Predicting The Winners Of The NBA Play-In Tournament!
Here we are. 146 days have passed since the opening of the NBA season. 30 games were postponed due to Covid, yet the NBA was able to complete all 2,160 games on the schedule. Now we’re at the play-in tournament, the second adaptation of this unique idea. We have teams that weren’t expected to be here and teams that are here when in reality they shouldn’t, for one reason or another. Today I will be giving my predictions for all 6 play-in games, predicting which teams will be making the playoffs and which teams are headed for the lottery.
Eastern Conference
(Disclaimer: No Eastern Conference jokes will be made during the making of this article)
#7 Boston Celtics vs #8 Washington Wizards
Boston Celtics
Offensively, even while getting hit by injuries, the Celtics still have some weapons. This starts with Jayson Tatum. Jayson Tatum has been All-NBA caliber this season and he’s going to have to be excellent for Boston this postseason. Without Brown, the brunt of the load falls on Tatum. The Wizards don’t have anybody who can guard Tatum, so I really like him being aggressive. The Wizards also foul people a lot so Tatum has to get to the rim and be ultra-aggressive. Expect Washington to double him, creating even more opportunities for other guys.
Kemba Walker is the x-factor. Without Jaylen Brown he averages nearly 26 points per game this season. That will have to continue for Boston to win. Walker will be the secondary scorer and he’ll have to work for Boston to make the playoffs. The Wizards don’t exactly have elite perimeter play either. The Celtics need Cardiac Kemba, not Bubble Kemba to go get to the first round.
The Celtics bench is young and weak. With no Brown, you have to have Walker or Tatum on the floor at all times. Maybe you can get by with just Fournier but you definitely need an All-Star on the floor at all times. Guys like Pritchard and Nesmith aren’t creators, they are solid role guys. The bench doesn’t have much shot creation so having at least one guy that can do that will help a lot.
Then you have guys like Fournier and Smart. Fournier has been shooting nearly 60% from 3 in in May. With Tatum generating a lot of attention, Fournier will get open looks. In the month of May, he’s more likely to miss than make. Marcus Smart has missed a lot of time this season, and it’s shown. The Celtics defense has been considerably worse without their engine. If Smart can play in the play-in, he’s being tasked with trying to shut down the Wizards backcourt. They love to get downhill and Smart is their only stopper on the perimeter. If he’s unavailable, it could spell trouble for the Celtics.
Speaking of defense, the Celtics have their hands full. The Wizards ranked #1 in points in the paint after the All-Star Break. They ranked #1 in free throw attempts and #1 in makes. They want to get to the rim. The Celtics have to make the Wizards shoot, where they aren’t nearly as comfortable. Closing off driving lanes and having guys like Robert Williams roam the paint, clogging things up.
Defense is going to be tough for Boston but they have advantages. Boston is solid at forcing turnovers and Washington is sloppy. They foul teams more than anybody else in the league like we talked about and they also turn the ball over at pretty high rates. Boston has to force turnovers and take advantage of that. The Wizards aren’t great at collecting the defensive rebound. 2nd chance points is another way for Boston to gain an advantage.
The Celtics will likely have to use bigger lineups in this game. The Wizards are a bully ball type team that likes to go down low. Guys like Payton Prichard and Kemba Walker will be targeted. So you have to mask that my playing bigger. Nesmith, Parker, Thompson, Rob Williams, Grant Williams, and Tatum all offer size. Definitely wouldn’t advise going small. Always have length on that floor.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards went 17-6 to end the year as they rapidly climbed the standings to have a shot at the playoffs. Here’s how they did that.
Obviously the easy answer is so say Russell Westbrook had 24 triple-doubles in 29 games. And yes, that is a reason for the Wizards success. But it’s more of a fundamental change. The Wizards shot less 3’s and pounded things down low, leading the league in points in the paint post All-Star break. The Wizards are going to get downhill. Westbrook is relentless, Beal loves getting to the rim and is a great all-around scorer. Those two I trust. The others aren’t exactly great and that worries me.
The Wizards led the league in isolations this season, with 1,731 on the year. Westbrook and Beal combined for 1,327 (78%) of them. The Wizards are so reliant on their stars, it’s almost more of a flaw than it is a strength. To win this game and get through the play-in the Wizards need the others to step up. But that may be a problem.
Robin Lopez might be their third most consistent offensive guy. Other than him, you don’t know what you’re getting. Hachimura and Bertans are incredibly inconsistent. Ish Smith is solid, but not a natural scorer. Hutchison and Gafford aren’t creators. To win the Wizards need to rely on their stars but they aren’t winning unless their role players step up.
Defensively the Wizards are inconsistent. They don’t exactly have great individual defenders. Down low Gafford is good but Lopez and Len are not. They don’t have anybody to guard Tatum and that is a problem. They will likely have to double him and that will lead to even more problems. The Wizards draw fouls better than anybody but they also foul people more than anybody. The Wizards also turn the ball over a lot. These aren’t things that help you in a playoff game and the Celtics can certainly take advantage of this.
Matchup Outlook
These teams are very similar. Sub role-players, inconsistent defense, star reliance. But I am picking Boston to win this game. They have the best player in the series in my opinion and Kemba Walker is great when JB isn’t playing. Fournier has been lights out this month and if Marcus Smart is playing, a big addition to the defense. The Wizards are even more reliant on their stars but they are sloppy in multiple areas of the game and Boston can take advantage of that. This game will be very close but I do think Boston will win.
Boston Wins, Becomes 7th Seed, Takes On Brooklyn (aka Death Sentence)
Washington Gets One More Chance For Postseason
#9 – Indiana Pacers vs #10 – Charlotte Hornets
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers came into the season with high hopes but injuries derailed that. TJ Warren played just 4 games this year before a season ending foot injury. Malcolm Brogdon has missed all of May, Caris Levert had cancer and missed time, Sabonis missed some games, and now their best defender, Myles Turner, is likely done for the year. Oh yeah, the coach is a jerk too. Nate McMillan sounds nice right about now.
While the Pacers have been poor this season and have been hit hard with injuries, they are still solid. They have one of the best offenses in the leagues, with them ranking #2 in assists and #1 in passes made. Domantas Sabonis is their engine offensively. He’s averaging a triple-double in May and will have to continue to do so. Caris Levert has had a bigger scoring haul with no Brogdon and they’ll also need him to score.
The support is decent with the likes of Justin Holiday, TJ McConnell, and Doug McDermott. The Pacers are decent but I don’t know if they can keep up with Charlotte’s offense is they don’t have Brogdon. Brogdon is very efficient and can help run the offense. He’s best used off ball and the Sabonis/Brogdon pick and rolls have been great this season. The Pacers are good offensively, not so much defensively.
Similar to Utah, Myles Turner held the entire defense up with his inside presence. He was the league’s best shot blocker but now with him out with injury, Sabonis isn’t exactly great down there. While he’s physical on offense, Indiana gets better defensively when he’s off the floor. They don’t have much on the perimeter besides McConnell and if they don’t have Brogdon, I don’t know how they can stop the Hornets guard attack.
The Pacers defense will be the key for them. Luckily they are running into perhaps the perfect team, the Hornets.
Charlotte Hornets
The Pacers are the fundamental team that passes the ball around a lot. The Hornets are young, fun, and sexy new team in town. They have a lot of fun players to watch but I don’t know if that will translate to a lot on the court.
In the last 15 games of the year, the Hornets offense was bottom 10 in the league. Yes injuries had something to do with that, but they’ll need scoring from their main guys. Terry Rozier is very hot and cold, but when he has things going, he’s dangerous. Same goes for Devonte Graham and Malik Monk, guys who can be very good but they can also shoot you out of games. PJ Washington is another very inconsistent guy.
Then there’s star rookie Lamelo Ball. Ball makes this team tick and is different than the rest of the Hornets guards because he’s a pass. But Ball is facing his first big test in the league. It’s win or go home. Is he up for the task? We’ll just have to wait and see.
Offensively the Hornets have the weapons and Indiana’s defense isn’t exactly great without Myles Turner down low. So scoring shouldn’t really be a problem even if all the players on their team are streaky. The Pacers allowed the most paint points over the last 15 games of the year. The scoring shouldn’t be too much of a problem, even if Charlotte is inexperienced. Defense becomes the key for the young Hornets.
The Hornets defense was meh all year and in the last 15 games of the year, it was 19th. Nothing great, nothing too bad. But they’re going to have to stop Indiana. Domantas Sabonis is going to be a problem. He averaged a triple-double down while feasting in the paint. The Hornets will have to trust that Zeller and Biyombo can hold him down there but that’s a very big ask.
I don’t know if guys like Rozier or Ball can stay with a guy like Levert on the perimeter. The Hornets don’t have a lot of good guard defenders. Most of their guards are strictly offensive guys. If Malcolm Brogdon does play, it one furthers the problem they have on the perimeter. I don’t know if the Hornets can stop Indiana and vice versa.
Matchup Outlook
This game is going to be a shootout as both teams aren’t strong defensively. The Hornets are inexperience, so how much of a role will that play in this game? I have no doubt the Hornets can play, but can they make plays when things matter the most. Indiana is more experienced and they have the best player in the series. This will be another toss up but I am going with Indiana in this one.
Indiana Wins, Takes On Washington For 8th Seed
Charlotte Eliminated, Headed For the Lottery
#8 Washington Wizards vs #9 Indiana Pacers
If this was the game to decide the 8th seed, give me Washington. The Wizards might be reliant on their stars so much so it’s a flaw, but Beal and Westbrook can come up big. The Wizards have still been one of the best teams in the league despite their flaws and Indiana’s paint defense is poor, meaning that the Wizards can get right where they want to with ease. I would take Washington if this was the matchup for the #8 seed in the East.
Washington Wins, Becomes 8th Seed, Takes on Philly
Indiana Eliminated, Headed For The Lottery
Western Conference
(Let’s be honest, this is the real conference. One Eastern Conference joke is allowed)
#7 LA Lakers vs #8 Golden State Warriors
LA Lakers
It’s still kind of funny that they are in this game, but with that being said it’s not like they’re going to lose. While Lebron may be dealing with injuries, him being on the floor at any capacity is still a plus for the Lakers. With that being said, Anthony Davis has to turn things up like he did last year. Davis has been meh since his return from injury, with some flashes of what he was doing last year. Schroder is also back to LA is at full strength.
Lebron is Lebron and AD is likely going to be guarded by Wiggins or Draymond. He has to win that matchup. He’s certainly capable of it, he just has to win it. For Schroder, I couldn’t care less about offense. You’re going to have to chase Steph Curry around. Might as well put all your effort there. But there are some offensive things that scare me for LA.
Other than their big 3, where’s the scoring. Everybody else is kind of streaky and they might be worse because they’re re-adjusting how to play with Lebron, AD, and Schroder. Can guys like KCP, Kuzma, and THT step up and score? They’ll have to. Then there’s the Lakers center problem. It boils down to this, Andre Drummond and Montrezl Harrell are both the same player, just different sizes. Both struggle defensively and Marc Gasol is their best option. But Marc Gasol is old so I would honestly put AD at center. I don’t trust Drummond or Harrell at all.
The Lakers shooting will also have to be somewhat existent. You’re playing the Warriors, one of the best shooting teams in the league. Forget Curry, guys like Poole and Wiggins have been shooting well lately. The Lakers have to hit some 3’s, not the same amount of 3’s, but some 3’s just to that the Warriors aren’t hitting 9-10 more 3’s than LA.
Offense is where my worry is. The Warriors have a great defense and LA is still working out how to play with their stars. Offense might be sluggish. However on defense, I trust them.
Even when they were missing AD, Lebron, and Schroder, the Lakers were still one of the best defenses in the league. Now they have those 3 back and they face an immense challenge. But in the bubble, they always had an answer. They are going to have to harass Curry, get the ball out of his hands. But the Warriors are no chumps. I expect LA to leave Draymond wide open so they’re going to do handoffs to make Draymond be guarded. The Lakers have to be good at contesting Curry but also not forgetting about guys just simply cutting and getting easy dunks while you stare at Curry.
Like I said earlier, AD at center has to be the answer. Marc Gasol is decent but his foot speed is not what it was when he was a DPOY. AD at center can give the Warriors problem. He is very lengthy and has quick feet to contest Curry coming off those handoffs and screens. He can also get back quickly to protect the paint. I definitely think they have to use AD at center to try and slow down the Warriors.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Lakers fare against the Warriors. It’s a very good test for them defensively, seeing how they’ll do against the Suns and Jazz’s off the world. But this is a matchup that is pretty good for the Lakers. They definitely have the talent advantage, they just have to play like they did last year in the bubble, with some urgency.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have been playing great to end the year, ending the year winning 8 of their last 9 games. Steph Curry is the reason for their success and he’s going to have to do it again. The Lakers are going to send all sorts of pressure, as they have guys like KCP, AD, Schroder, all guys that will be guarding Curry. But Curry has been great all-year and he can do it again. But his leverage is going to be (somehow) even higher than it already was. Now the Warriors have to use that their advantage.
If Curry gets doubled, the ball is going to Draymond Green, the point forward. Now like most people would, Draymond isn’t going to be guarded. So Draymond, attack the rim if you’re open. Do that a couple times just to make the defense honest. Don’t just pass, that becomes way too predictable. But a way to kind of make LA guard Draymond is do handoffs with Steph. You’ve seen Draymond give the ball to Steph or fake the handoff for an easy score.
Off-ball movement is also going to be key. When Draymond has the ball, everybody is looking at Steph. So other guys will be able to cut and move and rotate freely. Draymond is going to find you if you get open. So just hit the shot. Jordan Poole is shooting 36% from 3 in May. Andrew Wiggins is shooting 39% from 3. Kent Bazemore is shooting 35% from 3. Those guys are going to have to hit open 3’s.
The Warriors x-factor is Wiggins. Like I said, he’s going to get open looks because of all that Steph does. I love the way that Wiggins was playing to end the year, in control. He was taking smart shots and picking and choosing when to score. I would say that he has to be aggressive when Curry isn’t on the floor, but if he plays like he has been in the month of May, the Warriors have a shot.
Defensively the Warriors find their main strength. The Warriors have been one of the best defenses in the league led by Draymond Green. The Lakers really only have 3 guys you’re worried about. Obviously, Lebron. There’s not a lot of defenses for Lebron outside of putting Jason Terry on him, but if the Warriors can clog the paint with Looney down low and Wiggins is able to stay in front of him for the most part, you did you job.
AD is a matchup nightmare for anybody. Expect lots of Draymond and maybe some Wiggins or Looney thrown in there. The Warriors have to be physical with AD and kind of push him out from the block and closer to the perimeter. Making him work on defense and not just sitting in the paint will also help.
Schroder isn’t exactly a scorer but he’s very fast and I expect him run around to try and make Curry a little tired. The bench of LA doesn’t strike fear to me. The Warriors just have to make sure to contest their 3’s. The Lakers don’t make 3’s and they are one of the worst shooting teams in the league, but if you give them too many looks, they are going to hit them eventually. This is going to be an incredibly tough matchup for the Warriors.
Matchup Outlook
I think I keep coming back to the Lakers being too much. I doubt this game is a blowout, but the Lakers are healthy, at home, I have to imagine they’re winning. Lebron and AD, even if not 100% healthy, are nightmares. The Lakers defense is so good and I imagine they’re going to do a good job on Curry. If not, is just a Curry explosion even enough? The Warriors don’t have the bodies to guard AD or Lebron and I don’t know if just Curry is enough to win a game. This will be such an interesting game, but give me LA.
Lakers Win, Become 7th Seed, Take on Phoenix First Round
Warriors Lose, Get One More Chance For Playoffs
#9 Memphis Grizzlies vs #10 San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are very familiar with the play-in. They barely missed the playoffs last year after having a strong grip on the 8th seed entering the bubble. This year they lost the last game of the year and instead of having to win one game to make the playoffs, they have to win two. Tough break, but Memphis is very good.
They are one of the most balanced teams in the league. They have 7 guys in double digits and 3 guys over 17 points in the game. They have guys who can score. Ja Morant is mostly a passer but when he can get his jumpshot going, he’s dangerous. Dillon Brooks is a defensive hound who is sometimes out of control, but like Morant is he gets shots to fall he’s dangerous.
Jonas Valanciunas is a force down low, getting easy looks at the rim and gobbling up rebounds like candy. Anderson and Brandon Clarke are solid and if Grayson Allen can play in the play-in, he’s been having a career year shooting wise. Jaren Jackson Jr. has still been trying to work his way back from injury but the Grizzlies have guys who can score. Their problem is shooting.
The Grizzlies ranked 22nd in 3-PT attempts after the All-Star break and 22nd in makes in that same span. The Grizzlies don’t make a lot of 3’s and, like you saw in the Warriors game, guys like Steph Curry can just out shoot them. The Grizzlies thrive on points off turnovers (3rd), 2nd chance points (1st), and get out in transition (1st). They are also the best paint scoring team. The Spurs aren’t a great paint defense, so Memphis can score down low. The Spurs don’t turn the ball over much but they aren’t a great rebounding team. The Grizzlies can take advantage of that.
While the offense is shaky and sometimes flat, the Grizzlies always have a fallback, their defense.
Memphis is a young team, with an average age of 24, you don’t expect them to be that good defensively. But they are. Memphis had the #7 defense in the league this season as they are good fundamentally thanks to head coach Taylor Jenkins. The Grizzlies led the league in steals and were good at defending the interior. They do a pretty good job avoid fouls. 3-PT defense is solid but a little shaky.
The key for Memphis is forcing turnovers and taking advantage of that. The Spurs were #2 in the league in turnovers, as they don’t turn the ball over often. Memphis is 3rd in points off turnovers, as they thrive when they force turnovers. They’re going to have to force turnovers to win this game. That’ll be extremely important. The Spurs have excellent guard play. Brooks should pester DeRozan but I don’t know about Morant on Dejounte Murray. The Grizzlies have a lot of solid defenders off their bench like Xavier Tillman down low, rookie Desmond Bane, and De’Anthony Melton are also solid. The Grizzlies definitely have a good matchup with the Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs and Grizzlies are very similar, even if the Spurs are a veteran team and the Grizzlies are young. The Spurs struggled to end the year as they couldn’t figure things out. I doubt they make the playoffs even if they somehow win this game.
The Grizzlies are essentially an upgraded version of the Spurs. The Spurs were the 19th best offense in the league and the 17th best defense. The Grizzlies ranked higher than them in both of those. The Spurs averaged less points per game, shot worse from the field, made less 3’s, and rebounded worse than Memphis. This isn’t going to go well.
The Spurs ranked last in the league in 3’s made. I said that the Grizzlies don’t make many 3’s, but the Spurs were even worse. The Spurs don’t crash the glass well and Memphis is a great 2nd chance team. The Spurs aren’t exactly going to win that battle. The Spurs do have the experience/coaching win which is cool, but I doubt it fixes anything. The Spurs are one of the best teams at not turning the ball over, but if they do turn the ball over, Memphis is taking advantage. I just don’t see how the Spurs win this game.
Matchup Outlook
I don’t see how the Spurs will win this game. Memphis has the better team and they are better at almost every area of the game. The Spurs definitely need a rebuild because there is a low, low ceiling to what they are doing. The Grizzlies should win this game and I would be absolutely shocked if the outcome was any different.
Grizzlies Win, Take On Warriors For 8th Seed (Again)
Spurs Headed For Lottery
#8 Golden State Warriors vs #9 Memphis Grizzlies
I will take the Warriors here. I see this potential game going a lot like the last game of the year. Memphis tries to guard Steph Curry and then realizes you can’t do that, he scores a lot, and the Warriors win.
Warriors Get #8 Seed, Take On Utah In First Round
Grizzlies Eliminated From Playoffs
So there you have it, my play-in bracket. I have the Celtics as the #7 seed in the East and Washington as the #8 seed. I have the Lakers getting the 7th seed in the West and Golden State getting the 8th seed. These games are all going to be pretty close and they will be very interesting. This should be a lot of fun.
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