The Hoopnotions Notebook: The Final Straw in Embiid v. Jokic
Throughout the season, the debate for league MVP between Embiid and Jokic was contentious. After these playoffs, the debate seems outdated.
In an era of culture wars and stupid debates, it was hard to find something stupider than the Joel Embiid vs. Nikola Jokic MVP debate. For weeks and weeks throughout the regular season, NBA fans obsessed over the race in the worst ways possible. Embiid ended up winning because it was “racist” to vote for Jokic…among other things. It’s safe to say things got a little out of hand. Nobody could even enjoy the greatness unfolding in front of them.
But, with Joel Embiid once again flaming out of the postseason while Jokic continues to thrive on the biggest stage, is there really room for any more debate about who’s the better player?
PoStSeaSon SuCCesS!!!
Of all the stupid narratives that emerged during this mind-numbing debate, my least favorite involved postseason reputation. I don’t think I’m a genius for saying that the postseason has nothing to do with the regular season MVP award. But, of course, the issue became a sticking point. People had a problem giving Nikola Jokic a third straight MVP because he had never made it to the Finals;
The sentiments shared by Stephen A. Smith were almost universally agreed upon…for some reason. Again, to reiterate, a player’s resume in the postseason shouldn’t affect their candidacy for a regular season event. And not only is SAS leaving out a lot of context about Jokic’s postseason history, this paints Embiid as some sort of postseason demigod. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Lest we forget that Joel Embiid has *still* not made it past the second round of the postseason. Jokic has done so twice. Even before this postseason kicked off, Jokic was the better playoff performer. Time and time again, Embiid hadn’t been reliable in the postseason when it mattered most. That became evidently clear with his 5/18 game 7 stinker against the Celtics, his kryptonite.
The side-by-side numbers don’t even look remotely close;
| Nikola Jokic in the Playoffs | Joel Embiid in the Playoffs |
| 59 games | 53 games |
| 27.2 points | 24.0 points |
| 11.7 rebounds | 10.9 rebounds |
| 7.0 assists | 2.8 assists |
| 29.0 PER | 21.6 PER |
| 61.1% TS | 57.9% TS |
| 10.3 BPM | 3.8 BPM |
| .228 win shares per 48 | .143 win shares per 48 |
While the Joker consistently raises his game in the postseason, Embiid’s production falls. You can blame that on injuries all you want, but you can’t clamor for the MVP award and then shrivel up in the playoffs. That’s not how that works.
And it’s not just that Embiid has struggled in the playoffs. He hasn’t had any big, defining games. Meanwhile, Jokic and just about every other star in the league has had some of those games. I really can’t remember any memorable Embiid postseason games off the top of my head. There aren’t any of those standout, signature games that come to mind.
Game score is a tool that takes into account a player’s box score and produces a single number to gauge the performance. In his career, Embiid has just five postseason games with a game score above 30. On the flip side, Jokic has 13 such games. The notion that Jokic is a poor playoff performer is a…well, poor one. You could argue that Jokic has done more in this one postseason than Embiid has done in his whole postseason career, and I wouldn’t argue with you.
While Embiid’s career is filled with missed opportunities, Jokic has never had a real path to the title. Injuries to his co-stars have always gotten in the way. And while Embiid has lost winnable series to the likes of the Hawks in 2021, Jokic has always faced teams that ended up winning it all or coming very close. The same can’t be said about Embiid, who has also played in a weaker Eastern Conference.
While Jokic averaged 34.5/13.2/10.3 on 59/44/85 shooting splits and was far and away the best player on the floor in a series with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, Embiid looked timid and lethargic at times against the Celtics. He didn’t look ready or prepared when given two chances to knock off the team that has stood above him for years.
The great ones elevate their play in the postseason. As good as Embiid has been in the regular season the past few seasons, Jokic has taken his game to the next level when it matters the most. I can’t say the same for Embiid.
Are These Two Really Close, Anyway?
I think one of the reasons people usually have Jokic as an afterthought compared to Embiid is their styles of play. While Embiid is a physically imposing player who dominates the ball, it’s easy to forget about all the little things the Joker does to impact the game. Sure, the two play the same position, but they have two very different ways of going about it.
This postseason has been more evidence that Jokic’s method is better than Embiid’s. Anybody who has watched these two this postseason knows what I’m about to say is true:
Embiid is not in Jokic’s class
And I don’t think it’s particularly close. While Jokic is usually the statistically superior candidate in debates like this, the eye test is doing him wonders. It’s hard to take any player over Jokic right now, much less Embiid.
When Embiid is going great, it’s easy to confuse him for Jokic’s equal, if not his superior, just as it’s easy to put Damian Lillard in Stephen Curry’s class when he’s cooking. I’ve made the mistake myself. When Steph Curry broke his wrist and Dame couldn’t seem to miss, I slid Lillard onto Curry’s level. And then I remembered that Curry owns his own tier, above everybody else. I think the same is true with Jokic.
In the playoffs, getting good shots becomes harder and harder to do. Teams play each other every other day for a week. They learn the ins and outs of every player and what plays they run. Being able to generate these clean looks is paramount to success. Nikola Jokic is a guaranteed-quality shot. If he’s not the one shooting it, then his teammate certainly is.
The Nuggets run their offense through him, and it cannot be defended. Cannot. If you single-cover Jokic, whether in the regular season or the playoffs, he is going to destroy you in the post or with his feathery touch. Double-team him, and he slices you wide open with his passing. No other player in the league is as unguardable as Jokic is…and he doesn’t have to dribble the ball a million times to do it! He’s the outlier of outliers.
That defensive dilemma is not one Embiid can replicate. You can double-team him, and he will not pick you apart; he finished with 24 assists against 35 turnovers in the playoffs. You can say MVP is a regular season award, but nothing speaks to Jokic’s value more than his ability to shred double teams, and Embiid, in the regular season or the playoffs, cannot do that.
When things get tight, Embiid needs his free throws to be effective. Without his healthy diet of 9-10 free throws, he’s not the same player. Meanwhile, Jokic doesn’t have to score, and he’ll make defenses bend to his every command.
While Jokic guarantees good offense, Embiid does not. Denver is a cohesive unit where Jokic is the engine. Everything runs harmoniously around him. Most of Philadelphia’s offense is predicated around watching Embiid refuse to pass the ball while he’s being swarmed. It becomes stagnant and ugly more often than not.
As the 76ers have cycled through different coaches and co-stars around Embiid, the struggles in the halfcourt have persisted. Both Doc Rivers and Brett Brown haven’t done Embiid any favors, yes, but at some point, you can’t keep looking outwards. Embiid is Philadelphia’s lone franchise pillar guaranteed to be standing next season, and at some point, you have to ask yourself who the common denominator in all these postseason shortcomings is.
Comments like this after the game speak to a player who isn’t very self aware;
While Embiid struggles to get over the hump, Jokic has Denver looking like a perennial contender. While Embiid became defensive and obsessive at times about hyping himself up for MVP, Jokic doesn’t seem to care about how much metal is on his trophy case. He wants to win above all else. Can you say the same about Embiid, a player who seems like a stats-first dude?
And when he finally got MVP (thanks to a severe case of voter fatigue against Jokic), Joel did what he always does in the postseason: shit the bed. Jokic has been better than Embiid for some time now. He would’ve gotten my vote for a third straight MVP.
With another postseason’s worth of evidence, it’s getting harder and harder to see Embiid being on the same tier as Jokic. They’re two different players with two different styles. But one style is clearly better than the other, and one player is also clearly better than the other, whether the media is ready to admit it or not.
As the 76ers do some soul-searching this offseason, the Nuggets couldn’t be more happy with their current situation. And maybe that’s all you need to know about the Embiid v. Jokic “debate” right now.
