Predicting The First Round of the NBA Playoffs!
Now it’s really time for the NBA Playoffs. The play-in tournament is over, and now the best part of the NBA season can begin. A time filled with heart attacks, bad takes, and incredible mood swings. And boy, am I ready! Today it’s time to predict the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
Last season, I was very good at making predictions. I went 6-2 in the first round, and I am looking to improve upon that mark. (Ignore the fact that I picked the Blazers over the Nuggets last season. Just ignore it).
Anyway, here are my first-round predictions.
Eastern Conference
Last year, I joked about this conference being the “Leastern Conference.” Well, I can’t do that anymore. Not only is the East more well-rounded, they’ve gotten a lot more competitive than in previous seasons.
So, sorry for bullying you, Eastern Conference. Here’s what your standings look like after 82 games.
- Miami Heat
- Boston Celtics
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Toronto Raptors
- Chicago Bulls
- Brooklyn Nets
- Atlanta Hawks
#1 Miami Heat (4) vs #8 Atlanta Hawks (1)
This series will not be competitive whatsoever. The Heat beat the Hawks 3/4 times they played this season, and most of the time, they weren’t healthy. Bam Adebayo was awesome against the Hawks, and now he doesn’t have to deal with Clint Capela down low.
Trae Young was turnover prone against Miami, and will experience hell in the forms of Tucker, Butler, Lowry, and the aforementioned Adebayo. On top of that, you know Miami will pick on Young on the other end. All in all, Trae Young is in for one hell of a time.
Atlanta doesn’t stand much of a chance. Their only chances of winning are forcing turnovers and holding Jimmy Buckets in check. The only problem is that they don’t force any turnovers, and their defense sucks. On the other side, Miami has the upper hand in most categories. They will make Atlanta their bitch by the end of the series.
The Hawks’ offense may give them one win, but they won’t get more than that. Heat in five.
Heat Win 4-1
#2 Boston Celtics (4) vs #7 Brooklyn Nets (2)
Before the season, if you had told me these two teams would be playing in the postseason, I would have assumed it would have been a repeat of last season. Oh, how things have changed.
The Boston Celtics have been the best team in the East for four months. Their defense has turned them into a juggernaut, Robert Williams or not. They’re riding an incredible high, and when fully healthy, they’re not a bad bet for the NBA Finals.
The Nets, on the other hand, have been as unsteady as things get. From Irving’s part-time status to Harden’s departure, nothing has been ordinary about this season. Still, the Nets have been rolling as of late. They bullied the Cavaliers to get this first-round matchup.
Bruce Brown is right when he says the Nets aren’t the same team when they don’t have Robert Williams. But Kevin Durant is also right when he says the Nets shouldn’t have that attitude. And Kyrie Irving is right because Boston is a scorned girlfriend?
Here are my thoughts on what should be a fascinating series.
Boston Celtics
Here’s what the Boston Celtics have been up to since January 1st;
- 34-12 record (3rd in NBA)
- #2 offense
- #1 defense
- 12.7 net rating
- Jayson Tatum’s MVP Candidacy
- First in opponent FG%
- #1 in opponent PPG
- #1 paint defense
The Celtics absolutely torched the rest of the league for the past four months. They were dismantling every team in their path, and it was fun. Yes, the Robert Williams injury was a gut punch. But not only will he return during the postseason, I still think the Celtics are lethal.
This series without him against the Nets will be tough, no doubt about it. But, we need to remember just how good this team is when they’re clicking. Here’s how they can win this series.
Superstar Defense
Of course, winning this series will come down to how the Celtics can handle the Nets’ superstars. Here’s how they did in the regular season;
Durant – 2 games – 29.0 points – 5.0 rebounds – 8.0 assists – 66% TS – dear lord
Irving – 1 game – 19.0 points – 4.0 rebounds – 6.0 assists – 52% TS – not dear lord
Let’s start with Durant. Robert Williams spent a lot of time on him when these two teams matched up. Another obvious matchup would be Jayson Tatum, but do the Celtics want to do that? I have no doubt that Tatum will guard KD a lot in this series, but that’s a big ask. To not only ask Tatum to carry the offense but also cover the best offensive player in this series? That’s a big ask.
Doubling Durant is the next best option. Just send bodies at him, and push him away from his post-ups. Better yet, double him where he can’t see you. If Durant can’t prepare for the doubles, they become a lot more effective. I think that Grant Williams could be someone the Celtics experiment with. His lateral quickness isn’t great, but he’s very physical.
Boston’s break-in case of emergency option is Marcus Smart. That’s not that bad if we’re being honest. Speaking of Smart, expect him to be on Irving for the majority of this series. Jaylen Brown is another option.
But, the key is KD. Getting the ball out of his hands will be crucial in this series. Not to Kyrie at all, but slowing down KD as much as possible has to be the #1 priority for head coach Ime Udoka.
Make Jayson Tatum Successful
The Nets will do everything in their power to make sure JT doesn’t have another 54-bomb on their heads. They will trap him, double-him, the whole nine yards. The Celtics have to play off this aggression. Putting JT in favorable matchups has to be done.
Using Tatum as a screener is a great idea. With Curry and Kyrie sharing the floor, there should be plenty of opportunities for Tatum to get a small on him. If the Celtics want to get really risky, they could test KD. While he’s a good defender, making him work defensively is sure to make his offensive game somewhat regress.
What the Celtics cannot do is give the ball to Tatum and ask him to beat the Nets one-on-one. They have to be more surgical than that. Give Tatum post-ups. Use him off-ball. Hell, using him as a decoy is better than leaving him out to dry on the perimeter.
With that being said, Tatum has to be decisive. He can’t take jump shots if they’re not falling. The Nets’ frontcourt is weak. Settling for perimeter shots is what they want him to do. He has to push the onus to them, not the other way around.
When the Nets inevitably double him, he has to make the correct read. He’s shown he’s capable of doing that over the past few months, as his playmaking has blossomed. If Tatum plays to the level he’s capable of, Boston is impossible to stop.
The “Weaklings”
Bruce Brown
Andre Drummond
Grant Williams
Marcus Smart
Al Horford
In a series filled with All-Stars, these are the five weaklings. Whoever wins the battle to hide and expose them will likely win this series. Here’s what that would look like for the Celtics.
Bruce Brown loves to act as a screener, a “rover” in Brooklyn’s offense. He gets the ball a lot whenever the superstars are trapped. Boston has to make him make break-neck decisions, like this one;
Boston’s defense after they get the ball out of the stars’ hands will be a turning point in this series. Now, it’s time for some hide and seek.
Grant Williams and Al Horford don’t strike fear into the heart of defenses. But they can. Williams shot 47% from the corner this year. Al Horford is known as one of the best long-range shooting bigs in the league.
Both of those guys offer Boston some much-needed floor spacing. That forces the likes of Drummond and Claxton not to camp in the paint gives driving lanes for the Jay’s.
Now, my last weakling may have you wondering. Marcus Smart? Why is he here? Well, it’s simple. Loose cannons tend to take you out of games just as much as they keep you in them. Smart is going to win defensive player of the year. He’s done a much better job at not taking eight ill-advised threes per game like he used to, but that doesn’t mean it’s out of his system.
Sure, if he’s wide-open, he should take the shot. But whenever possible, especially down the stretch, he has to make sure the ball is getting where it needs to go. He’s done that for the past few months, and now it’s time to do that in the playoffs.
Confidence
Not having Robert Williams takes a lot away from the Celtics on both sides of the ball. But there are a lot of ways they can pick apart this Nets team, one that has a lot of holes. It’s easy to forget that this team is more than their superstars.
Boston shouldn’t be overly confident about this series, but they have to come in like they’re the better team, which I think they are.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets caught fire when they needed to. A year filled with headaches has finally given them aspirin. Kyrie Irving can play at home and on the road. Durant, Seth Curry, and maybe even Ben Simmons are healthy. Brooklyn is figuring things out when they need to.
This matchup with the Celtics is tough. But there’s a reason no one in the East wanted to be the #2 seed. With Durant and Irving, two of the most electrifying scorers ever, it’s hell every day.
They’ve had one of the weirdest seasons in NBA history, but somehow, there’s still a path for this team to go far in the playoffs.
Containing Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum averaged 29.5 points and 6.3 rebounds on 64% this season against the Nets. That obviously can’t happen if the Nets want to contend in this series. Putting Durant on Tatum seems like the most logical way to slow him down.
But it’s the same thing I talked about earlier. Do you want to put your best offensive player on the other teams’ best offensive player? Durant could tire himself out guarding JT, meaning his offensive output would be hindered.
The Nets have to make Tatum beat them with his passing. While he’s improved in that area, he’s far from perfect. Well-timed double teams could force errant passes.
The attitude coming into this series has to be anybody, but Jayson Tatum has to beat us.
Playing Off of Boston’s Aggression
KD and Kyrie are going to face a swarming buzzsaw all series long. Knowing that, the Nets can take advantage of Boston’s aggression and make them think twice about doubling their superstars.
Remember Bruce Brown, the “rover.” I think he’s the missing piece for this Nets team. He played great against the Cavs in the play-in tourney, and they need him to play like that consistently. Whenever he gets the ball in the middle of a floor with a 4v3 or a 3v2 in front of him, he has to make a play.
Guys like Seth Curry and Patty Mills also come to mind when talking about Boston’s aggression. These two guys will get open looks if the Celtics double the Nets on the perimeter. So, they have to be ready and do what they do best. SHOOT.
The “Others”
Seth Curry
Bruce Brown
Andre Drummond
Patty Mills
Nicolas Claxton
Goran Dragic
Cam Thomas??
How much offensive production can the Nets get from these guys? They’ll get the majority of the open looks, but can they make the Celtics pay? To win this series, these guys have to contribute.
And, last but not least, I’ll talk about Ben Simmons. Since I don’t know how much he’s going to play in this series, if at all, I don’t want to do a deep-dive on him. But, getting Simmons would give the Nets their Tatum stopper.
Simmons would also serve as a playmaking upgrade over Bruce Brown. Simmons could be in the middle of the floor, the recipient of all those drop-off passes down low. But to expect more than average production from someone who hasn’t played basketball in a year is ludicrous. I’m not putting the Nets’ eggs into his basket. It doesn’t make sense.
Confidence
With KD and Kyrie, Brooklyn always has a puncher’s chance. I think there are things they can take advantage of, especially with Boston’s frontcourt not being 100%. The gravity of the Nets’ stars could stretch Boston’s defense out too far.
The Nets have nothing to lose in this series, so they’ve got to play like it.
My Prediction
As you read above, I think the Celtics are going to win this series. They have the better roster and coach. Yes, the Nets have their stars, but Boston has been a buzzsaw for the past few months.
Life without Timelord will be difficult, but I think Boston can overcome it. To me, Boston’s gameplans will work more often than Brooklyn’s. So, Celtics in six.
Celtics Win 4-2
#3 Milwaukee Bucks (4) vs #6 Chicago Bulls (0)
The defending champs are right where they were a year ago, the #3 seed in the East. This time, they face another bitter rival in the Bulls. While these two teams haven’t had many postseason battles over the years, they play just an hour away from each other on I-94. They have some history, which could lead to this series getting chippy. I’m looking at you, Grayson Allen.
No matter, here are my thoughts on this series. As a common courtesy, let’s start with the defending champs.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks sleepwalked their way to the 3rd seed in the East. They navigated injuries all year long but seemingly never hit top gear. But, after the All-Star Break, they got pretty close. Facing the league’s hardest schedule, they went 15-6.
And, regular season be damned, we know how dangerous this team can be when they get rolling. And this first-round matchup is a match made in heaven for the Bucks.
The Bucks swept the Bulls in their season series. Two of the games were close, but the final two were blowouts. Milwaukee is the better team, through and through. Their Big three was particularly dominant whenever they were playing Chicago;
Milwaukee’s Big 3 Against Chicago
65.1 points / 24.7 rebounds / 17.8 assists / Holy mother of God
Giannis got to the line more than 11 times per game when he faced Chicago. Jrue Holiday had 27 assists to just three turnovers overall. This trio feasted on the Bulls, a team not well-equipped to stop them.
Bully Ball
The Milwaukee Bucks are a physical, bruising team. They’re going to have their way against Chicago. The Bulls were one of the worst rebounding teams in the league this season, ranking 28th (42.3 per game). While the Bucks usually gun teams down from outside, they should be pounding the ball down low.
Nikola Vucevic is their only decent interior defender. Other than that, they have no size. So, Giannis should continue his dominance. Brook Lopez won’t find much resistance down low, either.
I know it’s not their style, but the Bucks have to pulverize the Bulls down low. That’s how they can win this series easily.
Let Jrue Holiday Feast
The Bucks may have won 71% of their games after the break, but it wasn’t because of their defense. Milwaukee had the 20th-ranked unit on that end after the break.
I don’t think those results will stick in the playoffs. One reason for that is Jrue Holiday, the most disruptive defender in the NBA. He can guard any perimeter player in the league. That should come in handy in this series.
DeMar DeRozan averaged 31.3 points against the Bucks this season. Zach Lavine averaged just under 26 points a night while shooting 41% from 3. The Bucks may be the far superior team, but those guys are the only reason the Bulls have a chance.
So, the Bucks need to let their pit bull do what he does best. If Holiday can control DeRozan and Lavine, this series will be over in a blink.
Confidence
The Bucks should be feeling very confident. They’re more talented and experienced by a mile. Barring a 2020 Mike Budenholzer performance, the Bucks can book their tickets to the second round.
I can’t see a world where the Bucks lose this series. They’re better than Chicago in every conceivable way. Speaking of Chicago, here’s their profile for this series.
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls have had the opposite of a steady season. In February, this team was leading the East. Now, that seems like a distant dream.
Injuries to key players have Chicago entering the postseason with a whimper. They were a paltry 8-15 after the All-Star Break. Like the Bucks, they couldn’t stop anybody, housing the 25th ranked defense over that same time frame.
DeMar DeRozan’s analogy for this team was spot on;
It’s kind of like going through high school, you getting all A’s as a freshman or sophomore. Then junior and senior year, you got AP classes, them s*** is extrememly hard.
Chicago will sorely miss Lonzo Ball in this series. But, even with Ball, I doubt this team could hang with the Bucks. There’s a reason they were swept during the regular season. All things the same, they can’t do much to stop the inevitable.
Dinosaurs
Milwaukee’s biggest flaw is their 3-PT defense. They allow teams to shoot the most threes in the league, which leaves them open to getting run out of the building. In the modern NBA, with so many shooters, this should hurt them more than it does.
The problem for the Bulls is that they don’t shoot threes. They’re dinosaurs, shooting the least amount of threes in the NBA. They’re the only team that doesn’t attempt more than 30 three’s a night. Milwaukee’s biggest flaw becomes nonexistent against this team.
Oof.
Turnovers
Another way the Bulls can make this series slightly more competitive is through turnovers. Turnovers are the best way to kneecap a team. Not only are you taking away their shots, your odds of playing against a non-set defense increase.
In the four matchups between these two teams this season, the Bucks averaged 12.3 turnovers per game. However, the Bucks turned the ball over 15+ times in 23 games this year.
For more than a quarter of the season, the Bucks threw away 15 or more possessions. If the Bulls can do that in this series, their slim chances of winning become slightly less thin.
Oh, who am I kidding? They’re screwed!
Confidence
None.
My Prediction
I think the Bucks are going to sweep this series. The Bulls have no momentum coming into the playoffs, and they’re missing their starting point guard. Meanwhile, the defending champions are coming in hot. This round is nothing but a tune-up for them, one to get them ready for the gauntlet to come.
The Bucks are more talented than Chicago. They house the deeper roster. Chicago is going to get downright embarrassed in this series. So, a sweep is the only option.
Bucks SWEEP
#4 Philadelphia 76ers (4) vs #5 Toronto Raptors (3)
This series has been talked about a lot over the past few days. I would be lying if I said this series wasn’t going to be entertaining, because it will be.
We’ll get to see the Embiid + Harden duo for the first time in the postseason. Harden hasn’t been scoring as a 76er, but he may have to for Philly to win this series. Embiid says that the Raptors play “recklessly,” which is true.
Nick Nurse has a lot of reasons to play “reckless,” one of the reasons being Embiid himself. The Raptors are the best Embiid-stopping team in the league, housing enough length to make any girl jealous. They ended the season strong, finally piecing things together.
On top of that, everybody’s favorite has returned. COVID! This series really has it all!
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers are a weird team to gauge. On the one hand, they have two of the most annoying players in the league sharing the floor. Guarding Harden and Embiid is a mental toll I would not want to partake in. But this team wasn’t exactly dominant after they got Harden.
Yeah, a 14-7 record is good, but at times, they felt sluggish. Harden’s poor shooting nights didn’t go away. Philly struggled to make perimeter shots. Not to be negative, but I’m not optimistic about this team making a deep playoff run. Hell, I have my doubts they can escape this series.
Not having Matisse Thybulle for part of this series will hurt. And, I think Toronto’s length will be a problem. How can the Sixers navigate all those hurdles? Here’s how.
Which James Harden Are We Getting?
Harden as a 76er: 21.0 points / 10.5 assists / 7.1 rebounds / 60% TS
Those are elite numbers from Harden. But, at times, it looked like he shied away from shooting the ball. He had multiple games where he felt disconnected from the offense. While his playmaking has remained elite, which James Harden are we getting?
Philly needs the closest thing to MVP James Harden this postseason. He forced his way out of Brooklyn to be here, but now he has to show that he belongs. Length will follow him throughout this series. He will be pushed, pulled, and harassed for 48 minutes.
This is his chance to show us that he can still score at an elite level. If he can up his scoring, then I love Philly’s chances.
Don’t Turn On The Microwaves
Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are very streaky players. But when they get going, it’s hard to turn them off. Mattisse Thybulle will guard them for part of this series, but can the 76ers handle things when he’s not on the floor?
Can James Harden, Shake Milton, Maxey, and Korkmaz contain two explosive scorers? It’s a tough ask, but since Thybulle isn’t vaccinated, it’s what’s needed.
Fred Vanvleet in Wins: 20.4 ppg / 57% TS
Fred VanVleet in Losses: 20.2 ppg / 53% TS
Gary Trent Jr in Wins: 19.5 ppg / 57% TS
Gary Trent Jr in Losses: 16.3 ppg / 50% TS
Free Throws
I know nobody likes to talk about this, but I have to. Free throws are a big part of Philly’s offense. They were third in free throws per game this season, and they had the leader in free throws. But, in the playoffs, free throws are harder to come by.
Embiid flopping for one game could net him 20 free throws. The next night, however, that total could be 8. That’s why I think both he and Harden have to stop foul-baiting. I know that’s a big ask, but trying to force the action isn’t smart in the playoffs.
Fouls aren’t aplenty like they are in the regular season. The “reckless” Raptors thrive on that more physical style of basketball. My advice? Maybe don’t try and draw fouls if it’s not working.
Confidence
The 76ers can’t afford to take this series lightly. They’re the better team, but this will be a dogfight. To me, James Harden is the x-factor in this series. If he’s aggressive and scoring efficiently, Philly is impossible to stop. Assuming that Toronto’s microwave backcourt doesn’t torch them for the whole series, Philly has to feel confident. They have the upper hand.
Toronto Raptors
After being average for most of the reason, the Raptors hit their stride at the end of the season. They escaped the play-in tournament by going 11-4 to end the year. And, similar to the Heat, I think they’re built for the playoffs.
With all their length, they can defend any team in their path, including these sixers. Philadelphia will find it hard to score against this team, one of the most versatile defenses in the league.
While the Raptors are the underdogs in this series, they should feel like they belong in this series, because they do.
Joel Embiid
29.0 points / 11.3 rebounds / 2.0 stocks / 12.3 FTA / 59% TS
Trying to control Joel Embiid will be the difference in this series. Toronto has the bodies to deal with Embiid. For them, it’s a matter of game planning. Nick Nurse is one of the best coaches in the league, and I’m sure he has some tricks up his sleeve. But, how effective can they be against one of the most dominant forces in the NBA?
Expect the Raptors to try and push Embiid away from the basket. If they let Embiid get the ball on the block, you may as well just put two points on the scoreboard. Another thing you may see the Raptors do is front the post. They could also shade a defender over to Embiid’s side, always making him think a second defender is coming.
Toronto can’t let Joel Embiid dominate them. Their post-double-team rotations will have to be on-point. They’re going to allow open shots at times. They have to make sure the guys taking those open shots are the guys they want to be taking them. Instead of Tyrese Maxey, let Shake Milton shoot the ball all he wants.
They may not be a team better equipped to stop Philly than the Raptors. It’s just a matter of execution at this point.
Stepping Up To The Plate
Toronto’s offense has been questionable all year long. Now in the playoffs, can their streaky scorers find consistency? Toronto is a team filled with question marks. For their sakes, they have to follow through.
Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr are two microwave scorers. Both are capable of scoring in bunches, but they’re also capable of shooting Toronto out of games. They won’t have to deal with Matisse Thybulle for the entire series, which is a sigh of relief. They have to take advantage of those games and get going offensively.
Pascal Siakam ended the season hot, but his track record as the #1 option in the postseason isn’t spectacular. Can Siakam get to the rim consistently and do damage? He’s the x-factor for the Raptors in this series. If he continues his hot play, Toronto’s offense becomes deadlier.
Other guys like Barnes and Anunoby are other potential sparks for Toronto. Barnes is an excellent offensive rebounder and off-ball mover. The 76ers will force him to take jump shots, which is what he may have to do to stay on the floor. Anunoby will be more focused on defense during this series, but if he too can knock down some perimeter shots, that’d be great.
The theme of this series for the Raptors has to be stepping up to the plate. Toronto’s battle isn’t with talent – it’s with big-game ability.
Confidence
Again, Toronto is the underdogs in this series, but I like their chances. They are well-equipped to bother Joel Embiid, and if their offense gets going, they can certainly make this series competitive.
My Prediction
It’s hard to see this series not going seven games. These two teams are evenly matched on both sides of the ball, and I think that this will be a bloodbath.
But star power is king in the playoffs. The 76ers have the two best players in the series. I don’t trust Toronto’s best players down the stretch as much as I do Philly’s.
This should be one of the best first-round series, but I have the 76ers winning in 7 games.
76ers in Seven
Western Conference
The Western Conference was somewhat disappointing this season. Not only did two teams well below 0.500 compete for a playoff spot, things didn’t feel as dominant as usual. Sure, they had the best team in the league, but this was certainly a step back for the West compared to their two-decade superiority over the East.
The postseason is perhaps a chance to remind everyone what a bloodbath this conference really is.
- Phoenix Suns
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Golden State Warriors
- Dallas Mavericks
- Utah Jazz
- Denver Nuggets
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- New Orleans Pelicans
#1 Phoenix Suns (4) vs #8 New Orleans Pelicans (0)
Instead of the Clippers, it’s the upstart Pelicans that get the honor of being thrashed by the Suns. Yay!
Phoenix was the best team in the NBA by a mile. They beat the Pels three out of the four times they faced each other this season. Even if they had lost every time these two teams had played, I wouldn’t care. The Suns are better at everything. Assuming that Bridges and Crowder can shut down McCollum and Ingram, this series should go over smoothly.
The Pelicans stand no chance in this series. Not only do we not get to see Zion in the playoffs, we get to see this crappy organization believe they did something good for once. God help us all.
The one positive from this series is that Willie Green gets to coach against his former team. So, plus one for that? Just get onto the next one.
Suns SWEEP
#2 Memphis Grizzlies (4) vs #7 Minnesota Timberwolves (2)
I’m going with the Scott Servais approach with this series. “Fun differential > run differential.” I think that applies to this series perfectly. It may seem lopsided on paper, but man, it’s going to have some highlights.
The Grizzlies are a machine. Depth is the name of the game for Memphis. Even though Ja Morant missed a quarter of the season, the Grizzlies were better without Morant than with him. Memphis has a roster full of playmakers, some of whom won’t play simply because Taylor Jenkins has too many options.
While Memphis was great without Morant, they have their leader healthy for the postseason. Rims everywhere are trembling.
Minnesota, my dark horse in the West, has fulfilled my hope in them. Their come from behind play-in tournament victory was electric. Minnesota’s home-run hit scorers should make this series fun.
If you like offense, you’ve come to the right place.
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is another team that is so hard to get a read on. Are they really good, or was their regular season a mirage? They looked dominant at times, but there’s a reason nobody has them going all the way. They’re young, can’t shoot, and I don’t love their defense.
Memphis’ defense in Game 1 wasn’t great, and I think that will continue in this series. Yes, they’re fun, but they aren’t invincible. After dropping Game 1, they’ll have to up their level of play to claw back into this series.
Here’s what they can do.
Avoiding Foul Trouble and Winning One-on-One Battles
There were a lot of fouls in game 1 of this series, 56 to be exact. Memphis’ frontcourt could hardly stay on the floor because of that. Jaren Jackson Jr was fabulous down
low but only played 24 minutes due to foul trouble. Steven Adams also dealt with foul trouble and played just 24 minutes.
First and foremost, those two have to stay on the floor to clog the middle. With Jackson not on the floor, the Grizzlies were at the mercy of Karl-Anthony Towns, who feasted all night long. That has to be their #1 priority going into game #2.
On top of that, the Grizzlies’ lack of perimeter defense was on full display. Anthony Edwards and Malik Beasley both went off, as Memphis doesn’t have a lot of options outside of Dillon Brooks to handle them. Here’s how they can solve some of their problems;
- Force the guards into more help (middle of the floor)
- Stay home and contest
- Pray
The third one may be a joke, but I want to see Memphis use the first option more in Game 2. Force Edwards into more help. If the frontcourt can avoid foul trouble, he’ll have to drive into them instead of smaller forwards like Kyle Anderson.
The bottom line is simple; the defense has to be far better for the Grizzlies to win this series. Allowing 130 points is the opposite of a recipe for success.
Confidence
Game 1 was a much-needed wake up call for this team. Let’s see how they respond in game 2 and beyond.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are running high of adrenaline after their come from behind play-in tournament victory. Their offense has been the best in the NBA since the start of the new year, and their defense isn’t that far behind.
Like Memphis, they house some home-run hitters on offense. The likes of Towns, Edwards, Beasley, and Russell can keep them in this series alone. Sure, they don’t have the crazy depth that the Grizzlies have, but they can make this series.
Here’s how.
Controlling The Streakiness
Minnesota’s best players are streaky, but they can take over games. In Game 1, they did just that, torching Minnesota’s defense. They have to do that more if they want to win this series.
Anthony Edwards, Russell, and Beasley have to take smart shots. They can’t chuck up wild threes and ill-advised shots, which could spur a Memphis team that loves to run (more on that later). Karl-Anthony Towns is a master of creating mismatches. If he can continue to draw fouls on JJJ, he’ll have barbeque chicken in front of him for most of this series.
Minnesota doesn’t have insane depth like the Grizzlies do. So, they need their stars to play like their namesake. They did it in Game 1, but now it’s time to do that for an entire series.
Keep Them In Front Of You
Grizzlies PTS off Turnovers: 18.3 (4th)
Grizzlies 2nd Chance Points: 18.7 (1st)
Grizzlies Fastbreak Points: 17.7 (1st)
Grizzlies Points in the Paint 57.6 (1st)
That’s a lot of things to handle. Memphis is great at forcing turnovers, which leads to easy points on the run. Minnesota got beat in transition a few times, but they didn’t turn the ball over a lot in Game 1. They had 11 turnovers in the second quarter alone, but they had just six in every other quarter. Not turning the ball over is key.
Minnesota shoots a lot of threes, so they have to make sure they get back on defense. Boxing out will also be key in this series. Memphis had just 14 second-chance points and eight offensive rebounds in Game 1. That’s because their frontcourt hardly played due to foul trouble. If that happens again, that’s another box ticked off for the T-Wolves.
Staying strong down low will be tough. Morant got downhill a lot, but he wasn’t able to convert a lot. Towns avoided foul trouble, picking up just three fouls all night long. Trying to contain the explosive Morant is so tough to do, but I think Minnesota did about as good of a job as they’re capable of doing.
Interesting to see what else the T-Wolves do to try and contain all of the little things that Memphis does so well.
Confidence
Just ask Patrick Beverley.
My Prediction
While I love my Timberwolves, I think the Grizzlies are the better team. They have the advantage in the depth column, and I think that is such a huge factor, especially in the playoffs. Minnesota is too streaky to beat the Grizzlies, who are the better overall team.
This series will be fun, but I think the Grizzlies have this series in six games.
Grizzlies in Six
#3 Golden State Warriors (4) vs #6 Denver Nuggets (2)
The Injury Bowl: Playoffs Edition
Injuries have defined both of these teams in 2022. The Warriors have been injury-riddled all year long. Luckily for them, both Steph Curry and Draymond Green are ready to go for this series. Denver doesn’t have the same luck.
Sure, they have Nikola Jokic. But, as per usual, Jokic doesn’t have his main sidekicks. Murray and MPJ are unlikely to play in the postseason, which is a big blow for the Nuggets. However, I’m still optimistic about this series being highly competitive.
From the great coaching to the offensive juggernauts on display, hold on to your hats. This should be fun.
Golden State Warriors
After a two-year break, the Warriors are back. And worse, they’re fully healthy for the playoffs. Draymond Green once again captains a stout defense. Stephen Curry, shooting slump be damned, is still one of the greatest offensive magnets in the NBA.
Golden State can do it all. Like I said, they’re back. Damn it.
Stopping The Joker
If the Warriors can slow down the Joker, this series will be over before you know it. Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will most likely guard the reigning MVP in one-on-one situations. One thing I will be looking for is how the Warriors play Jokic.
Double-teaming him seems futile, as he can make any pass he needs to to find the open shot. But, an interesting thing with Jokic is that the more he scores, the less successful the Nuggets are. Denver is less effective with Jokic the scorer than Jokic the passer.
So, you could see the Warriors be ok with letting Jokic try and beat them one-on-one. That is a better option than letting him pick you apart as you try and double him. To me, I think something in between is the best option.
At times, you have to send an extra defender and make another Nugget beat you. But, if Denver is making their outside shots, letting Jokic feast down low is the better option.
Confidence
I’m not going to talk about the Warriors’ offense because I don’t think that Denver can stop them. Jokic defense is the only thing that the Warriors have to really focus on to win this series. Other than that, I think they’re better than the Nuggets in most ways.
So, the Warriors are confident. Very confident.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are a one-man show. Nikola Jokic orchestrates the show for this team, and everybody else just follows his lead. While it seems like this team is always overperforming, if Jokic is on the floor, they always have a chance.
This series will be an uphill battle for Denver. Unlike last year, they won’t have an easy first-round opponent like Portland. This time, they’ll face a former dynasty. Here’s how they can dethrone them.
Play Off Of Jokic
The Warriors are more than likely to throw a lot of bodies at Jokic. We know that he can get the ball to his open teammates whenever he needs to. But, if his teammates can’t convert, then the Warriors will win easily.
Morris, Barton, Gordon, Green, and others will get a lot of open threes and driving opportunities. Denver has to torch the Warriors whenever they send more help at the Joker. If not, then they can save themselves a seat on the coach
Steph Curry Pest Control
I’m going to be honest, I don’t know how the Nuggets are going to stop Steph Curry. Nikola Jokic isn’t quick enough to step up of those handoff actions. I don’t like Aaron Gordon’s chances on the perimeter, either.
And, if the Nuggets become obsessed with stopping Curry, then Golden State’s whole offense opens up. Expect a big series from Curry because the Nuggets have no chance of stopping him.
Confidence
The Nuggets have Jokic, which means they likely won’t get swept, but I think that they’re facing an uphill battle. Without Jamal Murray and MPJ, they don’t have the star power to handle everything that the Warriors can throw at them.
My Prediction
As much as I respect Nikola Jokic’s greatness, I can’t envision them winning this series. The Warriors are more talented, experienced, and have the defensive advantage. Denver doesn’t have any plausible way to stop Steph Curry other than simply praying that he misses.
This series will feature a lot of great players, but I think the Warriors will win in six.
Warriors in Six
#4 Dallas Mavericks (3) vs #5 Utah Jazz (4)
This series was ruined before it started. Jason Kidd playing Luka Doncic in a meaningless game was already dumb, but the basketball gods really wanted to punish Caillou. Doncic injured his calf in said meaningless game and is going to miss game 1 of this series, and perhaps even more than that. Fun.
On the flip side, you have my favorite team, the Utah Jazz. Just kidding, I despise this team. They still don’t have any perimeter defenders, and they also don’t try and diversify their offensive game plan of just shooting 40 threes a game.
This series went from being one of the better ones in the first round to one where I’m not so sure I’m going to enjoy it at times.
Dallas Mavericks
Just survive until Luka comes back. It’s as simple as that. Dallas did that in Game 1 but didn’t have the steam to finish things off. They’ll likely dominate this series once Luka returns.
Utah Jazz
Don’t lose a series where Luka Doncic misses a good chunk of it. I have the Jazz winning this series, but they barely beat Dallas earlier today. It’s a toss-up, but assuming Doncic don’t miss the entire series, the Mavericks have this in the bag, so to speak.
Mavs in Seven
My Second-Round Bracket
Phoenix vs Dallas
Memphis vs Golden State
Miami vs Philadelphia
Boston vs MIlwaukee
Let’s see how correct I am in making my first-round predictions.
What Are Your Thoughts On My Predictions? Leave A Comment Down Below!
Follow My Instagram & Facebook To Never Miss A Post: @hoopnotions
3 thoughts on “Predicting The First Round of the NBA Playoffs!”
Comments are closed.