The New York Knicks Are Still Abysmal

I’m not giving you breaking news when I tell you that the Knicks are struggling. I predicted that the Knicks would have more success than they did last season, with all the moves they made in the offseason. In my opinion, those additions made the Knicks better.

Fast forward to the present day, and things are falling apart. The Knicks’ stout defense from last season has dropped to the middle of the pack. Julius Randle, the breakout player of 2021, has come back to Earth and then some with his shooting struggles.

The roster struggles to find consistent play, a big reason as to why the Knicks would be on the couch right now if the playoffs began. So far, the Knicks’ season has been best summed up by Julius Randle’s thumb: DOWN!

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Overview

It would be easy to talk about all the Knicks’ flaws. I could do that all day. But that’s not what this blog is trying to accomplish. Instead, we’re trying to troubleshoot all that the Knicks are going through.

There are some things the Knicks do that I will never understand, like why their bench is so much better than their starters. But I do know that I can help solve a few of their numerous problems. Shall we?

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Defense

Tom Thibodeau’s arrival in New York changed a lot for the Knicks. Mainly, their defense was similar to what we saw in the 90s from this team. Despite not having a band of elite defenders, the Knicks were one of the best defenses in the NBA. They were the 4th ranked defense in 2021, specializing in defending the 3-PT line.

The Knicks’ struggles this season on defense have been well documented. Adding more scorers is bound to make your defense drop in production. But by this much? It makes you wonder about the 2021 defense and if it was as good as marketed…

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It’s a Make or Miss League

Great defense doesn’t lead to a stop every time. While the Knicks were great defensively last season, I don’t think it was because they were playing great defense. I probably didn’t explain that well, but here’s what I mean.

Throughout any given game, there will be defensive breakdowns. Poor rotations or communication often lead to wide-open shots for the other team. At that point, the defense can’t do anything. They’re at the mercy of the best basketball players in the world to make the shot.

But that’s where the luck of the draw comes in. A defense could allow 100 open shots per game. But nobody will expect them to make all 100 because of a little something called human error. So when we compare the Knicks’ defense over the past two seasons, you get a sense of that. It’s all about the luck of the draw.

Knicks 2020-21 Defense	Knicks 2021-22 Defense
17.5 3-PTA Wide-Open	18.8 3-PTA Wide-Open
34.7% 3-PT on Wide-Open 3’s (2nd best)	39.9% 3-PT on Wide-Open 3’s (2nd worst)
13.9 3-PTA Open	14.1 3-PTA Open
34.1% 3-PT on Open 3’s (4th best)	29.7% 3-PT on Open 3’s (best in NBA)

I love these numbers so much. They’re so revealing about how random defense can be. The Knicks aren’t allowing any more or less “open” threes than last season, but teams are simply making more of the open looks the Knicks are allowing.

There’s a twist to the Knicks’ open shooting madness. While their wide-open 3’s have taken a turn for the worst, they’ve actually experienced better luck on open 3’s. It’s really weird as to why this is, but this describes the Knicks’ defense this season well.

There’s a reason they call it a make-or-miss league.

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A Mixed Bag In The Pick-and-Rolls

The Knicks’ pick-and-roll defense has been rock solid all season. They hold opposing PNR ball-handlers to just 39% shooting, the best in the league. They allow just 0.82 points per possession to those same ball-handlers, which ranks in the top-10 in the league.

That same great defense applies to the roll man. The Knicks allow just 1.02 points per possession to the roll guy on pick-and-rolls, which is the second-best in the league. Overall, the Knicks have a great pick-and-roll defense.

However, there were some good and bad things from their latest loss to the Pelicans. You still saw some great defense, but there were some breakdowns.

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This is why the Knicks don’t switch pick-and-roll actions. Taj Gibson shows, then retreats, giving time for Grimes to recover. He then plays picture-perfect defense, forcing a miss.

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Mitchell Robinson commits to stopping Ingram, meaning that Fournier has to take away Valanciunas on the roll. The Knicks don’t fully switch the action because switching is for idiots.

Barrett recovers and so does Robinson, but Fournier can’t get out to Hart in time. It’s not bad defense, but it’s not good either.

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Even in a more complex screening action with more players, the Knicks hold serve. Immanuel Quickley runs like a mad dog around the screen, chasing Graham. Meanwhile, Mitch-Rob plays in between, taking away the pass/drive. Quintin Grimes comes over from the weakside for insurance.

Muah

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I was surprised to see how good the Knicks’ defense in the pick-and-roll was. Before looking at the numbers, I assumed that they weren’t (arguably) the best pick-and-roll defense in the NBA. I can’t say the same thing about their on-ball defense, though.

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Getting Beat Off The Dribble

That’s what we in the business like to call a segue, kids. After watching the Knicks last night, there were too many blowbys. Too many times the Pelicans (and other teams, I’m sure) just got by the initial defender with no resistance.

Getting beat off the dribble is a death sentence. It puts too much pressure on your defense if you’re first line of defense is constantly getting beat. Just ask the Jazz.

I can’t even show you clips of this because it happened too much. You’ll have to trust me that the Knicks were a parked car last night.

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The Misutilization of Julius Randle

After being an All-Star and All-NBA member last season, Julius Randle’s production has gone back down to Earth. In 2021, he was the king of making tough shots. His success was even more impressive considering his backcourt comprised of Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock.

The king of making tough, fading away mid-range shots has disappeared. He’s back to being Julius Randle, not Brad Miller. The easy thing to say is that Randle is missing the shots he hit last year. That is an undeniable fact about his game in 2022, but it goes further than just missing shots.

In my opinion, the Knicks are misusing their (former) All-Star.

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A Contrast In Styles

You know how I like my tables. Here’s a table of how Randle’s offensive game has changed from this season compared to last.

Julius Randle When He Was Good (2021)	Julius Randle When He’s Bad (2022)
4.2 Post-Ups per game	2.7 Post-Ups per game
47.1% FG on Post-Ups	36.1% FG on Post-Ups
42% Catch-and-Shoot 3-PT (3.8 attempts)	31% Catch-and-Shoot 3-PT (3.2 attempts)
47% FG when holding the ball for 2-6 seconds	38% FG when holding the ball for 2-6 seconds
41.5% mid-range shooting (5.8 attempts)	33% mid-range shooting (4.0 attempts)

Rapid-Fire Thoughts

• Fewer post touches – less effective with smaller value this season
  
• Catch-and-shoot 3’s have become way less effective
  
• Long-winded baseline isolations are no longer plausible
  
• Mid-range shooting has fallen off the Grand Canyon

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I know Devante Graham’ isn’t the ideal defender for this example, but instead of being near the corner, Randle is in the middle. I understand that he might be more comfortable on the wing, but it’s easier to defend him like that. The Hawks just forced Randle away from the middle in the playoffs last year and it worked.

Here, with Randle in the middle, so much more can happen. More middle = better Randle (equation has been proved by science)

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I cringe every time I see Randle, or any player for that matter, take these types of shots. Even if he made it, I wouldn’t like it. It’s such a difficult shot, why even take it?

The only player I think I would be ok with shooting this is KD. In case you haven’t noticed, Julius Randle is not Kevin Durant.

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Randle doesn’t get the ball enough where he needs to. I want to see him used as a screener more. Maybe they could flash him to the middle occasionally. I don’t want to see clips like the one above, a stupid shot from the corner. Anything but that.

Randle’s one-year high can be described as lucky. It’s unlikely he shoots nearly 40% from three again. His ridiculous shot-making from the baseline seems like a fever dream at this point. Randle’s shot selection is partly the reason he’s struggled this year.

Another part of the problem is the Knicks’ inability to adapt their scheming of Randle. It’s the same strategy every game and it’s clearly not working, but they stand pat nevertheless. Until both sides make sweeping changes, expect more of the same from Randle to end 2022.

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Recap

Everything seems one click off for this Knicks team. Nothing seems to add upright, no matter the tinkering done by the Penguin. Despite having a surprisingly deep team, the Knicks are on the outside looking in for the playoffs.

Adding Cam Reddish might help things, but I don’t think the Knicks will turn things around solely because of Reddish. They need their starters to be more consistent and help them stay in games. With Derrick Rose out, first-rounder Quintin Grimes has to continue his solid production. And most of all, the Knicks have to use Julius Randle, their best player, in more creative ways.

But here’s the thing, I don’t know if they can do it. While the Eastern Conference is a minefield of around 0.500 teams, the Knicks are about to experience scheduling hell.

Nine out of their next 10 games come against teams currently in the Top 10 of their respective conferences. This includes games against the Bucks, Grizzlies, Warriors, Cavs, Nuggets, and Jazz. Their record of 22-24 is set to get worse in the coming weeks.

With the time left to fix things dwindling, the Knicks rallying cry of Bing Bong might not be able to save them.

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