The Number One Seeds Are Losing Their Composure
When you’re the number one seed in your conference, you’re supposed to be really good. Tell that to Miami and Phoenix.
The number one seeds in the playoffs are destined to go far. Not only are they a contending team, they have the easiest path (by seed) to the NBA Finals. As of right now, our two #1 seeds aren’t looking so hot. Out West, the Suns have lost the past two games to the Mavericks. They look frazzled and out of sorts. Similar things could be said about Miami in the East. They’ve looked inferior against a fully healthy 76ers team.
Today, I’m going to try and find out why these #1 seeds are struggling – and if they can turn it around.
Phoenix Suns
After taking a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Mavericks, I thought this series was over. Phoenix was running laps around the Mavs – making me look foolish for thinking the series would last seven games. But, I was able to catch myself when I said this;
Again, I don’t mean to overreact. There’s still a lot of basketball left to play. The Suns still have to win ten more games. They were in a similar position last season, and they blew it. Nothing’s stopping that same thing from happening again.
But it’s hard to see a team meeting what the Suns are currently doing. Are they bound to slow down? Yes. Are you overreacting? Most definitely. Should we crown the Suns as saviors? Maybe.
The art of saving face – a TedTalk
And boy, was I right! Since then, the Suns have looked nothing like the team that was picking Dallas apart. The once bountiful open looks aren’t there anymore. Chris Paul is playing some of the worst basketball of his career. And worst of all?
The Suns are panicking. They’re in their own heads, and it’s showing. Here’s a recap of what’s gone wrong for a team that could do no wrong just a few days ago.
Spacing Out Ayton
Coming into this series, I thought Deandre Ayton was the ultimate mismatch for the Mavericks. Turns out I’m good at predicting things. Offensively, the Mavs have hardly had an answer for the former number one overall pick (sorry, Luka).
16.0 points / 8.3 rebounds / 12.5 FGA / 58% TS
Luckily for the Mavs, the Suns don’t seem interested in going to Ayton that often. After going to him early, they go away from their biggest mismatch. Ayton can’t be stopped – unless his teammates don’t pass him the ball.
Speaking of Powell, his minutes in this series reflect a change in attitude for Dallas. The name of the game? Spacing;
Dwight Powell Minutes in This Series
- Game 1: 16 minutes
- Game 2: 13 minutes
- Gm 3: 10 minutes
- Game 4: 10 minutes
In the pursuit of more spacing, the Mavericks have gone away from Powell. Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans now make up the bulk of those minutes. And it’s worked like a charm. Ayton was constantly being forced out onto the perimeter, guarding Luka Doncic way more than Phoenix would’ve liked.
This play sums things up well;
Dallas will obviously not be playing Powell much in this series – especially given how effective their more offensively-driven lineups have been. Interesting to see how Monty Williams and co combat this problem.
Hey Chris, Your Choke Is Showing!
After game two, it was debatable who the best player in this series was. Sure, Luka was putting up historic numbers, but so was Paul. His fourth-quarter explosion in game two marked another fantastic performance for the 37-year-old.
Since then, Paul has been playing some of the worst basketball of his career. This road trip to Dallas gave him a few firsts in his career;
- Game 3: 7 turnovers in one half
- Game 4: 4 fouls in first half – more fouls than points
Paul was at the top of this game until he wasn’t. Seemingly overnight, he’s become as unreliable as the DMV. Now, where have I seen this before…
(Vietnam flashbacks to last year)
Game 4 was Chris Paul’s best job at trying to throw away this series. His four first-half fouls could be blamed on two parties; himself and Monty Williams. Williams should have taken CP-3 out when he picked up his third foul with 1:52 left in the first half.
But Chris Paul shouldn’t have gone for a rebound he couldn’t get as the first half was all but over. Paul picked up another dumb foul in the second half, stopping right in front of Jalen Brunson. The irony was that that is Paul’s signature move. But, on par with his afternoon, things didn’t do his way.
The Suns were making a comeback in the fourth when Paul had five fouls. After fouling out, things went south. Phoenix shot 53% from the field when Paul was on the floor. When he wasn’t on the floor, that figure plummeted to 42%.
Even at his worst, it’s clear the Suns need CP-3. Now, they’ll need his best to take back the momentum of this series.
Can They Rebound From This?
Adversity isn’t something the Suns have faced in a long time. They’ve taken their foot off the gas after murdering Dallas through the first two games. Since then, everybody but Devin Booker has played below their usual standards.
But the Mavs still have to beat Dallas on the road. Phoenix’s poor play on the road would be washed away with a game five victory. Game 5 is a chance for Ayton, Bridges, Williams, and CP-3 to get back on track.
Phoenix didn’t necessarily play worse over the past two games – they were just sloppier. If they can manage their turnovers, I think they’re fine. My main concern is defense.
Dallas’ floor spacing is exposing Deandre Ayton. A good idea might be to not switch Ayton onto perimeter players like Brunson or Luka. I know that seems obvious, but apparently, Phoenix didn’t get the memo.
The Suns were a 68-win juggernaut during the regular season for a reason. They’re going to make adjustments ahead of game five, trying to slow down this Dallas team that’s playing with house money. With their backs up against the wall, let’s see what this Suns team is really about.
Miami Heat
Maybe there’s a reason not many people talked about the Heat during the regular season. Joel Embiid’s uncertain health made me proclaim the Heat would win this series in five games. Through the first two games, I was right. (Note: DeAndre Jordan was starting at center).
But, ever since the 76ers got their MVP back, things haven’t been the same. Joel Embiid may not be scoring 40 points, but his presence on the floor has changed this series dramatically. Miami went from having all the momentum to now retreating back to the confines of American Airline Arena.
Kyle Lowry is battling through an injury. Duncan Robinson has fallen out of the rotation. Bam Adebayo has been underwhelming. Just like last season, Miami’s true colors have been revealed under the brightest spotlight.
Fronting Joel Embiid Is Not Working
Joel Embiid is a matchup nightmare for defenses. His combination of strength, speed, and agility with a silky smooth jumper is uncanny. Teams will sometimes throw three bodies at him – trying to force him away from the basket. Despite having Bam Adebayo, Miami has had an interesting Embiid-stopping strategy.
Every time Embiid sets a screen, the Heat switch it. On top of that, Embiid’s new torture partner decides to front him. If this idea sounds stupid, that’s because it is;
Miami’s game plan for Embiid is confusing. Since they lack size, it doesn’t make sense for them to switch these screens. Why not just keep Bam Adebayo, an All-NBA defender, on him at all times?? Every time Miami fronts Embiid, they have a mad scramble to try and stay in front of him.
My solution? Don’t continue to do what the Heat have been doing.
Sluggish Offense
Other than Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, shot creation hasn’t come easy for Miami over the past two games. They managed just 79 points in game three. They then followed that up with 20% shooting from outside in game four.
Speaking of shooting, Miami has basically none in this series. Duncan Robinson’s $90 million dollar self has been collecting dust on the bench. Kyle Lowry has been basically nonexistent with that hamstring injury.
Others like Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo have also failed to space out the floor for Miami. Given the limited scoring profiles of their two All-Stars, Philly doesn’t have to cover as much ground. While Miami scrambles around the perimeter, the sixers can sit back and relax.
Miami has managed just 100.5 points per 100 possessions in their two losses. Maybe it’s time get Duncan Robinson back out there. Just a thought.
Can They Rebound From This?
While I still have faith in the Suns, I don’t know if I believe in the Heat. As soon as the 76ers got Embiid back, the energy shifted. Miami looks like they’re in a trance, unable to snap out of whatever slump they’re in.
Defensively, I hate the way they’re playing Joel Embiid. If James Harden continues to turn back the clock, goodnight Miami. Offensively, aside from Jimmy Butler, everybody has been underwhelming. Not having a 100% Kyle Lowry puts Miami in the same place they were last year.
Without a floor general, their chickens with their heads cut off. To me, they’re a ticking time bomb. Erik Spoelstra will have to wake this team up ahead of game five, or else. That fabled Heat Culture is being put to the fire right now.
Let’s see how long it takes for this team to sizzle.
Can These Two Number One Seeds Turn Things Around? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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