The Winners and Losers of the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery
From Atlanta lucking their way into the top spot to Detroit’s continued misery, let’s find the winners and losers from the 2024 NBA Lottery.
Despite this year’s draft being billed as the “least talented in years,” the NBA Draft Lottery is still exhilarating. After months of ugly basketball, teams anxiously await the results of a few ping-pong balls to decide their fate. Luck swings the future of franchises and changes the direction of the league. Last night was no different. From Atlanta’s luck to Detroit’s misfortune, let’s discuss the winners and losers of the lottery.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks
Coming into the lottery, the Hawks had a 66% chance of landing the #10 pick. For a mediocre play-in team, that made sense. With only a 13.88% at a top-four pick and a mere 3% chance at the #1 selection, I doubt anybody in Atlanta’s front office was expecting anything from the lottery. Instead, the Hawks got thrown a life preserver.
Following a miserable 36-46 campaign, many things became apparent in Atlanta. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray could no longer co-exist. Clint Capela continued to regress with no end in sight. And the whole roster was allergic to defense. Outside of Jalen Johnson’s breakout, the Hawks were a lifeless, depressing brand of basketball. They stared down the barrel of a bleak summer. What were they going to do with Dejounte Murray? Or Trae Young?
Getting the #1 overall pick doesn’t alleviate the situation, but it does help this transition period. While most analysts don’t think this draft has a true superstar, Atlanta does get the opportunity to add someone. But more importantly, it gives them more options to deal with the futures of Young & Murray.
The Hawks traded three first-rounders to get Murray from the Spurs a couple seasons ago. They will not be getting the same value if they trade him this summer. But perhaps packaging Murray with the #1 overall pick could net Atlanta something more enticing. Young obviously has more value (especially to San Antonio or Orlando), so it’ll be interesting to see which avenue Atlanta decides to go down.
Do they tear everything down to the studs? Do they reset a little? No matter what they do, those 3% odds managed to make Atlanta’s future look a little brighter, albeit not clearer. Now, here’s to hoping that they don’t take a quarterback.
Loser: Brooklyn Nets
Oh, Brooklyn. What are we going to do with you? After kicking the tires on their superteam fling, the Nets are one of the worst teams in the league. They paid Ben Simmons $37.8 million last season, only for him to spend more effort on his Met Gala outfit than his actual profession. But, unlike most other shitty basketball teams, the Nets don’t own any of their first-round picks.
Brooklyn should have the third overall pick in this year’s draft. Instead, thanks to the James Harden trade, the Rockets are getting that pick. Harden only played 80 games for the Nets, and in return for trading him to the 76ers, they got the aforementioned Simmons, who will make 25% (40.3 million) of the Nets’ payroll next year.
The Nets still owe Houston a first-round pick in 2026 and pick-swaps in 2025 and 2027. Sean Marks, I think there’s a Nobel Prize in your near future. Phoenix will give the Nets three first-rounders in 2025, 2027, and 2029 as part of the Durant trade, but that relief won’t start until next year. And, of course, Brooklyn has no control over how good those picks are going to be.
Outside of Mikal Bridges and Nicolas Claxton, the Nets don’t have many exciting pieces for the future. Bridges struggled after the All-Star break without a facilitator to ease his offensive load. Thanks to the financial burden of Simmons and the lack of their own first-round picks, it’s hard to see this team getting better anytime soon.
But the lottery may have been the least of the Nets’ worries. Claxton, their versatile, defensive-oriented center, is an unrestricted free agent this summer. Claxton is sure to have plenty of suitors and the Nets may have to overpay just to keep him. All to win 30-odd games next year and continue to be the side act in New York. Maybe moving back to New Jersey wouldn’t be the worst idea ever.
Loser: Detroit Pistons
Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Detroit Pistons needed anything positive to happen. After a season in which they lost 68 games, including 28 straight at one point, right after paying Monty Williams $80 million dollars to coach them, the Pistons needed some luck in the lottery. In 2022 and 2023, the Pistons had gotten the fifth overall pick.
But surely this year would be different. This year, just maybe, the basketball gods would be nice to that small team from Detroit. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the Pistons got the short end of the stick. Again.
Detroit had the highest odds (14%) of the #1 pick. They had a 52.13% chance of getting a top-four selection. But, for the third year in a row, the Pistons got the fifth pick. Not even Shakespeare could write something so tragic. In a year where they weren’t trying to lose, the Pistons lost 68 games and don’t have anything to show for it.
Cade Cunningham is about the only sure thing on this roster. Outside of him, just about everything else hasn’t panned out yet. General manager Troy Weaver has swung and missed in all of his major moves at the helm. If the Pistons decide to trade the pick or select someone, I don’t have much faith in Weaver to make the right move.
Over the past half-decade, the Pistons have won just 24.5% of their games. The difference between the Pistons and the 29th team is 49 wins, the same as the gap between the 29th and 16th. This is a new low. The next one will be when the Pistons give Tobias Harris a max contract this summer.
Winner: Houston Rockets
Houston’s actual pick (12th) went to Oklahoma City. The Chris Paul trade gave the Thunder this pick, which is good because they’re in such short supply of them. But Houston didn’t go home empty handed. Owners of the Nets’ first-round pick, Houston’s pick was supposed to be in the 9-10 range.
Instead, Houston cashed in the 3rd overall pick, which they only had a 5.23% chance of getting. Houston’s rebuild has been rapidly improving. The Rockets narrowly missed the play-in tournament this past season and will be in the mix again next year. Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green are making the leap into borderline All-Stars. Those two, paired with the rest of the young core and guys like VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, are helping to build a new identity in Houston.
The third overall pick could help them shape it further. I’m interested to see if the Rockets trade the pick or actually take someone with it. I think trading the pick makes more sense but there isn’t really a downside to taking a top-three talent. Regardless of what they end up doing, their luck in the lottery is going to help Houston continue to build on the momentum they’re building.
Loser: Toronto Raptors
After a couple seasons of mediocrity, the Raptors finally pulled the plug. Gone went Pascal Siakam and OG Anonoby. The Raptors were finally resetting and trying to get younger. It made sense. But, the reward for coming to their senses is no first-round lottery picks in this upcoming draft. Despite winning just 25 games this past season, Masai Ujiri will have to kickstart this rebuild without a top choice in the draft.
You see, before Toronto came to their senses, they traded for Jakob Poeltl during the 2022 trade deadline. They gave the Spurs a 2024 top-six protected pick as part of the package. If the pick had stayed in the top six, which it had a 45.86% chance of doing, Toronto would have kept the pick.
Instead, the Spurs, who just won the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes last year, get to add another top-ten pick to help build around their generational superstar. Now, the Raptors do have a first-round pick from the Pacers to help aid their rebuild. They’re not going home completely empty-handed. And in a weaker draft class, it’s not the worst outcome in the world to not have a top selection.
But, losing 25 games is supposed to net you more than a pick in the teens. The Raptors are at the onset of this rebuilding project, and it’s safe to say they’re off to an unlucky start.
Who was the biggest winner of the NBA Lottery? The biggest loser? Leave a comment down below!
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