy, Minnesota’s offense had awkward spacing and a paltry 107.2 offensive rating, which would be the worst offense in the league.
Minnesota went from having a bright future and perennial playoff aspirations to likely missing them this season. They’re currently outside of the play-in picture and nothing indicates they’re going to turn things around. The vibes suck, the body language is even worse, and the product on the court is blinding.
Not fun.
#21 – Toronto Raptors: C-
Record: (16-20)
Offensive Rating: 113.0 (15th)
Defensive Rating: 112.9 (14th)
Net Rating: 0.1 (15th)
The Toronto Raptors’ length project is sputtering. Nick Nurse has a stable of long, versatile, switchable wings that he unleashes on teams every night. This formula worked last season when the Raptors roared into the playoffs with a strong second half. Nothing has been as smooth this season.
Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are the only two reliable players on this team. Scottie Barnes has regressed offensively. Fred VanVleet is inefficient and streaky, and so is Gary Trent Jr. Toronto’s bench is one of the worst in the league, and they have to play their starters way too many minutes.
Toronto went 5-10 in December with the 24th-ranked defense in the league. So much for all those versatile wings, huh? I don’t know if the Raptors will trade away some of their pieces this season, but they need to change something.
They need more depth, better guard play, and, most importantly, more consistent players. This roster is clearly not cut out for competitiveness. It’s a mish-mash of players thrown together, hoping that something sticks. The good news for Toronto is that they have pieces for the future. That’s not their problem. They have to figure out how to fill out the rest of their team.
I think Masai Ujiri will think of something.
#22 – Chicago Bulls: D
Record: (16-20)
Offensive Rating: 111.8 (19th)
Defensive Rating: 112.9 (16th)
Net Rating: -1.1 (22nd)
If any team needed to tank in the NBA, it would be the Bulls. All of their all-in swings have been whiffs. Nikola Vucevic is a shell of his former self, and the Magic not only got Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner thanks to that trade, they potentially have another lottery pick coming this season.
Lonzo Ball’s mysterious knee injury has kept him out this season, and it doesn’t appear that he’ll return anytime soon. Zach Lavine’s knee surgery is slowing him down, and he’s getting paid like a superstar, even though he’s not one.
All of these moves, combined with some stalling young players, have culminated in a disastrous season. After allowing 150 points against the Timberwolves in mid-December, there were some reports of a contentious locker room. Zach Lavine and the team weren’t seeing eye-to-eye.
Even though the Bulls have turned things around a bit, a reset seems imminent. They’re aging, they don’t have a lot of assets, and they don’t have any cap space. The perfect recipe for Chicago’s front office to press the self-destruct button.
Tier 6: Stuck Between Tanking and Play-In
#23 – Orlando Magic: B+
Record: (13-24)
Offensive Rating: 110.2 (27th)
Defensive Rating: 114.3 (25th)
Net Rating: -4.1 (26th)
The Orlando Magic have shown some signs of progress this season. #1 overall pick Paolo Banchero has been a force from day one, drawing free throws as a seasoned veteran would. Banchero is the frontrunner for rookie of the year, and it doesn’t appear anyone will take his spot.
Franz Wagner has improved his scoring and efficiency, becoming a proficient mid-range scorer. I love Wagner’s game, and he fits really well with Banchero. With the two of them on the floor, the Magic have held their own, posting a -1.9 net rating. That isn’t that bad, considering Orlando’s level of talent.
At one point, the Magic reeled off eight wins in nine contests. They’ve been around a 0.500 team at home this season. Jamahl Mosley’s team is progressing nicely, and it doesn’t look like they messed up the Banchero pick.
The only things you can hope for as a Magic fan is a healthier Jalen Suggs (who hasn’t played since Nov. 25th) and more Bol Bol minutes.
#24 – Washington Wizards: F+
Record: (16-21)
Offensive Rating: 111.9 (18th)
Defensive Rating: 113.0 (17th)
Net Rating: -1.1 (21st)
The Washington Wizards are finally showing signs of a collapse. After years of being mediocre, this Wizards team may be the one to break the camel’s back. The team that finally forces this front office to retool. After years of futility, the Wizards desperately need a tank.
They have a lot of assets on their team that other teams would value. Kuzma, Morris, Delon Wright, and Kristaps Porzingis, just to name a few. The Wizards have a lot of young players that need more minutes. Deni Avdija needs the ball more. What can Kispert do as more of a creator? Could we get Johnny Davis even ten seconds on the court? PLEASE!!???
Then there’s Bradley Beal. Beal has actually been really good this season, but he’s missed time with injury. But, it’s not like the Wizards can ever dream of moving him. He has a no-trade clause on the massive extension he signed this summer and he’s going to be making $50+ million dollars for a while. Nobody’s going to want to touch him with a ten foot pole.
It’s such a frustrating situation. I know that a majority of sane Wizards fan want this team to reset. They can only take so many years of mediocrity. Instead, they’re destined to win 35 games a year for the next century.
Damn you, Leonsis.
#25 – Oklahoma City Thunder: A+
Record: (15-21)
Offensive Rating: 110.5 (25th)
Defensive Rating: 112.1 (11th)
Net Rating: -1.6 (25rd)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having his second breakout. Since coming to OKC, SGA has quietly been one of the best players in the league. I think we can take the quiet part out now. This season, SGA has been a scoring machine, carrying the Thunder offense.
Watching SGA play is a special treat. He’s so slippery and elusive with the ball in his hands. He doesn’t need a consistent 3-PT shot to be effective. And he’s one of the best crunch-time players in all of basketball. It’s becoming harder and harder for me to stomach Sam Presti’s tanking efforts. I need to see a competent team around Shai ASAP!
Now, getting #2 overall pick Chet Holmgren healthy is the best way to do that. We’ll have to wait until next season to see his two-way prowess. Josh Giddey has been a steady presence in the backcourt, and lottery pick Jalen Williams (not Jaylin), has become a starter for this team.
Six games under 0.500 isn’t that bad for OKC. Their defense is surprisingly stout and Mark Daigneault is one of the more underrated coaches in the league. This year is a step in the right direction for OKC. Now, let’s see where they go with it.
#26 – Los Angeles Lakers: F
Record: (15-21)
Offensive Rating: 112.2 (17th)
Defensive Rating: 113.7 (20th)
Net Rating: -1.4 (24th)
I don’t have to explain this much. Aside from Lebron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers are a mess on both sides of the ball. They’re bad, Darvin Ham doesn’t really know what he’s doing, and LA has no way of getting better.
They can’t trade Lebron James this season, so they have to struggle through this season. I’ll be amazed if they make the playoffs. If they do, their first-round opponent will easily take care of them. A slew of poor decisions has led the Lakers to this point.
Trading KCP and Kuzma for Westbrook was a terrible idea. Losing Caruso in free agency has proved to be costly. The only thing the Lakers have to look forward to is Lebron James breaking the all-time scoring record. Speaking of which, he is 527 points behind Kareem.
In December, James averaged 31.2 points on 54% shooting from the field. Holy hell. At this pace, James would break the record in 17 games. Assuming he misses a couple games here and there, James will likely break the record in early-mid February. Mark your calendars, folks!
Tier 7: Wembanyama Watch
(Note: None of these teams had expectations entering this season. Grading them harshly would be an unnecessary kick when they’re already down)
#27 – San Antonio Spurs: n/a
Record: (12-24)
Offensive Rating: 110.3 (26th)
Defensive Rating: 118.9 (30th)
Net Rating: -8.6 (30th)
The Spurs are bad. I’ve enjoyed watching Devin Vassell progress and Jeremy Sochan’s new free-throw routine (and hair). But, yeah, Wembanyama is in their near future.
#28 – Charlotte Hornets: n/a
Record: (10-27)
Offensive Rating: 107.9 (30th)
Defensive Rating: 114.8 (26th)
Net Rating: -6.9 (29th)
God damn this team sucks. I have one favor to ask. Please, give Mark Williams more minutes. Stop playing Mason Plumlee unless he agrees to only shoot his left-handed jumpers from now on. Deal?
#29 – Houston Rockets: n/a
Record: (10-26)
Offensive Rating: 108.9 (29th)
Defensive Rating: 115.6 (28th)
Net Rating: -6.6 (27th)
I will now hand the mic to Eric Gordon;
The only redeemable quality about this team is Alperen Sengun. I will now remind Rockets fans for the umpteenth time that they passed on Evan Mobley for Jalen Green. Carry on.
#30 – Detroit Pistons: n/a
Record: (10-29)
Offensive Rating: 110.8 (23rd)
Defensive Rating: 117.6 (29th)
Net Rating: -6.7 (28th)
Cade Cunningham got hurt. Killian Hayes got into a fight. That’s about it for Detroit this season. Also, why is Dwane Casey still here? Am I missing something? Why is he being asked to suffer through this hell? Is this the price for LeBronto? I guess to.
I’ll give them some points for these beautiful throwback, teal jerseys;
Muah
What would you change about these grades? Leave a comment down below!
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