Who’s Going To The Finals? My Conference Finals Predictions!

The Phoenix Suns ruined my life. Before their historic game 7 defeat to Dallas, I was 11-0 on my playoff predictions. I will now have to settle for 11-1. Oh well. Anyway, we’re down to the final four. After the dust settled, we have the four best teams in the NBA. Here are my predictions for how the conference finals will pan out.

Plus, some finals matchups to ponder.

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#3 Golden State Warriors vs #5 Dallas Mavericks

The Golden State Warriors have been here before. For the fifth time in eight seasons, Golden State is a part of the final four. They’re looking for an elusive fourth title, one that’s been two years in the making.

As for Dallas, they’re the unlikeliest conference finals participant. Most people thought Dallas wouldn’t make it past the first round with Luka’s injury concerns. But, here they are, fresh off a stunning game 7 upset on the road against the top-seeded Suns.

If you like offense, this series is for you. Some of the best perimeter players in the league will be on display. So, who’s coming out on top?

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Golden State Warriors

First Round: (4-1) vs Denver
Second Round: (4-2) vs Memphis

There are two ways to look at the Golden State Warriors. On one end of the spectrum, they’re a machine. Their patented second-half runs to put away teams are inevitable. Golden State’s depth, experience, and coaching are second to none. They had an 8.6 net rating against Memphis if you dismiss their game five blowout.

But Golden State hasn’t played their best basketball during the playoffs. Offensively, they have a tendency to settle for threes. Turnovers continue to plague them – as they can’t seem to slow themselves down.

It’s safe to say we haven’t seen Golden State at their best in recent weeks. How can they unlock their true championship potential?

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Slowing Down Luka Doncic

At this point, it seems futile to talk about the notion of “slowing down Luka Doncic.” I’m convinced that he’s not human. If you’re Golden State, there’s not a lot you can do. Doncic is already one of the greatest postseason performers ever for a reason.

The Warriors don’t have too many one-on-one Doncic defenders. Andrew Wiggins is going to start out on Luka, but I don’t like that matchup. As good as he is, he’s just too frail to be guarding Luka. Not having a pest like Gary Payton hurts Golden State in this series.

Draymond Green could guard Luka, but he’s more valuable off-ball. That’s why I think leaving Doncic on his own, more or less, is the best option. Let Luka score all he wants, but take away his shooters. That makes Dallas much less potent on offense.

Either that or the Warriors could sell out on Doncic. Double team him, blitz him, the whole nine yards. Making somebody else other than Luka beat you is a sound strategy. But Dallas is used to that by now. They’re good at playing out of Doncic doubles.

That’s why guarding Luka is impossible. It’ll be interesting to see how Golden State approaches that unenviable task.

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Going Small Makes Way Too Much Sense

Golden State’s death lineup struggled to score against the Grizzlies. Still, going small makes so much sense in this series. Finally, the Warriors have a matchup where their lack of size isn’t a problem.

Using Draymond Green at center makes a lot of sense. Dallas plays at a snail’s pace. The Warriors’ death lineup plays at a pace of 106.7 – much faster than the style that the Mavs want to play. Dallas’ bigs aren’t that athletic.

Powell and Kleber move well in space, but they’re not freak athletes. That death lineup would have its way with Dallas. On top of that, you still have Wiggins and Draymond Green to deal with Doncic on the other end. Steve Kerr needs to unleash this death lineup onto Dallas.

I don’t think they can handle all the speed and shot creation that lineup brings to the table. Hell, forget the death lineup for a second. Porter, Kuminga, and Bjelica are other options to go small. In other words, going small is the way.

Dallas likes to go small, too. But, they don’t have lineups anywhere near as potent as Golden State’s. Going small could be the difference in this series for the Warriors.

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Errant Shots & Sloppiness

The reason the Warriors haven’t been playing at their best is simple. They take stupid shots, and they turn the ball over. Sloppiness has plagued the Warriors all year long. During the regular season, they ranked 29th in turnovers per game.

During the playoffs, turnovers have followed them. Against Memphis, they averaged 18.2 turnovers per game. That led to 20.3 points for Memphis. In the playoffs, giving up that many opportunities is a death sentence. One thing to note is that Dallas doesn’t force that many turnovers.

But, if you’re Golden State, you can’t throw away so many possessions. In game six against Memphis, most of their turnovers were forced passes into traffic. That can’t happen if they want to win this series. On the topic of forced, let’s talk about the Warriors’ shot profile this postseason.

Not to focus on one game too much, but the Warriors were settling in the closeout game six. Sure, the Warriors are allowed to shoot more threes than other teams. They have that luxury. But, sometimes, it feels like the Warriors are settling.

Their passing ability is second to none. And, they have so many guards who can get by their initial defender. So it’s frustrating to see them settle for contested, deep threes. Every possession matters this late into the postseason. Golden State of all teams should know that.

That’s why cutting down on the turnovers and stupid shots will be pivotal in this series. Don’t give Dallas free points. Make them earn it.

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Confidence

The Warriors have been here before. They’re more talented than Dallas. And they have home court advantage. If they can clean up the sloppiness, I think they should have no problems offensively in this series. We’ve yet to see if they can slow Dallas down, but the Warriors are favored in this series for a reason.

They should like their chances.

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Dallas Mavericks

First Round: (4-2) vs Utah
Second Round: (4-3) vs Phoenix

Dallas’ streakiness in the postseason should have cost them, but it hasn’t. One night, they’re hitting all their open threes. The next, they can’t hit the side of a barn. It’s hard to predict the production of Dallas’ role players on a game-by-game basis.

No matter, the Mavericks are here. When they get the ball rolling, they’re hard to stop. Now with a reliable defense as a backbone, Jason Kidd has this iteration of Luka-ball playing better than ever.

The underdogs are always dangerous in the playoffs. Dallas is the St. Peters of the NBA playoffs. Nobody expected them to be here, and it doesn’t make sense how they’re winning, but hey! Whatever works!

This series with the Warriors will be another dog fight, something that this team has come acustomed to. Here’s how Dallas can pull off another improbable upset.

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Extra Opportunities

The Golden State Warriors are sloppy. Sure, their frantic pace and passing are fun to watch. But, as we’ve seen throughout this season, it’s a curse as much as it is a gift. Dallas isn’t known for forcing turnovers. But that’s what they have to have to do in this series.

Now, there is a caveat to that. Overly aggressiveness costs you against the Warriors. If you try and jump one of their screens, Steph Curry will kindly hit a three-pointer as a thank you. Dallas can’t hunt for turnovers. If the Warriors are throwing the ball into the third row, let them. But you can’t let that get in the way of stopping all their complex actions.

Forcing turnovers would lead to easier looks in transition. At the very least, it would be extra opportunities to score. And there’s more where those came from. This postseason, the Warriors rank 15th in opponent offensive rebounding (11.8).

I think the goal for Dallas should be 20. Every single night, can Dallas get a combined 20 forced turnovers and offensive rebounds? If so, that’s 20 extra shots to try and keep up with the Warriors. It’d be another way to slow the game down and play at their own pace. 

20. That’s the number Dallas has to get to.

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Open Shots & Role Player Streakiness

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah	Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix
In Wins: 46% 3-PT on wide-open 3’s (23.0 3-PTA)	In Wins: 47% 3-PT on wide-open 3’s (21.5 3-PTA)
In Losses: 30% on wide-open 3’s (20.0 3-PTA)	In Losses: 37% on wide-open 3’s (17.0 3-PTA)

When Dallas wins, it’s because they hit their open threes. When they don’t win, they don’t make enough of them. It’s as simple as that. Can guys like Bullock, Finney-Smith, and Kleber hit the open shots they get? Golden State will willingly give those guys open looks. Can they make them pay?

As with their shooting, Dallas’ production from guys not named Luka has been shaky. One moment, Jalen Brunson can’t be stopped. The next, Spencer Dinwiddie looks like he would instead be trading crypto. Again, that sort of thing should have caught up to Dallas by now. But it hasn’t. 

To beat a championship tested team like Golden State, that can’t happen. These guys have to be consistent;

Jalen Brunson**
Dorian Finney-Smith
Maxi Kleber
Spencer Dinwiddie**
Davis Bertans

I asterisked Brunson and Dinwiddie for a few reasons. To start, both of them are capable of creating their own shot. They don’t need Luka to force-feed them looks like some others do. That’s why getting them going is so important.

You take off so much pressure from Luka if Jalen Brunson can get to the rim consistently. Or if Spencer Dinwiddie is hitting his open shots. To win this series, Luka Doncic can’t be a one-man show. That’s not going to work for a third straight time. It’s up to the others to win this series.

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Managing Mismatches

Dallas loves to hunt mismatches. In the first round, they went at everybody not named Rudy Gobert. Last series, they took on Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. Golden State has more mismatches for Dallas to take advantage of.

I imagine that stopping the splash trio will be hard in this series. So, what’s a possible solution? Tire them out on defense. Make Thompson, Curry, and Poole work on that end. It worked with Chris Paul – as he was rendered useless in the second half of that series.

But, as always, Dallas has to try and cover their mismatches as much as possible. At times, Luka Doncic is a target for defenses. Against a Warriors team that moves the ball so well, it’s hard to hide Doncic. So, how can Dallas hide their own mismatch?

Putting him on Andrew Wiggins is interesting. Wiggins gets a lot of driving opportunities thanks to the spacing Golden State’s guards create. Can Doncic close off said driving lanes instead of playing ‘ole’ defense?

Once again, mismatches will be vital to Dallas’ success. Can they not only expose some of Golden State’s while also hiding their own?

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Confidence

Dallas is used to playing the role of underdog. This is nothing new to them. They face an uphill battle, but they’re capable off an upset. They beat the Warriors three times during the regular season. And, they have the most dangerous thing in the world;

Confidence

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My Prediction

I don’t expect this series to be a defensive showdown. Scoring won’t be hard to find. That free-flowing pace favors the Warriors, who like to run a lot more than Dallas does. That, among other things, leads me to believe that the Warriors will win this series.

They’re better in almost every category than Dallas. While the Mavericks have Luka, the Warriors have Curry. I think that Dallas’ streakiness will cost them in this series. It won’t be a blowout, but the Warriors will win this one comfortably.

Warriors in Six

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#1 Miami Heat vs #2 Boston Celtics

The last time these two teams faced off, things were different, to say the least. We were playing in a bubble. Jimmy Butler was selling coffee. And Brad Stevens was coaching. A lot has changed since their six game epic.

Only four Miami players who earned minutes in that series remain on this roster. On the flip side, only six Celtics have carried over. Both of these teams are drastically different. At the same time, they’re eerily similar.

As always, both teams are built on the backs of stout defenses. The amount of length and versatility in this astonishing. And the pièce de résistance? We get to see two of the best x’s and o’s coaches – Udoka and Spoelstra – play mind games with each other.

Grab your popcorn, people. This will be fun.

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Miami Heat

First Round: (4-1) vs Atlanta
Second Round: (4-2) vs Philadelphia

Things got dicey there for a second against Philly, but Miami finished strong to get back to the conference finals. While I’ve been critical of them all year long, they have a puncher’s chance of getting back to the NBA Finals.

Anything is possible with their switchability on defense. From Adebayo to Tucker, opposing perimeter players have their work cut out for them. Some concerns arise with Kyle Lowry’s hamstring and their sluggish offense.

Sure, Jimmy Butler is having another ‘f u’ postseason scoring stretch, but is it enough? Miami’s next-man-up mentality will again be needed to take down this Celtics team. While they are the higher seed, Miami isn’t favored in this series.

That may be a good thing. We know how well this team thrives with some sunscreen on. Here’s what Miami can do to get back to the Finals.

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Shooting/Spacing

Miami struggled to score at times against Philadelphia. That was because they had next to no floor spacing. Without Duncan Robinson in the rotation, the floor spacing was limited. Tyler Herro’s struggles didn’t help with things.

But it’s not like Miami can reintroduce Robinson back into the lineup. He’s too much of a defensive liability. So, Miami will have to rely on Strus, Herro, and Vincent to space the floor for them. If not, they should be prepared for a long series.

An x-factor in this category is Lowry. His hamstring injury has made him a non-factor this postseason. Lowry won’t be a part of game one, and we don’t know when he’ll make his return. So, shooting will be hard to come by for Miami in this series.

And that’s a huge problem. Among other things, it makes it easier for Boston to guard them, which is not a sentence you want to be hearing. It’s right up there with hearing there will be a sixth Pirates of the Caribbean movie.

Anyway, and perhaps most importantly, this affects Jimmy Butler, Miami’s leading scorer. Butler doesn’t shoot many threes. It’s not his game. He’ll be far less effective with less room to work with. Again, that’s not a great sign for this series.

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Lineup Variety

One thing Miami has going for them is their lineup variety. Erik Spoelstra can play a lot of different styles and be successful. Miami can go small, big, defensive, offensive, etc. Think of an adjective, and the Heat probably have a lineup for you. Just maybe not young.

Combining lineups with defenders and shot creators is something to think about in this series. These lineups intrigue me the most;

Herro – Strus – Butler – Tucker – Adebayo (10 minutes this postseason) – bigger

Herro – Strus – Oladipo – Butler – Adebayo (27 minutes this postseason) – smaller

Lowry – Strus – Herro – Tucker – Adebayo (10 minutes this postseason) – lots of shot creation

Miami’s adaptability will be huge in this series. This is the counter to Boston’s lineups, where they have elite defenders around the horn. Whatever’s working in Miami’s favor can be amplified with these lineups. So, when you’re watching this series, take note of the lineup on the floor for the Heat.

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Blitzing & 3-PT Defense

Defensively, the Heat are just as versatile as the Celtics. The one difference in their schemes is blitzes. Miami loves to blitz pick-and-rolls, as Bam Adebayo can extend to the perimeter.

Similar to the Celtics, however, is their isolation forcing style. When the Heat switch, they don’t need to send help. Instead, they force you to beat your new defender one on one. They prevent drive and kick opportunities, which will be a problem for the Celtics.

Miami’s switching oriented defense breeds isolation “opportunities” for opposing teams. But, it’s a facade. Miami has allowed just 0.9 points per isolation this postseason. When they force you to isolate, good luck scoring.

Jayson Tatum should expect a variety of things in this series. Miami will blitz him and force him to beat their stout defenders one-on-one. On top of that, which is already a lot, Tatum won’t find it easy to hit open shooters. Have fun!

Another thing to watch out for is the 3-PT line. 43% of Miami’s opponent field goals come from outside. Their ideology is similar to that of the Bucks. They want you to take threes. But will they make the same mistakes as the Bucks? Will they allow Williams and White to beat them from outside? Hopefully not.

It’s a dangerous game to give your opponent free threes. We saw what happened to the Bucks in game 7. It’s a slippery slope, and the Celtics are the best shooting team Miami has faced this postseason.

This series is going to be a defensive chess match. Let’s see how much Miami decides to blitz Celtics ball-handlers, and if they’ll allow a crap ton of threes.

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Confidence

The Heat are the underdogs, but they have the formula to pull off an upset. With homecourt advantage and that defense, anything is possible. Having a coach as good as Spoelstra doesn’t hurt, either. This series will come down to Miami’s shooting and ability to contain Boston’s drive and kick actions.

Things didn’t go so hot in the regular season, but hey, let’s see if Miami can step up to the plate.

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Boston Celtics

First Round: (4-0) vs Brooklyn
Second Round: (4-3) vs Milwaukee

The Boston Celtics have thrown me in a whirlwind this postseason. I said that the Celtics would win it before the playoffs started. I then questioned my sanity after their crushing game five loss to Milwaukee at home that seemingly sunk their magical season.

But, as they’ve done all year long, they bounced back. And now, the Celtics get another chance for revenge against Miami. Boston squandered opportunities in the bubble to take down this team. This time around, they’re hoping for different results.

Since January, Boston has been the best team in the NBA. They don’t have a defensive liability in their rotation. And, thanks to Jayson Tatum’s leap to super stardom, the offense has an ultimate trump card.

While they’re the lower seed, the Celtics are heavily favored in this series. And they should be. Here’s how they can exact sweet revenge on Miami.

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Live By The 3, Die By The 3 (Again)

The Milwaukee Bucks dared the Celtics to beat them from outside. So they did. They’ll have to do that again in this series against Miami. We already went over Miami’s game plan for Boston. It looks like this;

• Lots of threes

Once again, the Celtics will live and die by the 3. I don’t know how to feel about that. Boston had an ugly tendency to settle for perimeter jump shots in the Bucks series. At times, they refused to attack the basket. That’s something they’ll have to avoid in this series.

So, shooting threes is the answer. But there’s a way in which the Celtics have to do it. They can’t just chuck up 40+ threes. Those looks have to come in the flow. Miami wants the Celtics to have possessions that feature few passes and an ill-advised shot.

Patience is the name of the game for the Celtics. We could also see them shoot more mid-range jump shots than they’re accustomed to. Whatever their solution is, Boston can’t do what they did in game one against Milwaukee. If that happens, they may as well concede the series.

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Controlling The Screens & Jimmy Butler

Miami runs a lot of handoff/screening actions for their shooters. Even without Duncan Robinson getting minutes, Max Strus is a threat in that area. This postseason, Miami has run the most handoffs (8.4 per game).

But, there’s reason to believe the Celtics can stop those screens. The Celtics have allowed just 0.75 points per possession on handoffs this postseason. On top of that, the Celtics have the wings & backcourt to fight through everything Miami throws their way.

Marcus Smart’s foot injury is a little concerning, but I think the Celtics will be fine on those screens. An interesting tid bit is how the Celtics decide to play Bam Adebayo. Will they sag off him entirely? I wouldn’t recommend doing that, but they might do it if they believe in their guards enough.

Jimmy Butler has been going off during the postseason. The Celtics have slowed down Durant and Giannis this postseason. Not to be mean, but Butler is the worst of those three players, by a mile. Still, he’s the ticker for Miami’s offense.

Grant Williams is physical enough to deal with Butler in the post. So is Al Horford, but I don’t know if he’s agile enough for Butler. Again, I don’t love the idea of Jayson Tatum guarding Butler for long stretches. I think it would take away from his offense too much.

Funneling Butler away from the basket and towards the baseline is how to stop him. His shot chart this postseason isn’t overly complicated;

Butler has been shooting 69% in the restricted area this postseason. Nice. 45% of his shot attempts have come right at the rim. Forcing him away from the basket is the way to slow him down. Make him beat you by making long twos.

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I Am Better Than You (W/ Hunting Mismatches)

Mismatches will be harder to find than they were in the Bucks series. You’re not going to find a Grayson Allen ripe for the picking. The worst defender in Miami’s rotation is Tyler Herro. Other than that, Miami has no weaknesses on their defense.

Jayson Tatum’s best chance for “easy” shots will be against Herro, Vincent, or Strus. If I’m Boston, I have to get Tatum as many easy looks as possible. Tatum has to set more screens than he did in the Milwaukee series.

On top of that, guys like Tatum and Brown have to play like All-Stars. In game six, Jayson Tatum made constested shot after contested shot against Milwaukee. Since Miami forces so many isolations, he’s going to have to do that sort of thing again.

That’s not a game plan, it’s just hoping that the best player in this series will be just that…the best.

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Confidence

The Celtics are favored in this series for a reason. They’re deeper, and have the two best offensive talents in this series. They may start Game 1 sluggishly thanks to the quick turnaround from the Bucks series. But, in the end, I think they have the clear upper hand in this series.

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My Prediction

I think that the Celtics are going to win this series handily. They’ve been playing great as of late, and they’re a much better team than Miami. Unless I’m missing something, Miami’s lack of perimeter shooting is going to burn them in this series.

Unless the Celtics continue to fight the injury bug, I think a trip to the Finals is all but guaranteed.

Celtics In Six

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The Possible NBA Finals Matchups, Ranked

No matter if my predictions come true, I want an entertaining finals matchup. Who doesn’t. We have four possible finals matchups, all of which are varying degrees of entertaining. Based on star power and story lines, here they are ranked;

1. Warriors vs Celtics – The Celtics would be going for banner #18. And the Warriors would be going for their fifth title in five seasons. Plus, Jayson Tatum’s coming-out party continues? Two great coaches? And the Celtics and Warriors have had some classic regular-season matchups over the years. What’s not to love?
   
2. Mavericks vs Celtics – Luka Doncic vs Jayson Tatum? This Finals matchup would officially be the start of a new, non-Lebron era of basketball. Who doesn’t want to watch that? And, we get to see Boston’s defense versus Dallas’ offense. Muah
   
3. Warriors vs Heat – A battle of two teams with cultures that rival that of utopias. Apparently. These two teams barely missed each other’s championship windows back in the day, so think of this as a hypothetical matchup that happens nearly a decade later.
   
4. Mavericks vs Heat – Even this matchup wouldn’t be that bad. In 2006, Dallas lost because the officiating was rigged against them. In 2011, they pulled off an improbable comeback against the Heatles. This would be their third matchup in the Finals since the turn of the century – each of which were completely different from each other.

In short, there’s not a matchup where NBA fans lose this season. Yay!

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What Are Your Thoughts On My Predictions? Leave A Comment Down Below!

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