Some Last Minute Thoughts on the NBA Trade Deadline
Things done at the last minute at never a good idea. That being said, here are some things to think about heading into tomorrow’s deadline.
Things done at the last minute usually don’t end up going well. Whether it be frantically trying to find Christmas gifts or gluing together some gaudy monstrosity the day before Mother’s Day, doing something in a short amount of time isn’t wise — especially in the NBA.
With the trade deadline just two days away, things are about to explode. We have climbed the roller coaster up until this point, and everybody is waiting for that eventual drop. While this trade deadline has been uncharacteristically dull, we all know things are going down in the coming days. Franchise-altering decisions will be made (or not made).
Here are some things to consider on trade deadline eve eve*.
*Happy trade deadline eve eve to all who celebrate!*
The Great Raptors Fire Sale
The Raptors remain the greatest mystery at the deadline. At first glance, Toronto’s 25-30 record indicates a middling team. And don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Raptors are very good. But, their net rating (0.5) indicates they should be better. A 14-18 record in close games is amongst the worst in the league. There’s a world where a few bounces going the other way has this Raptors team in the playoff picture.
But, anticipate a fire sale from north of the border. Toronto may be one of the only sellers on the market, and there will be no shortage of interested parties. The Raptors are filled with above average starters with lots of trade value. Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes are (likely) untouchable. Those two could be getting saved for the offseason in a potential Kevin Durant deal. Everybody else is on the table.
17 teams in the league are within five games of 0.500. The play-in tournament is an added reason for some mediocre teams to make big swings. That’s why standing pat at the deadline doesn’t make sense for the Raptors.
OG Anunoby is the hottest thing since sliced bread. Teams like Memphis, New Orleans, and New York are ready to throw heaven and earth to get the guy. Fred VanVleet is someone the Suns or Clippers are going to target. Gary Trent Jr. is another guard option for teams, albeit he has the lowest trade value of the three.
Both VanVleet and Trent are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer, which may impact their trade value. Still, doing nothing at the deadline would be a mistake. Now, there is still one question that we don’t know the answer to;
What does Masai Ujiri want?
Do the Raptors want to get a shit ton of picks and young, developmental guys? Or do they want more proven talent to not completely bottom out? It’s an interesting question. Obviously, the Raptors will have to take on a bad contract or two to get a lot of these deals done.
But Toronto doesn’t seem like a team that’s content with going through a deep rebuilding phase like Houston. I don’t think their franchise is interested in that, but I could be mistaken. It’ll be interesting to see what type of returns the Raptors get for all of their guys.
There’s a world where the Raptors look for more player-heavy deals, retool, and make the play-in tournament even after trading some of their core guys. The Raptors could view this as a reorganization, not a step back.
As of right now, it’s a buyer’s market. And Toronto seems like they’re going to be the only sellers. They’re going to have a lot of different trade offers for their top players. What they choose to do next and what direction they take is up to them.
Patience in New Orleans (Please? ? )
The last few weeks have not been kind to the New Orleans Pelicans. They’ve struggled while their two best players — Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson — have missed extended time with injuries. Ingram just came back to help New Orleans snap a ten-game losing streak. Williamson hasn’t played since January 4th.
On December 12th, the Pelicans were 18-8 and leading the Western Conference. Since then, this team has gone 10-19. Despite having lots of depth, the Pelicans have fallen apart. Their poor shooting and inconsistency have hurt them.
So, what should the Pelicans do at the deadline? New Orleans is a team loaded with assets and young players — the perfect formula for an aggressive trade-deadline team. The Pelicans have all their future first-rounders, plus multiple picks from the Lakers and Bucks.
Jaxson Hayes, Kira Lewis Jr, Dyson Daniels, and Herb Jones are all tantalizing young guys. Devonte’ Graham is another trade piece. GM David Griffin has a plethora of assets that they can combine into any trade imaginable. He can meet any demand set by another front office.
But should New Orleans do something at the deadline? Should they panic and make a hasty move that retroactively affects the franchise for years to come? Remember what we said about last-minute things and how they always sucked?
I don’t think it would be smart for the Pelicans to do anything at the deadline. Why? Well, when the trio of Ingram, McCollum, and Williamson are on the floor, New Orleans has a +19.5 net rating (100th percentile) with a 123.7 offensive rating (97th percentile) and a 104.1 defensive rating (99th percentile).
The numbers speak for themselves. This team is not losing because they’re missing pieces. They just haven’t been healthy. I get the urge to go after OG Anunoby. He’s the crown jewel of the deadline. The Pelicans have been one of the teams rumored to be going after the versatile forward. But, Anunoby doesn’t fit that well in New Orleans. If the Pelicans wanted to do anything at the deadline, they could add shooting that comes at a much more affordable price.
Another option could be trading Jonas Valanciunas. New Orleans has been significantly better with him off the floor (+7.0 net rating) than with him on (-3.0 net rating).
Now, is betting on the health of Zion Williamson a wise thing to do? Absolutely not. Williamson still doesn’t have a return date from his injury, and he just started running again. Williamson’s health issues have continued to rack up and the questions about his future are legitimate. But making a rash, big swing at the deadline will only serve to hurt New Orleans in the long run.
I’m not saying the Pels shouldn’t make a trade, but throwing 4+ first-rounders plus young guys at Anunoby doesn’t seem like the right thing to do. Even with Anunoby, that wouldn’t make the Pelicans a title contender.
I get that the second half of the season has been a letdown. But this team is young, and injuries happen. That’s an unfortunate part of the sport. Staying the course and trusting the process seems to be New Orleans’ best option at the deadline.
Who’s On Overpay Alert?
The play-in tournament is a ruse. It’s an excuse for some otherwise mediocre teams to swing stupid moves they think will help them. The Chicago Bulls traded Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. for Nikola Vucevic. Orlando probably has another first-rounder coming to them this season. Now, more than ever, middling teams are in a position to make dumb trades. And I love it.
Again, there are 17 teams within five games of 0.500 right now. That’s unheard of for the start of February. The league is rarely this condensed. So, which teams are on overpay alert?
Well, I think the Pelicans are a good place to start. Like I said before, they have all the assets and picks to be an aggressive team at the deadline. Doing so would be unwise, but they’re in the OG Anunoby sweepstakes for a reason.
Memphis is another up-and-coming Western Conference team that has been sliding as of late. Unlike New Orleans, however, Anunoby is a perfect fit for them. And, more than anything, I trust Memphis’ front office to make the right call. Time and time again, we’ve seen them make excellent drafting decisions (Bane, Aldama, Tillman, etc.).
That doesn’t make them immune to bad decisions, but I trust them more than just about any front office in basketball. They’ve earned it.
Phoenix has all of their first and second-round picks until 2029. They managed to contend for two years without swinging a big trade. And they’ve survived a prolonged stretch without Devin Booker, who is likely to return tonight against the Nets.
New owner Mat Ishbia is taking over, and he could be looking to make a splash immediately. Phoenix already tried to involve Chris Paul in a Kyrie Irving trade, so they’re clearly looking for a point guard. Now, the Suns have their eyes locked on Fred VanVleet. Do the Suns get super desperate and trade too much for VanVleet, who isn’t that much of a game-changer?
There is a world where the Suns don’t do too much at the deadline, — other than moving a disgruntled Jae Crowder — and just save up for the potential Durant sweepstakes this summer. Durant’s future with Brooklyn could make teams hesitant to trade lots of capital right now.
Other teams who could get desperate are the Blazers (more on that later), Lakers (also more on that later), and Cavaliers. The teams listed above are still my top picks who are the most likely to do something stupid.
Rentals Paradise
Players heading into free agency this summer are always interesting trade targets. On the one hand, these players don’t have as much value, and it’s hard for them to screw everything up. But what happens when that player excels and really helps your team?
Do you give him a big contract now? Or do you have to let them go? Sometimes rentals work out, and sometimes they don’t. This deadline, there are lots of these guys available.
Minnesota has two of them. D’Angelo Russell hasn’t gotten the extension he was looking for in Minnesota. All signs point to him having a new team next season. He’s been inconsistent, turnover prone, and has played second fiddle to Anthony Edwards.
Naz Reid, however, is the real prize on this team. Without Towns, Reid has enjoyed more offensive responsibilities. He’s a versatile center who can handle and score from all three levels. But, with Gobert and Towns on the roster, he’s redundant when everybody is healthy.
Teams like Brooklyn and Philly are among the interested parties. Keeping Reid isn’t a bad idea for Minnesota, but are they willing to extend Reid and have three centers long-term? That doesn’t make much logistical sense.
Jae Crowder is on an expiring contract, although his trade value is lower than mine at this point. Another big name hitting free agency this summer is Christian Wood. Dallas now has two players set to become free agents this summer.
Kyrie Irving will be their first priority (which is hilarious), but what about Wood? The Mavericks offered him a 2-year extension, but Wood wants a longer commitment. The February 9th deadline is the last day the Mavericks can extend Wood before he becomes a UFA. Assuming no extension comes at the eleventh and a half hour, trading Wood should be Dallas’ goal. This season is probably their best to win a title. It’s the season where Kyrie has the lowest odds of fucking everything up. So, getting whatever you can for Wood — who has been really good this season — seems like a good idea.
Harrison Barnes is entering the final year of his contract, but I don’t think the Kings should do anything at the deadline. Not messing with this feel good team seems better than trying to improve…if that makes sense. Sacramento is far from perfect, but Barnes is one of their few veterans and losing him would effect the locker room. Don’t do anything stupid, McNair!
The last name I want to talk about is Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl is one of the better rim-protecting bigs in the league. He’s 27 and doesn’t exactly fit San Antonio’s new, rebuilding timeline. Some league executives think Poeltl will demand $20 million annually on the open market. Will the Spurs want to pay that price, or will some teams like Denver, Philly, or Boston swoop in and grab a piece that can help their title ambitions?
Expect a lot of rentals to be on the move this off-season. There are a lot more of them than the few I just named.
Will the Lakers Choose Lebron or the Future?
Lebron James may not say it with his words, but it’s clear to him and everybody with a set of eyes that the Lakers need help. Sure, they’re better than their horrid 2-10 start. And adding Rui Hachimura wasn’t a bad idea. But the Lakers are the 13th seed in the West for a reason. Not adding Kyrie Irving was a big miss, although it is somewhat reassuring knowing that Nets owner Joe Tsai didn’t want to send Irving there anyway.
One of the most revealing things during the Kyrie negotiations was the Lakers’ offer. For the first time, they showed a willingness to trade the most coveted assets in all of basketball: those two first-round picks in 2027 and 2029.
Rob Pelinka has said that the Lakers won’t trade those picks unless it gets them closer to title contention. Do the Lakers think any other player on the market gets them there? Who knows? But the Lakers cannot keep wasting Lebron James’ prime like this.
Doing nothing at the deadline (again) would be a crime. James is averaging 30.0 points per game and is on track to break the scoring record tonight against the Thunder. The Lakers have turned down trade packages involving Buddy Hield and Myles Turner. They traded multiple valuable role players for Russell Westbrook. DeMar DeRozan wanted to become a Laker, but he didn’t.
Time and time again, this front office has made baffling decision after baffling decision. However, the Lakers’ front office is making the right decision by being cautious with these first-rounders. Neither Lebron James nor Anthony Davis is guaranteed to be on the Lakers by the time it’s time to use those picks.
Lebron James doesn’t see it that way for obvious reasons. He wants to win one more title before he eventually retires (if that time ever comes). Pelinka and Jeanie Buss have been playing hardball with Lebron. Can they withstand the cries from James, Lakers nation, and the basketball world? Or will the play-in tournament be their destiny?
What Will Joe Cronin Do In Portland?
My Portland Trail Blazers have been better as of late, but they’re still far from competitive. The vision of building a championship contender around Damian Lillard, who has won back-to-back Western Conference player of the week awards, remains intact.
Portland did some good things this off-season. The trade for Jerami Grant has been a home run. Gary Payton II has shown flashes of the defensive versatility he can offer, although he’s been hurt for most of the year. And Shaedon Sharpe continues to defy gravity on a nightly basis. There are pieces here.
But this team is far from making a meaningful playing run. This roster isn’t bad per se, but Chauncey Billups’ vision of a switchable, tenacious defense isn’t achievable right now. The biggest roadblock standing in the way of that is Jusuf Nurkic.
Injuries have slowed big Nurk down in recent years, but this season it’s clear he’s lost a step. Even his (somewhat) reinvigorated 3-PT jump shot can’t hide his slow lateral movement and wavering effort and intensity. Drew Eubanks, who is much smaller, offers much more energy and effort. While Eubanks has piss and vinegar running through his veins, Nurkic has molasses.
Nurkic is out through the All-Star Break with a “calf injury,” so I think the writing is on the wall for a trade. That new $70 million dollar extension Nurkic signed this offseason does make him difficult to trade, however. But getting something for Nurkic is better than nothing.
Jakob Poeltl is the only center Portland should be after. He’s 7’1″, a good rim protector, and a solid rebounder. Other than him, there aren’t many good options for the Blazers. Even if Poeltl ends up being a rental, I think he’s worth it. Joe Cronin should be on the phones with the Spurs RIGHT NOW!
Josh Hart is another interesting piece. His energy, driving ability, and rebounding are great traits. He fits into the style that Chauncey Billups wants to play. But his inability/outright avoidance of the 3-PT line are driving me insane.
Hart has lost confidence in his shot, and defenses know it. Over his last seven games, the former Villanova Wildcat is just 3/19 from beyond the arc. Yikes. Trading Hart could free minutes for Nassir Little, who has been great at times this season. Still, Hart is a team-friendly contract and since Shaedon Sharpe plays defense like he’s blindfolded, I don’t think you can let go of Hart.
A combination of Sharpe’s shooting and Hart’s drive and defense would be the perfect player for Portland. Unfortunately, cloning technology is a few years behind for that to work. I don’t love Hart, but you kind of have to keep him.
The issue of a small backcourt also holds Portland back, although there is no world where they’re trading Anfernee Simons anytime soon. Still, that issue will always hamper Portland. There’s a reason why the McCollum partnership ended up being a failure.
Could the Blazers package Simons and Sharpe plus some of the picks they have for OG Anunoby? That could mean you don’t have to extend Grant this summer (but they still should, I love Jerami). The Blazers were shopping the 7th pick for Anunoby during the draft, but the Raptors didn’t oblige.
That’s the only world where I would agree to trade Simons. Either Anunoby or Durant.
Portland’s Plan for World Domination
My rambling aside, what should the Blazers do at the deadline. And, looking a little further, what will the offseason look like? I have already accepted that we may not make the playoffs this season. If we don’t, we get to use our draft pick in what is shaping up to be a pretty deep draft class*. I’m prepared for every outcome, but here’s what I want to see;
*Or we could make the pick unprotected, giving us the ability to use all of our future first-round picks. Neil Olshey really handicapped us with that Larry Nance Jr. trade. To trade one of our firsts right now (without making the pick unprotected), the Blazers and the receiving team would need to include language specifying the pick would be conveyed two years after the Bulls received the pick owed to them.
So if the Blazers made the playoffs this season, the Bulls would get Portland’s 2023 pick, and the other team would get the 2025. However, if the Blazers were to make the postseason every year through 2028, language would have to be included that says the pick would turn into a second-round pick or the obligation would cease. That’s because teams can only deal picks through 2029 right now. But, since Portland (likely) doesn’t have a trade in mind, I doubt they’ll do something like that.*
*If the Blazers are able to lift protections on their first owed to the Bulls, they could then trade picks in 2025, 2027, and 2029, plus swaps in 2024, 2026, and 2028.*
*TLDR: Neil Olshey is dumb and the Blazers can’t trade any of their picks*
- Trade Nurkic
This one needs to be done. For all the reasons I listed above, Nurkic is holding back Chauncey’s vision. When Nurkic has been out for the past couple of games, the defense has shown signs of being lively and active. I may not love Chauncey, but you can throw him a bone here. Nurkic was a vital part of this team for years, but like McCollum, you have to leave emotion at the door and decide what’s best for the team.
Blazers Receive: Jakob Poeltl
Spurs Receive: Jusuf Nurkic / 2024 2nd-Round Pick via ATL
- Extend Grant
The Blazers have already offered Jerami Grant a 4-year extension worth $112 million. Grant has never found a true home in the league and has taken a liking to Portland. He will likely wait until after the season before making a decision. He has until June 30th to accept the deal.
While you don’t want to overpay for Grant, he’s proven to be a great third option for this team. He can score off the catch or off the dribble. Even as his 3-PT shoot has cooled off, the Blazers need him. Desperately.
EXTEND THE MAN
- Jared Vanderbilt???
A few days ago, Shams reported that the Blazers were in the running to acquire Jared Vanderbilt. After briefly passing out in a fit of happiness and elation, I thought to myself, “what would we give up in a trade like that?”
Since the Blazers can’t really trade one of their first-round picks (see above), it’s hard for them to make this trade. Utah has Walker Kessler, so there’s no point in them acquiring Nurkic. The Jazz’s roster has 16 players on it, so any deal not involving picks is tough for them to do because they’ll have to cut people to make something work.
I haven’t heard much steam since Shams reported that, and I don’t know if any deal could be done. Vanderbilt would be the perfect player for what Portland is trying to do going forward, but I don’t know if he’s a realistic option, unfortunately.
But one can dream……….
The Utah Jazz are Content With Anything
I have been a fan of what the Utah Jazz have been doing this season. While I thought they would be in the running for Victor Wembanyama, Utah went right ahead and became the most surprising story of the year.
Outside of Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and Ochai Agbaji, everybody is on the table for Utah. Danny Ainge could reap even more rewards at the deadline after already receiving a king’s ransom for Rudy Gobert.
Malik Beasley, the aforementioned Vanderbilt, Mike Conley, Clarkson, and Olynyk are all names I’ve seen thrown out in rumors and mock trades. The Jazz could trade some of those guys or just keep them. There’s no harm in what the Jazz have done this season.
They have unprotected picks from Minnesota spanning the decade. This new phase of theirs can take as long as they need it to. I imagine Ainge will make some trades at the deadline. And I’m not just saying that because he loves to make trades, but it makes sense.
Kessler has been getting more and more minutes, and Olynyk has dealt with injuries. Olynyk has 1.5 years left on his contract, and his 2024 salary is non-guaranteed. Vanderbilt may be Utah’s best trade asset. It’s either him or the sharp-shooting Beasley.
As for Conley, I think it would be smarter for the Jazz to keep him, actually. While Conley fits on most contenders and still offers stout defense, I think he wants to stay in Utah. He seems content with being there for this new era of Jazz basketball, even if it doesn’t involve as much winning.
Conley is the elder statesman in the locker room and has helped some of the young guys develop this season. Leaders are few and far between in the NBA, but Conley is most definitely one of them.
Even if the Jazz make multiple trades, bottoming out is still out of the equation for them. Utah holds the tenth and final seed in the Western Conference. A play-in birth is very much possible, which was a crazy thing to say in October.
Whatever direction Utah chooses to go in, I’m sure they’ll find success. They already have a lot of draft capital, and more could be on the way. Opposing GMs beware, you may want to hang up the phone if Danny Ainge comes calling.
What are your predictions for tomorrow’s trade deadline? Leave a comment down below!
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