Predicting the Winners of the NBA Play-In Tournament
The Play-In Tournament gives us a chance for chaos before the playoffs even begin. As the 7-10 seeds duke it out, let’s predict the winners.
I’m not going to lie, I’m not a huge fan of the Play-In Tournament anymore. While the games throughout the next few days will hopefully be exciting, the tournament itself rewards mediocrity. I get that the NBA wants to discourage tanking, but if teams really want to, not even this tournament can stop them (hi there, Dallas).
In any event, we still have four playoff seeds up for grabs in both conferences. Who’s in and who’s out? That’s what I’m trying to figure out.
(7) Los Angeles Lakers vs (8) Minnesota Timberwolves
The winner of this game gets the 7th seed in the Western Conference and a date with the Memphis Grizzlies. Both of these teams have had eventful, up-and-down seasons that led them to this point. The Lakers started 2-10, and Minnesota had one of the most eventful game 82s…ever.
On March 31st, these two teams played at full strength in Minnesota. It was a pivotal game that the Lakers won — a critical come-from-behind victory that helped them earn homecourt advantage in this game. LA has been excellent defensively after the All-Star break, and now they’re finally healthy. This is the best basketball the Lakers have played all season long, and they’re the favorites in this game for a few reasons.
For one, Anthony Davis is going to have a field day. Rudy Gobert got a one-game suspension for throwing a punch at Kyle Anderson during Minnesota’s final game against New Orleans. Davis scored 38 points on March 31st with Gobert playing, and now he’ll be guarded by Karl-Anthony Towns or Nathan Knight.
{Barbeque Chicken Noises}
On top of that, Jalen McDaniels broke his hand after punching a wall in frustration. There goes Lebron James’ primary defender, too. Minnesota is walking into this game with a limp while the Lakers are at full strength. Still, let’s not discredit this resilient Timberwolves team that knows a thing or two about adversity.
For one, Anthony Edwards is playing. As long as he’s out there, the Timberwolves stand a chance. Edwards was instrumental in rallying the troops and galvanizing Minnesota to come back and beat New Orleans. He loves the big moment, and I’m sure he’ll do his best to make things interesting.
Edwards has struggled against the Lakers this season, averaging just 19.7 points with more turnovers than assists. He’ll have to be on his game for the T-Wolves to stand a chance.
Minnesota had more space to operate after Gobert was sent home. They looked more lively. This season, lineups that feature Towns and Edwards on the floor with Gobert on the bench have a 119.5 offensive rating, according to cleaning the glass. Where Gobert will be missed, however, is in the rebounding and defense department. The Timberwolves allow opponents to have a 30.2% offensive rebound rate when Rudy isn’t on the floor, and they shoot 67% at the rim.
Overwhelmed is the best way to describe Minnesota right now. Without three rotation players on the road against a more experienced Lakers team is a tough assignment for anybody. Los Angeles is the healthier team with the two best players in this game. That’s a good formula to win, and I think they’ll do just that.
Winner: Los Angeles Lakers (Will Play Memphis in the First Round)
(9) New Orleans Pelicans vs (10) OKC Thunder
This game should be very fun to watch. The do-or-die game in the West features two of the most exciting teams in the league. Oklahoma City has been a scrappy underdog, and the Pelicans have had a roller coaster of a season. The Brandon Ingram vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander matchup will be scintillating.
The Pelicans are thankful that they’re at home for this contest. They went 27-14 when playing at the Smoothie King Center this season. Meanwhile, the Thunder went just 16-25 on the road. The Pels are also the much more experienced team in this game.
Still, you have to wonder how New Orleans will respond in this game. They blew their final game against Minnesota and now must win two games (like they did last year) to make the playoffs. The pressure is most certainly on New Orleans to take care of business. Not to mention, they’re going to be without Zion Williamson, their best player.
Meanwhile, there is absolutely no pressure on the Thunder to win this game. They’ve had a great season, but that came with almost zero expectations. Nobody expected them to be in this game, and they’re here to play spoiler. This will be a great learning experience for most of this roster.
OKC’s chances can be best summed up by one man: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. When SGA gets going, he’s one of the most unstoppable players in the game. OKC’s spread-out offense thrives on getting downhill and attacking opposing defenses.
Shai averaged 33.5 points (and 12.3 FTA) against New Orleans this season. If he has a similar performance, OKC stands a chance. The biggest concern for the Thunder in this game will be their lack of size. Josh Giddey (6’8″) leads this team in rebounds, and they’re going up against Jonas Valanciunas, one of the more imposing centers in the league.
But, I have a feeling about this Thunder team. While they are inexperienced and small, they’re scrappy. They fly around the court defensively, causing chaos. I think they’re going to have no nerves in this game while New Orleans has a lot more at stake. This game will be close, and down the stretch, the Thunder have the best player on the floor. That’ll be enough for them to scrap out a win.
Winner: Oklahoma City Thunder
(8) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (10) OKC Thunder
The Timberwolves won three out of the four times these two teams met in the regular season. Even though they’re going to be short-handed, Minnesota will be at home for this game. To reiterate, the Thunder struggle on the road. Even though Minnesota isn’t great at home (22-19), they have the clear advantage in this game.
I imagine that Rudy Gobert would return from suspension in a game that would decide the fate of the team’s season. The organization would be admitting they made a mistake if they kept Gobert out for a second consecutive game.
In that case, I think the Timberwolves will edge out a win. Even though SGA scored 30+ points in every game he played against Minnesota, I don’t know if the Thunder have enough to beat Minnesota.
Winner: Minnesota Timberwolves (Will Play Denver in the First Round)
(7) Miami Heat vs (8) Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks drew the short end of the stick with their play-in tournament matchup. For the past three-ish months, they’ve been within one game of 0.500. They finished the season with a 41-41 record, so splitting their two play-in tournament games seems like an easy task. If they continue their trend of being average, they’ll make the playoffs!
However, Atlanta is playing a Miami team that has their number. The Heat won three out of their four matchups in the regular season. Last postseason, the Heat steamrolled the Hawks 4-1 in the first round, too. Over the past two seasons, the Hawks have a 1-6 in Miami. Their one win came when Jimmy Butler was sitting out. Yikes.
While the Heat haven’t been spectacular, they’re built for the playoffs. The trio of Butler, Bam, and Herro provides the scoring. There’s enough defense and toughness scattered throughout the roster to make life miserable for the Hawks. Erik Spoelstra will harass Trae Young and force other guys to create. Atlanta is still trying to adjust to Quin Snyder, but those changes will likely only take effect next training camp, not during the most important game of the season.
Even though these teams are close record-wise, they feel eons apart. The rift between Trae Young and the Hawks is apparent. Atlanta doesn’t play much defense, and I think they’ll again struggle in this game. That’s a damning statement after the Dejounte trade this offseason.
For any Celtics fans watching at home, you’re praying Atlanta pulls off a miracle and wins this game. But, it looks like we’re getting a conference finals rematch in the first round.
Winner: Miami Heat (Will Play Boston In The First Round)
(9) Toronto Raptors vs (10) Chicago Bulls
The Toronto Raptors went 3-3 in their final six games. Even after trading for Jakob Poeltl at the deadline, they’re not good enough to compete with the East’s upper echelon. Of their three losses, they lost to the 76ers on the road and twice to Boston. Their wins came against the Hornets (2x) and a Bucks team resting their starters.
Regardless, the Raptors’ most important game of the season will be at home. The Raptors went 27-14 at Scotiabank Arena this year, the fifth-best home record in the Eastern Conference, behind only the conference’s top-four seeds. Two of those 27 home wins came against the Bulls, who are walking into the lion’s den, so to speak.
It wasn’t a very fun season for the Bulls. Even with good production from DeRozan and Lavine, the Bulls struggled on offense without Lonzo Ball. They’ve turned into a team with a feisty defense (Beverley and Caruso each got a steal while I was writing this), but a mediocre offense.
Chicago turned the ball over 19 times per game in their matchups with the Raptors. Toronto’s length and physicality really bothered them, leading to easy points for the Raptors. Toronto is another team with a poor halfcourt offense (25th halfcourt offense in the NBA), so those easy transitions will be the difference in this game.
If Lavine and DeRozan are able to score in isolation, then the Bulls have a chance. On paper, those two are the best scorers on the floor in this matchup. But, if they falter, then the Bulls will, too. Not even Patrick Beverley acting like his life is on the line can help this “my turn, your turn” offense.
Both of these teams are depressing and lifeless. Neither of them are particularly deep or good. If you ever wanted an argument for why the Play-In Tournament shouldn’t exist, just show them this game. Unless I’m missing something, I don’t think anything interesting is going to happen. We’ll just give the Raptors the win here.
Winner: Toronto Raptors
(8) Atlanta Hawks vs (9) Toronto Raptors
Oh god, another depressing game? Color me surprised. The Hawks won the season series 2-1 against Toronto. Toronto’s one win was a 30-point shellacking back in October. Like the Heat, the Raptors are another tough, physical team that the Hawks want to avoid.
Atlanta averaged 25.0 free throw attempts in their games against the Raptors, a big reason for their success. If the refs let some of the ticky-tack fouls go, Toronto’s maulers like OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes will be given free rein on Atlanta’s backcourt.
However, Toronto was a pitiful road team this season. While they were dominant at home (+4.5 net rating), they went just 14-27 on the road (-1.6 net rating). Atlanta, on the other hand, went 24-17 at home.
If Atlanta’s backcourt comes to play and somebody like Hunter or Bogdanovic steps up, advantage Atlanta. Toronto will try and make this a grinding, physical showdown. The most important thing to watch in this game is turnovers. Toronto needs easy opportunities to avoid running their half-court offense. If the Hawks don’t give them those opportunities, that’s a massive win.
Atlanta’s half-court defense isn’t great (22nd), but I imagine it will get the job done. Trae Young’s lack of size may be a problem, but I don’t think that will be enough to swing the game in Toronto’s favor.
I trust Young and Murray way more than anybody Toronto relies upon for offense. Toronto needs a lot more to go right for them to win this game than Atlanta does, and that’s why I think the Hawks will win this game. They get the right to swept by the Bucks in the first round, not Toronto.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks (Will Play Milwaukee in the First Round)
What do you think about my predictions for the Play-In Tournament? Leave a comment down below!
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