Who’s Going to Win The Bubble Conference Finals?
The four teams who made it to the 2020 Bubble conference finals are back. I guess, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
The Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, and Miami Heat all played in the 2020 conference finals in the Disney Bubble. Now, three (long) years later, they’re facing off again. A few weeks ago, it didn’t look like these matchups would happen. The Lakers had to get through the defending champs. Miami needed two play-in games just to make the postseason. Boston trailed 3-2 against the 76ers before storming back to steal the series.
And now, after a month of full-blown chaos, some of the NBA’s biggest names will face off for a chance to play on its biggest stage. Let’s see who’s going to book their ticket to the finals.
(1) Denver Nuggets vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers
Three years ago, the Lakers were the overwhelming favorite in this matchup. Denver was the up-and-comer in the West — fresh off back-to-back 3-1 series comebacks. Now, the tables have turned. The Nuggets have looked like the best team in the conference this postseason. LA, though, hasn’t been far behind them. While they became just the second 7th seed to make a conference finals (1986-87 Supersonics), the Lakers have recaptured the formula that got them their 2020 title.
This series will come down to one matchup: Nikola Jokic vs Anthony Davis. These transcendent bigs are the two best players in this series (sorry, Lebron) and will dictate this series. The last time these two teams played, LA had the luxury of having Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, and Davis beat up Jokic i the post. In this series, AD is their only line of defense. Nobody else can match Jokic’s physicality.
Trying to double/trap Jokic is a bad idea. That dude can pick apart any coverage and find open shooters on the perimeter. While Davis has been the best defender in these playoffs, that has come as an overhang defender. Davis has made a living ignoring the likes of Green, Looney, and Xavier Tillman and just swatting everything that moves around the rim.
Will he be as effective when he’s being asked to guard the 2x MVP one-on-one? Another headache for this LA defense will be in the pick-and-roll. Golden State found their most success offensively when they spammed high pick-and-rolls with Curry. They constantly pulled Davis away from the rim in these actions. Denver has been the most effective team in the PnR this postseason, scoring 1.11 points per possession. And the Nuggets run PnRs all the time, unlike the Warriors.
With Jokic’s ability to stretch the floor, AD’s drop coverage won’t be viable in this series. The good news is the Lakers have the guards (Reaves and Schroder) to pester Jamal Murray. Vanderbilt matches up well with Michael Porter Jr. Still, this series will test LA’s defense unlike their last two opponents.
Meanwhile, Denver has plenty of defenders to throw at Lebron James. Aaron Gordon will be Lebron’s primary defender, along with Bruce Brown and KCP. Jokic and Gordon will spend most of their time on the Brow. Getting Jokic in early foul trouble may be the best way to slow him down. The Lakers are very adept at drawing fouls (aka flopping). Increasing the amont of non-Jokic minutes in this series is always a good thing. Even in the playoffs, the Nuggets aren’t the same team when Jokic isn’t on the floor.
To win this series, the Lakers need James and Davis to dominate every night. But, in the high Denver altitude with games every other day, that’s difficult for anybody, much less these two. I don’t think the Lakers can win this series if Davis isn’t bringing his A-game every night.
While the Lakers have been on a role, the Nuggets have the upper hand in this series. Both teams have struggled on the road, so Denver’s homecourt advantage is massive. Denver has won without great production from their bench. Meanwhile, the Lakers need Hachimura and Reaves to not miss to stay in games.
Given the Lakers’ inconsistency and how much of a mismatch Jokic poses, I don’t see a world where Denver loses this series.
Pick: Nuggets in 6
(2) Boston Celtics vs (8) Miami Heat
There are two ways this series will go. Either the Celtics will dominate this series (like they should), or the zombified Miami Heat will hang around and make things uncomfortably close. The latter seems more likely.
On paper, Boston is far better than Miami. This was the case last year, too, and this time around, Miami is missing Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. While Jimmy and Bam will keep Miami relatively competitive, Boston has a lot of depth and pieces to counter whatever scheme Erik Spoelstra cooks up.
If Jayson Tatum continues what he did in the last five quarters against the 76ers, it’s hard to see the Celtics losing. Joe Mazzulla found a lot of success starting Robert Williams alongside Al Horford. It clogged the paint and made it impossible to get good looks at the rim.
A similar strategy will be valuable in this series. Miami’s ridiculously hot shooting cooled off considerably against New York. Assuming they don’t shoot nearly 50% from three as a team again, scoring will be hard to come by for the Heat. They were the 25th most efficient offense in the league this season, while the Celtics were the second-best defense.
Miami needs Strus, Lowry, and Kevin Love to boost their scoring. I’m going out on a limb and saying that prayer won’t be answered. Strus has to replace Herro’s scoring load, and Lowry and Love need to de-age about six years. You can see why I’m skeptical of Miami’s chances in this series.
Of course, the Miami Heat will not make this easy. And neither will the Celtics. They have a propensity to blow games in the fourth quarter and become stagnant for long stretches. Boston doesn’t attack the rim as much as they should, so when they’re not making their outside shots, things can get ugly.
It’ll be interesting to see how Mazzulla dictates his bench in this series. Grant Williams has hardly played this postseason, but he seems like a good way to stretch the floor and be physical with Adebayo. With how cold Al Horford has been, I could see him getting more minutes in this series.
Miami is going to force the Celtics to beat them. They’re not going to beat themselves up with turnovers and bad execution. If the Celtics play the way they did against the 76ers, this series will be closer than it should be. ESPN’s predictor says that Boston has a 97% chance to reach the finals. That predictor doesn’t take into account the stupidity of the C’s.
The Heat have been successful because of their shooting, execution, and control of the tempo. Unless Jimmy Butler averages 45 points a game (not out of the realm of possibilites) or the Heat shoot like 50% from three, I don’t think they can cover the difference in this series. Boston is just too good and too deep.
Don’t expect this series to be a cakewalk, but another Heat upset would be incredibly unlikely (and just as impressive.
Pick: Celtics in 6
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