Predicting The First Round of the NBA Playoffs

The NBA Playoffs are rapidly approaching. Around this time of the year, every NBA fan becomes a standings guru, attentively watching their team’s races. Strength of schedule remaining becomes the most crucial thing in the world.

Today, I want to try and predict what the first round of the NBA playoffs will look like. That will include correctly predicting the results of the NBA play-in tournament. In addition to that, I will grade the series based on entertainment value.

The Wild, Wild, West

The Western Conference is once again a bloodbath. Is anyone surprised? Trying to contend in this conference is a headache. The stars are aplenty, and so are the well-put-together squads. Trying to split hairs and make a prediction in this conference is like trying to find a needle in a pile of needles. Here is my best attempt at doing so.

#1 – Phoenix Suns
#2 – Memphis Grizzlies
#3 – Golden State Warriors
#4 – Dallas Mavericks
#5 – Utah Jazz
#6 – Denver Nuggets
#7 – Minnesota Timberwolves
#8 – LA Clippers
#9 – New Orleans Pelicans
#10 – Los Angeles Lakers

The Phoenix Suns have the #1 seed on lockdown. An injury to Chris Paul be damned, they have a commanding nine-game lead for the first seed. They’re getting homecourt throughout the playoffs. That is a given at this point of the season. Other than that, it’s a crapshoot.

Losing Steph Curry to a foot injury kills Golden’s State chances for the #2 seed. Barring any miracles, they’ll end up as the third seed. The Grizzlies have benefited from an unhealthy Golden State all year long. They’ll do so again as they get the second seed in the West.

The Mavs and Jazz have been in a race for the fourth seed all year. To me, I think Dallas will get homecourt advantage in that series. Dallas is one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Their end-of-year schedule is a cakewalk. They also have this guy called Luka Doncic. You may have heard of him.

The 6th through 8th seeds remain unchanged. I flipped the Lakers down to the 10th seed for reasons so obvious I’m not going to explain them. So, New Orleans gets the 9th seed.

Ok, with that out of the way, let’s get down to business.

The Wild, Wild, Western Play-In Tournament

The NBA’s play-in tournament gives floundering teams a chance for false hope. Teams like LA and New Orleans wouldn’t be sniffing the playoffs. But, through monetary greed from the NBA, they have a chance. Based on my predicted standings, here is what this tournament would look like in the West.

#7 Minnesota T-Wolves vs #8 LA Clippers

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best offense in the NBA since the start of 2022. They’re a well-rounded unit with some under-the-radar star power. Led by Karl-Anthony Towns, one of the most underrated players in recent memory, they have a chance to track down Denver for the 6th seed and avoid the play-in tournament.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, has had a much more tumultuous season. They’ve been without Kawhi for the entire year, and Paul George may not return in time for the playoffs. Their offense is sluggish and relies on too many role players. While their defense is stout, their lack of kick on offense is concerning.

But, LA’s one advantage in this matchup is experience. Tyronn Lue is used to being an underdog. Meanwhile, we don’t know how Chris Finch’s team will fare. Still, I have a feeling this is Minnesota’s moment. Their coming-out party in the West.

Winner: Minnesota Timberwolves – 7th seed in the West

#9 New Orleans Pelicans vs #10 Los Angeles Lakers

Trading for CJ McCollum was the right move for this team. Even without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have caught fire at the right time. Their offense has become lethal, as adding another true scorer in CJ has done wonders for them. In this matchup against the Lakers, they’re playing with house money. This game means nothing for them in the long run.

On the flip side, this game means everything for LA. They HAVE to win this game. Despite all the problems they’ve faced this season, they need to make the playoffs. Los Angeles needs to play with heart and hustle. What could go wrong?

This game is hard to predict, seeing as we don’t know the status of Anthony Davis. But I’ll give the Lakers the edge. New Orleans will have to wait for another season.

Winner: Los Angeles Lakers

#8 LA Clippers vs #10 Los Angeles Lakers

This battle for Los Angeles would be the most interesting one we’ve had in recent years. Marquee matchups between these two teams have become common. Sure, this matchup doesn’t have the star power it once did, but this would be a fun game to watch.

While the Lakers have the best player on the floor in Lebron James, the Clippers have the intangibles edge. They’re hungrier, scrappier, and the more resilient group. We’ve seen the Lakers’ body language become horrible after things start to sour. I’m guessing their attitude won’t suddenly change at the end of the season.

All of this is to say one thing. The Los Angeles Lakers won’t make the playoffs this season.

Winner: LA Clippers – 8th seed in the West

Ranking The Four Western Conference First-Round Matchups

After the dust has settled, this is how I think the Western Conference will look once the postseason starts;

Phoenix Suns
Memphis Grizzlies
Golden State Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
Utah Jazz
Denver Nuggets
Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Clippers

Now, it’s time to grade the potential matchups we’d get in this scenario from best to worst.

#4 – Phoenix Suns vs LA Clippers

Last season, even without Kawhi, the conference finals between these two teams was fun. I don’t think things will be the same for a few reasons. For one, injuries will be the headlining factor in this series. Will PG-13 be back in time? What about Chris Paul?

The Clippers don’t have the same feel-good vibes they had last season. I find it hard to believe they can contend with the Suns without first having won a few playoff series under their belts. Unlike last year, they won’t have a 39-point explosion from Tre Mann to fuel them.

The Suns may drop one game due to Paul’s status, but they’ll breeze past this series.

#3 – Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves

It feels like a crime to put this series at #3, but that should tell you something about the series that come next. The Memphis Grizzlies are undoubtedly the best show in basketball. Their high-flying antics, led by Ja Morant, are must-see TV.

Memphis is one of the deepest teams in the league. It’s always fun to have Memphis be a playoff team. That atmosphere, with those yellow towels flying, is electric. That’s not to ignore their opponent, the Minnesota Timberwolves.

For the first time since 2004, the T-Wolves have hope. For the first time since Garnett left, they have playoff aspirations. Minnesota’s offense has been the best in the league since the start of the new year. Led by Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota was my dark horse in the West for a reason.

X-factors like Edwards and D-Lo make this matchup exciting. The matchup between Pat Beverley and Ja Morant will be exhilarating. The best part of this all? Two series have chances to be better.

#2 – Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz

This first-round matchup is all but guaranteed to happen. If you like scoring, you’re in for a treat. This series should feature plenty of that and more!

The Dallas Mavericks have a rejuvenated defense under new head coach Jason Kidd. Luka Doncic and company no longer bear the burden of a certain 7’3″ big guy. Spencer Dinwiddie has fit in seamlessly. Luka Doncic has been on a tear. The role players are filling in where they can.

We all know how good playoff-Luka is. No matter how many times Rudy Gobert stops him, Doncic is going to be nearly impossible to slow down. This year, for the first time in three years, Dallas might be favored to win this series.

While the Jazz have had a fine season, I can’t get behind them. Their problems from last year haven’t fixed themselves in the slightest. They still rely heavily on 3-PT shooting on offense, and tend to get streaky on that end. On defense, they have nobody outside of Gobert to try and guard Luka Doncic.

Still, this series will be fun.

#1 – Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets

I would give a lot to see this matchup in the first round. Two of the best offensive weapons in the league, Curry and Jokic, squaring off? Sign me up!

We don’t know how healthy Curry will be for this matchup, but I think he’ll be on the floor at the very least. That’s enough for me, and it should be enough for the Warriors. Golden State has that championship DNA, the ability to flip a switch at any moment and take over games. Assuming they stay healthy, they’re going to be a problem in the playoffs.

Denver is another team that is no stranger to injuries. If not for Nikola Jokic, who knows where this team would be? Rumors suggest that both Jamal Murray and MPJ will be back for the playoffs. That would change the course of this series, perhaps in favor of Denver.

This matchup has it all. From the superstars to the electric home atmosphere, getting this first-round series would be fantastic.

The Wild, Wild…East?

For once, the Eastern Conference is somewhat comparable to the West, if not better. Even at this juncture of the season, there are six teams in reasonable striking distance for the #1 seed. If that doesn’t tell you how tightly contested things are, I don’t know what will. Here is my best attempt to predict how things will look in April.

#1 – Miami Heat
#2 – Philadelphia 76ers
#3 – Milwaukee Bucks
#4 – Boston Celtics
#5 – Cleveland Cavaliers
#6 – Chicago Bulls
#7 – Brooklyn Nets
#8 – Toronto Raptors

I’m not going to go too in-depth for the play-in tournament on this side. I think the Nets will get the 7th seed, and Toronto will get the eighth seed. Unless the Hawks continue to be an enigma, I don’t see them making the playoffs this year.

Now, it’s time for some entertainment value.

#4 – Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors

This series has some kick to it. Kyle Lowry gets a homecoming with his former team. The coaching matchup between Nurse and Spoelstra will be fantastic. Two well-run franchises squaring off in the postseason. What’s not to love?

Defensive versatility is at a premium in this series. From Barnes to Adebayo, I wish everyone good luck in their attempts to score in this series. You won’t find many series as evenly matched as this one.

#3 – Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The Boston Celtics have dominated 2022. A combination of an elite frontcourt tandem and the best basketball of Jayson Tatum’s career has propelled them in the standings. This first-round matchup should prove to be a challenge for them.

Cleveland’s size down low is second to none. Since the Celtics aren’t terrific from outside, I wonder how they’ll look offensively in this series. Still, Boston has the upper hand.

The Cavs are even younger than them, if that’s believable. Their offense is unable to create open looks at times. Outside of Darius Garland, this offense is prone to stagnate.

Defense will be at a premium in this series, but Boston shouldn’t have too many problems in this series.

#2 – Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls

The defending champs are hitting their stride at the right time. Getting Brook Lopez back should help anchor their defense, which has been porous at times. Giannis is an unstoppable force, maybe even more so against a Bulls team that doesn’t have the tools to stop him.

While the Bucks are trending up, Chicago is trending down. Injuries have caught up to them, and a steep decline in play has followed. They can’t beat contenders, and I think that they’re going to crash and burn in the postseason.

If they’re healthy, I’ll give them a fighter’s chance to win 1-2 games. Getting any playoff action in Chicago is fine by me, but this is a tune-up round for the Bucks. Nothing more.

#1 – Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets

Even if Ben Simmons doesn’t emerge from his hole, this series will be must-watch TV. Embiid and Harden against Durant and Irving? Yes, yes, yes, yes, and more yes.

The 76ers may want to avoid the Nets, but I don’t care. I need this series in my life. The offensive explosions we’ll see will be out of this world. Since Kyrie can’t play in every game, this series will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen.

Harden’s return to Brooklyn should be delightful. If Simmons even sits on the bench in Philly, I’m sure nothing will go wrong. If there were one thing on my playoffs wishlist this year, this series would be at the very top. Make it happen, Adam!

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Predicting The First Round of the NBA Playoffs

The Wild, Wild, West