Will We See More Upsets In The Second Round?
The first round of the playoffs was pure and utter chaos. As we enter the second round, can we expect more upsets? It’s not impossible.
Welcome to the second round of the NBA Playoffs, everybody. I think I can speak for everyone when I say that the first round was complete and utter chaos. We saw a #1 seed get upset. A #2 seed also got upset. There were classic games, electric atmospheres, and of course, injuries.
In any sense, given all the chaos we saw in the round before, we’ve got ourselves a fascinating second round of the playoffs. There are a lot of boom-or-bust teams that could very well put together a deep playoff run or crash and burn instantaneously. Let’s see how each of these series is going to turn out.
(1) Denver Nuggets vs (4) Phoenix Suns
Denver Leads Series 1-0
If you like offense, you’ve come to the right place. Denver and Phoenix had easy first-round series where they cruised to gentlemen’s sweeps. That sets up a bout between two one-sided offensive juggernauts.
Neither team is stellar defensively, nor does either side has great depth, although I’d give the edge to Denver in that category. I’d rather have Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, and Jeff Green over Landry Shamet, Josh Okogie, and Bismack Biyombo. (I think I just threw up in my mouth a little reading out those last three names).
In any event, whichever starting unit plays better in this series will likely win. It helps that both teams have some of the best starting lineups in the NBA. Before this series started, I liked Denver because of their chemistry, cohesion, and homecourt advantage. Game 1 reinforced those narratives. Led by Jamal Murray, the Nuggets blitzed the Suns in the first half and never looked back. They checked all the boxes they needed to if they want to make a deep playoff run.
Phoenix, on the other hand, didn’t look great in the series opener. That loss opens up a lot of questions about their chances in this series. Let’s start with the most important thing for either side: the non-Jokic minutes.
For the 10-12 minutes that Jokic isn’t on the floor, the Nuggets are vulnerable. If you want to beat the Nuggets, you must capitalize when Jokic gets his rest. In game one, the Suns didn’t do that. Michael Malone rolled out some weirder lineups that he hasn’t used much in the regular season, but they worked.
Denver was a +4 in the first half without their best player on the floor. That’s massive. Whoever controls these invaluable minutes gains a huge advantage in this series. If Denver continues what they did in game one, you might as well wrap this series up right now. To tilt the series in their favor, Phoenix must control those moments.
The other reason Denver cruised to victory was their advantage in the math game. The Nuggets had 17 more field goal attempts than the Suns. Phoenix coughed up 16 turnovers and allowed 16 offensive rebounds on the other end, too. It’s nearly impossible for the Suns to win when they’re giving up that many extra possessions.
The more important aspect of the math in this series is shot selection, however. Phoenix lives in the mid-range. They don’t take many 3-pointers. In fact, the Suns are shooting the least threes this postseason by a mile. The next closest team (New York) is taking seven more attempts than the Suns.
Meanwhile, Denver is shooting more threes, with the majority of them being open. In game one, Denver took 14 more triples than the Suns, and they made nine more. Assuming my math is correct, three points is more than two points. If the Suns don’t start shooting more threes, it’s hard for me to see them winning this series. Denver doesn’t have to be all that accurate to stay in games. Meanwhile, Booker and Durant can’t miss just for Phoenix to keep up with Denver.
That’s the final straw in what isn’t shaping up to be a particularly close series. Denver is the better and (slightly) deeper team. Phoenix doesn’t have an answer for Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray. The Suns have the starpower to make things competitive, but I don’t think an upset is imminent.
Pick: Nuggets in 6
(6) Golden State Warriors vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers
Adam Silver and the NBA’s oddsmakers are salivating at this outcome. Throughout the regular season, it seemed unlikely that the defending champs or the Lakers would make much noise in the postseason. But here we are. Los Angeles bullied Memphis in the first round, and Golden State survived a riveting seven-game series with the Kings.
That sets up a fifth matchup between Lebron James and Stephen Curry in the playoffs. This is the first time that a championship isn’t on the line. Still, the stakes are high as both franchises try and squeeze one more title out of their aging cores.
Both the Warriors and Lakers like to play with some pace. Still, expect scoring in the half-court to be difficult in this series. LA will sag off Draymond and Looney to clog everything up for the Warriors. Golden State will likely do the same to Jarred Vanderbilt and even Anthony Davis to some degree.
While the Warriors had uncontested layups against the Kings, Anthony Davis will make life much harder in the paint. Davis was otherwordly against Memphis and will surely give the Warriors similar problems. I doubt Draymond will be able to score 20 points in a game again. Shooting and individual creation now become even more important for the dubs. They need Poole, DiVincenzo, and Thompson to play better than they did against the Kings.
If that doesn’t happen, everything will again fall on the shoulders of Steph Curry. Curry played big minutes against the Kings, and with only one day of rest in between every game in this series, this series is a war of attrition for both sides. Lebron James was playing more off-ball than ever against Memphis. You can expect more of that in this series.
Taking possessions off won’t be easy to come by for the likes of Jordan Poole and D’Angelo Russell. While both guards are good sparks offensively, they will be targeted throughout this series. The Warriors will involve Russell in everything, making him make split-second decisions. The same goes for Poole. You know Lebron James will try and get switched onto Poole whenever he can.
The battle between Looney and Davis on the boards will also be vital. Looney single-handily turned the tide of game 7 for the Warriors against the Kings. He had multiple 20-rebound games in that series. Anthony Davis and the rest of the Lakers will have to keep Looney and the rest of the Warriors off the offensive glass. Giving the Warriors extra possessions is never a good idea.
Speaking of possessions, the math battle comes into play again. Turnovers were present in most of Golden State’s losses against the Kings. If the Lakers can force turnovers and then get out in transition against a non-set defense, they can avoid having to get through a stout Warriors half-court defense.
The last thing to think about in this series is the non-Curry minutes, or Curry Calculus, as I’ve been calling it. Steve Kerr failed to give Curry rest in the first round because the Warriors were awful whenever he was on the bench. Given Golden State’s lack of depth, I’m not sure the Warriors will be able to get Curry that much rest in this series, either.
There are a lot of ways I could see this series going. But I think I’m leaning toward the Warriors. I trust them more, and they have homecourt advantage in this series. The Lakers thrived when Memphis gifted them turnovers and easy looks. Golden State, a team going for their fifth title in a decade, won’t give them the same opportunities.
For the Lakers to win, either Lebron or AD has to outplay Steph Curry. I’m not sure anybody on the planet could do that right now. Add in homecourt advantage for a Warriors team that thrives at the Chase Center, and I think Golden State has enough to win this toss-up of a series.
Pick: Warriors in 7
(2) Boston Celtics vs (3) Philadelphia 76ers
With or without Joel Embiid, the Celtics have Philly’s number. Now with the news that Embiid is “doubtful” for Game 1 (and likely far from 100% for the rest of the series), the Celtics will mop the floor with the 76ers. Boston is a bad matchup for Philly (and just about every other team, really).
Philadelphia will struggle to keep up with all of Boston’s perimeter options. They don’t have the wings/guards to keep up with Boston. Whenever the Celtics go small and have three/four guards in the game, it spells trouble for Philadelphia.
When Al Horford is in the game to space the floor out, the Celtics will have endless room to pick apart the 76ers. And if Embiid isn’t there to clean things up at the rim? Tatum and Brown feasted against Atlanta and will have a similarly easy time in this series. PJ Tucker can’t guard both of them, and I don’t like the idea of Tobias Harris or (god forbid) Jaden McDaniels checking either of the All-NBA wings.
Without Embiid at 100%, James Harden will have to take on a bigger load offensively. Harden had some success against Boston in the regular season. The Celtics aren’t likely to sell out on Harden’s drives if Embiid is playing. But, if Embiid is forced to miss time, the Celtics will ramp up the pressure on Harden. I don’t think this version of Harden can handle that.
Tyrese Maxey will be hunted relentlessly. He was superb against the Nets, but he sticks out in this series that features so much size and length. Tatum and Brown will look to attack Maxey as they did to Atlanta’s backcourt in the last series. To reiterate, this is a bad matchup for the 76ers. Boston won the season series 3-1. Their only loss came from a 52-point game from Joel Embiid, paired with the absences of Timelord and Jaylen Brown.
Even if Embiid were fully healthy, I would pick the Celtics in this series. They have the bodies to take care of everybody outside of Embiid. And their smaller, quicker pace will give Philadelphia fits. The 76ers don’t have the personnel to deal with this team. But, given Embiid’s health, Boston should cruise to the conference finals.
Assuming this series goes to plan, it’ll be another second-round exit for the 76ers. For those of you keeping track at home, Joel Embiid has yet to advance past this round in his career. I don’t think that streak will this year. Enjoy that MVP, though.
Pick: Celtics in 5
(5) New York Knicks vs (8) Miami Heat
Miami Leads Series 1-0
Bring on the rock fight! This series features two of the most physical teams in the league. It’s a throwback to the 90s and early 2000s. These teams have had their fair share of intense battles back in the day. This series should be similarly riveting and exciting.
But injuries may get in the way of everything. For New York, almost their whole roster is banged up. Julius Randle missed game one with that bothersome ankle sprain of his that rendered him ineffective against Cleveland. Quintin Grimes is battling through an injured shoulder. Mitchell Robinson has been dealing with hip pain.
The most important injury occurred in the late stages of Game 1. Jimmy Butler, who single-handily dragged Miami to this series in the first place, sprained his ankle in the fourth quarter. He was walking gingerly the rest of the way and hardly moved on either end. Butler’s status for the rest of this series could make or break Miami’s chances.
Both teams will struggle to score. This will be a grind-it-out series without lots of scoring. Neither team shot the ball well in game one. New York dominated the paint in the first half, but the Heat packed the paint in the second half and dared the Knicks to beat them from the perimeter. They couldn’t.
Miami has the edge in the shooting department. Even if their ridiculous shooting doesn’t carry over from the first round, it’s not like the Knicks have been shooting well this postseason. Outside of Jalen Brunson, leaving New York open from beyond the arc has been a good strategy.
Speaking of Brunson, he has to play better for New York to have a chance to advance in this series. The Heat don’t have a lot of options to stick with him one-on-one. No offense to Gabe Vincent, but I don’t think he can stick with Brunson. Butler could have been put on Brunson at times, but that seems even more unlikely with his ankle injury.
If Butler isn’t 100%, the Heat need more offense from guys like Lowry, Vincent, Adebayo, and Strus. Lowry and Vincent were superb in game one, and they’ll have to continue that in this series. Miami needs some production from their backcourt to match what the Knicks offer.
The x-factor is Bam Adebayo. Adebayo was quiet against the Bucks and only took 13 field goal attempts in game one of this series. If Adebayo can punish New York in the middle of the floor with his floater and passing abilities, he could turn the tide of this series. With everybody injured, this seems like an opportunity for Bam to redeem some of his past playoff shortcomings.
Expect a lot of ugly basketball in this series. Both teams are hurt, and they aren’t particularly good on offense, either. Every game will depend on each side’s shooting and individual creation. The Heat have the edge in that department. Even with Jimmy Butler’s ankle injury, he’s the best player in this series. Miami has the clear coaching advantage. That should be enough for them to win this series.
Eighth seed or not, the Heat have captured lightning in a bottle. And I think Miami is going to get back to the conference finals. This series should be another toss-up and a good dose of nostalgia for everybody’s parents.
Pick: Heat in 7
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