Predicting Where Major Free Agents Will Land (Ayton, Brunson, more!)
With the offseason on the horizon, money is on most teams’ minds. So, where will the major free agents land? Here are my predictions.
The most hectic part of the NBA schedule is approaching. For a couple of weeks, billions of dollars will be spent by teams across the league. Some teams will be making the mistakes of a lifetime, while others will strike gold. Predicting where free agents will land isn’t an exact science, either. Today, I will try my best at doing so.
Zach Lavine
Over the past two seasons, Zach Lavine has turned himself into one of the best scorers in the league. The smooth shooting guard is going to demand max money this offseason. Surprisingly, that money may not come from the Bulls.
Or so we thought. A month ago, it looked like Lavine was primed to leave. Now, new reports suggest that he’s going to re-sign. That’s no fun. I was hoping Lavine would leave, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Pain.
Projected Contract: 5 years / $206 million ($41.2 million AAV)
Jalen Brunson
Jalen Brunson is Dallas’ #1 priority this summer. The 2018 second-round pick has been the only Doncic-era draft pick to pan out. Weeps of Josh Green.
Brunson broke onto the scene in 2022, becoming Dallas’ second best player in the process. Brunson represents the ideal Luka counterpart. Someone who can score, pass, and handle the ball-handling duties.
He’s a stop-gap for Dallas. He gives Luka chances to rest – a rarity thus far in his career. But Brunson wasn’t a first-round pick. That means he’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, so re-signing him won’t be easy.
I’m sure Brunson wants to stay in Dallas, but he may be the hottest commodity of the offseason. The list of teams who need him is large;
New York Knicks
Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
San Antonio Spurs
With Lavine off the board, I can’t imagine the Mavericks letting Brunson go. Keeping Luka happy remains a task, even if he re-signed for the future. Brunson isn’t as good as Lavine, but he’s the second-best player in Dallas. Kind of seems like you would want to keep that guy around.
Dallas Mavericks (Re-Sign)
Projected Contract: 4 years / $90 million ($22.5 million AAV)
Deandre Ayton
Last year, I talked about how the Suns were making a big mistake by not re-signing Deandre Ayton. My thoughts on this matter haven’t changed. The Suns don’t want to give Ayton, their 23-year-old former #1 overall pick, a max contract.
Objectively, Deandre Ayton isn’t worth $30+ million a year. I get that. But that’s not the point. Ayton is the starting center for a team that’s won 115 games over the past two seasons. Again, he’s 23-years-old. Debate about his impact all you want. Ayton is valuable.
I don’t think there’s a reality where Ayton returns to Phoenix. We’re going to see him involved in a sign-and-trade. Then, Ayton will get the money he rightfully deserves. Screw you, Phoenix.
Land Spots for Ayton
Indiana Pacers
Detroit Pistons
San Antonio Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder
Portland Trail Blazers
Charlotte Hornets
All of those places would be fine by me, especially Portland. (I’m not biased, I swear). In other news, I think I know just where to send Ayton to;
Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton should have been a Sun back in 2020, but Phoenix passed on him for Jalen Smith. Now, Ayton gets to fulfill one of the better what-if storylines from the past few seasons. Speaking of Jalen Smith, he’s also on this team. Small world.
Projected Contract: Four years / $130 million ($32.5 million AAV)
Miles Bridges
Miles Bridges becoming one of the best role players in the league was not on my 2022 bingo sheet. Bridges ended 2021 on a high note, and he continued that play this season. His improved shooting and ball-handling let him to a career season.
Bridges is a bruising forward that loves to get downhill. If he continues to improve defensively, his stock will only go higher. If there were ever a year to show your best, it would be this past season. Now heading into restricted free agency, Miles will have numerous offers on the table.
He may not get max money, but he’ll get something pretty close. There’s a lot of teams that I could see going after him;
Indiana Pacers
San Antonio Spurs
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic
A 24-year old who makes bad music is sure to draw interest on the market. However, it’s hard to see Bridges leaving Charlotte. I think that they like him too much to see him walk. And, at the very most, he’ll get offered $22-ish million a year. I think Charlotte is fine with that price.
Charlotte (Re-Sign)
Projected Contract: 4 years / $86 million ($21.5 million AAV)
Collin Sexton
Welcome to Collin Sexton Island. It’s been 10 years since we’ve accepted visitors. The dinosaurs are roaming free, so enter at your own risk. Watch out for the majestic Mobleysourus and the vicious Tyrannosaurus Garland!
All jokes aside, Collin Sexton’s stock has fallen off of a cliff. His lack of defense and playmaking were already turn-offs for me. His knee injury that sidelined him for most of the season isn’t helping matters, either.
Darius Garland is the new kid on the block. While the Cavs need Sexton’s shot-creating, they’re not going to overpay for him. They proved they can win without him, so don’t expect the Cavs to splurge much. The same can be said for most teams around the league.
Here’s my best guess at who will offer on the controversial shooting guard;
New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers
Detroit Pistons
Yeah….that’s not great. It’s hard to imagine Sexton getting big money this offseason. The Cavs were better without him last season. That being said, they need his shot-creation. Darius Garland can’t do everything. So…happy reunion? Kind of?
Cleveland (Re-Sign)
Projected Contract: 3 years / $50 million ($16.6 million AAV)
Role Players
As we’re currently seeing in the NBA Finals, role players matter. Every year, there’s always a mid-level signing that ends up being one of the biggest steals of the offseason. Securing a bench is crucial to success in the NBA.
While this offseason doesn’t house too many stars, there are plenty of above average role players available. Let’s see where they’re going to land.
Tyus Jones
Tyus Jones is the quintessential NBA point guard. He can shoot, pass, handle, and defend. Jones is immune to turnovers. For his career, he dishes out 3.8 assists for every one turnover. That’s insane efficiency, and something that every team needs.
The Memphis Grizzlies aren’t going to be the only team after Jones this offseason. At just 26 years old, he’s going to be coveted;
New York Knicks
Dallas Mavericks
Cleveland Cavaliers
Miami Heat
San Antonio Spurs
As much as I would love to see Memphis hold onto Jones, I don’t think it’ll happen. Jones has expressed a desire to be a starting point guard. The Grizzlies went 19-4 this past season when Jones was starting. So, why would he want to stay with Memphis if it meant playing second fiddle to Morant.
That may be selfish, but that’s the mindset of Jones, and it should be. What’s best for him is going elsewhere. Right now, my prediction is;
Cleveland Cavaliers
Forget Sexland. A backcourt of Jones and Darius Garland would be the perfect thing for a team on the rise.
Projected Contract: 4 years / $65 million ($16.25 million AAV)
Kyle Anderson
Another key Memphis free agent this offseason is Kyle Anderson. The veteran forward is the ideal utility player in the modern NBA. Anderson can handle, pass, and defend at a high level. His lack of a jumpshot is concerning, but he’s certainly valuable.
Anderson was reportedly available during the trade deadline, which makes me think he’s not going to be around long-term. So, where will Slow-mo land?
Indiana Pacers
Atlanta Hawks
Philadelphia 76ers
Minnesota Timberwolves
Since when was Kyle Anderson 28 years old? With that in mind, it’s not hard to see him getting a four or even five year contract. Every team needs solid veterans to solidify their rotation, and Anderson accmplishes that for a lot of teams. I think he’s going to the;
Minnesota Timberwolves
I’m going to assume trading D’Angelo Russell this offseason will clear up cap space. Perhaps enough to sign Kyle Anderson – would would give Minnesota more offense on the wings.
Projected Contract: 3 years / $39 million ($13 million AAV)
Taurean Prince
Speaking of Timberwolves forwards, Taurean Prince is on the open market. Despite not having the most eye-popping stats, I’m sure Prince will have suitors this offseason. Any forward who shoots 38% from outside will have his phone ringing.
The Timberwolves need his shooting, but so do a lot of teams;
Literally Any Team
Prince could go anywhere, and I wouldn’t be remotely surprised. We could see him on a playoff team next season or on a team that contends for the #1 overall pick. That’s why, to avoid looking stupid, I’m not going to make a prediction. Suck it.
Projected Contract: 3 years / $25 million ($8.3 million AAV)
Kevon Looney
Kevon Looney is here, and he’s here to stay. James Wiseman was supposed to be the sexy replacement for Looney, the last center from the Warriors’ dynasty days. Instead, Looney has turned into one of the most reliable centers in the league.
He can rebound, pass, move well in space, and even defend Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum on the perimeter? Huh? He’s not supposed to do that! While Wiseman is losing his primitive years on the bench with injuries, Looney is making a name for himself.
And just in time, as it turns out. Looney is a UFA this offseason, and a lot of teams will throw him money now. It’s like NFL teams who throw big deals at Patriots players. It’s just something that happens. The Warriors will have to pay a hefty luxury tax to keep Looney. I think they’ll do that, but let’s entertain some chaos;
Portland Trail Blazers
New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors
Philadelphia 76ers
Washington Wizards
Miami Heat
There’s a lot of places Looney could go, but I keep coming back to one place;
Miami Heat
Miami needs Looney and I think he would fit well in Heat Culture. And, some time in South Beach can’t hurt, either.
Projected Contract: 4 years / $40 million ($10 million AAV)
Bruce Brown
The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NBA over the past few seasons. Bruce Brown has been one of their more reliable players over that stretch. Heck, he even invented a new position – The Rover.
With the Nets struggling with cap space, Brown could walk in free agency. With his tenacious defense and upside on offense, I don’t think he’ll find it hard to stick somewhere else.
Los Angeles Lakers
Boston Celtics
Miami Heat
Golden State Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
If you couldn’t already tell, I think Brown is a lock to go to some sort of contending team. Of the teams I mentioned, the Dallas Mavericks are the hungriest team. So, I think they would be a perfect fit for Bruce Brown.
Dallas Mavericks
Projected Contract: 3 years / $18 million ($6 million per year)
Otto Porter Jr
Porter thrived as a role player after years of being overpaid. I thought he was washing with the Bulls and Magic. The Warriors brought out the best of him offensively. Remember when he took over that Christmas Day game against the Suns? Yeah, that could only happen with the Warriors.
And if I were Porter, I would take less money to stay with the Warriors. He’s currently one game away from his first ring. Golden State’s system is similar to the sets he ran in college.
With all that in mind, I don’t think Otto Porter would want to leave. He’s already gotten a $100 million+ contract in the NBA. Now, in his mind, it may be time to win.
Warriors (Re-Sign)
Projected Contract: 1 years / $2.5 million
What Are Your Thoughts On My Predictions? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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