Who Is Winning The Western Conference Finals?
The Western Conference Finals have been set. It’s between the LA Lakers and the Denver Nuggets.
The Western Conference Finals have been set. It’s between the LA Lakers and the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers advanced to the Western Conference with ease. The Nuggets had to play 14 games, 6 of them being elimination games. And yet, here we are. The battle to see who will advance to the NBA Finals. Who is winning this matchup?
LA Lakers
First we’ll start with the obvious favorites to win this series, the LA Lakers. On offense, the Lakers have been clicking. Lebron and AD have been on a roll during the playoffs and wrecking havoc for everybody. The other role players have been playing much better with Rondo, Caruso, Kuzma, KCP, Morris, and Danny Green all playing much better offensively. I think that the Lakers have ad advantage on offense, but can they take advantage of it?
Against Houston, the Lakers had to go small in order to keep up with the smaller Rockets. Against Denver, the Lakers will likely put McGee back in the lineup, but they will have to go small at times when Porter Jr. is at the 4. But the Lakers will likely be playing bigger than last series. Nikola Jokic is not quick enough to guard AD on the perimeter, but he can contend better down low. I think AD has to try and get a jumpshot going in this series in order to give Denver headaches. Not forcing anything, but if he’s relatively open, he should shoot it. Paul Millsap is an ok defender, but Davis should be able to power through him because Millsap is much smaller. So I think that AD can have a great series, he just has to find the right shot selection.
Lebron James will be guarded by Jerami Grant or Paul Millsap. Grant is a great perimeter defender, and James will have a tough time getting around him 1v1. But if James can get downhill, he can overpower Grant. Grant is not incredible strong and really can’t contend with Lebron down low. I think that Lebron will have to play like he did against Portland, just get downhill.
The other Lakers will just have to make open shots when the defense collapses around Lebron and AD. Pretty simple. But I think that Lebron and AD will have a good series because while it isn’t completely overpowering like it was against Portland or Houston, I think that if Lebron and AD take the right shots and get into a rhythm, nobody can stop them.
On defense, the Lakers are capable of stopping the Nuggets. But they can get into trouble. Jamal Murray has been much better in the postseason and coming off of a 40-point Game 7, he will be looking to be aggressive. The Lakers don’t have the best perimeter defense, but I think that they can handle Murray. KCP and Danny Green are ok defenders, but they might be over-matched. I think Lebron will have to guard Murray at times, similar to how he guarded Harden at times during the last series. But the Lakers can’t let Murray get going.
Jokic is a different animal. There is no stopping him. He destroyed Rudy Gobert in the 1st round, even down low. He destroyed he Clippers, although that was easier than advertised. I think that AD is an ok perimeter defender, although he is a better shot-blocker. I think that the Lakers play Jokic 1v1 and hope for the best. If you double, he’s a great passer and will find the other shooters around the perimeter. So I think you swallow the bullet and let AD battle with Jokic.
I think that the Lakers defend the Nuggets like this. You can let Jokic score. Davis a good enough defender to fend for himself. You have to limit Jamal Murray in order to contain Denver. Murray is the x-factor. I think that the Lakers guards have to be up and in Murray similar to Dame and CJ. The bigs and help should focus on collapsing on Murray and making it tough. You leave Jokic alone.
So the Lakers definitely have some advantages against the Nuggets, and they will look to take advantage. Just shut Jamal Murray down on defense, and don’t allow him to get going. On offense, keep giving it to Lebron and AD. AD needs to be aggressive and in turn hit some mid-range jumpshots to make it tough on Denver. Lebron needs to be aggressive and not passive and look to get downhill. The other role guys will fill in the grey areas.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have had an improbable run to the Western Conference Finals, but here they are. They have played 14 games and 6 of them being elimination games, it’s quite impressive what they are doing. Most people have written this series off, but it’ll be closer than most expect.
On offense, Nikola Jokic is god. Anybody who says Joel Embiid is better is kidding themselves. Jokic is a great scorer from the post and from 3-point range. He is a physical guy with a great touch. Combine that with precision passing from a guy who can’t jump a dime, and he’s pretty hard to stop. Don’t expect many quiet nights from the Joker.
Again, the X-factor is Jamal Murray. When he plays well, the Nuggets win. If not, they lose. Murray scored 40 in Game 7 and was the reason Denver beat the Clippers. We know what we’re getting with Jokic. We don’t always know with Murray. If Murray averages 25-30 points in this series, the Nuggets will be in a great place. But Murray has to have a great 1st half. Because if not, he usually doesn’t have a great game. So get Murray going early, and Denver will be tough to stop.
Gary Harris has been much better than advertised in the playoffs. All he has to do is hit some 3’s because they will be there. Jerami Grant, same thing. Hit some open 3’s to stretch the defense. And Grant is also a solid driver, so if he gets both of those going, the Nuggets will be nearly unguardable.
Michael Porter Jr. hasn’t been the same in the playoffs, but we’ve seen flashes. Most of his inconsistency is because of lack of knowledge/poor shot selection. That all comes with being a rookie in the NBA. But Porter Jr. can score. And if he can get it going off the bench in a couple of games, Denver can be much more potent on offense. Defensively he isn’t great at all, but if his offense can get going, Jokic and Murray will have a much easier time scoring.
Defensively the Nuggets could run into some problems. Anthony Davis is going to be a problem because they don’t have a perfect guy to guard him. Jokic is great down low with him being big and physical. But on the perimeter he surely won’t contend with the quick AD. Paul Millsap is a bit faster and can likely contend with AD on the perimeter to some degree, but is too small for AD down low. So the Nuggets will just have to either double-team him, or force him into bad looks.
Lebron James will be guarded by Jerami Grant, which isn’t as bad. The only part where this can get bad is if James continually gets down hill. The Nuggets will have to make Lebron a jump-shooters instead of a slasher. Because if they collapse, we know the looks that the Lakers can get. So the Nuggets will have to stop him from driving.
My Verdict: While many have written of Denver (again), this series is very interesting. It’ll be more about whose offense can be better, because nobody in this series perfectly matches up with each other. There are a lot of what ifs with the Nuggets, and a lot less with the Lakers. But the Nuggets don’t ever give up and have been battle tested. They won’t go down without a fight. I have the Lakers winning this series in 7 games because AD and Lebron have advantages on offense. And while the Lakers aren’t going to be great defending Denver, all it takes is one bad Jamal Murray night and they can win. I think that the Lakers have less questions than the Nuggets and that’s why I’m giving them the series.
(I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets win because, why not?)
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