The Great Celtics Roller Coaster has Miami on their Heels
A few days ago, the Miami Heat had the Celtics dead to rights. Now, Boston has come back to life, and there’s trouble in South Beach.
A couple days ago, the entire sports world declared the Boston Celtics dead. The eighth-seeded Miami Heat were running circles around them in every way. Rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla was getting outclassed, and questions swirled about Boston’s future. I wrote 1,774 words about this dead, broken team.
Trying to watch the Celtics in the first three games of this series was like trying to watch Skyler sing happy birthday to Ted in Breaking Bad. Excruciatingly painful and cringe-inducing. The type of stuff that makes your eyes bleed. A Nuggets v. Heat Finals seemed all but inevitable and is still the likely outcome.
But, after two straight wins, the Celtics have put Miami on their heels. They’ve put on their big boy pants and are (finally) playing to their strengths and attacking. Get your 2004 Red Sox nostalgia, everybody, because we’ve got ourselves a series.
So, What’s Changed?
It wasn’t just that the Celtics were down 0-3 to a much less talented Miami Heat team. Most of Miami’s success boiled down to insane shooting, overperforming role players, and the Celtics rolling over. It was more than losing three straight games — it was how Boston was underperforming that was so jarring.
Of course, you could say that the series has shifted because some of Miami’s irregularities have gone away. Over the first three games, the Heat shot 47.8% from beyond the arc. In the last two games, that number is down to 31%. Boston has been much more keyed in and aggressive on defense. Miami’s 3-PT volume has also declined as the Celtics have climbed back in this series.
Miami’s shooting has been the driving force to their Cinderella run this postseason. Expected effective field goal percentage is a stat from second spectrum that takes into account shot location, defender distance, and shooter identity. It’s basically an estimator for how well you should be shooting based on the shots you’re taking.
This postseason, the Heat have been the kings of outperforming their expected eFG%. They have four of the six “best” shot-making games this postseason, with two coming in this series. In game three, Miami outperformed their expected eFG% by 17%! They outperformed it by 13.5% in game one! A lot of their success has been hitting tough shots and guys who normally aren’t great shooters (hey there, Caleb Martin) suddenly becoming Ray Allen.
Of course, the same could be said about the Celtics. After being unable to hit the side of a barn, Boston has made 42.3% of their triples in their two wins. Both sides have benefited from these extreme shooting results. It’s impossible to know if Miami will regain their form or if the Celtics will continue this hot shooting.
What I do know is that Boston’s turnaround goes beyond shooting variance. Thanks to some words from beloved assistant coach Matt Reynolds, a very well-respected video coordinator, the Celtics have become re-focused and re-energized. In the morning before game four, Reynolds spoke for a mere 35-45 seconds. His words can be boiled down to this;
“Don’t ruin the season off a bad week”
On defense, the Celtics have found success going small with Derrick White. Miami has turned the ball over 32 times over the past two games. That has led to easy opportunities against a non-set defense. In game five, Adebayo and Butler were non factors. The elite defense that carried them last season finally reappeared after a concerning hiatus.
Offensively, the Celtics are playing with more pace and purpose. The ball is moving more from side to side. Boston is relentlessly attacking Miami’s weak points, something they were reluctant to do earlier in the series. It’s not hyperbole to call the team we’ve seen over the past two games totally different from the one we saw from the first three games.
Now, the Celtics aren’t out of the woods yet. You know Jimmy Butler won’t be pulling any punches in game six, which probably serves as Miami’s best chance to close this series out. And I’m sure it will be hard for Bam Adebayo to play any worse than he’s been playing. Getting Gabe Vincent will cut down on the Lowry minutes and put another capable shooter in the rotation.
But, I’m sure it’s a little worrying for coach Spoelstra and co. that they’ve lost by a combined 30 points when the Celtics are actually trying.
The Comparison Everyone Wants to Make
There have been 150 instances of a team falling behind 3-0 in a series in NBA history. No team has ever recovered from such a deficit and only three teams have ever forced a game 7. Is this weird, inconsistent, and frustrating Celtics going to be the first team to pull it off? It would be perfectly on brand for them, if we’re being honest.
However, the Celtics wouldn’t be the first Boston sports team to come from a 3-0 series deficit. Heck, they wouldn’t even be close to the most memorable. That spot belongs to the 2004 Red Sox, who came back to beat the rival Yankees and eventually won the World Series.
Now, are there parallels between these two comebacks? Kind of. The Celtics and Heat are pretty good rivals, although it’s hard to argue any sports rivalry touches the intensity of Red Sox/Yankees, especially in the early-mid 2000s.
The Celtics have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Red Sox had Ortiz and Ramirez. New York had Jeter and A-Rod. Ortiz has Tatum and Brown in the clutch department, and I think Jimmy Butler makes up the assholeness of A-Rod, but in a good way.
Still, there are a lot of differences between these two series. The Red Sox were the less talented team that scrapped their way to a comeback. Meanwhile, the Celtics had the clear advantage against Miami and insisted on making things as difficult as possible for themselves.
While the Red Sox needed miracles and extra innings to complete their comeback, the Celtics have just been more focused. A little more anti-climactic when you put it like that. Still, there are a few more commonalities to think about.
The Yankees collapsed as soon as the Sox started showing signs of life. A similar thing could be happening with Miami, who have looked rattled since Reynold’s speech. Miami has looked outmatched when the Celtics have been dialed in. That Red Sox comeback feels more miraculous than this Celtics one. Still, it’s worth noting that both Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart took a page from Kevin Millar before game four. “Don’t let us win one.”
Well, the Heat have done one worse: they’ve let the Celtics win two.
Can the Celtics Actually Do It?
As soon as the Celtics won game five, the idea of them winning this series became a plausible reality in my mind. Aside from the tactical and schematic improvements the Celtics have made, they seem to play at their best when their backs are against the wall. One could wonder why they ever let it get to that point in the first place, but let’s not go there today.
Now, what are the odds that this extremely inconsistent team loses all its momentum and lays an egg on the road? In my estimation, pretty high! This Celtics team is the epitome of ebbs and flows. At their best, they’ve invincible. It’s just that their best doesn’t show up nearly as much as it should.
If you’re Miami, you’re trying to calm yourself down. You’re hoping that the Celtics don’t blitz you as they did in game five, and you can remain close throughout the game. We know about Boston’s shortcomings late in games and how good Jimmy Butler gets down the stretch. If it’s a tied game with five minutes left, it will be a miracle if Miami loses.
Still, how reliable is Miami’s game plan? Again, their Cinderella run hasn’t been predicated on their stars doing all the work. Jimmy Butler has been merely human over these past few games. Bam Adebayo is doing his best Rashard Lewis impression. As I’m writing this, I think he threw another errant pass right to Marcus Smart.
The variance of shooting both teams displayed makes it almost impossible to make a prediction. There’s a world where the Heat shoot 19/35 from beyond the arc like they did in game three. Or maybe the Celtics shoot 16/39 again. Who knows?
What I do know is that game six will likely be very close. Boston has the advantage in star power, but it’s hard to find a more trustworthy, reliable closer than Jimmy Butler. With Malcolm Brogdon dealing with an arm injury, Miami’s role players will continue to have an edge. While Mazzulla’s bench is somewhat thin, Erik Spoelstra can just throw Alex Highsmith out there for 36 minutes and not bat an eye.
If Miami loses game six, I don’t see a world where they win the series. Boston will be at their most vulnerable in game six, so this is the Heat’s best chance to advance to the Finals. In this fascinating battle between two zombified teams, picking a winner is nearly impossible.
Still, nothing beats momentum in the playoffs. And if the Celtics have come this far, I’m willing to bet they’re not going down without a fight. As unlikely as it seemed a few days ago — when we were preparing for a Heat/Nuggets Finals — the Celtics are trying to become the first time in 151 tries to come back from a 0-3 deficit. And with the way things are going, they just might do it.
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