Predicting The Conference Finals Matchups!
And then there were 4.
Four teams remain in the NBA, 4 teams trying to win an NBA title. Today I will give you my in-depth analysis into each series and choose a winner, just like we’ve done for the prior two rounds. Without further ado, let’s get into these predictions!
Eastern Conference
(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs (5) Atlanta Hawks
(3) Milwaukee Bucks
I expected the Bucks to be taking on the 76ers, but now they have homecourt for this series, an added bonus. They dominated Miami and then came back from down 3-2 against Brooklyn and they are back in the Conference Finals for the 2nd time in 3 years.
This is another very important series for the Bucks who are trying to become the first team to win a title without a head coach.
They have the talent to win it all this year, but can they finally break through and get Giannis a ring?
The Bucks offense was very good against the Nets and they should find it a bit harder to score against the Hawks just because the Hawks have better personnel, but I am confident about this chances.
Now this is on paper, expect Mike Budenholzer to draw up terrible schemes all series long that hinder the Bucks.
Anyway, here’s the offense for you.
Giannis dominated the Nets with his size and speed and I expect similar results in this series. The Hawks don’t have anybody to guard him with De’Andre Hunter done for the year. Clint Capela isn’t fast enough and Collins isn’t strong enough. The Bucks just have to use Giannis off-ball again and he’ll be very good. Giannis can’t settle for jumpshots and he has to make some free throws. But like I said, Giannis should be very good again in this series.
But the Bucks need their co-stars to step up.
If they win, it’ll be because of Holiday and Middleton.
If they lose, it’ll be because of Holiday and Middleton.
Khris Middleton has been very up and down this postseason. He was very good against Miami and decent against Brooklyn. But they need 20-25 points per game from him in this series. Without De’Andre Hunter on the floor, that’s not that big of an ask.
Jrue Holiday is going to be guarded by Trae Young, Bogdanovic, or Kevin Huerter. He was getting locked up by Joe Harris in the other series, but Milwaukee desperately needs a 3rd consistent scorer. I know he’s best as a passer but the Bucks need like 15+ points from him a night. He struggled against the Nets and at the very least I would like to see him more involved in the offense, maybe some Giannis pick and rolls? Just some food for thought.
The Bucks Big 3 should be dominant in this series. The Hawks don’t have the right personnel for any of them. I don’t really expect the Bucks need to rely on their role guys as heavily as they did against Brooklyn but Brook Lopez can sometimes hit 3’s. He can also be pretty good at offensive rebounds. Forbes and Connaughton can shoot. PJ Tucker can sometimes shoot. Bobby Portis didn’t play at all against the Nets but maybe he plays in this series, he also offers some shooting.
But offensively, as long as Mike Budenholzer doesn’t miss things up, I’m not worried.
The Hawks don’t have great matchups for any of the Big 3. Giannis has to be used off ball and in pick and rolls. They need to involve Holiday more and hope Middleton plays well The role guys don’t have to do too much. The offense should be, key word should, be fine. Defense should also be solid in theory, but remember, Mike Budenholzer is an idiot.
Trae Young is your main target. Luckily you have Jrue Holiday. Holiday just has to be physical with Young and push him farther away from the hoop. Obviously those pick and rolls are going to be a problem but Jrue Holiday is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, I trust him. What I don’t like is Brook Lopez and the Bucks horrible scheming.
You saw it so much in the Nets series and you’re going to see it more in this series. They are going to involve Brook Lopez in pick and rolls so much because Lopez just drops straight to the rim. So if Trae Young gets free off of a screen, he can just get right into his floater. Along with the lob threats like Capela and Collins, Brook Lopez is about to be burned toast with his drop coverage. With this in mind, Lopez shouldn’t play much in this series, but Budenholzer won’t do that so the Trae Young pick and rolls will be very effective.
I don’t know who guards who in this series. Holiday on Young and Lopez on Capela is to be expected. But who goes on Collins? Probably Giannis right? Middleton likely goes on Bogdanovic/Huerter, but where does PJ Tucker fit in all of this? Maybe he guards Huerter or somebody, which is just interesting. Tucker did a great job on KD but will the speed of the Hawks guards effect him? Maybe, it’s hard to say as of right now. Interesting to see how these matchups play out when the series starts.
But that drop coverage really scares me. Perhaps you put Giannis on Capela for those pick and rolls and you put Lopez on Collins and dare Collins to shoot? Like I said, those pick and rolls really do scare me, especially with the Bucks poor scheming.
The Bucks have the personnel for this series. They have the perfect guy for Trae Young and they have length and size. Middleton and Tucker should be good enough for Huerter and Bogdanovic and Giannis on Collins is perfectly fine. The only thing that worries me is scheming, because Mike Budenholzer has the basketball IQ of a 5-year old. The Bucks have a very good personnel group for the Hawks. They have supreme length with Middleton, Lopez, Holiday, and Giannis. They are stout and they did a pretty good job slowing down the Nets, who were a complete juggernaut.
On paper, this looks too good to be true. Offensively the Hawks certainly don’t have anybody who can guard anybody on the Bucks Big 3. Defensively you have Jrue Holiday for Trae Young and then you have solid matchups everywhere else. This series should be over quickly in theory, but Mike Budenholzer loves to make things complicated. The Bucks will probably lose because of bad scheming even though they are vastly better.
(5) Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are in the Conference Finals. They started the year 14-20 but with Nate McMillan they have been so much better and they upset the #1 seeded Philadelphia 76ers at home in Game 7 to get here. But no offense, I’m not optimistic of their chances in this series. Their story is great, the underdogs making it this far, but they are vastly overmatched in this series. Sorry to dampen the mood, but it’s true.
Offensively the individual matchups are tough. Young is guarded by Jrue Holiday, one of the best defenders in the league. Not as big as Simmons which is better for him but Holiday is still very, very good. Giannis/PJ Tucker on John Collins is going to be tough. Middleton on a hobbled Bogdanovic is tough, so not a lot of advantages. One weakness is Brook Lopez. The Hawks just have to attack Brook Lopez again and again pick and rolls. Trae Young has to be able to hit outside shots and then hit the shots that are created by the drop coverage.
The Collins/Capela lob threat duo is also likely to be there because of that drop coverage but they just need guys to play well. Hopefully Bogdanovic is healthy. Hopefully Collins can get through whoever is guarding him and score. The bench is definitely the area I feel the most confident about for the Hawks offense.
The Bucks don’t have a lot of defense off the bench, so Lemon Pepper Lou and Gallinari should be able to score. They need Gallinari and Williams to shoot well and give them some juice off the bench. If the Hawks could also get to the free throw line a bunch that would help. But I feel like it’ll be tough for them to score. To be fair, we said that in the 76ers series and they won but I just feel like they’re going to struggle in this series.
Defensively, it’s the same thing. Their 3-guard lineup of Young, Bogdanovic, and Huerter is going to struggle. They don’t have guys on the perimeter for Holiday or Middleton. Giannis is going to be a major problem without De’Andre Hunter. I just don’t know if there’s a whole lot that the Hawks can do defensively without De’Andre Hunter on the floor. I don’t know how they beat Philly without Hunter for the whole series, that series was just so weird.
The Hawks just have too many liabilities and the Bucks can take advantage. The Hawks are overmatched (on paper) on both sides. Obviously a lot can change when the series actually starts, but I just don’t see a lot of room for the Hawks to succeed in this series. Unless they are able to completely shut down everybody outside of Giannis and then they completely dismantle the Lopez drop coverage screens then they might have a chance? They need Bogdanovic to be fully healthy and they need 20+ points a game from John Collins and I don’t see that happening.
Series Outlook
The Bucks should win this series in 5. It would be 4, but Mike Budenholzer will probably screw one game up. The Bucks have more talent on both ends, this should be easier than the Nets. Key word should. The Hawks don’t have the defenders to matchup with the Bucks, it just seems like Milwaukee is destined to win.
Bucks Win 4-1
Western Conference
(Disclaimer): Because the NBA loves to help with me with scheduling, Game 1 of this series from yesterday will be factored in. With that being said, here are my predictions for the Western Conference Finals.
(2) Phoenix Suns vs (4) LA Clippers
(2) Phoenix Suns
The Suns upset the Lakers in the first round and dominated Denver in a 4-0 series sweep to get to the Conference Finals. This team is playing so well on both sides of the ball, but they got some heart wrenching news before the start of this series. Chris Paul entered the infamous health & safety protocols with no timetable for his return. Paul missed Game 1 but the Suns still won. Paul’s health is pivotal for the Suns chances in this series, but let’s breakdown how the Suns will fare against the Clippers in this series.
Offensively, the Suns are very good, but so much better with CP-3. In Game 1, Devin Booker had a triple-double. He was very effective at getting to the rim and he really attacked the Clipper bigs and their drop coverage on screens. If CP-3 if healthy, both guards will be doing a lot of that. The Suns need their elite guard(s) to be really aggressive at getting down hill. Booker looked really good in Game 1 doing so and it’s safe to say it would have looked just as good with CP-3 in the lineup.
That dribble penetration from up top creates a lot of opportunities. Crowder, Bridges, and Cam Johnson all played well in Game 1. They got good looks on kick out passes and then they were able to make moves off the dribble and attack the rim off of closeout. Like I said, the dribble penetration from the guards will be huge in this series. Cameron Payne did a really good job of attacking the rim, with 11 points and 9 assists in the absence of Paul. So whoever the guards are, just get downhill.
Deandre Ayton continues to be very good offensively. His size is an obvious strength when the Clippers go small, as he can create 2nd chance opportunities. He got a look of easy dunks/layups in the pick and rolls. That’s with Booker and with Chris Paul those easy looks are heightened. Ayton is going to be a solid offensive presence in this series, sort of a safety valve for an easy bucket whenever needed.
The bench was very good, Cam Johnson, Torrey Craig, and Dario Saric all played good minutes. Cam Johnson and Craig got really good looks from the dribble penetration and Saric was a great safety valve when Booker was doubled, making several key passes that led to good shots. The Suns bench might have not scored as well as the LA bench, but they are far better defensively and I like what they bring to the table going forwards in this series.
Offensively, the Suns are great. They move the ball and they have a lot of weapons. They love their mid-range shots and getting to the rim. They played really well in Game 1 without the Point God and if he plays in this series, their offense looks even better. They were able to get lots of good looks with their dribble penetration and their stars played like stars. The Suns offense really isn’t a worry, but their defense might be.
Defensively the Suns have been the best team this postseason, but the Clippers can force your hand so much on defense and you saw that in Game 1. Ayton is probably one of the best bigs suited for the small ball lineup, but it’s such a big ask to ask somebody like that to close out to shooters on the perimeter, protect the rim, and play good pick and roll defense.
A good counter to the small ball lineup is Dario Saric, who is a little bit better, mobility wise, at kicking out to shooters. That’s another look that the Suns can go to if Ayton is struggling at covering those small lineups.
Ayton is going to have his hands full trying to cover all the things that the Clippers do well, he did a decent job in Game 1 but he’ll be tested. The Clippers small lineup is also good at what the Suns perfected in Game 1, penetration. They get a lot of one-on-one’s with Reggie Jackson, Terrence Mann, and Paul George. The Suns struggled to stay in front of their guy in Game 1 as LA hit 20 3’s, a lot of them from dribble penetration.
If they’re unable to stay in front of the Clippers attacking, they’re in trouble. They have to be able to keep the Clippers in front of them and make them make tough shots.
With Kawhi likely being out for most if not all of this series with that unknown knee injury, guys like Bridges and Crowder can focus on guarding Paul George. They did a good job of forcing him to make tough shots, which he did sometimes but he did shoot below 40% from the field in Game 1. He was 7/8 from the free throw line. The key is not giving him too many fouls shots and continue to make him make tough shots.
The Suns defense was decent enough in Game 1, but it’ll have to be that and better if they want to win. The Clippers rotations were poor in Game 1 but I don’t (hopefully) expect them to be that bad in Game 2. The Suns just have to make sure they keep the Clippers in front of them and avoid letting them probe the paint and get open 3’s. Deandre Ayton’s defense is going to be so big in this series, how well can he play with that small unit out there? That’s just something the Suns have to hope he’ll be good at doing because that lineup, even without Kawhi, has been so good in this year’s playoffs.
But I definitely like the Suns chances in this series even without Chris Paul. With him, they’ll be even better on both ends.
(4) LA Clippers
The Clippers baffle me sometimes. They ended the Jazz series on fire with their excellent coaching and scheming, winning Games 5 and 6 without Kawhi Leonard. But in Game 1 of this series, similar to their starts in the last two rounds, they have terrible scheming. Their defense was awful because of it and they blew a chance to steal homecourt advantage without Chris Paul on the floor. However, there is still hope for the Clippers.
All they have to do is lose Game 2 and they’re in business (only semi-joking).
Offensively, the Clippers have been great this postseason and nothing changed against the #1 postseason defense. The Clippers offense was fine throughout this game and it was surprising the game was close for almost the whole way with how terrible the defense was. The offense started with Paul George and that’s how it’s going to have to be for this series, assuming there’s no Kawhi.
Paul George was ok. He scored but he was inefficient. The Clippers used him in the post a little bit too much as Crowder and Bridges held their own for the most part down there. I liked when PG was in isolation, he hit some tough shots. I also liked what I saw when he was in pick and rolls. But at the end of day, Paul George has to be Paul George. Without Kawhi, he has to be aggressive and play like he’s the superstar that he is, really that simple.
But for LA to compete with the Suns, they need their role guys to step up. That’s how they beat the Jazz and if they want to pull off another upset, they need their role guys to step up. Terrence Mann was solid but he has to be aggressive at getting to the rim. He should get to the rim and knock down those corner 3’s. That’s how he scored nearly 40 points in Game 6 against Utah and he’ll have to score from those areas to be effective in this series.
Marcus Morris was awful in Game 1 and hindered by a knee injury. The Clippers need him healthy for his (sometime) elite shooting and solid wing defense. Reggie Jackson is going to have to be their #2. He was very good in Game 1, hitting 3’s and getting to the rim. He’s very good in isolation, he has the ultimate green light and he’s benefiting. They need him and PG to lead the way.
The bench is interesting. Most of the guys are defensive liabilities and most don’t contribute offensively. Kennard can hit 3’s, something that LA is going to need to do to win this series. Rondo can provide ball movement and fluidity. Zubac and Cousins don’t offer that much offensively, so really it’s just Rondo and Kennard.
Like I said, the offense was good. LA needs to continue to attack Cameron Payne and Devin Booker on the perimeter. They need to probe the paint and get 3-PT shots. They have to move the ball and not play in isolation. They need Paul George to be Paul George and hopefully some role guys to step up and help. I know that sounds like a lot, but most of those things have been happening. They just need to play their game and they’ll be fine (also somebody needs to donate Kawhi a healthy knee).
Defensively I am a little bit worried, especially with no Kawhi and how bad the rotations were in Game 1. The Clippers played their big guys a lot, both Zubac and Cousins getting considerable minutes. They were both awful as Devin Booker carved them up. They cannot play their centers, they haven’t been able to play them at all in these playoffs. They just can’t. They have to go small and put a bigger guard on Booker. Now Kawhi would have been perfect, but injuries suck so maybe George or Batum. Maybe Marcus Morris assuming his knee is fine. I don’t want to see Rondo or Beverley on him. But a bigger body on Booker.
I know going small is great for offense but in this series Deandre Ayton will probably score a lot. He had 20 points in Game 1 and 3 offensive rebounds. A counter to that is boxing him out with multiple guys but I would rather have Ayton score than Booker, any day of the week. You can’t let Booker drop 40 points, you’re just not going to win.
The Suns have bodies for Booker alone but if CP-3 comes back and they don’t have Kawhi, they are stretched thin. PG, Morris, Batum, Mann, and Beverley. I’m not in love with those defensive options for Booker alone, much less Booker and CP-3. The Clippers just have to play small and don’t let Booker get such easy shots off of pick and rolls.
They also have to play better one-on-one defense. Cameron Payne shouldn’t be getting dribble drives to the rim with ease. Neither should Mikal Bridges or anybody who isn’t Booker. They have to play physical and make the Suns make shots over then instead of shots around them.
Defensively, I am not in love. The Clippers are short-handed and if the Suns get back to full strength, it’s going to be tough. Some easy fixes are playing small and putting bigger guys on Booker to shadow him. No drop coverage at all on screens and limiting dribble drives. If you want to double Booker/CP-3, you need the other 3 guys to have very good rotations. They doubled Booker a bit in Game 1 and it always led to easy shots and that can’t happen if you want to double.
The Clippers might just have to hope the Suns miss some shots and just score more because it’s hard to imagine them shutting down what the Suns do offensively.
Series Outlook
I have the Suns winning this series in 5 games. I am basing this off the fact that Chris Paul is going to come back at some point and that Kawhi is unlikely to, which is where things are headed as of right now.
The Clippers couldn’t slow the Suns down because their scheming was horrible.
The Suns looked a lot better in Game 1 and I believe they are the better team. Maybe this series goes to 6, but I have Suns in 5.
Phoenix Wins 4-1
What Are Your Predictions From The Conference Finals? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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I’m guessing you are not a fan of Coach Budz? :-)))
I don’t know what gave you that sense 😉