Predicting The Western Conference Standings
I have kind of done this already, but not quite. I reacted to the over/under win projections from Vegas and while that isn’t technically a standings prediction, it’s pretty darn close.
But (still) isn’t anything to talk about. The Aaron Gordon contract was decent, I’d give it maybe a C+. John Wall leaving the Rockets isn’t surprising at all, his contract is the worst in the NBA. So there isn’t anything really newsworthy to talk about. Therefore, we are recycling content. My favorite.
Today I will predict the Western Conference Standings. Obviously, the win totals are kind of irrelevant, so just pay attention to the seed. Also remember, 10 teams, make the playoffs with the new play-in rules.
So here’s how I’ll do this. I will list out the full standings with the records and then explain them. Simple enough?
#1 – Phoenix Suns (57-25)
#2 – LA Lakers (55-27)
#3 – Utah Jazz (53-29)
#4 – Denver Nuggets (50-32)
#5 – Golden State Warriors (48-34)
#6 – Portland Trail Blazers (47-35)
#7 – Dallas Mavericks (47-35)
#8 – Memphis Grizzlies (44-38)
#9 – LA Clippers (43-39)
#10 – Minnesota T-Wolves (42-40)
#11 – New Orleans Pelicans (40-42)
#12 – Sacramento Kings (37-45)
#13 – Houston Rockets (28-54)
#14 – San Antonio Spurs (26-56)
#15 – OKC Thunder (22-60)
Now, of course, don’t take the record thing into full account. Injuries are unfortunately still a thing, Covid is still there, and we simply don’t know how some teams are going to pan out when we still have a whole month before the NBA season starts. But now is the time for the explanation for all of the standings.
(Note: I will not be explaining the Rockets, Spurs, or Thunder. I fully expect all of these teams to be bad. The Rockets and Thunder are rebuilding and the Spurs just don’t have talent. I don’t need to write a whole paragraph about those teams, they’re not that complex).
#1 – Phoenix Suns (57-25)
Just because a team lost in the Finals, doesn’t mean they’re bad. The Suns are still a really deep and talented team who should still be contending this season. They aren’t title favorites or anything, but people seem to forget what they did in 2021. The only way I see them taking a big step back is if CP-3 regresses hard and young guys like Bridges and Ayton don’t step up in his place.
But I imagine that won’t happen. The Suns have great coaching, they’re getting to play a 2nd season in this system and a 2nd season with Chris Paul, so I imagine some of the young guys will improve from last year. The Suns have good leadership and they seem like a selfless team, so I’m not expecting some sort of Finals hangover.
The Suns are easily going to remain near the top of the Western Conference and push for 60 wins. I don’t see them winning less than 50 games unless they get hit hard with injuries, something that fortunately didn’t happen to them last year.
CP-3
D-Book
Mikal Bridges
Jae Crowder
Deandre Ayton
Landry Shamet
Cameron Payne
Javale McGee
Cameron Johnson
Dario Saric (injured)
I’m expecting big jumps from Bridges, Ayton, and Cam Johnson. Javale McGee is a solid backup option and I absolutely love the addition of Landry Shamet. This team is still good and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them snag the #1 seed.
#2 – LA Lakers (55-27)
People are going to get mad at this, but I have my reasons. For one, I do think that the Lakers are the best team in the Western Conference. But that doesn’t mean the Lakers will be the #1 seed and there are actually good reasons for why I think this way, I promise.
For starters, this team has so many new pieces. They’ll have some rough patches, something that the Suns likely won’t experience as much because they have the same core from last year.
Secondly, the Lakers star trio isn’t one that I believe in. Russell Westbrook cannot shoot and this trio won’t be as good as some people think they will be.
Finally, injuries. Anthony Davis is made out of glass and I would have to put some money on him missing 10-20 games. Lebron James isn’t indestructible anymore. I suspect a few games where he doesn’t play 30 minutes and even a few nights where they give him a rest in anticipation for the postseason.
The Lakers are also one of the oldest teams in NBA history. Older guys break down and with the NBA returning to an 82-game regular season, some of the veterans like Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, and Trevor Ariza might slow down due to injuries.
With all of that being said, they’re the best team in the West. Lebron is incredibly reliable in the playoffs and if AD remains healthy, the Lakers don’t need that much from their supporting cast. This roster will mesh very well at some point and if they’re healthy for the playoffs, good luck to everybody in the Western Conference.
Russell Westbrook
Malik Monk
Trevor Ariza
Lebron James
Anthony Davis (start playing center more please)
Wayne Ellington
Kendrick Nunn
Carmelo Anthony
Talen Horton-Tucker
Dwight Howard
DeAndre Jordan
Kent Bazemore
#3 – Utah Jazz (53-29)
The Jazz are likely going to have another good regular season where they have a great defense and a great offense. The shooting will likely be great again and there will be times where they look like contenders. But it’s all a mirage, as the Jazz are the definition of a regular-season team.
The Jazz are going to be a good team that could make it to the Conference Finals with some luck, but they lack something so critical to team success in the playoffs. While Rudy Gobert is arguably the most impactful defender in the NBA, the Jazz don’t have good defenders on the wing or the perimeter.
The Clippers burned them last year and teams like the Suns and Warriors can do similar things to them with the backcourts they possess. I didn’t believe in the Jazz last year and their defense certainly didn’t improve in the offseason, so I’m expecting similar results from last year.
Great regular season but they just aren’t built for the postseason. Similar to the Toronto Raptors when they had DeRozan + Lowry, never able to get past Lebron in the East.
Mike Conley
Donovan Mitchell
Bojan Bogdanovic
Royce O’Neale
Rudy Gobert
Joe Ingles
Jordan Clarkson
Jared Butler (R)
George Niang
Rudy Gay
Hassan Whiteside
Not to mention that they lost Derrick Favors, a great backup center. Favors was a cap causality as the Jazz frantically tried to cut down their luxury tax figure. The Jazz are stuck with the team they have with little to no wiggle room money-wise. This team isn’t going to win a title, so they’re just kind of treading water right now.
#4 – Denver Nuggets (50-32)
I love how people just seem to underrate the Nuggets every season. You would think that me, a Blazers fan, would put them lower, but they’re really good. Their roster is already great without their second-best player in Jamal Murray. If they had Murray, they would be legitimate title threats in the West.
The depth is insane outside of reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, who remains incredibly underrated by everybody. MPJ is a rising star who is likely to take a big jump in his 2nd full year as a starter. They signed Aaron Gordon long-term, a solid move considering all that he does defensively for them.
The guard corp is solid with the likes of Monte Morris, Campazzo, rookie Nay’Shon “Bones” Hyland, Austin Rivers, PJ Dozier, and Will Barton behind Murray. JaMychal Green is a solid backup and Jeff Green was one of the most underrated free-agent signings this offseason. Add in Michael Malone’s coaching and you have one hell of a team. Oh, how I wish Jamal Murray was healthy.
Jamal Murray (Morris/Campazzo In His Place)
Will Barton
Michael Porter Jr.
Aaron Gordon
Nikola Jokic
Morris/Campazzo (whichever one doesn’t start)
Austin Rivers
Jeff Green
JaMychal Green
Nay’Shon “Bones” Hyland
PJ Dozier
The Nuggets are incredibly underrated. They are the same team from last year and they are going to be really good once again. Hopefully, Jamal Murray can make a return before the playoffs because if they get even 80% of his production, they’re better than the Jazz and certainly have a case against the Lakers and Suns.
#5 – Golden State Warriors (48-34)
Most people would have the Warriors above the Nuggets, but for the same reasons as the Lakers not being the #1 seed in my eyes, the Warriors aren’t as good as some people make them out to be. But their roster has gotten a lot better, a lot deeper, and now they should be a playoff team.
Obviously, Steph Curry is still amazing and the best player in the league. Draymond Green is a defensive mastermind. Andrew Wiggins had the best season of his career last year. Those 3 guys are great and the Warriors added a lot of talent around them. Klay Thompson is hopefully going to play in 2022, which is great after he missed the past two years with injuries.
Andre Iguodala, Otto Porter Jr, and Nemanja Bjelica were all solid veteran pickups for the bench. James Wiseman can hopefully play better than he did in his rookie season as with more experience, I’m expecting him to be better. But that’s where my problems lie with the Warriors.
They have 3 incredibly young and raw players: James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody. Wiseman has the most experience and should help the Warriors more, in theory. Jonathan Kuminga has ridiculous upside but he’s only 18. Moses Moody, another lottery pick, is only 19 years old.
I fear that the Warriors are relying on their young guys too much and they’ll have a similar year to last year where playing veterans just helps them win more. I’m really hoping that’s not the case, but I do have my concerns. The good news for Warriors fans is that you have a lot more depth to deal with such a problem.
I think the Warriors will be a solid team and if Klay Thompson comes back healthy enough and the rookies are playable in the playoffs, Golden State is a team you do not want to face in the first round.
Stephen Curry
Klay Thompson (Jordan Poole/Moses Moody until he comes back)
Andrew Wiggins
Draymond Green
Kevon Looney
James Wiseman
Jonathan Kuminga (R)
Jordan Poole/Moses Moody (whichever one isn’t starting when Thompson is out)
Andre Iguodala
Nemanja Bjelica
Otto Porter Jr.
Juan Tuscano Anderson
#6 – Portland Trail Blazers (47-35)
{Sigh} Let’s get this over with. As a Blazers fan, this offseason was underrated by most but we’re still in the same place as last year. Adding Cody Zeller, Ben McLemore, Tony Snell, and Larry Nance Jr. is great in my opinion, but there are a lot of teams who are still better than us.
The only way I see us getting better is if we trade for Ben Simmons, but I doubt our conservative front office does that. I do think we’re better than most people think we are, but I am still kind of frustrated that this team is ok with doing what we’ve been doing for the past few seasons.
If the starting lineup can stay healthy, I have hope. Dame-CJ-Powell-Covington-Nurkic was a great starting lineup last year, one of the best in the league. In the regular season, that starting 5 had a net rating of +14.9, and in the playoffs, that net rating jumped up to +19.5.
If we don’t run into major injuries like we have the past two seasons, the starting 5 should keep us competitive in most games. The bench improved defensively, but I do have my worries about Chauncey Billups.
While Mr. Big Shot was great as a player, his resume as a coach isn’t impressive. What I mean by that is that he has one year of coaching experience. What could go wrong? The defense has been awful the past couple of seasons and while there are some simple solutions, I need to see some creativity from Chauncey.
Other than keeping Nurkic healthy, maybe you use Nance at the 5 and play some small ball? Maybe you go big and take out Powell and put in Tony Snell? Just some ideas because we can’t have a bottom-5 defense for the 3rd straight season. It just has to be like 18th or something and I’ll be cool.
My Blazers are likely going to lose in the first round again and Damian Lillard will soon be gone. While I go cry my eyes out, here’s the roster;
Damian Lillard (not for long)
CJ McCollum
Norman Powell
Robert Covington
Jusuf Nurkic
Tony Snell
Larry Nance Jr.
Ben McLemore
Cody Zeller
Anfernee Simons
Nassir Little
#7 – Dallas Mavericks (47-35)
The Mavericks and Blazers were basically neck-and-neck record-wise for the whole season last year. Since both teams had less than ideal offseasons where they weren’t aggressive and didn’t become contenders, I have them having the same record once again.
But I wise that Dallas did more because I hate that they’re wasting Luka Doncic. Doncic did sign his 5-year supermax extension, but that doesn’t give the Mavericks a pass to just sit around and do nothing. Re-signing Tim Hardaway Jr. is great. I liked the addition of Reggie Bullock. But getting good role players is only what you do when you have your stars intact.
Dallas doesn’t. Kristaps Porzingis isn’t the same player that Dallas traded for as injuries have completely wrecked his career trajectory. Now KP is frustrated because he isn’t getting the ball. I’m frustrated because Dallas should be contending. Good thing they still have a good coa-
Jason Kidd. Jason Kidd is this team’s coach. God save us all.
Until the Mavericks move Porzingis and get Luka an actual 2nd star (Bradley Beal, Jaylen Brown, Ben Simmons, etc), they aren’t going to contend, and come playoff time, Luka will continually carry this team but they won’t win because the supporting cast isn’t good enough to help him.
The same thing has happened the last two seasons and I think it’s going to happen again. I just hope they can finally get him a co-star that can give him the scoring support he needs to wreak havoc on the rest of the league.
Luka Doncic
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Reggie Bullock
Dorian Finney-Smith
Kristaps Porzingis
Jalen Brunson
Maxi Kleber
Josh Green
Moses Brown
Sterling Brown
#8 – Memphis Grizzlies (44-38)
The Grizzlies disappointed me this offseason. They made a lot of interesting moves, but they lost a lot of their core from last year. Some really impactful players are gone and now the new guys have to fill in their shoes. I didn’t really get the point of some of their moves this off-season, but they are still really good.
Their starting lineup led by Ja Morant is still solid. The defense should remain elite under Taylor Jenkins as Memphis looks to make another run at one of these low playoff spots.
We have to talk about the new additions and the subtractions for the Grizzlies because there are a lot of them;
Notable Additions:
Steven Adams
Ziaire Williams (#10 overall pick)
Santi Aldama (#30 overall pick)
Jarrett Culver
Notable Subtractions:
Jonas Valanciunas
Justice Winslow
Grayson Allen
The Grizzlies made a lot of moves this offseason. I think they downgraded at center with the loss of Jonas Valanciunas, although that trade did get them 10th overall pick Ziaire Williams, who I think has sky-high potential down the line. Losing Grayson Allen is going to leave a hole on that bench.
Guys like Desmond Bane and Xavier Tillman Jr. should take jumps in their 2nd season, but if the Grizzlies want to make the playoffs, it all banks on Jaren Jackson Jr. Jackson played all but 11 games last season and didn’t do much. They need him to stay healthy and out of foul trouble. I think he’s talented and they need him on the floor and for him to have a bounce-back season.
The Grizzlies are a weird team, a very different team from last season, but I still think that they are a playoff-caliber one. Memphis is a team you can never count out, so it’ll be interesting to see how they perform this season.
Ja Morant
Dillon Brooks
Kyle Anderson
JJJ
Steven Adams
Desmond Bane
Xavier Tillman Jr.
Jarrett Culver
Brandon Clarke
Ziaire Williams (R)
Santi Aldama (R)
De’Anthony Melton
Killian Tillie
#9 – LA Clippers (43-39)
The Clippers without Kawhi Leonard are polarizing. Obviously, it sucks that Kawhi Leonard might miss all/most of the season. At best he comes back just in time for the playoffs, but this season will be like his 2018 season where he played just 9 games with the Spurs.
The team around Kawhi is good and that’s why they are a play-in team, but they certainly aren’t contenders. They’ll be good in spurts, but I doubt we’re seeing another top-4 finish from this team.
Not only are the Clippers missing Kawhi for a huge time period, but this team also added a lot of new pieces. Re-signing Batum and Reggie Jackson were good moves. But they added a lot of new moving parts. They traded on draft night to acquire Keon Johnson, a solid, versatile defensive wing.
They traded Patrick Beverley and Rajon Rondo for Eric Bledsoe, which was easily the weirdest trade of the offseason. I get why both teams moved the pieces that they did, but Eric Bledsoe just isn’t good anymore. The good thing is that Bledsoe’s contract is only bad for this season. He’s getting paid $18.1 million this season but his contract is only partially guaranteed next season.
For the Clippers to excel, Eric Bledsoe needs to be good scoring-wise. Paul George has to be aggressive and score more like 24-27 points per game instead of the 22 ppg average from his last two seasons. Terance Mann demands minutes, Marcus Morris has to be a consistent 2nd option, and Ty Lue has to coach like he did in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
There are so many variables for this team to succeed, so it’s hard for me not to imagine them in the play-in tournament. They’re definitely a team that can make things tough for other teams, but they (unfortunately) aren’t going to be contenders this season.
Eric Bledsoe
Reggie Jackson
Paul George
Marcus Morris Sr.
Ivica Zubac
Serge Ibaka
Luke Kennard
Terance Mann
Keon Johnson (R)
Nicolas Batum
Justice Winslow
#10 – Minnesota T-Wolves (42-40)
Yes, I said it. The Minnesota T-Wolves are better than the New Orleans and more than that, they are in the play-in. I think they have done a great job with this roster and their youth pool is good enough to be competent in the NBA. The Minnesota T-Wolves are the worst franchise in NBA history, but I think they’re a playoff-caliber team in 2022.
The core is filled with talent. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the best scoring centers in the league. Yes, I know defense isn’t his thing. But if he can stay healthy, he brings you elite three-level scoring with great efficiency. He’s one of the best centers in the league and the best player on this team, by far.
D’Angelo Russell is another borderline All-Star player when healthy. This is a big year for Russell because he hasn’t done much in his tenure with Minnesota and he’s got just two years left on his contract. I think Russell is great, he just has to try and stay healthy.
Under Chris Finch, Anthony Edwards was an elite scorer in the 2nd half of 2021. He’s an elite scoring talent and he’s going to improve a lot in year 2. Expect more consistent play, better shot selection, and an improvement defensively. Edwards and Malik Beasley are two excellent scorers as the core of Towns-Russell-Edwards-Beasley is an elite offensive foursome that can do some real damage.
The help around them is solid. Naz Reid is a great backup option behind Towns who can start if need be. Patrick Beverley was a great veteran add for the bench, as he brings some much-needed toughness and defense. Josh Okogie is a solid defender. Taurean Prince is a solid shooting wing. Jaden McDaniels and Jarred Vanderbilt are too great up-and-coming young wing players.
The T-Wolves are on the rise. I like their core and I like their fit much better than that of New Orleans. Chris Finch seems to be a good coach, so I’m all-in on the T-Wolves in 2022. Let’s hope this doesn’t blow up in my face.
D’Angelo Russell
Anthony Edwards
Jaden McDaniels
Jarred Vanderbilt
Karl-Anthony Towns
Taurean Prince
Malik Beasley
Patrick Beverley
Naz Reid
Jaylen Nowell
Nathan Knight
#11 – New Orleans Pelicans (40-42)
Yes, I said it. The New Orleans Pelicans are not making the playoffs for the 2nd straight season. While they did make some progress in their rebuild, it’s not enough. The shooting and spacing is still a problem and this isn’t really a playoff team. Of course, Zion and Brandon Ingram are great, but I’m not sold on the help around them.
For starters, I think they had a major downgrade at point guard as they swapped Lonzo Ball for Devonte’ Graham. Lonzo is a great defender, passer, and shooter. The Bulls got a great player. But Graham? Sure he can shoot, but he’s nowhere near the defender due to his lack of size. He also can’t score inside the arc for the same reasons.
Giving him a 4-year contract doesn’t exactly make me think the Pelicans know it’s a downgrade either. I did like the additions of Jonas Valanciunas down low and Virginia wing Trey Murphy III in the draft. I don’t know how Valanciunas and Zion coexist, but I do know that Valanciunas is an upgrade over Steven Adams nonetheless.
The bench is kind of weird. I don’t know who is going to start alongside Devonte’ Graham. Maybe Nickeil Alexander-Walker? But then the defense would be worse. Herbert Jones was a solid 2nd round pickup, but I doubt he starts any games. Kira Lewis Jr? Josh Hart? I don’t know who is starting.
The bench is decent, I guess. Josh Hart is solid, Garrett Temple, Jaxson Hayes, Tomas Satoransky. Willie Green should prove to be an upgrade at coach, but I don’t know, this doesn’t feel that much different to me.
Maybe I’m just dumb (likely), but I just don’t really like this team. I think not having Lonzo Ball will really hurt them and I just think they’ll fall short of the playoffs. I could easily see the T-Wolves and Pelicans being swapped, but for right now, this is the way things are.
Devonte’ Graham
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Brandon Ingram
Zion Williamson
Jonas Valanciunas
Josh Hart
Trey Murphy III (R)
Kira Lewis Jr.
Jaxson Hayes
Tomas Satoransky
Garrett Temple
#12 – Sacramento Kings (37-45)
It pains me to do this. The Kings have the longest active playoff drought in the NBA and if they miss the playoffs this year? They’ll have the longest playoff drought in NBA history. I think they’ve done a good job adding talent over the past couple of seasons, but they are just missing pieces.
De’Aaron Fox is an All-Star caliber player and the franchise cornerstone. Tyrese Haliburton was the steal of the draft last year. Richuan Holmes is a great anchor down low and he got a 4-year contract this offseason to stay in town. Harrison Barnes is a solid two-way wing as well.
The support around those 4 is solid. While the Kings continually want to trade Buddy Hield, he’s one of the best shooters in the league. Terence Davis is a solid scorer. I love rookie Davion Mitchell and the defense that he brings. But I don’t think this team is near a playoff level yet, for a few reasons.
Number one being Luke Walton. He’s just not a good coach, to put things simply. Secondly, this defense is still awful. Davion Mitchell helps on the perimeter but they are again going to have a swiss cheese defense that just makes things so hard on them to win games.
They need a new coach who can give them an identity. That should have been Dave Joerger before they fired him, but I think Kenny Atkinson would be perfect for this team. Until then, it’s time to break some records, Sacramento!
De’Aaron Fox
Tyrese Haliburton
Buddy Hield
Harrison Barnes
Richuan Holmes
Marvin Bagley
Davion Mitchell (R)
Terence Davis
Tristan Thompson
Chimezie Metu
What Do Your Western Conference Standings Look Like? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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