Reacting To The NBA Over/Under Win Totals
A few days ago, Caesars Sportsbook released their NBA over/under win totals. They gave a projected win total for each time and of course you could be the over/under on any one of those. Today is not the day where I give gambling advice, but where I look at the win totals and see what I agree with and what I don’t agree with.
Again, this is not gambling advice. Go somewhere else for that.
The Bottom Feeders (≤30 Wins)
Here are the teams that aren’t expected to make the playoffs. With the NBA going to a regular 82 game schedule, we can rule some of these teams out already in late August. It would surprise us if they even made the play-in, because they just aren’t good right now for one reason or another.
OKC Thunder – 22.5 Projected Wins
Really no surprise here. The Thunder have talent and a lot of potential, but their roster is just so young. They don’t have many veterans and this is most of their roster as of right now;
SGA – 23 years old
Josh Giddey (R) – 18 years old
Tre Mann (R) – 20 years old
Theo Maledon – 20 years old
Aleksej Pokusevski – 19 years old
Darius Bazley – 21 years old
Lu Dort – 22 years old
Like I said, they’re really young and they don’t have any experience in the NBA, or really any veterans other than Mike Muscala and Derrick Favors. I do think they can win more than 20 games, but I think the most wins I’d give them is like 27-31 or something. They aren’t going to be good and they aren’t trying to be, they’re rebuilding. So this is pretty accurate.
Orlando Magic – 23.5 Projected Wins
Again, nothing really surprising here. The Magic dealt away all of their good players at the trade deadline last year and now they’re going in full rebuild mode. They have a lot of young talent and not a lot of experience, as noted by their current roster;
Jalen Suggs (R) – 20 years old
Franz Wagner (R) – 19 years old
Cole Anthony – 21 years old
RJ Hampton – 20 years old
Jonathan Isaac – 23 years old
Mo Bamba – 23 years old
Wendell Carter Jr. – 22 years old
Markelle Fultz – 23 years old
Chuma Okeke – 23 years old
The Magic are really, really young. Their head coach, Jamahl Mosley, has never coached in the NBA before. Their only veteran is Robin Lopez. This team has a lot of youth and a new coach, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Magic are the worst team in the league this season.
The Magic are rebuilding and this season is a tryout for who they want to keep for the future and who is expendable. This is the start of the Magic hopefully building towards a great team in the future, but it will be a little bumpy at the start win wise.
Detroit Pistons – 25.5 Projected Wins
I kind of agree with this one because the Pistons are rebuilding, but I really won’t be surprised if they surpassed this projected total. They have added some nice young talent, highlighted by #1 overall pick Cade Cunningham. Their roster has a lot of youth but they are better than the two teams I have already mentioned. Their roster looks slightly better, mostly due to experience.
Cade Cunningham (R) – 19 years old
Saddiq Bey – 22 years old
Killian Hayes – 20 years old
Luka Garza – 22 years old
Saben Lee – 22 years old
Isaiah Stewart – 20 years old
Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart were both on All-Rookie teams last year. Cade Cunningham was the #1 overall pick for a reason and should be really good from the jump. Guys like Killian Hayes, Saben Lee, and Luka Garza are talented players. The Pistons youth talent pool is already pretty deep.
Add into that they have a good, veteran coach like Dwayne Casey. Casey has coached some playoff teams with the Raptors, so he has experience, experience that will help a really young team like the Pistons.
Then there’s Jerami Grant. I think last year his stats kind of overrepresented how good he is. Don’t get me wrong he is good, but I think this year he’ll be more accurately represented now that the Pistons have more talent. He’s a good 2nd option for this team that can give them 15-20 points per night along with pretty good defense.
I don’t expect the Pistons to make the play-in or anything, but them winning 30 games isn’t crazy. Really wouldn’t be surprised if they won somewhere close to that amount of games this season.
Houston Rockets – 25.5 Projected Wins
Like the Pistons, I agree that the Rockets are rebuilding and they aren’t going to be making the playoffs or anything. But, this just seems too low for them. Not only do they have some really nice young talent, they also have some good veteran players that aren’t part of the rebuild, but they are nice compliments to all the young talent that the Rockets have.
Again, I could be wrong, but this team isn’t that bad. Or at least not 26 projected wins bad;
-Jalen Green (R)
-Alperen Sengun (R)
-Josh Christopher (R)
-Kevin Porter Jr.
-Daniel Theis
-Christian Wood
-John Wall
-Usman Garuba (R)
Jalen Green highlights the 4 rookies taken by the Rockets in the first round. Green is an electrifying scoring wing and should prove to be good from the jump. Big guys like Sengun and Garuba are solid and Josh Christopher is a project player.
But alongside that youth, you have John Wall, who still averaged 20 ppg last season. When healthy, Christian Wood was an MIP candidate last year. He’s the starter down low (likely) and he’s a good scorer that should help the offense greatly. Daniel Theis is a great backup.
I know they’re young, unproven, and kind of a mess right now, but the Rockets have a lot of depth and talent, especially down low. I do get the reasoning for them not winning a lot games, but they should be able to get over this mark.
Cleveland Cavaliers – 26.5 Projected Wins
This is one I disagree with completely. The Cavs should win more than this projected total, or else things are worse than I thought. The Cavs have built up a pretty solid roster filled with mostly young talent and while I don’t think that they’re anything great, they should be able to surpass a meager 27 wins.
The Cavs might not be the deepest team, but this starting lineup should be able to win at least 27 games, right?
Collin Sexton – Might not be with the team for much longer, but he can put the ball in the basket better than any other Cavalier
Darius Garland – Garland is the floor general for the Cavs and he was awesome last season, greatly improving in all areas. He’s the future of this team and I’m excited for his 3rd season
Isaac Okoro – Okoro offers some much needed wing defense. If he adds an outside shot, he would be the perfect 3&D wing.
Evan Mobley – The third overall pick in this year’s draft, Mobley is the definition of versatile. He can pass, handle, and shoot on offense and defend 1-5 on defense, along with being an elite shot-blocker. He might struggle early in his career due to strength issues, but he should become a great player
Jarrett Allen – Maybe over paid, but he’s still pretty good as an interior defender and rebounder. Shown flashes of a jumpshot, should be the Cavs franchise defensive anchor down low.
This team isn’t great or anything, but they’re young and good. The starting 5 has a lot of upside and with time, they could be a really good team.
Off the bench you have Lamar Stevens, Cedi Osman, Ricky Rubio, Larry Nance Jr, and Kevin Love, if he’s even interesting at playing for Cleveland anymore. The bench isn’t crazy, but it certainly isn’t bad. Stevens, Rubio, and Nance should be solid and maybe Cedi Osman maybe has a bounce back season.
I know the Cavs are rebuilding, they’re young, and they’re inexperienced. But 27 wins? They should be able to clear that mark, I hope.
Mediocre Teams (30-38 Wins)
These teams aren’t bad, but they’re not exactly good, supposedly. Most of these at best are going to be going for a play-in scenario, but these guys aren’t exactly championship contenders in 2022.
Minnesota T-Wolves – 33.5 Projected Wins
I do agree that the T-Wolves are mediocre, but I don’t know, I just feel like this is their year where they do something. They certainly have their best talent pool that they’ve had since KG left them and I think that they finally have a competent coach in Chris Finch behind them.
There is a lot to be excited about for this young and up-and-coming T-Wolves team, I would definitely list them as a sleeper team this season. I have a lot of faith in this core;
D’Angelo Russell
Anthony Edwards
Josh Okogie
Jaden McDaniels
Karl-Anthony Towns
Malik Beasley
Taurean Prince
Jarred Vanderbilt (if he accepts qualifying offer)
Naz Reid
Patrick Beverley
Nathan Knight
Jaylen Nowell
I really like this team. You have a lot of scoring with guys like D-Lo, Towns, Edwards, and Beasley. Okogie, McDaniels, and Beverley offer some defense. You have good depth off the bench and Chris Finch seems like a massive upgrade over Ryan Saunders.
I think the T-Wolves are going to be a sleeper this team season, so look out for them as they try and make noise in a loaded Western Conference.
Washington Wizards – 33.5 Projected Wins
Everybody has been saying that the Wizards are a much better team now, but I’m not fully on board with that. I think a better word would be different, the Washington Wizards are much different now. I think that the T-Wolves are easily the better team, so I’m not as on board with the Wizards as I am with Minnesota.
This roster is more weird than anything, there’s just so much going on and a lot we just don’t know about it yet;
Spencer Dinwiddie
Bradley Beal
Deni Avdija
Rui Hachimura
Daniel Gafford
Montrezl Harrell
Thomas Bryant
Kyle Kuzma
Davis Bertans
KCP
Corey Kispert (R)
Aaron Holiday
This roster is just so full, I don’t know what to do with it. Who is starting at small forward? Who is starting at center? Do you play the young guys more or the veterans? Can Wes Unseld Jr, a first time coach, manage all of this?
The Wizards should be rebuilding, but now they have so many questions and not a whole lot of answers right now. This team isn’t great, at best they’re a play-in team. I just don’t get why they continue to try and be mediocre instead of building for the future.
Sacramento Kings – 35.5 Projected Wins
This is right about where I’d put the Kings, not terrible, but just on the edge of being a play-in team. They certainly have the talent, but with them likely (still) not having defense or a coach for that matter, they aren’t going to be a sure-fire top 10 seed in a loaded Western Conference.
But they certainly are a talented team, for once;
De’Aaron Fox
Tyrese Haliburton
Harrison Barnes
Davion Mitchell
Buddy Hield
Marvin Bagley
Richuan Holmes
Terence Davis
I don’t know why Luke Walton is still the coach. They should have never fired Dave Joerger, but instead they have Walton who isn’t qualified to be an NBA coach. The defense and coaching will continue to hold them back even though they should be ready to compete.
De’Aaron Fox is an All-Star. The Barnes-Hield-Holmes trio is great. Haliburton, Mitchell, and Terance Davis are great young guards. Marvin Bagley is a bust and likely not going to be with the team much longer, but I mean, he could still contribute a little bit off the bench.
The Kings have talent but now it’s time for them to really go all in, starting by finding a new coach who can get the Kings to play some defense (hint: not Luke Walton).
Toronto Raptors – 36.5 Projected Wins
They are really disrespecting the Raptors. The Raptors 2021 season was less favorable than the Bubble. Pascal Siakam downgraded from being an All-Star and the Raptors dealt with a lot of injuries/Covid. They didn’t have a competent starting center for most of the season and not to mention, they didn’t play a home game all season.
They had to play their “home” games in Tampa Bay, so they were away from their homes and families. So 2021 was a throw away year, but this is their bounce back year. They have a lot of young talent and even with the loss of Kyle Lowry, the Raptors have added talent, still have elite coaching, and should be a pretty good team this season.
The roster looks a lot better than it did just a few months ago, one of the better and more complete rosters in the East;
Fred VanVleet
Malachi Flynn
Pascal Siakam
OG Anunoby
Khem Birch
Precious Achiuwa
Goran Dragic
Scottie Barnes (R)
Chris Boucher
This team has it all. I’m expecting a bounce back season from Siakam, which should kickstart the Raptors in 2022, along with them finally playing in Canada again. The backcourt has promise and you have really good wings like Barnes and Anunoby with so much potential.
You finally have some good center options and now Nick Nurse has a competent roster as his disposal, with depth all around that he can use to his advantage. I expect the Raptors to win 40+ games this season and return to the playoffs. They’re just that good.
Charlotte Hornets – 37.5 Projected Wins
Again, not gambling advice, but you should be the over on this one. The Hornets had a surprising 2021 and they added depth and talent this offseason via the draft and free agency. They are young, deep, and exciting and they are on the rise. I really think that 37 wins is incredibly disrespectful
Look at this roster. You can’t tell me this isn’t a playoff team, even if the Eastern Conference is now vastly better than it was a few seasons ago;
Terry Rozier
Lamelo Ball
Gordon Hayward
PJ Washington
Mason Plumlee
Miles Bridges
Kelly Oubre Jr.
James Bouknight (R)
Kai Jones (R)
Jalen McDaniels
Look at this team. You have a lot of scoring options with Rozier, Hayward, Bridges, Oubre, the rookie James Bouknight, and even Lamelo Ball, who isn’t known as a scorer just yet. Speaking of Ball, he should be great in year #2 and he’s going to make this offense hum.
The wing depth off the bench with Bridges, Oubre, and McDaniels is excellent. Plumlee is a great starter and while Kai Jones is raw, he has so much potential.
This team is very young and exciting, so expect a fast paced offense that will run laps around most teams. They are on the come up and I think that they could win 40-43 games. They’re certainly a play-in team and if they gel well, they could very well become a sure-fire playoff team in the East.
Look out for Charlotte, everybody.
Play-In Contenders (40-45 Wins)
Crazy to think that even 45 wins cannot guarantee you a spot in the playoffs anymore, in either conference. Anyway, these teams are good. They are playoff contenders and this is where we start getting to the teams that matter more than the others (sorry other teams). These teams are almost 100% playoff/play-in locks, so there should be a lot of debating ahead of us.
New Orleans Pelicans – 40.5 Projected Wins
I was never aware that Las Vegas was this stupid. Although to be fair, they do support the Raiders. I guess that makes sense. The Pelicans are not better than the Raptors/Hornets, I’d just like to get that out of the way. I get that Zion is incredible and Brandon Ingram is great, but there are so many questions that we don’t have answers for as of right now.
Tell me this roster is better than either the Raptors or the Hornets with a straight face;
Devonte’ Graham
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Brandon Ingram
Zion Williamson
Jonas Valanciuas
Trey Murphy III (R)
Jaxson Hayes
Kira Lewis Jr.
Tomas Satoransky
Garrett Temple
Herb Jones (R)
Josh Hart
Does this team have enough spacing around Zion? Is Devonte’ Graham worth that 4 year deal that he got? How will Valanciunas play next to Zion? Can Willie Green get this team to play defense? Is Nickeil Alexander-Walker ready to start? What about the bench? Should Kira Lewis Jr. start? What about Trey Murphy III, what’s his role?
I digress. There are so many questions with this team. If they want to be good, wait it boils down to is simple. Is Devonte’ Graham good enough? Can they get good bench production? Defense? Coaching?
The Pelicans have a lot of variables in 2022. They didn’t have the most ideal offseason and them not having Lonzo Ball will hurt a lot, as I’m sure they’ll find out. I don’t think they’re a playoff team, especially in a loaded Western Conference.
Memphis Grizzlies – 41.5 Projected Wins
I was very excited for the Grizzlies in 2022. They are young, exciting, and they have an identity. This was supposed to be the year where they take that next step, as indicated by them projected to win 40+ games this season. But their offseason was very, very, very, very, very weird. They made some questionable moves and honestly, I think they got a lot worse.
Look at what they lost, what they added, and where they stand right now;
What The Grizzlies Lost:
-Grayson Allen (11 ppg on 39% 3-PT shooting last season)
-Jonas Valanciunas (17.1 ppg and 12.5 rpg on 59% shooting last season)
Allen and Valanciunas were two key members of Memphis’ rotation last season. Allen had a career year shooting the ball and Valanciunas was a double-double machine, the perfect pairing with Ja Morant. Let’s just say the incoming guys have big shoes to fill.
What The Grizzlies Added:
-Ziaire Williams (#10 overall pick via New Orleans)
-Steven Adams (via New Orleans)
-Jarrett Culver (via Minnesota)
-Sam Merrill (via Milwaukee)
-Rajon Rondo (via Los Angeles Clippers)
Steven Adams is a downgrade from Valanciunas offensively. Ziaire Williams needs a lot of time to develop. Jarrett Culver is looking like a bust. Sam Merrill is a less than ideal return package for Allen, who was so good for Memphis last year. Rajon Rondo might stay, he might not.
Now he’s what the Grizzlies team looks like now;
Ja Morant
Dillon Brooks
Kyle Anderson
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Steven Adams
Desmond Bane
Ziaire Williams (R)
Xavier Tillman
Brandon Clarke
Jarrett Culver
Tyus Jones
De’Anthony Melton
Santi Aldama (R)
Rajon Rondo
This roster is now weird. The starting lineup still looks solid, even with Steven Adams. But the bench is weird. So many guys who deserve minutes but some guys will end up being pushed out of the rotation. It happened to Brandon Clarke last year and I’m guessing it’ll happen with somebody again.
The Grizzlies got weirder this offseason. If they had remained mostly the same, I would have probably agreed with around 41 wins. But they are a lot different of a team and I don’t know if that means better as of right now. We’ll just have to see, but I am not jumping on the Grizzlies bandwagon just yet.
Oh yeah, they want to trade Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson. What are the Grizzlies doing???
New York Knicks – 41.5 Projected Wins
Putting the Knicks at 41 wins is still a little bit of a shock after them being so bad for so long, but to put them on the same level as the Memphis Grizzlies? The Knicks had one of the best off-seasons in the NBA, adding a lot of offensive firepower to make them less of a one-sided team. They should be ranked a lot higher than this.
They have the pieces and now it’s time to compete in the East and show that last year wasn’t a fluke. Just look at what the Knicks added/retained this offseason;
-Kemba Walker (2yr Contract)
-Evan Fournier (4yr Contract)
-Alec Burks (3yr Re-Sign)
-Derrick Rose (3yr Re-Sign)
-Nerlens Noel (3yr Re-Sign)
-Quintin Grimes (#25 Pick)
-Miles McBride (#36 Pick)
Walker and Fournier bring a lot of scoring, as do Burks & Rose. Noel was excellent for the Knicks when Mitchell Robinson was hurt and should be a great defensive backup. Quintin Grimes can shoot and Miles McBride can do stuff off the dribble.
They already have RJ Barrett, who improved to a 40% 3-PT shooter last year, as did Julius Randle, who was an All-Star and won Most Improved Player. The Knicks kept 3 rotation pieces and did a great job adding talent around what they already had.
They are a deep team who is still likely going to be a great defensive team under Tom Thibodeau. Now they finally have an offense they can rely on and one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. The Knicks are going to be a sure-fire playoff team again winning somewhere between 45-50 games this season, they’re that good.
Chicago Bulls – 41.5 Projected Wins
The Bulls had a spending spree in free agency, adding a lot of new pieces. Some people liked it a lot and others didn’t. But I think around 41-43 wins is right around where I’d put the Bulls. While the Knicks were a playoff team last year that added a lot, the Bulls were the 11th seed. So while they added a lot, this win total is pretty accurate.
But the Bulls did add a lot of talent and their roster looks a lot better now;
Lonzo Ball
Zach Lavine
DeMar DeRozan
Patrick Williams
Nikola Vucevic
Alex Caruso
Coby White (+)
Tony Bradley
Ayo Dosunmu (R)
Troy Brown Jr
The Bulls are a lot better, but they some things. For starters, they lost a lot of frontcourt depth. They only have Williams, Vucevic, and Tony Bradley down low. Unless they sign somebody, DeMar DeRozan will have to play power forward. Although to be fair, over the past 2 seasons over 50% of his playing time with the Spurs was at power forward.
The bench doesn’t have a lot of firepower, although when Coby White comes back from injury he should help with that. Then there’s the coaching. Billy Donovan is decent, but I don’t know if he’s going to be the long-term coach there. With DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic being older, the Bulls might have to decide quickly what to do at the head coach position.
I don’t mean to be all picky and stuff, but the Bulls should be a good team, nothing more, nothing less. At the very, very best they can maybe push for 50 wins, but they should be well in the 40’s range for this season.
Indiana Pacers – 42.5 Projected Wins
I really like the Indiana Pacers this year and I don’t know why. They have disappointed us the last few years due to injuries and shortcomings in the playoffs. Let’s just say 2021 wasn’t their year, as a mix of injuries, a bad coach, and literal cancer led them to missing the playoffs.
But the Pacers are quick on their feet. They hired Rick Carlisle, one of the better coaches in the NBA who used to coach in Indiana. They added two good rookies in the draft and with any luck? They should be a playoff team once again, hopefully with results for once.
This roster looks really good on paper, as have most Pacers teams the past few season;
Malcolm Brogdon
Caris Levert
TJ Warren
Domantas Sabonis
Myles Turner
Chris Duarte (R)
Jeremy Lamb
TJ McConnell
Isaiah Jackson (R)
Justin Holiday
Torrey Craig
Oshae Brissett
The Pacers are pretty deep and they look like a really solid team, this time with a competent coach behind them. Brogdon and Sabonis are a great duo, two of the more underrated players in the league. Levert and Warren are your two wing scorers and Myles Turner anchors the paint.
Off the bench, McConnell is the defensive floor general. Holiday and Lamb offer shooting and scoring. Rookie Chris Duarte is a really good two-way guard already and another rookie, Isaiah Jackson should become a good backup. The Pacers should be pretty good in 2022 with this retooled roster.
I like what they have going and I think that they could be a really good sleeper team who could definitely make to the 2nd round of the playoffs. I am very excited for the Pacers this season.
Portland Trail Blazers – 43.5 Projected Wins
I think my Blazers are better than 43 wins, but then again, we’re probably losing in the first round anyway, so it doesn’t really matter. Although I will argue that Portland always outperforms in the regular season for one reason or another. But this is a pretty good estimation of where Portland is going to be.
The starting lineup remains the same (for now, Dame please don’t leave), and that’s good, but the bench is interesting. I’m glad we lost defensive liabilities like Carmelo and Enes Kanter, but the replacements will have to step up. Chauncey Billups will have to prove me wrong and show me that he can coach (I doubt it) and most of all, we have to play defense.
This roster doesn’t look very good on paper compared to other teams in the West, but I mean it’s not bad or anything;
Damian Lillard (for now)
CJ McCollum
Norman Powell
Robert Covington
Jusuf Nurkic
Cody Zeller
Anfernee Simons
Tony Snell
Ben McLemore
Greg Brown (R)
This team is…decent. Assuming that Nurkic and CJ don’t get hurt again, the starting lineup should be good. In 370 minutes during the regular season, that starting 5 had a +14.9 net rating. In the playoffs, that jumped to +19.5. So the starting 5 won’t be the problem. It’ll be the bench that makes or breaks how good we can be.
I like Cody Zeller, but how much offense can you get from McLemore/Snell/Simons? Will second rounder Greg Brown play a role? Will the bench defense be better or worse than it was in 2021? The bench is my biggest concern as of right now.
I’m not really going to talk about defense. Although the starting lineup has 3 guys who are 6’3″ and under, they were good together last year and that should stay the same. All I need Chauncey to do is get Portland to play hard at the very least. I’m not setting a high bar here.
The Blazers should be a solid team that could push for 50 wins if things go right. Hopefully we don’t have injuries again like we did last year and we should be solid. Maybe a 5th seed at best and then another first round exit. Sounds pretty good to me.
LA Clippers – 44.5 Projected Wins
While the Clippers will likely be without the Klaw for 2022, they are still good. They won 4 playoff games without him and made it to their first Western Conference Finals in franchise history. Not to downplay Kawhi at all, he’s still amazing, but the Clippers should still be a solid team even without Kawhi.
This roster is still deep and there are a lot of options for Ty Lue to try and make a playoff team;
Reggie Jackson
Luke Kennard
Paul George
Marcus Morris
Ivica Zubac
Eric Bledsoe
Keon Johnson (R)
Justice Winslow
Serge Ibaka
Terance Mann
Nicolas Batum
Now I really hope the Clippers don’t start Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe at the same time. That’s like mixing oil and water, I really wouldn’t like that. I think that that starting 5 that I listed above is good. If Paul George can turn into MVPG and Reggie Jackson activates playoff mode, it’ll be even better.
Off the bench, you have a lot of defensive versatility with Batum, Ibaka, Mann, and Winslow. Rookie Keon Johnson is also a pretty good defender. You also have rookies like Jason Preston and Brandon Boston Jr. that could make an impact, but that is unlikely.
The Clippers still have depth and good coaching. I know not having Kawhi takes them out from being title contenders, but they are still a playoff team and could be that team you don’t want to play in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
Make The Playoffs Or Else (45-49 Wins)
These are the teams that if they make the play-in, you’re probably going to be disappointed in them. These teams are good and they should firmly be in the playoffs. No more explanation is needed.
Atlanta Hawks – 46.5 Projected Wins
God this is so disrespectful. The Hawks ended the 2021 season on a roll with Nate McMillan, ending up just two wins away from the NBA Finals. They are a lot better than this and I think this is a pretty big-time lowball. The Hawks were 27-11 in the regular season with McMillan and they won 10 playoff games. They should easily be able to surpass this.
This roster is filled with a lot of young talent and veterans. McMillan pushed all the right buttons last year and now he gets to be with the roster for training camp and the whole season, meaning they should only get better. This roster is definitely good enough to win 50+ games;
Trae Young
Bogdan Bogdanovic
De’Andre Hunter
John Collins
Clint Capela
Jalen Johnson (R)
Delon Wright
Sharife Cooper (R)
Danilo Gallinari
Lou Williams
Cam Reddish
Kevin Huerter
Onyeka Okungwu (+)
This team is deep. The starting lineup should be a lot better with De’Andre Hunter coming back. If Hunter can stay healthy, the Hawks become a lot better. Young is still great and he has his shooter in Bogdanovic as well as two versatile frontcourt mates in Capela + Collins to catch lobs at the rim.
Off the bench, you have a fusion of young and old. Gallinari and Williams are the veteran scorers. Delon Wright is the backup guard. Kevin Huerter can score well and so can Cam Reddish. Rookie Jalen Johnson can be a versatile defender and scorer, a filler for Okungwu as he recovers from surgery. Rookie Sharife Cooper is the lighting fast guard who could also get minutes as a backup.
The Hawks have it all. Scoring, shooting, versatile wings, depth, young talent, veterans, good coaching, the whole nine yards. This team should win somewhere around 55 games in my opinion. Last year in the regular season, the Hawks had a record of 27-11 (71%) with Nate McMillan. 71% of a full 82-game schedule is around 58 games.
So I’m not crazy by saying that the Hawks could be really, really good in 2022. Again, not gambling advice, but you definitely want to bet the over on this one.
Boston Celtics – 46.5 Projected Wins
Now this is one I agree with more. The Celtics were hit hard by injuries, Covid, and poor depth in 2021. They made a lot of changes this offseason and now they’re a lot better. Brad Stevens in now their GM and Ime Udoka is the head coach. Al Horford headlines the newcomers as the Celtics are well positioned to have a bounce back year.
I think that the Celtics could be a really solid team in 2022 if Ime Udoka ends up being as good as some people seem to think he is. If he can get the Celtics to move the ball and play defense, the skies the limit for the C’s. This roster has come a long way in a few months, so Udoka certainly has his options;
Marcus Smart
Josh Richardson
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Al Horford
Robert Williams
Payton Pritchard
Enes Kanter
Dennis Schroder
Aaron Nesmith
The Celtics look a lot better. Their backcourt of Smart and Richardson offers a lot of defense. The two Jay’s are both elite scoring wings who should both once again be All-Star caliber players in 2022. While Al Horford is 34, he offers solid floor spacing, passing, and defense.
Robert Williams could see time as a starter, but he’ll be great as a backup getting 20-25 minutes per game. Pritchard and Nesmith should see bigger roles in their second season. Dennis Schroder is the 6th man bucket getter and Enes Kanter is solid enough.
Not to mention guys like Romeo Langford who could finally get some playing time. The Celtics bench is a little bit concerning, but I think it should be able to hold up well.
The Celtics are good. They have a lot more depth and I think that they should be a really solid team. If everything goes well, they could very well be a 5th seed in the East. The Celtics should be back in 2022, so look out Philadelphia.
Miami Heat – 47.5 Projected Wins
I’m on the fence with this one. The Heat could very well be a 50+ win team in the regular season, but they could also win like 45 games but still be that team that nobody wants to face in the playoffs. I think that the Heat are more built for the postseason and the regular season really doesn’t matter to them.
Sure, maybe the Bubble did help them a lot. But I think that with this new retooled roster, they’re scary again in the playoffs and like I said, they could very well be good immediately in the regular season.
Kyle Lowry
Duncan Robinson
Jimmy Butler
PJ Tucker
Bam Adebayo
Tyler Herro
Victor Oladipo
Markieff Morris
Max Strus
Dewayne Dedmon
The Heat eat nails for breakfast. Without any milk. That starting 5 is scary, 4 elite defenders and one elite shooter in Duncan Robinson. Robinson probably belongs in Super Weenie Hut Juniors, but he’s here anyway. The Heat probably have the best starting 5 capable of dealing with the Brooklyn Nets. They have versatile, tough defenders that should make life as hard as possible for the Nets.
The bench is a little bit iffy with the lack of a backup guard, so maybe Tyler Herro or Oladipo plays point guard, which I just hate. Backup center is decent enough, but I am definitely not in love with the bench.
But Eric Spoelstra should have a monstrous defense with that starting 5 and the Heat should be lethal in the playoffs. In my mind, they have the best starting 5 to try and combat all that the Nets bring offensively, so I think it’s safe to say Pat Riley and Miami should be back in full form for 2022.
Dallas Mavericks – 47.5 Projected Wins
Luka Doncic is literally the only reason I agree with this. Dallas again failed to give him a consistent 2nd star and again just loaded up on role players, which is fine I guess, but Luka desperately needs a second All-Star teammate. No offense to Reggie Bullock, but he clearly isn’t that.
The Mavericks will likely be carried by Luka again, but they seriously need to get him help and get a coach who isn’t obsessed with water slides;
The roster isn’t anything great, again it’s really just Luka;
Luka Doncic
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Reggie Bullock
Dorian Finney-Smith
Kristaps Porzingis
Maxi Kleber
Moses Brown
Jalen Brunson
Sterling Brown
I mean, Hardaway and Bullock are good shooters and Hardaway is probably their 2nd option, but I just don’t like Porzingis. If the Mavs had like Myles Turner or Jonas Valanciunas, they would be miles better, but instead they have Porzingis who just isn’t that good anymore.
The bench is decent, maybe Moses Brown can give them something. Hopefully guys like Josh Green/Tyrell Terry get more minutes in their 2nd season.
But I just don’t think the Mavericks are contenders. Luka can almost single handily win them a series, but is the support around him enough to win at the very least one series? If Jason Kidd still infatuated with single moms at waterparks? We’ll just have to wait and see.
(Update: Jared Dudley is now an assistant coach. Luka, for the love of god, please leave).
Denver Nuggets – 47.5 Projected Wins
I know Jamal Murray might not play for all of 2022, but come on man. Denver is so much better than Dallas, like it’s not even close. Unlike Dallas, the Nuggets front office has built an incredibly deep team around Nikola Jokic, who is one of the most disrespected MVP’s of all-time by the way.
If Murray can comeback healthy, this Nuggets team will be a juggernaut, mark my words;
Facundo Campazzo/Monte Morris
Will Barton
Michael Porter Jr.
Aaron Gordon
That Jokic Guy
Bones Hyland (R + great name)
Jeff Green
JaMychal Green
PJ Dozier
Austin Rivers
Jamal Murray (+)
Wow is this team deep. Behind Jamal Murray, you have some really good options. Monte Morris is a great scorer and doesn’t turn the ball over. Campazzo is the crafty veteran and Austin Rivers can score well. Even without Murray, Michael Malone (don’t call him Mike), has a platoon of guards at his disposal. Not to mention rookie guard Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland, who is a natural shot-creator.
I love their wing depth. Aaron Gordon is a solid cutter and defender, should once again be great with Jokic as the two of them had a +8.3 net rating in over 600 minutes together. MPJ is a lethal offensive player with so much potential. The next step for him is creating for himself more in isolation as well as defense. But then you have Jeff Green and PJ Dozier, two really solid wing defenders.
The Nuggets don’t have a true backup center, however the other Green, JaMychal, is a solid stretch big and should work well as the Paul Millsap replacement.
The Denver Nuggets are like Rodney Dangerfield, they don’t get no damn respect. They are deep, well coached, and incredibly talented. I get that no Jamal Murray might not make them legit contenders, but they ended last season with a 14-4 record without Jamal Murray and they won a playoff series. They aren’t going to be lost without him and I really see them winning 50 games in 2022. They’re just that good.
Golden State Warriors – 48.5 Projected Wins
I easily think the Warriors can be this good, but I’m not going all in on them just yet. They added 3 talented players, including getting Klay Thompson back after two years of injuries. That all helps, but I am not 100% on board with the Warriors. I’ll have to see it to believe it.
I think that the Warriors will be a playoff team and that Steph Curry’s back will have less of a load this season. But I am one foot in one foot out right now for a few reasons. Not to say this roster hasn’t gotten better;
Stephen Curry
Klay Thompson (Moody/Poole until he gets back)
Andrew Wiggins
Draymond Green
James Wiseman
Kevon Looney
Jonathan Kuminga
Moses Moody
Jordan Poole
Juan Toscano-Anderson
Otto Porter
I WANT IGUODALA (rip Max Kellerman)
The Warriors have a lot more depth. Obviously Curry is still amazing and Draymond is an elite defender. But you have a lot more depth, especially at the wing position. Outside of the much improved Andrew Wiggins, Steve Kerr will have a lot of options to go to.
Andre Iguodala knows the system and will likely play big late minutes for the Warriors. Otto Porter offers scoring. JTA is a incredibly high motor player. Jonathan Kuminga is the incredibly raw rookie with so much upside as a two-way player. Moses Moody and Jordan Poole are two solid scoring guards. That’s great and all, but I still have my questions.
First of all, how good will Klay Thompson be when he gets back? How good he’ll be will dictate a lot for the Warriors. Secondly, what are you doing at center? Wiseman obviously has higher upside, but you were better with the veteran Kevon Looney starting last season. Interesting to see what they do there.
I could easily see the Warriors around 45-50 wins, but I am hesitant to call them like contenders or anything. They just have a lot of variables, variables that are in fact important, like how good your 2nd option will be and who is starting at center. Best case scenario is Klay is fine and the rookies don’t have a James Wiseman-esque rookie season. It’s hard to imagine the Warriors having a best-case scenario 2022.
Contenders (50-54 Wins)
These are the teams you wouldn’t be surprised to see win a title. They’re really good, the cream of the crop, whatever, you get it.
Phoenix Suns – 51.5 Projected Wins
I don’t think this needs much explaining. The Suns made the Finals last year and their window is still open. They are still talented and deep and have great young talent that will only get better in 2022. They should be really good once again under Monty Williams.
This roster isn’t stacked or anything, they just kind of play well;
Chris Paul
Devin Booker
Mikal Bridges
Jae Crowder
Deandre Ayton
Cam Johnson
Landry Shamet
Javale McGee
Cam Payne
Dario Saric (+)
The Suns are really good. Even if Chris Paul regresses in 2022, the Suns have young guys who are still rapidly improving. Devin Booker is an elite scorer. Mikal Bridges can become an even better scorer, adding to his 3&D wing role. Deandre Ayton can score like he did in the playoffs for the whole season.
Some people seem to think that if CP-3 even regresses slightly, the Suns are done. Well that’s simply not true, the Suns are still very good. Then there’s the role players;
-Jae Crowder gives you shooting and defense
-Cam Johnson was excellent in the playoffs
-I LOVE Landry Shamet
-Javale McGee is a solid backup center
-Cam Payne can score off the dribble and is everybody’s favorite dancer
-When healthy, Dario Saric is a great small ball center
I love the additions of Shamet and Javale McGee. I expect that Bridges, Ayton, and Cam Johnson will all get better in 2022. So even if CP-3 slows down with age, the Suns are still elite. Monty Williams was a great coach for most of 2021 (forget Games 3-6 of the Finals), so 50+ wins for the Suns seems pretty, pretty easy.
LA Lakers – 51.5 Projected Wins
Everybody’s favorite team is back. The Lakers completely overhauled their roster this offseason and they look a lot different and better. So much more depth and shooting, plus no more Dennis Schroder. What an offseason for Rob Pelinka. Now it’s just time for AD to remain healthy for once and to see how Russell Westbrook fits in. Should be fun.
The Lakers look loaded for 2022, despite the face that they are a part-time retirement home;
Russell Westbrook
Malik Monk
Trevor Ariza
Lebron James
Anthony Davis
Carmelo Anthony
Talen Horton-Tucker
Wayne Ellington
Dwight Howard
Marc Gasol
Kendrick Nunn
Kent Bazemore
The Lakers are deep. The fit with Westbrook is interesting, but they have shooters. Bazemore, Nunn, Monk, Ariza, Ellington, and Carmelo all help the spacing. The Lakers finally have good options at center with Dwight Howard coming back after a one-year absence.
Now there are a few questions, but I’m guessing Lebron will just make these works;
#1 – Will the Lakers be too old?
With age comes wisdom, but also creaky old bodies that will break down over the season. The Lakers will rely a lot on Nunn, THT, and Monk, their 3 younger guys. Those older guys might experience injuries, which could doom the Lakers like it did in 2021.
#2 – How will Westbrook fit?
I hated the Westbrook move and I still do. I think that the Lakers should have tried to keep Caruso instead of doing this move. Westbrook is a wildcard, which isn’t a great thing. He can’t shoot, he takes stupid shots, sometimes he’s a ball hog, etc. The Lakers themselves didn’t guard Westbrook on the outside in the Bubble. When teams eventually do that again, that really hurts the spacing.
The Lakers have to figure out Westbrook’s role sooner rather than later because him playing well will dictate a lot of their success.
But I still think the Lakers will be good. They have a lot more shooting, so now it’s time for Lebron to (hopefully) kick back and relax. Let AD and Westbrook carry the load. But if the Lakers can remain healthy, they’re going to be the favorites in the West. Frank Vogel has been great in LA, so I think the Lakers are once again contenders.
Philadelphia 76ers – 51.5 Projected Wins
I don’t have a color for “Until they trade Ben Simmons,” but whatever that color is, this is the color the 76ers should be in my mind. Simmons is a liability and doesn’t fit with Joel Embiid. He has cut off communication with the franchise and everybody is in limbo. Doc Rivers and Joel Embiid threw him under the bus after Game 7 against the Hawks.
But Daryl Morey wants too much for Simmons, so this awkward situation will unfortunately bleed into 2022. Simmons needs to go, otherwise the 76ers can never contend with Brooklyn or Milwaukee. They can’t win with Simmons and this duo has run it’s course. It just won’t work in the playoffs.
It’s really that simple.
Utah Jazz – 51.5 Projected Wins
Again, I do think that Jazz can win this many games in the regular season. But they’re not contenders. Last season, their modern basketball approach was very good for only so long. Ball movement, 3-pointers galore, “elite” defense. That was the formula but the Jazz are the same team and that won’t work.
They don’t have any perimeter defenders, the biggest reason for their downfall last year. Hassan Whiteside if their backup center. They don’t have any cap wiggle room, so this flawed team is stuck the way it is unless they trade Ingles/Bogdanovic, which is unlikely to happen.
Mike Conley
Donovan Mitchell
Bojan Bogdanovic
Royce O’Neale
Rudy Gobert
Joe Ingles
Jordan Clarkson
George Niang
Jared Butler
Hassan Whiteside
This team will be good in the regular season. But that inability to guard on the perimeter will hurt them a lot again. If Quin Snyder doesn’t change anything like he did in the playoffs, that problem becomes a whole lot worse. The Jazz are stuck and they aren’t contenders, perhaps the worst place to be for an NBA team.
Milwaukee Bucks – 53.5 Projected Wins
I agree with this. The Bucks are of course the defending NBA champs and they are still good. They made some really nice under the radar moves to add depth and if Mike Budenholzer coaches like he did in the 2021 NBA Playoffs? The Bucks are set up for another title run. Now they just need the Nets to get hurt again.
The Bucks roster got better, even though they lost PJ Tucker, who was so good for the Bucks in the playoffs;
Jrue Holiday
Grayson Allen (until Donte DiVincenzo comes back)
Khris Middleton
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Brook Lopez
Bobby Portis
Rodney Hood
Semi Ojeleye
George Hill
Pat Connaughton
The Other Antetokounmpo
The Bucks are deep. The Bucks Big 3 is amazing and they should be excellent again in 2022. But the Bucks added a lot of depth. Getting Grayson Allen for nothing was a steal, so the the shooting guard position with DiVincenzo and Connaughton gets reinforced.
Lopez and Portis are solid options down low. If Roddey Hood can score like he did before the achilles injury, he’ll be great off the bench.
The Bucks got better this offseason and they should be well positioned to come close to defending their title.
Brooklyn Nets Tier (Ridiculously Good) – 54.5 Projected Wins
That’s right baby, they get their own tier. The Nets will easily win 60+ games if they remain healthy and at least 2/3 of their big 3 plays a night. They have a really good roster, a pretty good coach, but they are easily the most talented team in the league. They are going to run through everybody when healthy.
Just look at this. This is unfair;
James Harden
Kyrie Irving
Joe Harris
Kevin Durant
Blake Griffin
Nicolas Claxton
Bruce Brown
Cam Thomas (R)
Patty Mills
Day’Ron Sharpe (R)
I don’t need to tell you how good the Nets are, but I’ll do it anyway.
Kyrie Irving is incredibly crafty and turned in a 50-40-90 season last year. He’s still good, no matter if you don’t like his politics off the court. Kevin Durant isn’t human because he was incredible last year after coming off that achilles injury. James Harden is the most important member of the big 3 with his elite playmaking.
Then there’s the others;
-Joe Harris might not be able to shoot in the playoffs, but he was the NBA’s best 3-PT shooter in the regular season. Blake Griffin is a great small-ball center.
-With some muscle, Nicolas Claxton can be an elite two-way center.
-Bruce Brown is the Rover, feeding off of James Harden
-Patty Mills is better in the Olympics, but he’s another great scorer
-Day’Ron Sharpe is a rookie center with some potential
They lost Jeff Green. They lost Landry Shamet. They don’t have cap space. But guess what baby? This talent is unmatched.
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