Who’s Coming Out of the NBA Play-In Tournament?
Out of corporate greed, the NBA has gifted us the NBA Play-In Tournament, a stop gap before the playoffs. Here are my predictions for it!
It’s hard to take the play-in tournament seriously when you know the reason it exists. No matter, it’s the stop-gap before the postseason. We get to see eight teams, four from each conference, duke it out for the final seeds in their respective conferences.
With the NBA regular season-ending last night, the play-in tournament will start tomorrow. So, here are my predictions for everything you can expect.
Western Conference
#7 – Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)
#8 – Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
#9 – New Orleans Pelicans (36-46)
#10 – San Antonio Spurs (34-48)
The Western Conference play-in has been surprisingly quiet. The gap between teams is something you wouldn’t expect in a conference that has been a bloodbath for over two decades now. Here’s how I think will survive this battle.
(7) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (8) LA Clippers
This matchup has been set in stone for a while. Minnesota has been on fire for the past few months, cruising to the 7th seed in the West. The Clippers have had a much more rocky season, but they’ve gotten healthy at the right time. They have past success in the postseason with this core and are trying to get back to the dance.
Who will make it out of this matchup? Let’s find out.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: (46-36)
Offensive Rating: 113.8 (7th)
Defensive Rating: 111.0 (13th)
Net Rating: 2.8 (T-9th)
Strength of Schedule: 20th
Strengths: 3-PT Shooting / Offensive Rebounding / Forcing Turnovers / Star Power / Momentum
Weaknesses: 3-PT Defense / Fouling / Streakiness / Experience
It’s hard not to like the Minnesota Timberwolves. They have the best scoring offense in the NBA, stars who can score in bunches, and a newfound defensive edge that hasn’t been seen since Garnett left town. It’s great to have winning basketball back in Minnesota.
Offensively, they’ve got things covered. Karl-Anthony Towns can score from anywhere he damn pleases. The backcourt trio of Edwards, Russell, and Beasley can be streaky, but if even one of them gets going, that’s enough for Minnesota.
My dark horse in the Western Conference was supposed to score. But they weren’t supposed to defend. A veteran presence in Patrick Beverley has turned this defense into a respectable unit. Jarred Vanderbilt and Jaden McDaniels help shut down opposing wings.
Minnesota has gone 22-11 since the end of January. They’ve been on a tear. Like I said earlier, it’s hard not to like this team.
Los Angeles Clippers
Record: (42-40)
Offensive Rating: 109.5 (25th)
Defensive Rating: 109.5 (8th)
Net Rating: 0.0 (18th)
Strength of Schedule: 7th
Strengths: Defense / Experience / Clutch Play
Weaknesses: Offense? / Rebounding
Injuries have been the headlining act for the 2022 LA Clippers. Their best player, Kawhi Leonard, was likely out for the entire season. We knew that. But, here’s what he didn’t know;
- Paul George: Missed three months with UCL injury (elbow)
- Marcus Morris: Missed 26 games this season – 12 in November
- Norman Powell: Missed 22 games with a foot injury
Los Angeles has had a revolving door of lineups all year long. They’ve overcome that to make it to this point. Defense is the anchor for this unit. Even with their spare parts, Ty Lue captains a top ten unit.
But, that weak offensive output is misleading. Both Powell and George have returned from injury. LA has won 6 out of their last 7 games heading into tomorrow’s showdown. That hot finish was due to them having the best offense in the league. It’s nothing to get giddy about, but I don’t imagine offense will be a problem for this team.
Along with their hot finish, LA has a major intangible’s advantage. In terms of experience and resilience, the Clippers have a leg up on the younger T-Wolves. There are not too many coaches I would want in the playoffs over Tyronn Lue, who had a fantastic 2021 postseason run.
All of this is to say, don’t count out this team. Not again.
The Verdict
This game should be fun. The environment in Minnesota will be something else. That, along with other factors, is leaning me towards the Timberwolves. Sure, I may be a little biased, but I think they’re the better team.
Both teams have plenty of x-factors, and LA’s edge in experience matters at this stage, but I feel like Minnesota has the upper hand. They’re getting the 7th seed in the West, giving them a date with the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round.
7th Seed: Minnesota Timberwolves
(9) New Orleans Pelicans vs (10) San Antonio Spurs
This matchup doesn’t hold the same appeal that the other games do. When both teams are more than ten games below 0.500? God help us all.
Anyway, the Zion-less Pelicans are taking on the should-be rebuilding Spurs. Let’s see who’s coming out of this snoozefest.
New Orleans Pelicans
Record: (36-46)
Offensive Rating: 111.2 (19th)
Defensive Rating: 112.0 (18th)
Net Rating: -0.8 (21st)
Strength of Schedule: 11th
Strengths: Rebounding / Forcing Turnovers / 2nd Chance Points / Skimming Around The Edges
Weaknesses: 3-PT Shooting / 3-PT Defense
Similar to the Clippers, the numbers above are misleading. You may remember that this team started the season 1-12. Yes, that really happened. But, even without Zion Williamson, they clawed their way into the play-in tournament.
After trading for CJ McCollum at the trade deadline, this team has looked promising. The offense is fluid and filled with creators. Hidden gems like Jose Alvarado and Herb Jones have turned into regulars in the rotation.
The Pelicans are 13-10 since the All-Star Break. While their shooting is something to worry about, they do everything else well. They force turnovers, beat you around on the offense boards, and get out in transition.
And, I think they’re a step up compared to the Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: (34-48)
Offensive Rating: 111.9 (17th)
Defensive Rating: 111.7 (16th)
Net Rating: 0.2 (17th)
Strength of Schedule: 18th
Strengths: Ball Movement / Paint Scoring / Not Fouling / Interior Defense
Weaknesses: 3-PT Shooting / Defensive Rebounding / Close Games
{Rant starting}
The Spurs aren’t good, and they shouldn’t be here. Since the bottom of the West was a different level of atrocity, they made it here by accident. In my mind, they should be rebuilding. Instead, they’re just wasting their time.
{Rant over}
Anyway, the Spurs are atypical with the brand of basketball they play. They move the ball well, don’t foul, have a stingy defense, and they don’t make a lot of threes. Other than Dejounte Murray, I don’t love their options late in games. They have a lot of meh players, but not too many that stand out.
There’s a reason this team is 14 games under 0.500. They’re just not that good. I would be surprised if they beat New Orleans.
The Verdict
The Pelicans should win this game easily. Or else.
(8) LA Clippers vs (9)New Orleans Pelicans
This game will be closer than the previous one, but I have to go with the Clippers. In their game against Minnesota, they’re at a talent disadvantage. In this game, they have an advantage. That, on top of their experience, are clear reasons to pick this team to swipe the final playoff spot.
8th Seed: LA Clippers
Eastern Conference
#7 – Brooklyn Nets (44-38)
#8 – Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
#9 – Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
#10 – Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
Things in the Eastern Conference were a lot more jam-packed. We’ve known the four-team involved for months, but we didn’t know the order. It came down to the wire last night, but here’s where we stand. These games should give us more parody than the West.
(7) Brooklyn Nets vs (8) Cleveland Cavaliers
Both of these teams have had weird seasons. The Nets have had one of the most headache-inducing seasons ever but still find themselves with the top seed in the play-in. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been in a lull. Injuries have seen them fall to the 8th seed in the East. It’s the former title favorites versus the underdogs. Let’s do this.
Brooklyn Nets
Record: (44-38)
Offensive Rating: 113.2 (10th)
Defensive Rating: 112.3 (20th)
Net Rating: 0.9
Strength of Schedule: 13th
Strengths: Star Power / Isolation Scoring / Did I Mention Star Power?
Weaknesses: Size & Interior Defense / Depth
The Brooklyn Nets have been through a lot in 2022. From the status of their superstars to a revolving door of role players, this season has been one for the books in the worst way possible. But, things are finally looking up for this team.
Kyrie Irving can play anywhere except for Canada. Kevin Durant is playing like an MVP. And the cherry on top? Ben Simmons could come back in the playoffs. Muah.
Yes, this team has its flaws. I don’t like their frontcourt rotation or their defense in general. I think they’re too reliant on their stars. But they’re still dangerous. They have two of the best one-on-one scorers in NBA history. If Curry and Simmons return for the playoffs, I wouldn’t want to face this team.
They’re peaking at the right time, which is a bad thing for the rest of the league.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: (44-38)
Offensive Rating: 111.0 (20th)
Defensive Rating: 108.9 (5th)
Net Rating: 2.1 (13th)
Strength of Schedule: 21st
Strengths: Defense / Frontcourt / Darius Garland
Weaknesses: Offensive Creators / Talent / Depth / Shooting
Not to brag or anything, but I foresaw the struggle of this team. While they were overachieving, I thought to myself, ‘When will this end?’ The answer was after the All-Star Break.
Losing both Allen and Mobley to injury crippled their defense. Cleveland’s overall lack of offensive talent was exposed. Aside from Darius Garland, the scoring on this team was hard to come by. No offense, but Kevin Love and Cedi Osman don’t intimidate me.
Not having Jarrett Allen for this game is a crucial loss. The Cavs don’t have many perimeter defenders to deal with Durant and Irving. While their defense is their anchor, they may not be able to stop the Nets.
To win, the Cavs will have to make the game ugly. If the game becomes a shootout, I find it hard to believe that the Cavs can keep up. They just have to pray that Brooklyn’s stars miss a lot. That’s always a good game plan.
The Verdict
A few weeks ago, this sounded like lunacy. But I think the Nets are going to win this game handily. They’ve been trending upwards while the Cavs have been trending downwards. The Nets will face the Boston Celtics in the first round if they win. In other words, I need them to win so I can see that matchup.
7th Seed: Brooklyn Nets
(9) – Atlanta Hawks vs (10) Charlotte Hornets
What to expect from this game: A lot of scoring.
That’s all.
Atlanta Hawks
Record: (43-39)
Offensive Rating: 115.4 (2nd)
Defensive Rating: 113.7 (26th)
Net Rating: 1.7 (14th)
Strength of Schedule: 19th
Strengths: Scoring / Free Throws / Not Turning It Over / Mid-Range Shooting / Trae Young
Weaknesses: Defense / Paint Defense / Perimeter Defense / DEFENSE
The Hawks can score. Led by Trae Young, who had a season we haven’t seen since 1973, the Hawks finished the regular season hot. They were still disappointing overall, but things looked bleak a few months ago.
But, the Hawks’ defense is a cause for worry. While they have enough scorers to last a lifetime, their defense is horrendous. They don’t have any perimeter defenders, which doesn’t bode well against a team like Charlotte. Potentially not having John Collins is another blow to their already weak defense.
The Hawks are a boom or bust team. If their defense becomes passable, then they can go places. But if they can’t figure things out, their postseason will be brief.
Charlotte Hornets
Record: (43-39)
Offensive Rating: 113.6 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 113.1 (22nd)
Net Rating: 0.5 (16th)
Strength of Schedule: 9th
Strengths: Scoring / 3-PT Shooting / Passing / Forcing Turnovers / Getting Out In Transition / PITP
Weaknesses: Defense / Defensive Rebounding / 3-PT Defense / Frontcourt / Streakiness
If you thought I was pessimistic about the Hawks, get ready for the Hornets. They’re similar to the Hawks in a lot of ways, but their flaws shine even brighter.
Charlotte’s defense may be ranked higher, but they don’t have too many excellent one-on-one defenders. Mason Plumlee is going to be overmatched with those Trae Young pick-and-rolls. Ball and Rozier are going to have a tough time with Atlanta’s backcourt, as well.
Not having Gordon Hayward is massive. Oubre and Bridges will have to step up in his stead, but I think his veteran presence will be missed. They didn’t have Hayward for last year’s play-in tournament, and we all know how that ended.
The Hornets are the same team they were last year. My opinion that they need to make sweeping changes to their roster is unchanged. The front office has a long way to go to get into real competitiveness.
The Verdict
This game will have a lot of scoring. Whichever teams defense comes to play the most will likely win. To me, I think that the Hawks will have the easiest time doing so. Maybe they’ll finally get rid of that boredom.
7th Seed: Atlanta Hawks
(8) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (9) Atlanta Hawks
Even though the Cavs have been playing poorly as of late, I want to see them in the playoffs. Evan Mobley for president, baby! The Hawks don’t have the frontcourt to deal with all the size Cleveland has. And, this game would be at home for the Cavs.
All the more reason to pick the most surprising team of 2022 as the Eastern Conference’s 8th seed!
8th Seed: Cavaliers
My Postseason Bracket
Western Conference
- Phoenix
- Memphis
- Golden State
- Dallas
- Utah
- Denver
- Minnesota
- Los Angeles Clippers
Eastern Conference
- Miami
- Boston
- Milwaukee
- Philadelphia
- Toronto
- Chicago
- Brooklyn
- Cleveland
What Are Your Thoughts On My Predictions? Leave A Comment Down Below!
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