The Hoopnotions Notebook: How Game 1 Losers Can Rebound
In this addition of the Hoopnotions Notebook, I’ll talk about how every team that lost game one can rebound the rest of the way.
Every first round series is underway. We’ve seen close contests, blowouts, injuries, and fantastic performances. On this edition of the Hoopnotions Notebook, I’ll be focusing on each team that lost game one of their respective series.
What can these teams do better? What went wrong in Game 1? Where can they improve? That’s what I’ll be looking to find today.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are my pick to win it all. They are the best, most complete team in the league. Entering the playoffs, they were finally at full strength and ready to pursue their second title in three years. A series against the inconsistent, sleepwalking Miami Heat should have been drama free.
Instead, Giannis got hurt less than eight minutes into the first quarter, and everything fell apart. After a hard fall, the Greek Freak limped around for a few more minutes before being ruled out with a lower back contusion. Even with Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee looked sluggish out of the gates. Fiserv Forum was quiet for most of the night as Miami cruised to a 1-0 series lead.
There are obviously a few caveats here. Not having the best player in the world puts you at a disadvantage. Mike Budenholzer said that Giannis’s x-rays came back “clean,” so all signs point to him returning for what now becomes a pivotal Game 2.
Still, the Bucks have to go back to the drawing board. The way they played in Game 1, Giannis or not, will have to change for them to regain control of this series. Milwaukee’s defense, in particular was awful.
Do I expect the Heat to shoot 15/25 from beyond the arc throughout this series? No. That type of shooting performance is even more unlikely with Tyler Herro’s hand injury. Milwaukee’s paint defense was much more concerning, however. Miami shot 14/17 in the restricted area and 31/47 (66%) in the paint overall.
Jimmy Butler, in particular, had his way against anybody the Bucks threw at him. Butler beat the initial defender off the dribble time and time again, leading to easy looks for him and his teammates. I don’t think it’s a good idea for 36-year-old Wesley Matthews to be guarding Butler anymore.
However, I don’t think the Bucks should be panicking. The Bucks don’t play Game 2 until Wednesday, giving Giannis plenty of time to rest and recover. Milwaukee’s defense will certainly be better with the best help defender in the league roaming the baseline.
Milwaukee got punched in the mouth without their best player. It happens. But, nothing from game one suggests that the Bucks are in danger of being upset. Not yet, at least.
(Let’s hope I didn’t jinx anything)
Atlanta Hawks
Final Score: Celtics 112 – Hawks 99
The final score of this game didn’t underscore how helpless the Hawks are. In the first half, Boston exerted their will on Atlanta, flexing their might. Atlanta couldn’t keep up with the smaller Celtics, and they didn’t have a matchup for either Tatum or Brown on the wing.
Even though the Hawks found their way back into the game in the second half, that was more due to Boston taking their foot off the gas than anything Atlanta did. The Hawks can still make this a series. I don’t think they’re doomed per se, but that 30 point halftime deficit is hard to erase from your head.
While the Celtics couldn’t miss from downtown, the Hawks missed 24 of their 29 attempts. To upset the Heat, Atlanta bullied them on the boards. That needed to happen again against the Celtics for them to stand a chance, but it didn’t. Atlanta got outrebounded 58-45 and managed just 12 second-chance points.
Again, the series is far from over. But Game 1 was a statement from the Celtics, who put “Unfinished Business” on the t-shirts they gave to their fans. A confirmation that they’re up here…
While the Hawks are down here.
The Hawks need a lot for them to go right to even win one game in this series, much less the entire thing. While the Hawks are talented, they don’t have the same depth and togetherness to overcome Boston’s tsunami of superiority. Unless Boston falls asleep at the wheel, a series upset seems impossible.
At the very least, you’re hoping Trae Young and co. can keep things competitive. And even that seems like a tall order.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets made it clear that they didn’t want Joel Embiid to beat them. The Nets doubled Embiid every time he touched the ball, forcing him to give it up. Even though Embiid still finished with 26 points, this was the hill head coach Jacque Vaughn was ready to die on.
Philly helped Vaughn choose his casket in game one. Brooklyn’s plan to sell out to Embiid backfired. The 76ers made a playoff franchise-record 21 3s, grabbed nearly 30 percent of their 47 missed shots, and easily moved the ball through the Nets’ defensive rotations.
Joel Embiid doesn’t always make the best decisions in the face of pressure. In Game 1, much to the dismay of the Nets, he made them pay dearly for sending extra defenders. Even though the Nets had a 65.0 efG%, the highest ever in a playoff loss, and 30 points from Mikal Bridges, the 76ers handled things throughout.
Now, pressuring Embiid isn’t the wrong idea. Brooklyn doesn’t have the size to deal with Embiid individually, but rather the length to be disruptive. However, there were too many ill-fated and stupid double teams like this one;
Coming into this series, one of the few advantages the Nets had was in the shooting department. If they sell out to Embiid and give the 76ers wide-open looks like the one above, that advantage is gone. They’ll have to be a little more tactical with how they decide to slow down Embiid (zone?).
If Brooklyn can’t find a way to control Embiid, this series will be over quickly. They’ll have to be more random in their attack to give themselves a chance in this series. But, in all honesty, I don’t think the Nets have the personnel to overcome this overwhelming Philly unit.
Cleveland Cavaliers
There are two ways to look at Cleveland’s frustrating game one loss at home to the Knicks. Consider one of them to be optimistic and the other one pessimistic. Let’s start with the latter.
For almost the entire game, the Knicks outplayed Cleveland. Despite a hobbled Julius Randle and three first-half fouls on Jalen Brunson, the Cavaliers trailed for most of the contest. Outside of a masterful performance from Donovan Mitchell, nobody else could score. The second unit was a disaster.
And the rebounding? Oh, god, don’t get me started. Despite having Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Knicks collected 17 offensive rebounds, each one becoming more demoralizing. New York had 23-second chance points, including 11 in the fourth quarter alone. Again, the Knicks were flat-out the better team in this game.
The optimistic way of looking at things is that even with all that, Cleveland lost by just four. Even with Evan Mobley forgetting how to make layups and Cedi Osman (?) guarding Jalen Brunson down the stretch, the Cavs had a one-point lead with 2 minutes left. It was there for the taking.
The good news for the Cavs is that they know what they have to do better. For starters, I doubt Mobley and Allen have to control the defensive glass. Mitchell Robinson is a prolific offensive rebounder, yes, but I’m sure head coach J.B. Bickerstaff will be imploring his guys to box out and crash the glass. Mobley and Allen are at the tip of that spear.
Bickerstaff will also make everybody runs through the Mikan drill a few times. The Cavs were an abysmal 14/26 in the restricted area, leaving too many easy points off the table. Cleveland seemed to be waiting for foul calls at the rim, and none came. Finishing through contact is the other area where the Cavs know they have to improve.
If they do those two things — rebound better and make their layups — the series will tilt in their favor. That’s ignoring Cleveland’s disgraceful second unit. There isn’t a world where Caris LeVert or (gags) Ricky Rubio can turn the tide. New York’s reserves were superb in game one, and that will continue throughout this series.
Still, the Cavs have to feel good that they only lost game 1 by four points after playing so terribly. The only place for them to go from here is up.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Everybody expected the Timberwolves to be frisky and challenge Denver in this series. Instead, the Nuggets made a statement game one victory at home. Not only did they blow Minnesota out, the T-Wolves couldn’t score against a team that (supposedly) couldn’t defend. Minnesota managed just 80 points on 37% shooting in the series opener.
KAT and Edwards combined to shoot 11/30 from the field. It was a demoralizing, lifeless loss. After dominating OKC in a do-or-die play-in game, you would’ve thought this team would come out with some fight. Send a message that the T-Wolves wouldn’t roll over and make it easy for the top-seeded Nuggets. Instead, the only fighting that happened was when Kyle Anderson and Christian Braun got into it.
The Nuggets were the more physical and poised team. The Timberwolves couldn’t stop Jokic on the other end, either. Nothing went right for Minnesota in this game, which isn’t necessarily the end of the world. On the one hand, I’m sure this isn’t how Minnesota wanted to start this series (duh).
But it’ll be easy for Chris Finch and his guys to flush this game away and regroup for Game 2 on Wednesday. By then, Minnesota will have some counters to what Denver threw at them in this game. After the game, Towns said that “They [Denver] had a long week preparing for us, and they got ready, and you could tell on the court they knew our plays and knew what they’re doing.”
Without Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid, an uphill battle was to be expected for the Timberwolves. However, I don’t think what happened in game one will be the norm. If Minnesota comes out more focused and prepared, they can take advantage of Denver’s vulnerable defense and make this series somewhat more interesting.
Memphis Grizzlies
I predicted that the two-seeded Grizzlies would beat the Lakers in 7 games. In other words, things wouldn’t be easy. After game one, I’m feeling much less confident in my prediction. It wasn’t that the Grizzlies lost at home despite going 35-6 at FedEx Forum during the regular season. It was the way they lost.
I’m sure some Grizzlies fans will point to Ja Morant’s injury and hope for the same immunity I gave Milwaukee. And while it’s true that the whole course of the game (and series, potentially) changed when Morant awkwardly landed on his hand, the Grizzlies trailed 113-112 with 3:11 left. This game was winnable, to say the least.
Jaren Jackson Jr. stayed out of foul trouble and played a fantastic game. In the second quarter, the Grizzlies forced eight Lakers turnovers and scored 38 points to take the lead at the break. But, in addition to Morant exiting early, the Grizzlies were outplayed by…
Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves? Yikes.
Both Lebron and AD weren’t leading the charge for the Lakers scoring-wise. Even though Davis was incredible on the defensive end, his shoulder injury at the end of the first half was likely limiting what he could do offensively. Lebron didn’t look engaged for most of the night and seemed hesitant to go at Dillon Brooks.
So, the Lakers leaned heavily on Reaves and Hachimura to carry the load. And the Grizzlies couldn’t stop either of them. Reaves notched 14 points in the 4th quarter, and Hachimura finished with a team-high 29. Yikes…again.
We knew that the Lakers had the two best players entering this series. But if those guys weren’t even playing that well offensively and the Grizzlies still lost, the alarm bells should be blaring. Add in the idea of playing game two and beyond without Morant, and now real panic should set in.
So, other than praying that Morant’s hand injury isn’t too severe, how can the Grizzlies get back in this series? Well, they need their bench unit to outplay the Lakers’. That obviously didn’t happen in this game, but it needs to be going forward. The Lakers may have the star power advantage, but to win this series, the production from the 3rd-8th guys must be in favor of the Grizzlies.
Taylor Jenkins’ bench seemed thin without Clarke or Adams in Game 1. He’ll need to rely on Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard a lot in this series (and sub in John Konchar!). Whoever wins the battle of second units will likely win this series.
Getting a better shooting night from Desmond Bane (6/18) would also be helpful for Memphis. But, all things considered, a lot went right for Memphis. JJJ miraculously managed to avoid foul trouble against a Lakers team that thrives at drawing fouls. Lebron James wasn’t great by any measure, and Anthony Davis couldn’t move his arm (his words, not mine).
And the Grizzlies still lost at a place they had been unbeatable in throughout the regular season. Did I mention that it’s time to panic yet?
Golden State Warriors
Game 1 between the Warriors and Kings was everything we could have hoped for. It was a close, offensive shootout with one of the most electric atmospheres I’ve ever witnessed. Despite the loss, the Warriors were nonchalant about things after the game. While the Kings are playoff virgins, the Warriors have been passed around the dorm room, so to speak.
“I love this s—,” Jordan Poole said, who lit up talking about the binging of film in the postseason. Curry added that this is what the Warriors live for. Game 1s of any series is a feeling out process. You jab somewhere and see what the opponent does to counter it. You get jabbed at, and your opponent evaluates, too.
Steve Kerr and the Warriors have a few ways to look at how they played in Game 1 of this series. There were a lot of variables, like Andrew Wiggins’ playing time after missing two months. The same goes for Gary Payton, who probably isn’t all the way back from his core injury.
Sacramento grabbed 17 offensive rebounds. The likes of Alex Len and Trey Lyles (yes, you read that right) outhustled Golden State and played pivotal roles off the bench. Golden State chucked up 50 3-pointers, including 19 of them in the final frame. Probably need to dial back on that a little.
Road losses are familiar for this Warriors team. Their road struggles were one of the weirdest wrinkles of the whole NBA season. The Warriors have lost the first road game in a series 11 times under Kerr. They won Game 2 eight of the previous 10 times.
That would be one way of evaluating the loss. Think about ways to improve around the margins, theorize about ways to slow down Fox (don’t foul!), and head into game two. But there’s a simpler way of evaluating things.
Steph Curry played 37 minutes in Game 1. Curry has never been a player to play 45 minutes and will his team to victory like prime Lebron James. That certainly won’t be the case at this stage of his career. But you can’t understate how much the Warriors need Curry on the floor.
The Warriors were plus-11 in Curry’s minutes on Saturday. They were minus-14 in the 10:35 he was off the floor. When Curry exited the game late in the third quarter, the Kings turned an eight-point deficit into a one-point lead entering the fourth and never looked back. All while Curry looked helplessly from the bench.
Is there a guarantee that the Warriors would’ve won this game if Curry had played 2-3 more minutes? Not at all. But playing Curry for 40 minutes might be needed to get by this talented Kings team and anybody else in the playoffs. The Warriors aren’t as deep or talented as they have been in years past. They don’t have the luxury of dictating how much they can play Steph.
Going down 0-2 isn’t an option. Not even the battle-tested Warriors want to put themselves in that position. To win game 2, playing Steph Curry a little more than they’re used to or what they’re comfortable with might be the extra push that the Warriors need to even the series.
Starting Andrew Wiggins, who was fantastic in Game 1, should be done ASAP. Donte DiVincenzo struggled defensively against De’Aaron Fox. There’s a reason both Payton and Wiggins were on the court late instead of DiVincenzo. Payton and Wiggins will need to try and bottle Fox to have a chance to even and potentially win this series.
A lot of times, it takes a lot of adjustments to try and win a playoff game. For the Warriors, tweaks are definitely needed. But their best remedy for success is to probably use their ‘get out of jail’ free card. Use their ultimate equalizer.
Unleash Stephen Curry.
Phoenix Suns
With the news that Paul George would likely miss the entirety of this first-round series with a knee injury, I had a few reactions. First, I bemoaned the fact that we would lose a potential Kawhi/George vs. Booker/Durant matchup. Oh well. Second, I all but declared the Clippers dead.
The Suns were the better team coming into this series, and without George, it didn’t look like the Clippers stood a chance. Phoenix was yet to lose a game with KD in the lineup. Even with their questionable depth, I figured Phoenix would be able to win this series without much of a fight.
Instead, the Clippers stole game one on the road from the Suns because they…wanted it more? That’s honestly the best way I can describe this game. Phoenix started off cold from the field, and when it looked like they had pulled away in the third quarter, the Clippers bullied them on the offensive boards in the fourth quarter. A few key shots from Powell here and Kawhi there, and boom, you’ve got yourself an upset!
Despite a 3/19 shooting performance from Russell Westbrook, the Suns still managed to lose this game. That’s with a near triple-double from Kevin Durant, Devin Booker turning into prime Gary Payton on defense, and 22 points from Torrey Craig. No dice.
The most glaring issue in this loss was that iffy second unit. This was Phoenix’s biggest weakness entering the playoffs, and it showed in this game. Head coach Monty Williams essentially had a six-man rotation in this game. He only played one reserve (Landry Shamet) for over 10 minutes. Shamet, Okogie, Wainright, and Biyombo each had a plus/minus worse than -10! It’s hard to win games like that.
Meanwhile, the Clippers got great production from Mason Plumlee (who gutted through an ugly-looking pinky injury) and Norman Powell. All four of Ty Lue’s reserves had a plus/minus better than +11! That was the difference in this game.
It’s not like the Suns played terribly, but you felt they could have asserted themselves more. Aside from that 15-0 run in the 3rd quarter, the Suns couldn’t gain separation. That spurt gave Phoenix a nine-point lead and some momentum for the first time all night. What followed was a 13-4 Clippers run against mostly Suns reserves to tie the game entering the fourth. The only starter on the floor to end the 3rd quarter was Booker. And down the stretch, Westbrook and the Clippers made all the plays that the Suns couldn’t.
That lack of a second unit won’t go away throughout this series. If you’re Monty Williams, you’re hoping that Shamet or Terrence Ross can hit some threes to give your starters some rest. Durant playing 44 minutes doesn’t seem sustainable throughout the postseason. But, the Suns have to have at least two starters on the floor to be successful. They can’t have those letdowns — even if it means less rest for everybody.
Again, it didn’t feel like the Suns blew chunks over this game. I mean, Chris Paul was 2/8 from the field and Deandre Ayton took 16 field goal attempts, but most of Phoenix’s problems stem from a lack of chemistry. They’re still figuring out how to play with each other. I’m sure they won’t have Kevin Durant stand and watch crunch time possessions from 30 feet out again.
Even though the Clippers are far from a cohesive unit, the Suns are even less connected. If they can’t contain Kawhi or control the boards, this series will be much more fun than originally thought, even with Paul George sidelined. And I’m all for that.
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