Predicting The 2nd Round Of The NBA Playoffs!
Then there were 8. After one round of the NBA Playoffs, half of the field is gone and now the 8 best teams in the league remain. The first round was already crazy, what will the 2nd round bring? Today I will be giving my predictions for all the 2nd round matchups.
Eastern Conference
(1) Philadelphia 76ers vs (5) Atlanta Hawks
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers easily cruised past the Wizards in 5 games but they now face a very good Hawks team that is hungry. This will be a challenge for Philly and they’ll have to play pretty good, or at least better than they did against Washington to win.
Offensively, the 76ers are good but they are held back. Obviously the offense is so night and day depending on Embiid’s health. He tore his meniscus, but it’s not like bad. So I am expecting him to play, just don’t know what percent he’s at. But when he has things going, he’s so good. The mid-range is so tough to guard, he shot 48% from 10-16 feet and 50% from 16 feet to the 3-PT line. He obviously draws a lot of fouls and is just a force.
Clint Capela is a very good defender and Embiid did struggle with him, albeit in limited minutes (24.3 minutes per game in 3 games against ATL this season). Embiid shot 45% from the field, less than 20 points per game. I know the playoffs are different, but with Embiid’s health and struggles against Atlanta, it might be a cause for concern. I would have to see how he plays in this series to really evaluate that, but that is interesting.
The supporting cast is good but they are the reason this offense isn’t better. Namely Ben Simmons. Simmons is a great defender and is the primary ball-handler. But in the playoffs, he can clog things up with his inability to not hit 3’s. I know it didn’t matter against the Wizards, but it’s the Wizards. It’ll be interesting to see how they use Simmons. In the post? Off-Ball? As a screener? But he cannot just stand around the perimeter, because then he becomes worthless. He has to be aggressive and he has to be involved.
Tobias Harris is probably my x-factor for Philly. I consider him to be the 2nd best offensive guy for Philly just because he’s more consistent. He’s had a great year and he has all the tools to be good. Philly has to get him touches and like Simmons, he has to be aggressive. 10-15 shots every game, he has to be involved. He can be very good as a 2nd option. He will be tested, likely guarded by De’Andre Hunter. So he’ll have to show why he got that max-extension in 2019.
The 76ers aren’t a good shooting team. They were 23rd during the regular season in 3-PT makes per game and even though they were 11th in percentage, that is misleading. The 76ers have to hit 3’s in some capacity otherwise they will struggle against a Hawks team that has some good shooters. Curry and Green are the lifeblood of their 3-PT shooting and they have to be on point.
The 76ers want to dominate down low, something that might be easy considering the Hawks ranked 20th in opponent paint scoring. During the regular season, the Hawks averaged 19.3 fouls per game. That ranked 18th in the league. In the playoffs they averaged 19 fouls per game and that ranked #1. So they’re good at not fouling. I know Joel Embiid can push that limit, but Philly has to be aggressive (Simmons and Harris), force the agenda, get to the line. The key for Philly is playing through their best players. Harris, Simmons, and Embiid are all very good and I don’t think Atlanta can guard them when they’re all clicking. Shooting is a concern and so is spacing, but I am confident Philly will be pretty good offensively.
Defensively the 76ers are very good, the strength of their team. Joel Embiid anchors the paint, a very big body who can take up space and not get bullied in the post. He is a pretty good shot-blocker as well, he’s very good. Ben Simmons is an elite perimeter player and he has so much versatility and length. Expect a lot of him on Trae Young and that will be one heck of a matchup.
Tobias Harris and Danny Green are solid options, expect Danny Green on Bogdanovic. Green will have to do a good job navigating those screens. Seth Curry is the weak-point, but he’s not horrible and Philly has a lot of good defenders around him to kind of hit that weakness. Matisse Thybulle is one of the best defenders in the league. The surprising part about that is that he’s 24 years old and only in his 2nd season. He is aggressive like Simmons and a ball-hawk.
In just 20 minutes per game, he averaged 1.6 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. The offense isn’t very good, but he’s also a very good defender.
Philly has an elite defense that will give the high powered Hawks offense headaches. The 76ers ranked 4th in opponent FG%, #9 in opponent 3-PT%, and #2 in opponent turnovers. They force the 2nd most turnovers in the league and they were #4 in points off turnovers. Turning the ball over against Philly isn’t a good idea.
The 76ers have a very good defense, they just have to actually use it unlike the Knicks. They have to pressure Trae Young on ball screens and make him shoot 3’s instead of floaters. If he gets to the rim, make him one dimensional. Trae has two options, lob or floater. Take one away, preferably the floater. Make him make the pass instead of the shot.
The 76ers have to stick with Bogdanovic and Huerter. They have to watch Capela and Collins, Collins is especially dangerous because he shoots 40% from 3. The Hawks bench is nothing special although guys like Williams and Gallinari can get going.
The Hawks are dangerous, primarily on the perimeter and the 76ers have some great perimeter defenders. I don’t think the Hawks offense will be able to run wild like it did against the Knicks.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks dominated their first round series against the Knicks, their offense and defense being very good. But they face a much better 76ers team in the 2nd round, a real challenge for the young team. Let’s see how they matchup with the 76ers.
Offensively the Hawks have some firepower and that all starts with Trae Young. Trae Young was unstoppable in the first round as he can really give defenses problems. His range is the first thing. While Young only shot 34% from 3 in the first round, he’s still dangerous from deep and he can stretch out the defense. But Young is at his best in the pick and roll, as he can just pick you apart with his elite skill set.
As a scorer, despite his size, Young is pretty good at getting to the rim and especially good at drawings fouls. That will be key in this series as Thybulle and Simmons are both very aggressive defenders and an easy way to get rid of them is draw fouls. Young’s floaters are lethal, as he has one of the best float games in the league. Trae Young led the lead in pick and roll possessions and pick and roll points. So he’s going to get a lot of ball screens and he’s good at scoring with them.
He’s also a very good passer, heightened with the weapons he has. You can’t leave Bogdanovic open or Young will find him. Collins and Capela are lob threats, so it’s really tough to guard Young’s scoring ability and his passing abilities. But Philly has a lot of great perimeter defenders, so other guys have to step up.
Bogdan Bogdanovic was meh in the first round, going from ending the year as one of the best shooters to shooting just 33% from 3 against the Knicks. He has to get it going like he did to end the year to be really dangerous. He’s very good, just need to see that elite shooting.
John Collins also had his ups and down in the first round. He had a great Game 4 with 22 points but he also had 0 points in Game 2. The key for Collins is not getting in foul trouble. He picked up early fouls in Game 2 and never got in rhythm. If he can stay on the floor, great, because he’s so good with Young. He can stretch the floor and shoot and is also a great lob threat. Need him to be aggressive and hopefully not pick up early fouls.
Clint Capela is a rebounding machine and a lob threat. Most of his time will be spent trying to slow down Embiid, but he did average 3.0 offensive rebounds in the first round. If he can get those extra possessions for Atlanta, that’s huge. But like I said, he needs to put all his effort on defense.
Like Capela, De’Andre Hunter is a defense first guy. After his knee injury, the offense that he started the year with hasn’t been there unfortunately. He can hit 3’s but the Knicks left him open more often than not. He’s streaky offensively, but like Capela, it’s defense for him.
The bench is ok and it does have guys who can score. Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari are all offense guys. So if they can’t score, they aren’t much use. Huerter is a good shooter, Okungwu got good minutes in the first round, giving some size and rebounding down low. The Hawks bench is their weak point as in the first round that’s when the Knicks would take advantage, when there was no Trae Young in the game. They have to be good and give Young some rest, bridging the gap in his minutes.
The 76ers defense is very good, especially in forcing turnovers. The Hawks were good during the regular season at not turning the ball over and they cannot turn the ball over more than like 10 times otherwise it’ll be too tough for them to win. The offense is going to meet a very tough challenge in the Philly defense. We’ll have to see if the Hawks are up to the task.
Defensively, the Hawks game-planned for Julius Randle perfectly. They always had help coming and they forced him to the sides instead of the middle where he loved to shoot. They are going to have to do some more of that to try and slow down Philly in this series. Let’s start with defending Embiid.
Capela is one of the best defensive big guys, so he should be better than most. He has to be physical and push Embiid out from down low. He has to contest his mid-range shots without reaching and letting Embiid flail to draw fouls. I think that to avoid Capela foul trouble, blitz Embiid. He’s not the passer that Jokic is and the 76ers aren’t loaded with shooters. Other than Capela the Hawks don’t have much. Okongwu is a rookie and likely not physical enough for Embiid. So doubling likely going to have to happen to avoid fouls on Capela.
I expect Hunter to be switching between Harris and Simmons. I would want him on Harris more considering Simmons is mainly going to be down low, but if he’s getting by Collins or whoever a lot on drives, Hunter might have to go on him. Hunter is going to have a tough series but he handled himself against an All-Star in Julius Randle and he’s going to have his hands full once again.
John Collins is a question mark because he has good size, but is he quick enough to guard Harris or Simmons? Maybe he can stay with Harris although Harris does move around a lot. If Simmons isn’t driving the ball a lot I could see Collins on him but he is definitely a question mark in this series. We’ll have to see who he guards.
The Hawks have good depth at the forward position to guard the 76ers and they have Capela, one of the best guys in the league if you want to defend Embiid. The key of getting the ball out of Embiid’s hands, make other guys make shots. You don’t want to foul Embiid a bunch, give him 13+ free throws or something like that. Trae Young and Kevin Huerter will be targeted but I see the Hawks matching up decently well with Philly in this series.
Matchup Verdict
I am going with the 76ers for a few reasons. They have lots of guys who can defend the Trae Young pick and rolls. They have weapons on offense and I don’t know if Atlanta can cover both Harris and Simmons. Hopefully Embiid is healthy, my whole verdict banks on him being healthy. If he is healthy, 76ers should win. If he’s not 100% of even misses games, might have a problem. As of right now, I am going with Philly.
76ers Win 4-2
(2) Brooklyn Nets vs (3) Milwaukee Bucks
Brooklyn Nets
Scary Hours baby. This is going to be a test for the Nets. Let’s see how they handle it. Their team is historically good on one end, but it that enough to beat a very good Bucks team? Let’s see how they stack up with the Bucks.
Offensively, what more is there to say? You have 3 of the most talented scorers of all-time on the floor at the same time. They were very good against Boston, so what’ll be different.
KD has looked very good this year, no signs of that achilles injury bothering him. He can shoot from anywhere, get to any spot, and can do it all efficiently. Giannis is (likely) going to be his matchup and that’ll be interesting. KD will likely guard Giannis on the other end, so it’ll be a very weird head-to-head matchup.
Kyrie is one of the best ball-handlers in the league, so crafty at getting to the rim and hitting tough shots. He struggled against Boston and now faces Jrue Holiday. It’ll be a challenge for Kyrie but he’s obviously one of the most talented players in the league.
But the most important member of the Big 3 is James Harden. He hasn’t been the scorer we all know he can be in Brooklyn, but his passing is so valuable. He sets up teammates perfectly, makes the offense move and be less isolation centric. He can score if need be, he had 41 points in Game 3 against Boston. He’s still capable. Jrue Holiday will also be on him, but I do expect Middleton to be on him a decent bit and I like that matchup. Harden is the most valuable player on the Nets.
Oh yeah, then there’s the bench. Joe Harris was the best 3-PT shooter in the league this season and easily the best catch and shoot shooter of the year. He shot 52% on catch-and-shoot 3’s this season, which is just wild. He is also a good cutter and works very well with the Nets. Blake Griffin is going to have to play big in this series against Lopez and Giannis. He’s going to have to be physical and play as big as he possibly can.
Jeff Green had that foot injury in the first round, nothing too serious. He will miss Game 1 but he’s supposed to come back at some point during the series. He’s a very good floor spacer and another wing defender for Giannis. If the Nets get him for the majority of the series, that’s big. Nicolas Claxton is the Nets only real big guy in this series and while I usually like him playing, it might not be the best in this series.
He’s young and the Bucks are very experienced in their frontcourt. I’m not saying he can’t do it, he still deserves some minutes, but put him on a short leash.
The Nets size is their main problem. Playing small is good offensively but if they do that, they have to box out and gang-rebound, something that Steve Nash has preached all year. Claxton is their only really big and the Bucks are one of the biggest teams in the league. Offensive rebounds could be a problem in this series, so it’s extremely important that the Nets box out. But the offense is always going to be situated. Lets go to the side of the ball that everybody is worried about.
Giannis can be a problem for anybody, but with the Nets limited size, that becomes a major problem. The Bucks have done a better job using Giannis off-ball and giving him the ball right at the rim with no dribbles instead of him trying to go through a wall, which Brooklyn likely wouldn’t have anyway. KD is going to be on Giannis and my advice would be stick to Giannis like glue if he’s a screener. If he’s in the post send help sooner rather than later.
But KD did guard Jayson Tatum in the first round and he did a very good job. Tatum struggled to start that series and Durant was a big reason because of that, using his supreme quickness and length. KD isn’t he biggest guy, but he has to force Giannis outside the paint, make him make jumpshots.
The Bucks are obviously a good shooting team, but it’s either that or a Giannis dunk. It’ll be interesting to see what the Nets do against the Bucks as Giannis can pose a serious matchup nightmare, depending on how Budenholzer and the Bucks decide to use the Greek Freak.
Khris Middleton is a very good 3-level scorer and comes off of lots of screens. If KD is guarding Giannis, who Harden guard Middleton? I think that would be the matchup if the starting lineups stay the same for both sides. I mean Harden is good in the low post but that’s about it. Again, interesting to see how the Bucks play this.
Jrue Holiday doesn’t score, but he’s a great playmaker and Irving is going to have to work around a lot of screen to hang with Holiday. The Big 3 is going to be working. I think either Jeff Teague/Bryn Forbes is going to be starting in place of DiVincenzo, so that’s really the only guy you can escape too, but even Forbes is a very good shooter. So the Big 3 is going to have to work a lot more on defense.
Brook Lopez is going to be a giant in this series. Not only will Griffin/any Nets center have to go out to the 3-PT line to contest his 3’s, they have to box him out. Lopez averaged 1.5 offensive rebounds this season, so like I touched on earlier, box out.
This is going to be a tough series for the Nets, especially defensively. Their Big 3 is going to have to work against the Bucks Big 3. The Nets are going to have to box out the bigger Bucks otherwise they are going to lose this series. Their offense is good but they have to put an effort forth defensively. Giannis poses a big problem, so it’s going to be interesting to see how the Nets can combat the Bucks supreme size.
Defense is always going to be the key for the Nets. If they play decent defense for like half the game, they’re going to be fine. That’s all it takes. Offensively, I am literally not worried. The Bucks could have the greatest defense ever and the Nets would still be able to score. Defense wins championships and that couldn’t be more true about the Nets.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks dominated their first round matchup with the Heat as they looked very sharp. Now they face another title contender in the 2nd round, the Nets. This will be the ultimate test for the Bucks, a team that has underperformed in the spotlight for the last few years. Can they pull off the upset this year? Let’s see if they can.
Offensively the Bucks can be very good if they decide to adjust. They adjusted a lot in that first round, using Giannis more off-ball instead of their normal tendency to put him at the top of the key. Adjustments like those are going to be needed, so the Bucks offense needs to be ever-changing. Talking to you Budenholzer.
But the Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the league and one of the best offenses overall. This all starts with Giannis, who could be lethal in this series if used right. He’s been used poorly in the last couple of years, but in the Heat series he was used off ball more and it paid off. Giannis is going to be a giant in this series and if they use him in the post a bit, they can be successful. They can even use Giannis at the top of the key more because the Nets are such a problem. Giannis is going to be a problem in this series.
But like usual, the others have to step up, especially with the juggernaut offense on the other side. Khris Middleton was very good in the first round and he’s not going to have Jimmy Butler on him this series. He has to be aggressive because he can score from anywhere with ease. The Bucks need him to be big-time in this series.
Jrue Holiday also has to be big-time, but mainly with his passing. He’s the playmaker in this starting unit and him in pick and rolls is dangerous. He has to make Irving or whoever is guarding him work, he can’t just stand around, which sometimes tends to happen in Bucks offenses. His defense is the main priority but he has to make some impact offensively.
Brook Lopez was (surprisingly) very good in the Heat series and he’s going to have a much easier time against Blake Griffin than Bam Adebayo. Lopez’s most important skill is height, so him standing on the perimeter isn’t the best thing. He has the ability to create so many 2nd chance opportunities in this series, he could be very valuable on this end.
With no Donte DiVincenzo for the rest of the series, other guys have to step up. Bobby Portis is streaky but can be very good. Bryn Forbes was better than Jimmy Butler in the first round and his shooting off the bench can give the Bucks offense a push. Pat Connaughton is meh and so if Jeff Teague.
The Bucks can definitely score in this series because of their supreme size. I imagine Giannis is going to be a force and wreak havoc, so hopefully he gets some sort of help in this series. But if the Bucks can’t stop what’s on the other side, what they do offensively won’t matter at all.
Defensively, you have to just stay in front of them. I imagine Giannis is on KD, Holiday on Irving, and Middleton on Harden. Those are some of the better defenders in the league and you just have to stay in front of them. Whoever the Bucks start at shooting guard, either Forbes or Connaughton, they will be targeted. The Bucks switched a lot of screens in the first round, don’t know if that’s the best idea in this series.
Brook Lopez cannot be in drop coverage otherwise Irving and Harden off screens and getting to the rim will be too easy. The Bucks just have to bank on the role players missing. Aside from Harris and Shamet, you’ll leave Griffin and Brown open if they’re not in the paint. You have to guard Jeff Green, although he is missing Game 1, so we’ll see how healthy he is for the series.
Defensively the Bucks don’t have a lot of options because the Nets just force your hand. You have to play the Big 3 straight up, don’t double them. That leads to open shots. Forbes/Connaughton/whoever is guarding Joe Harris can’t help off him, he’s the best shooter in the league not named Steph Curry.
Defensively, sometimes you just have to pray that the Big 3 misses some shots and that’s sometimes going to happen and sometimes it’s not. That’s what makes Brooklyn so dangerous.
Matchup Verdict
I am going with the Nets here, their offense is so good. But the Bucks have probably the best defensive unit to handle the Nets and their supreme size could be a problem. If they’re able to make adjustments, they could be dangerous. But the Nets have the better depth and no Donte DiVincenzo is going to really hurt the Bucks. A shame this series is in the 2nd round, but I am going with the Nets.
Nets Win 4-3
Western Conference
(1) Utah Jazz vs Clippers/Mavs
Utah Jazz
Of course the Mavs couldn’t close things out and I want to post this, so I’m just going to say this. If LA wins I have them winning in 6/7 and if Dallas wins I have the Jazz in 6/7.
(2) Phoenix Suns vs (3) Denver Nuggets
(2) Phoenix Suns
The Suns took down the defending champs in the first round and now they have another tough task in the form of the Denver Nuggets. Denver is a very good team but so is Phoenix. They showed they aren’t afraid of the moment and if they can get a healthy Chris Paul, look out.
Offensively, the Suns are good but they need CP-3 fully healthy to be very good. Devin Booker is obviously very good, he dominated Game 6 against the Lakers with 47 points. He is lethal in the mid-range and off of screens. Denver doesn’t really have anybody with the size to guard Booker, so expect a big series.
But you saw that Phoenix struggled when Paul was hurt. Game 1 of this series is on Monday and it’s safe to say CP-3 won’t be 100%. But if he can be over 70%, with the ability to hit some jumpshots, that’s enough. CP-3 is a calming presence for the young Suns, setting the tone. He sets up everybody nicely and he is one of the most clutch players in the league. The Suns need CP-3 as healthy as possible for them to win.
Deandre Ayton shot 80% from the field in the first round, averaging 16 points and 11 rebounds. He was a force on the glass and can do that again. While his defense against Jokic is most important, if he can give you extra possessions as well as make Jokic work in those pick and rolls, mission accomplished. Ayton is my x-factor for the Suns. When he plays like he did in the first round, it’s hard to stop their backcourt and him.
The Suns supporting cast was up and down, some of it due to the health of CP-3, but they are a solid supporting cast. Crowder and Bridges are great 3&D players and Jae Crowder is a great dancer, just ask Lebron James. They will likely be guarding the very talented and lengthy MPJ on the other side. Crowder and Bridges just have to hit some 3’s (this applies to Torrey Craig as well) and play defense.
Cameron Payne was one of the heroes for the Suns in round. Depending on the health of CP-3, he could be key. Dario Saric wasn’t used much in the first round but he could be valuable in a series where Denver also goes small with Millsap and JaMychal Green off the bench. Cam Johnson is a very good shooter, the Suns are deep offensively.
Devin Booker is going to be a problem. Expect a lot of pressure going his way otherwise he’s going to go off because Denver doesn’t have any perimeter help. If CP-3 is 70%+ healthy, the Suns are dangerous. Phoenix is deep and they have the tools to make a weak Denver defense work. If they can involve Jokic and MPJ more offensively, the better it is. I’m not worried about the offense. The defense is what I am worried about.
Let’s start with the obvious, the MVP, the Joker. He cannot be stopped, especially with how aggressive he’s been this year. He can shoot the 3-ball very well. He’s very good in the post as a passer in scorer. He is good at drawing fouls and makes ridiculous plays all the time. Deandre Ayton cannot stop him and I don’t recommend Phoenix doubling him.
Ayton cannot get into foul trouble because like Portland, they don’t have size off the bench. Everybody else is smaller than Jokic so that won’t work. Maybe you double Jokic occasionally to avoid fouls in Ayton and make other guys make shots. But what you really want to do is make him a scorer, not a passer. Jokic is at his best when he’s creating for others. With no Jamal Murray, Denver loses that shot creation as not many Nuggets are great at shot creating. So that’s why you can stay home more often than not and make Jokic score a bunch.
This is a strategy that worked for Portland in Game 1 of the first round. I don’t think sending pressure Jokic’s way is the answer. Occasional doubles are good and Ayton being on the floor is key, but sometimes you have to accept the fact that you can’t stop certain players in this league.
But a player that you can stop of MPJ. MPJ is like KD in that his height can give him any shot he wants and he’s an elite shooter. Bridges and Crowder are smaller but they have to fight over screens and pressure MPJ on ball, make him feel like he’s being guarded. MPJ isn’t great at driving the ball, he averaged just 2.2 drives per game against Portland in the first round. Make him make shots off the dribble. Don’t let him get those catch and shoot 3’s off of pindowns.
The Nuggets backcourt is sneaky good without Murray and Barton. Barton missed all of the first round although it seems like he will be playing in this series, a good sign for Denver as they get some more firepower. But guys like Paul and Payne have to make sure guys like Rivers and Monte Morris don’t burn them. If those guys get going, just ask Portland what happens.
Rivers is a decent shooter with a great first step at getting to the rim. Monte Morris is just solid all around, especially good in the pick and roll and not turning the ball over. Give them respect and play them tough. Campazzo, don’t worry about. Aaron Gordon, rather have him shooting than hit right at the rim.
Defensively, it all depends on how Ayton can guard Jokic and what the Suns as a team can do to slow him down. For Ayton, availability is the greatest ability, can’t afford him to sit on the bench with fouls. The Nuggets backcourt is decent but nothing too crazy, but definitely can’t ignore them except for Campazzo. Craig, Bridges, and Salsa Man (Crowder) have to pressure MPJ off screens and make him drive. Aaron Gordon did shoot 60% from 3 in the first round, only on 2.5 attempts per game though. Make him shoot.
Defense is so tough against Denver simply because of Jokic. Interesting to see the approach taken by Monty Williams and the Suns. But if Denver can slow down Jokic a bit or take away MPJ somewhat, they can definitely win with the weak Denver defense.
(3) Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets beat my Blazers (totally not salty) and now they advance to the 2nd round but they face a much better Suns team. They are still missing key guys like Murray, Dozier, and Barton, with Barton being the only guy who might play in this series. The Nuggets face an uphill battle but they can still make the series competitive.
Offensively, you have the Joker, the MVP, easily the best center in the league. He is so good at every aspect of the game. His passing abilities, especially out of the post, is just so unique for a center. You can’t double him, he’ll find the open guy. Can’t leave him open for 3, shoots nearly 40% from out there. He has great touch in the mid-range and in the post, he can draw fouls, I’m not worried about him or really the defense that Phoenix decides to run. But can he get help? That’s another question.
MPJ was very good in the Portland series, but he had games like Game 4 where he would shoot the ball just 3 times. That can’t happen. MPJ has to be aggressive and look for his shots. But he has to take good shots and get good looks for the whole game. In Game 6 against Portland, after 22 points in the first, he was just jacking up shots. He has to remain in control and put pressure on the defense with those lethal pindown screens that Denver runs for him. MPJ is the x-factor for Denver if they want to try and pull off the upset here.
The Nuggets backcourt is pretty good. It will be better if Will the Thrill returns this series, but that’s still up in the air. Campazzo shouldn’t be starting. He’s a defensive liability and while he is a pest, Dame cooked him in the first round. I don’t think he’ll fare well against CP-3. He doesn’t bring much offense, etc. Austin Rivers is a solid shooter and is very good at getting to the rim. Defense is also below-average.
Monte Morris scored 28 points in Game 5 and 22 more in Game 6 to close Portland out. He’s just solid, good shooter and ball-handler. Doesn’t turn the ball over and he works well with Jokic. In the regular season, he and Jokic were a +7.4 per 100 possessions. In 98 minutes together in the playoffs, Morris and Jokic are a +6.5. He should be starting but he’s going to close and I really like what he brings to the table.
JaMychal Green is undersized but he brought great energy in the first round and he has the ability to stretch the floor with his shooting. Same goes for Millsap who shouldn’t play more than 10 minutes as age has really slowed down his mobility.
The Nuggets offense is probably fine. They need Jokic and MPJ to be themselves and get some help from role players. The defense they are facing is a lot better than the swiss cheese defense they faced in the first round, so expect a lot more resistance and a lot more working for scores. But defense remains a huge problem for the Nuggets.
They don’t have guys who can guard Booker like they didn’t have guys to guard Dame and CJ in the first round. However Dame and CJ are smaller guards, so at least you have a chance. But Booker is is 6’5″. So Campazzo, Rivers, and Morris are all smaller than him. Shaq Harrison is a good defender but he’s also shorter than Booker. You can put pressure on Booker, but that’s so hard to do with Jokic on the floor. They hardly doubled Dame and paid the price for the whole series.
Chris Paul is a shorter guy but again, I don’t see anybody stopping him in the pick and rolls. Denver better hope his shoulder isn’t feeling great because I’m not optimistic about their chances. Jokic constantly guarding pick and rolls with the lob threat that Ayton is as well as what Chris Paul and Booker can do is scary. Denver just doesn’t have the depth defensively that they’ve had the last two years.
MPJ is another guy whose not a great defender. Aaron Gordon is solid but he didn’t even guard Dame that much in the first round. I don’t know if Denver can survive if he just stays on Jae Crowder or Mikal Bridges the whole series. The Suns and Blazers are similar with their elite backcourt talent and pick and rolls as well as shooting on the perimeter. The Nuggets outscored Portland, they didn’t defend them. I don’t see this series being any different.
I really doubt Denver can stop the Suns. They don’t have the right personnel and they have so many guys to target; Jokic, Campazzo, Rivers, MPJ. That’s too many guys in your rotation that aren’t great defenders. So as good as Denver’s offense can be, I find it very hard to see how they can slow down the Suns.
Series Predictions
I just think the Suns will be too much. Jokic can win a couple of games but the Suns have the talent advantage and unlike Portland, they can actually defend somewhat. So I just think that the Suns should be able to take care of business in this series. Really only thing that can hold them back is CP-3’s bothersome right shoulder. Other than that, not much.
Suns Win 4-2
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