Predicting The Winner of the NBA Finals!
It has been 194 days since the NBA season started. Injuries and Covid headlined the season, with 30 regular season games postponed due to Covid. We unfortunately had injuries galore to All-Stars in the NBA during the playoffs. 9 All-Stars missed at least one game with injury in the playoffs, a new “record”. The defending champion LA Lakers lost in the first round and the Big 3 Brooklyn Nets lost in the 2nd round. Young players like Devin Booker and Trae Young took over the playoffs. It was a very, very, very crazy season/postseason to say the least. The best part is, we still aren’t done.
The NBA finals start in a few days between the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns have never won a title and it’s their first time in the Finals since 1993. Chris Paul is leading the Suns and their young core featuring Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton to the promise land, as CP-3 is trying to secure his first ever championship. The Bucks finally broke through in the East, without Giannis for the final 2 games no less. The Bucks haven’t won an NBA title since 1971, so both teams are looking to break long droughts. This series should be a good one, but who’s taking the Larry O’Brien Trophy home? Today I will be giving you that answer, giving you a deep-dive into this series and eventually declaring a winner. Without further ado, let’s get right into my predictions
Phoenix Suns
Sure, you can say that luck was a factor. The Suns didn’t have to face a healthy Lakers, Nuggets, or Clippers team. But all championship runs have some luck involved and there’s no denying that even with the breaks the Suns have had, they deserve to be in the Finals. They are led by Chris Paul, who has been awesome in these playoffs. Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have been spectacular in their first postseasons and the role players have been amazing. Monty Williams coaches masterpiece after masterpiece, as the Suns have been dominant this postseason. They have been so good in this postseason and they cruised through the Western Conference. Now it’s time to get that ring.
Offense
Offensively, the Suns have been an up and down team this postseason, but they certainly have weapons. This is all starts with their elite backcourt, starring Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Paul is the steady hand, the ace in the whole for the young Suns. His playmaking and leadership are his biggest qualities but he is prone to scoring in bunches. He’s best out of the pick and roll and with how the Bucks struggle to guard the pick and roll at times, he could be lethal.
I imagine he’ll be guarded by Jrue Holiday some of the time and maybe even PJ Tucker, but I trust Chris Paul. Devin Booker is more of a concern. Booker is leading the Suns in points this postseason and he has had big games. Game 6 against the Lakers, he closed out Lebron with 47 points. He had a 40 points triple-double against the Clippers in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. He’s not afraid of the moment, but he struggled immensely against Patrick Beverley after Game 1 of the Conference Finals. If I had to guess, PJ Tucker is going to be on him a bit. Can Booker respond to that physical, pressure defense better? We’ll have to see.
Booker is obviously very talented, don’t know if I’ve said that enough. He can score well at all 3 levels and he’s very good in insolation, but he struggled against a physical defender like Patrick Beverley. Can he be better against somebody like PJ Tucker? Only time will tell.
With how the Bucks defend their pick and rolls, Deandre Ayton is going to be a scoring threat once more. Ayton has been so good in these playoffs, shooting 71% from the field and grabbing nearly 12 rebounds per game. He has been very good. He is great in the pick and rolls as a lob threat with Chris Paul. He’s averaging 3.4 offensive rebounds and 3.0 2nd chance points all on his own. Offensively, Ayton is going to be very good again, no reason to believe otherwise.
The role players are going to have to step up for the Suns if they want to win this series. Mikal Bridges shot just 32% from 3 against the Clippers and just seemed off offensively. He’s going to have to hit some outside shots to stretch out the Bucks defense. He’s going to get open looks, he just has to hit them. Same thing applies for Jae Crowder. Crowder was hot and cold in the conference finals, but he had 19 points in the closeout Game 6. If both of those guys can give you some offense, it makes it that much tougher to stop those high screen and rolls.
Off the bench you also have weapons. Cameron Payne has been so good in these playoffs. He’s had to start in place of CP-3 and he’s had his moments. His ability to get to the rim, score, and facilitate make him very valuable. Before missing Game 6 with a non-Covid related illness, Cam Johnson had been playing so well in the conference finals. He was averaging 11 points per game on 70% shooting. In the playoffs overall, he is shooting 15/27 on corner 3’s (56%). Hopefully he’s back for this series, because he can really help the Suns. Dario Saric is also solid and should be usable with Bobby Portis and PJ Tucker being able to play small-ball center.
The key for the Suns is abusing those high screen and rolls with Chris Paul and Devin Booker. The Suns have been generating about 20 points per game on pick and rolls and they have to take advantage of the Bucks drop coverage/switching defense. They need their shooting wings like Crowder, Bridges, and Johnson to hit shots. If Booker gets going, even better. The Suns offense should look pretty good in this series, but they have a great fallback in their defense.
Defense
The Suns defense in the playoffs has been very good. They are 2nd in defensive rating, 1st in opponent FG%, 3rd in opponent 3-PT%, and #7 in opponent points in the paint. They have been very good and that’s where they can take advantage in this series, especially if Giannis doesn’t end up playing.
Their defense is anchored by Deandre Ayton down low. If Giannis doesn’t play, guarding Brook Lopez should be pretty easy, even though Lopez plays in the paint a lot more without Giannis on the floor. If Giannis does play, he’ll likely have to guard Giannis and try and make him a jump-shooter. That’s a tough matchup for Ayton, who is much better served trying to guard Brook Lopez. Pick and roll defense will be key with either Lopez/Giannis. If Ayton can play defense as well he has all postseason long (106 defensive rating in 16 games), the Suns are going to be set.
Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Torrey Craig (who is guaranteed a ring regardless of the series outcome) are going to guard Middleton/Holiday primarily. Middleton is going to be the guy offensively if there’s no Giannis. He’s a very streaky player and the Suns wings just have to force him to take tough shots, contested shots. Just make life tough for him, can’t afford for him to get going.
Jrue Holiday is streaky, so maybe you put a wing on him or maybe it’s Booker or Paul. Booker is the worst defender in your lineup, maybe he just goes on PJ Tucker who simply just stands in the corner. You have Ayton on Lopez, Crowder on Portis, Booker on Tucker, Paul on Holiday, and Bridges on Middleton. Sounds good to me.
The Suns have been a very good 3-PT defense this postseason and the Bucks are awful at shooting the ball. In the first round of the playoffs they shot 33% from 3, which ranked 14th out of 16 teams. In the 2nd round they shot 30% from 3, which ranked 8th out of 8 teams. In the conference finals they shot 31% from 3, which ranked last out of 4 teams.
Just avoid giving guys like Forbes and Middleton open shots. Pat Connaughton? Let him shoot. Jrue Holiday? He’s been shooting just 30% from 3 in these playoffs, so give him some room but he if starts making some, guard him. PJ Tucker, Brook Lopez, Jeff Teague, all of these guys you’re ok with giving open looks. The Bucks have been one of the worst shooting teams in the playoffs and they’ve been the 2nd best paint offense in the playoffs. So just pack and paint and let them shoot.
The Suns defense should hold up if there’s no Giannis. With Giannis, Crowder, Ayton, and Bridges is a decent wall, but Giannis has been a monster in the pick and rolls and I don’t know if Ayton can contain the 2x MVP. But without Giannis? I’m really liking the Suns chances. Pack the paint, let one of the worst playoff shooting teams shoot away. The pick and roll defense will also be key for the Suns, but if they can control Lopez/Giannis in the pick and roll, the Suns will be perfectly fine.
The Suns are a pretty good matchup for the Bucks, healthy or not. Offensively their pick and rolls are a nightmare and if they can shoot somewhat well? It’s so tough to guard them. They have two very good guard players who can get you a bucket and if Devin Booker responds better to physical defense, he’s hard to stop. Defensively, just letting the Bucks shoot 3’s and avoid letting them dominate down low like they have all postseason long. Pick and roll defense again Lopez/Giannis along with their perimeter containment of Khris Middleton will also be key. The Suns are well prepared for this series and they should like their chances.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks finally made the NBA Finals. They were two games away in 2019 before losing 4 straight to the eventual champion Toronto Raptors. They were embarrassed in the bubble but in 2021, they finally broke through. But they might not have their leader in these finals. Giannis missed the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals against the and is likely to miss more time with that hyperextended right knee. Unless he somehow heals a lot faster than is expected with that type of injury, the chances for the Bucks are slim.
Offense
Offensively, they aren’t the same team without Giannis. Giannis brings them so much offense, mainly because of the pressure he puts on the defense. If the Bucks use him right, which they did for a majority of these playoffs, he’s unstoppable. As the roller in pick and rolls, he’s lethal as the roll guy as you can’t build a wall against that. In the post against smaller guys, he’s also very good. He’s so key to their offense, without him they’re completely different.
They had success against the Hawks, but only in spurts. But without Giannis, they have to rely on Khris Middleton even more than they already do. Not the best thing considering he’s one of the streakiest All-Stars in the NBA. They’re going to need Khris Middleton to get going a lot, because they can’t have him have bad games if Giannis is playing. Even if Giannis is playing, they’re going to need Khris Middleton to be their best player on the floor.
Jrue Holiday is a great playmaker but his scoring output needs to be higher if there’s no Giannis. He hasn’t been a good shooter in the playoffs (30% from 3), but he’s going to have to give you 20+ points a night for the Bucks to be successful. They have to use Brook Lopez a lot in pick and rolls, something they did a lot in Game 5 against the Hawks. Lopez has to put pressure on the defense and hopefully he’s not just going to stand on the perimeter. They have to challenge Ayton, maybe get him into some foul trouble.
The shooting has to be better. Normally you wouldn’t say that with the Bucks, who have been one of the most prolific shooting teams these past few seasons. During the regular season, the Bucks ranked #5 in 3-PTM per game and #5 in 3-PT%. Yet they have completely lost their shooting touch in these playoffs. They’ve shot just 31% from 3 during the playoffs and have gone almost strictly to the paint where they’ve averaged more than 50 points per game.
They have to hit at least 10 3’s per game to stretch out the defense. Otherwise it’ll be too easy for the Suns to pack the paint and dare Bucks “shooters” to make shots. Some 3-pointers are going to have to fall to make it a little challenging for the Suns defense. They’ll also need guys like Bobby Portis and the bench to play above their normal level of play.
Without Giannis, the offense is likely going to struggle against the 2nd best playoff defense in Phoenix (the Bucks are #1). They need a lot of offense from Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. They need to use Brook Lopez a lot and hope some 3’s fall. Giannis does so much for their offense and I doubt they’ll find the same amount of success they did against the Hawks than they will against the Suns. There’s a lot of hoping stuff goes right instead of what can actually work offensive if Giannis is there. But if the offense isn’t going, they have to hope their #1 playoff defense comes through.
Defense
The Bucks have had the best defense in the postseason so far. They’re #1 in defensive rating, #3 in opponent FG%, #1 in opponent FTA, and #2 in opponent PPG. They’ve been very good defensively but without Giannis, that defense would be worse. Then of course you have Mike Budenholzer running your team, which is never a good thing.
Similar to the last two series, pick and roll defense is going to be make or break for the Bucks. They were torched by the Hawks when they went to their drop coverage, but when they started to switch every pick and roll, it worked a lot better and the Bucks won the series. They have to switch things up if one thing isn’t working. I hope the Bucks don’t do drop coverage at all, it’s not going to work. The drop coverage only worked against Miami, but that was an outlier as both the Nets and Hawks torched drop coverage. The Suns run a lot of pick and rolls with Booker and Chris Paul, drop coverage isn’t a good idea. Maybe switching will work again, but the Bucks have to find a counter to those high screen and rolls.
Without Giannis, they lose that length down low. Giannis is primarily used as an overhang defender, but he just takes up so much space down low. Bobby Portis isn’t a great defender, he’s decent, but doesn’t have that length that Giannis does (to be far, not many players do). Jrue Holiday and PJ Tucker have to try and make life tough for Paul and Booker. Tucker did a great job on KD in the semi-finals, he has to play the same physical style of defense on Booker, who struggled against that type of defense against Patrick Beverley and the Clippers. Jrue Holiday is a very good defender, he should make life hard for CP-3.
The Bucks have to make the Suns make 3-pointers. The Bucks defense is designed to give up 3’s, but they can’t just allow easy shots out of the pick and rolls. The Suns have shot 37% from 3 during the playoffs, but only on about 30 attempts per game. They don’t shoot a lot of 3’s, but you have to make them beat you from 3 and not from the mid-range. In the playoffs, Devin Booker is shooting 50% from 10-16 feet and Chris Paul is shooting 45% from 16 feet to the 3-PT line. You have to get them away from that mid-range area and make them shoot more 3’s.
But again, without Giannis, the defense becomes much worse. When Giannis is on the court, the offensive rating for opponents is 103.9 (very good). When he’s off the court, an opponent’s offensive rating goes up to 111.1 (average). I don’t like Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez being on the floor at the same time, but that’s how it’s going to have to be, unless you want like Bryn Forbes or Pat Connaughton in the game. The Bucks don’t have a lot of versatility defensively without Giannis and they don’t exactly have a deep bench. They just have to try and shut down those Suns high pick and rolls and make the Suns shoot 3’s, not mid-range shots. The challenge defensively will also be tough for the Bucks.
Series Outlook
This series, believe it or not NBA twitter, should be good. Obviously you want Giannis to be playing, he’s a 2x MVP, but even if he doesn’t this series should be interesting. I have two different predictions for this series, based on the health of Giannis. If Giannis doesn’t play, the Suns should win. Their offense will have an easier time and defensively they don’t have to worry about one of the most dominant players in the game. If Giannis doesn’t play, I have the Suns winning in 6 games.
Without Giannis: Suns Win 4-2
Lets say that Giannis comes back in this series and is able to play most of the series, maybe he misses 1-2 games at the start of the series. That would make the series a lot more even matched and I would like the Bucks with Giannis. It would probably be a 7-game series tossup, but with how good Giannis has been on both sides of the ball this postseason? Hard to say the Bucks wouldn’t win with him on their side.
With Giannis: Bucks Win 4-3
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