There Are Too Many MVP Candidates This Season
Through the first 10 games of any given NBA season, every player is the MVP. Miles Bridges? Totally. Harrison Barnes? 100%. Paul George? I’ll put some eggs in that basket.
But now that we’re past the halfway point of the season, we have our contenders for the most prestigious award in basketball. But here’s the thing. Most years, the MVP race is down to two or three players. These players are a cut above everybody else and have the best chance to win MVP.
Even with a 40+ game sample size, there are too many candidates for MVP. It’s been the perfect storm of excellence. Superstars from years past are continuing their excellence. New, up-and-coming candidates have burst onto the scene. It’s impossible to say who will win MVP at this point.
Today, my task sounds easy. I will find every MVP candidate with a legitimate shot to win the award. I will break down their candidacy and see if there’s really a chance that {insert player name} can win MVP. At the end, I will make my pick for MVP that will almost certainly be wrong. Let’s do this.
The Two Types of Candidates
In my mind, there are two types of MVP candidates. First and foremost, we have our frontrunners. The guys putting on incredible, sometimes historic numbers. They lead their teams to the tops of their respective conferences, making things look easy. When the season ends, only a few players are good enough to end up here.
The other type of MVP candidate is the dark-horses. Dark-horse candidates are fun players to talk about, mainly because nobody else will. Usually, dark-horse candidates are having seasons on par with those considered front runners for the award. But for some reason, most of them arbitrary and stupid, these players don’t get nearly as much attention as they demand.
After eight minutes of research, I have made a list of my MVP candidates. There are eight players in total; five frontrunners and three dark-horses. It took me 338 words to get to this point, so without further ado, here are my MVP candidates.
The Frontrunners
I have five players included in the frontrunner category. All five of these players are having incredible seasons, all deserving of praise. I will lay out their candidacy and their chances of winning the award.
*Candidates are in no particular order*
Kevin Durant (BKN)
Apparently, achilles injuries don’t mean anything when you’re Kevin Durant. If you thought his 2021 campaign, another MVP-caliber season, was impressive, you’re sadly mistaken. Somehow, at age 33 and in his 14th season, KD is putting up a season for the ages.
29.3 points (leads NBA) – 7.4 rebounds – 5.8 assists – 63% TS (+6.9 rTS%)
Durant is having another fantastic season. He’s on pace for the 5th scoring title of his career. He’s shooting seven true shooting percentage points better than the rest of the league. His playmaking + rebounding abilities continue to go unnoticed.
That’s not to mention the defense, where KD is no slouch. Since joining the Warriors, Durant’s effort on that end has skyrocketed. Durant’s 7.3 BPM (box plus/minus) ranks 6th in the league. His 3.1 VORP (value over replacement player) is 3rd in the league.
His shooting splits from around the court don’t make things any easier to understand this magnitude of scoring. Defenses know where KD likes to operate, but that doesn’t matter anymore. Maybe it never has, but the amount of ‘WTF’ shots KD hits on a nightly basis is seemingly at an all-time high. I went to a Nets game this season, so I can attest to this.
Durant is shooting the second-most attempts from the mid-range this season (7.1). While doing that, he’s shooting a scorching 55% from that area of the floor. Of the 20 players attempting more than four mid-range shots, Durant is somehow 2nd amongst that group in FG%, trailing teammate LaMarcus Aldridge.
Durant’s 2022 campaign is one of the finest individual seasons in recent NBA history. But I find it hard to believe that KD will win this award.
For one, he plays with two other superstars. That matters in an MVP race, where people won’t give you the light of day if you’re on a superteam. No matter how good KD is, he plays with Kyrie and Harden. He’s “supposed” to be this good.
Secondly and perhaps more damning is KD’s knee injury. The Nets won’t have the best offensive player in the world for 4-6 weeks. Durant will miss 20-30 games, essentially taking him out of the running. To be an MVP, you have to play at least 70 games. You can’t play 60/82 games and expect the award.
The only thing “good” above Durant’s injury is that we’ll get to see how important he is to the Nets. The Nets would not be 12 games over 0.500 if not for KD. Hopefully, the masses will get to see that Durant was holding this team together, Harden and Irving be damned.
The combination of missed games and playing on a superteam will eventually counteract the greatness Durant is producing. I don’t think he minds. He has his eyes on the Larry O’Brien trophy in June.
Stephen Curry (GSW)
Stephen Curry isn’t as good as he was in 2021. That’s not a knock or anything, but it’s (gasp) hard to put up historically good shooting numbers for two seasons in a row. This season has been a roller coaster for Curry. He broke the all-time 3-PT record and got his Splash Brother, Klay Thompson, back. He’s also on the worst shooting slump of his career.
Still, the Warriors are back to being title favorites. Curry’s not having the best season in the world to his standards, but he’s still having a great season.
26.3 points – 5.4 rebounds – 6.0 assists – 59% TS (+3.2 rTS%)
Curry’s in a shooting slump right now because he’s not getting open as much. That’s not to say that defenses are figuring out Curry, but they are doing a better job of taking away his shots (for now). Curry still finds ways to get open, but there are fewer “open” shots.
The Warriors’ offense still revolves around Curry. His off-ball movement creates space for everyone else. Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole are thriving because defenses aren’t focused on them.
Curry is still the most valuable player in the NBA by the numbers. He leads the league in plus/minus (+402). The Warriors are outscoring opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. With Curry on the floor, the Warriors have a 115.5 offensive rating, which would be second in the NBA.
Curry’s impact on the Warriors’ offense isn’t limited to how well he’s shooting on moving thirty-footers. He’s the reason they are, in my opinion, the best teams in the NBA. He makes them tick on offense. It’s only a matter of time before he starts shooting 40% from distance again.
I think that Curry is in a great spot to win MVP. His recent struggles have shown how valuable he is to this offense, ignoring the numbers. The Warriors will remain near the top of the Western Conference for the rest of the season.
Curry is the current betting favorite for MVP at +135. His “off” season is still an All-NBA first-team caliber season, which should tell you something about how high of a standard he’s set for himself the past decade or so.
A third MVP for the Baby Faced Assassin isn’t the worst bet in the world.
Joel Embiid (PHI)
The 76ers are on a roll. Their start to the 2022 calendar year has been explosive. Led by Joel Embiid, the 76ers are back to looking like a playoff team. Embiid could have won MVP last season if not for injuries. The same is true about this season.
Embiid is the closest thing we have to Shaq in the modern NBA. But, he plays with such finesse that rivals Hakeem the Dream. His mid-range shooting and ability to draw fouls make him an impossible assignment. His offensive repertoire is unmatched.
Hell, the 76ers have even used Embiid at point guard this season. It’s another wrinkle to one of the most gifted centers in the NBA.
27.2 points – 10.6 rebounds – 2.5 stocks – 60% TS (+4.4rTS%)
Embiid is not only one of the best offensive players in the NBA, he’s an elite defender. He’s averaging a combined 2.5 steals & blocks this season. His 8.0 BPM is 5th in the NBA. The 76ers have a 115.0 offensive rating when Embiid is on the floor, which would rank 2nd in the NBA.
The 76ers defensive rating also rises by four points when Embiid isn’t on the floor, showing his impact on both ends of the floor. Quite simply, Joel Embiid is doing it all for a team that has lost just once in their last ten contests.
The 76ers are 5th in the East but are only 2.5 games from the 1st place Bulls. If their great play continues, the 76ers could claim homecourt advantage in the playoffs, which would greatly improve Embiid’s MVP chances.
The problem, like always with Embiid, has been health. He’s missed 11 games this season already. While he hasn’t missed a game since December 13th, his health has always been fragile.
I would like to add that the 76ers are 3-8 without Embiid this season. If he doesn’t miss any more games, that would only serve to strengthen his case for MVP.
If the 76ers keep rolling as they have been, Embiid might be able to snag the MVP he closely lost last year.
Nikola Jokic (DEN)
Nikola Jokic is easily the best center in the NBA. Even after showering Joel Embiid with compliments for 400 words, he doesn’t come close to the greatness of Nikola Jokic. A darling of advanced stats, Jokic is leading the Nuggets in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Now that’s what I call valuable.
Without MPJ and Jamal Murray for a majority of the season, the Nuggets have a better record than the Lakers. Jokic continues to do things that no other player at the center position has ever done. Jokic might look sluggish and tired, but I can assure you, he is an offensive unicorn.
Oops. I almost forgot to add this bit. Nikola Jokic is having a better season than last year when he won MVP. Felt like I should have said that earlier.
25.3 points – 13.9 rebounds – 7.2 assists – 2.1 stocks – 64% TS (+8.3 rTS%)
A list of things Nikola Jokic leads the league in;
- PER (player efficiency rating where 15 is average) – 32.2
- 8.9 Offensive Box Plus/Minus
- 13.6 Box Plus/Minus (1.5 better than last season when he also led the league)
- 4.6 VORP (value over replacement player)
As I said, he’s an advanced metric darling. The Nuggets outscore opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor. The Nuggets are a +10.1 offensive rating with Jokic on the floor compared to when he’s on the bench.
Last season, Jokic didn’t miss a single game. He’s only missed five this season, where the Nuggets are 1-4 without him.
He’s missing his two best players, playing in the stacked Western Conference and putting up these numbers. Excuse my french, but what the f***!
Now, the Nuggets are currently 6th in the Western Conference. A recent report suggested that MPJ and Murray could return by April 1st, which is good for the Nuggets but doesn’t really help Jokic’s MVP chances.
There’s almost no chance Denver gets a top-3 seed, so here’s what has to happen. Jokic has to continue to be brilliant and the Nuggets cannot, and I mean cannot, end up in the play-in game. That can’t happen if Jokic wants to repeat as an MVP, the first center to do since Moses Malone in the 80s.
As much as I love Nikola Jokic, he’s playing an unfair game. Not only is his game not as marketable as other stars, casuals won’t have the time to delve into his greatness. All they see is a slow, brooding Serbian who can’t jump over a dime. I see the best offensive center the game has ever seen.
Not your average Center.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
Giannis Antetokounmpo has made a mockery of the MVP award. He’s cracked the code on how to win, regardless of the means it takes him to get his ridiculous numbers. Already a two-time winner of the award, the reigning Finals MVP is once again dominating.
His defense, efficiency, and production in just 32.5 minutes a night is insane. He has monopolized the MVP award like Alabama has monopolized the CFB (shoutout Stetson Bennett).
28.5 points – 11.3 rebounds – 6.1 assists – 2.5 stocks – 62% TS (+6rTS%) – Freaky
Even with injuries to their Big 3 that have kept the Bucks in check all year, Giannis has been brilliant. He’s doing all this in just 32.5 minutes. What the hell.
He’s a force on offense. The Bucks have used him in the pick-and-rolls more, making it impossible for defenses to stop him. He’s as efficient as ever, even though he’s most effective from 3 feet away from the rim.
He’s the best weakside defender in the NBA, spiking would-be layups like volleyballs. The best thing is, Giannis’ game isn’t pretty. It’s not as sleek as KD’s or as fun as Curry’s. But he’s just as good as those other guys, en route to another historically good season that he’s made his new normal.
The Bucks outscore opponents by 10.1 points per 100 possessions with Giannis on the floor. He leads the league with 4.7 offensive win shares and 7.0 win shares overall. Now, that’s an accumulative stat. Wins shares per 48 is a stat that tracks a player’s win shares per 48 minutes where 0.100 is average.
Giannis also leads the league in WS/48, at .286. His 10.8 BPM is 2nd in the NBA to Nikola Jokic. Giannis Antetokounmpo puts up historic numbers with ease. At only 27 years old, Giannis is on track to put up 8-10 more seasons just like this one. That’s equally scary and fun.
If the Bucks can get healthy, I think they’re the best team in the East. They are 27-18, which seems ok for their standards, but they’re just two games out of first place.
If they get first place, a third MVP by age 27 could be in reach for the Greek Freak. His Monopoly of MVP awards might continue. There’s no Get Out Of Jail card for the rest of the league.
Dark-Horses
These candidates might not be getting the love that they deserve, but they do deserve it. These candidates need a lot to go right to win MVP. It’s not impossible, but it’s a long shot.
Ja Morant (MEM)
24.4 points – 5.8 rebounds – 6.8 assists – 57% TS (+1.3rTS%)
Morant and the Grizzlies are having a magical season. Currently, 3rd in the West, Morant’s unreal athleticism and floor general prowess have catapulted the Grizzlies from the play-in tournament to the top of the West. They are perhaps the most exciting team in the league, with Morant being the main reason for that.
If you like a feel-good story, there’s no better place than Memphis. But I don’t think that Morant can win this award for a few reasons.
For one, the Grizzlies are 11-2 without Morant this season. Morant might be the heartbeat of this team, but they’ve fared fine without him this season.
For another, the Grizzlies aren’t dominating teams with Morant on the floor. They outscore opponents by just 2.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. That’s good but not as good as other MVP candidates.
As much it would be cool for Morant to replicate Derrick Rose’s 2011 MVP, I don’t see it happening.
Luka Doncic (DAL)
24.7 points – 8.5 rebounds – 8.7 assists – 53% TS (-2.8rTS%)
This is Doncic’s worst season since his rookie season. His efficiency problems have been worsened by his poor 3-PT shooting this season (30% on 7.9 attempts). He looks out of shape, slow, and sluggish.
The Mavericks have been great recently, more in part due to their great defense than Doncic’s offense. He’s still going to make an All-NBA team with those numbers, but his 2022 has been awful.
Unfortunately for Luka, the playoffs don’t count towards your MVP ambitions. I will still enjoy watching Luka torch whatever poor souls stand in front of him come April.
DeMar DeRozan (CHI)
25.7 points – 5.2 rebounds – 4.8 assists – 58% TS (+2rTS%)
The most scrutinized signing of the offseason might have been the best one. DeMar DeRozan is having a career renaissance with the Bulls. The mid-range bounty hunter has blended his game beautifully with the Bulls. The Toronto, more scoring version has met the Spurs, more passing version in the middle and it’s leading to DeRozan’s best overall season.
The Bulls are the top seed in the East because of DeRozan. The Bulls outscore opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions with DeRozan on the floor. The Bulls are going to be a top seed in the East.
But DeRozan, not a great defender, can’t win MVP. His advanced metrics aren’t out of this world like the other candidates I’ve mentioned in this article.
DeRozan has never been in the running for an MVP and he’s never made an All-NBA first team in his career. I find it hard to believe he breaks both those streaks and captures an MVP this season. He’s having a great season and proving everyone wrong, but I don’t see Deebo winning the award this season.
Honorable Mentions
These are some players who could be considered MVP candidates, but I don’t see them making the cut;
Jimmy Butler – He’s missed so much time with injury this season. The Heat are 12-6 without their best player, so I don’t think Butler can win MVP with his team so good without him.
Chris Paul – No matter how valuable he is or how good he is in the clutch, you can’t win MVP while averaging 14 points per game. This isn’t 1952.
Rudy Gobert – I don’t think NBA fans are ready for this. Gobert is one of the most valuable players in the NBA, but voters won’t give him the time of day because Gobert’s defensive value is unparalleled. There’s a reason he said this a few days ago;
“When I watch some of these other teams like the Suns or the Warriors, those guys are a step ahead of us in terms of winning habits. They take every game personally. Devin Booker is playing his ass off defensively. I’ve been watching him compared to two years ago. Guys like that, they buy in, and you can tell they take pride in playing defense and stopping their man, doing whatever they can defensively to stop the other team and be part of a winning culture. I think we’re not there yet, but I think were gonna get there.”
Again, Gobert’s impact is limited to the defensive player of the year award, but I think that if people appreciated his defense more, he would be in the running.
Lebron James – The Lakers are too bad for Lebron to win MVP. They are currently under 0.500 and a long way from the top of the Western Conference. It doesn’t help that Lebron’s production has been slipping in recent games.
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