More Interesting Things From Around The Association
Around the association, there are plenty of storylines to keep track of as the league enters postseason mode. Here’s some things I’ve noticed
We’re entering the final stages of the regular season. We know everything we need to know about most teams. There’s no room left for improvement (unless someone wants Russell Westbrook). Around the association, it’s clear what (almost) every team is trying to do. Amidst all of that, there are plenty of compelling developments.
From Damian Lillard’s individual brilliance to Washington’s potent offense, here’s everything I’ve noticed over the past few days.
Here Come The Miami Heat
For months, the Miami Heat were stuck in the mud. Injuries and a lack of depth had them in the middle of a mediocre Eastern Conference. Entering the new year, the Heat were 19-18. When I did my new year’s power rankings, I said the following;
“But, as of right now, another deep playoff run seems unlikely.” (Me on January 1st)
Alas, I was wrong. The Miami Heat weren’t dead. Not yet, at least. Despite not making any upgrades at the deadline, Miami has clawed its way back into the playoff picture in the East. It hasn’t been pretty by any means. Miami has had the second-best defense since January 1st, but their offensive ineptitude hasn’t ceased.
Even when healthy, Miami struggles to score the ball. The lack of spacing on the floor is glaring. It’s a cluttered, sluggish mess. The Heat have to manipulate slivers with cuts, screens, and passes, prying narrow corridors. They pass and move through those corridors until they widen enough for someone to shoot.
Here’s the silver lining. When Butler, Adebayo, and Herro share the floor, Miami has a 117.7 offensive rating. Miami outscores opponents by 12.3 points per 100 possessions when those three are out there. Is that, combined with their stout defense, enough to win a playoff series? Perhaps.
Will Kevin Love solve Miami’s problems? Heck no. But Miami’s defense will take them anywhere. They have struck the impossible balance of forcing turnovers without fouling. Over their past fifteen contests, the Heat have forced the fifth most turnovers in the NBA (239) while fouling teams just 283 times in that span, which is 23rd in the association.
On paper, the Heat look old, vulnerable, and feeble. And those things may still be accurate. Against top ten defensive teams this season, the Heat manage a paltry 110.0 offensive rating, two points below the league average. It’s not like Miami is this world-beating team to be reckoned with.
I can see a world where this team exits the floor with a soft thud or makes another surprising run, making their opponents lives a living hell in the process.
Immanuel Quickley Has Been (Quietly) Great
The discourse on small guards has been up and down in recent years. Recently, we’ve seen talented youngsters like Bones Hyland and Tyrese Maxey lose a lot of their value because of how defenses picked on them. Their teams couldn’t survive with them on the floor because they had that much of a target on their backs.
One would assume a similar thing would happen with third-year Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley. If Cam Reddish couldn’t crack this rotation, how is Quickley doing? Well, here are his numbers since December 20th;
15.8 points ~ 4.0 rebounds ~ 3.6 assists ~ 48% FG ~ 39% 3-PT (5.8 3-PTA) ~ 61% TS
This season, with Quickley on the floor, the Knicks have been outscoring opponents by 6.3 points per 100 possessions. That includes a defense that ranks in the 89th percentile of the league. When IQ heads to the bench, the Knicks get outscored by 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Their defense, surprisingly, plummets to rank in the 7th percentile of the NBA.
That 8.9 on/off net rating swing is the highest on the team. Higher than Brunson, Randle, and Barrett. Quickley has turned into a sixth starter who shape-shifts between roles. On units with only one or two starters, IQ orchestrates more. In starter-heavy groups, Quickley flits around as an opportunistic spot-up scorer — pushing the pace, jacking catch-and-shoot 3s, knifing into the paint for floaters, and kick outs when defenders run him off the arc. Head coach Tom Thibodeau has played Quickley over Barrett some in crunch time. His fit with Jalen Brunson has been incredibly effective. Logic says that two 6’2″ guards shouldn’t be sharing the court, but here we are.
Quickley has always been a positive presence for the Knicks. They’re better on the floor with him than without him. That’s why it was surprising to see Quickley’s name thrown out in trade deadline rumors at one point. New York needs him — or someone of his talent — to be successful.
The former Kentucky Wildcat could be a restricted free agent in 2024. If I were the Knicks, I would give him an extension long before some other teams throw him contract offers. You wouldn’t think it, but the Knicks would not be the same team without Quickley’s jittery offensive goodness.
Washington’s Elite(?) Defense
Washington’s relentless pursuit of mediocrity has made them unwatchable in my eyes. It’s hard to get behind them when you know that, without fail, 35-42 wins is the result. I could go on for days about how paying Bradley Beal that supermax extension was stupid or how they need to do this, that, or the other. I now realize that Play-In Tommy Shepard and this organization are content with how things have been going.
This season has been no different. Washington has dealt with injuries, but they are the ninth seed in the East despite being two games under 0.500. On the surface, the Wizards appear to be the same old Wizards. But, as of late, Washington has sneakily been awesome.
(I’m just as surprised as you are)
Since December 20th, the Wizards have been 17-10. In that time, they have the league’s eighth-best offense and the sixth-best net rating. Not exactly what you would expect from the living embodiment of mediocrity, but here we are.
I’m not that surprised that the Wizards have been scoring the ball well. Any team with Bradley Beal, Porzingis, and Kyle Kuzma should be able to score. That may seem like a weird combination but think about it. While Beal has taken a slight step back in usage this season, he’s averaging 23 points a night on a career-best 61% TS. I don’t think Kristaps Porzingis has missed a 3-pointer all year. And Kyle Kuzma — when he gets going — is dangerously good.
What I’ve been surprised about is Washington’s defense. I know that Gafford, Delon Wright, and Deni “Turbo” Avdija are good defenders…but elite defense? Yeah, I don’t know about that, pal. Well, wouldn’t you know it — the Wizards have had the second-best halfcourt defense in the league since December 20th.
The only team above them is the Grizzlies, which sounds much more believable than Washington holding the second spot. Now, you could say that the Wizards have been getting lucky. Maybe teams are shooting ice-cold against them? You would be wrong if you made that assessment.
In this stretch, the Wizards have allowed the fourth lowest efG% in the league (52.9%). That’s while allowing teams to shoot 70% at the rim. Anyway, their loc eFG% is also fourth best, at 54.4%. Loc eFG% is a stat that examines a team’s defensive shot profile efficiency. If the team’s opponents shot league average from every zone on the floor, what would their eFG% be?
Washington’s stout, relentless perimeter defense allows them to stay in games. Not that that matters, though. As much as I would love to root for this team, I just can’t do it. They’re too frustrating and stupid. But they can take solace that they’re playing amazing defense right now.
Damian Lillard is Playing the Best Basketball of his Career
When I get older, I will tell people that I watched Damian Lillard play basketball. He’s the most meaningful player in franchise history (and the best). Throughout his career, Dame has had his ups and downs. That 2018 playoff series against the Pelicans still gives me PTSD (damn you, Stotts). But I’ve also seen Lillard go on heaters that make active volcanoes quiver in their boots.
This season, however, has felt different. The surface numbers don’t look that far apart from Lillard’s 2020 campaign, his best season to date. It’s hard to explain, but you’ll have to trust me. The dude has never been better. Even though the team around him is in flux and is average just about every way you slice it, Lillard has had to deal with a lot more compared to previous seasons.
A lot has changed since that 2020 season. He has a new coach and a new GM. This team’s roster is younger than usual and has gone through lots of injuries. But, through it all, Lillard’s play has been a constant: the ultimate equalizer to Portland’s mediocrity.
Or, as he so eloquently put it a few nights ago;
31.4 points ~ 7.3 assists ~ 46.7% FG ~ 65% TS ~ 57% efG ~ 8.3 OBPM
(Bold indicates career-highs. Yes, Damian Lillard is having the most efficient season of his career)
Lillard isn’t as efficient from deep as he was in 2020, but his finishing has been noticeably better. The number of mystifying, hanging, acrobatic finishes I’ve seen Dame make this year seems more than in previous ones. Dame is making an absurd 58.4% of his 2-pointers, by far a career-best.
Even after that abdominal issue, Lillard has remained as potent as ever. He started the year somewhat slow, but since January 1st, he’s been on a heater. This stretch included the most efficient 60-point game in NBA history against the Jazz. Dame has also been moving up the all-time scoring charts — currently sitting at 64th.
Over his last 20 contests, Lillard has scored 741 points. The next closest player is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander….with 617. Dame has been averaging better than 37 points per game during this stretch while attempting 11.3 free throws a night. Hitting 94.2% of your free throws during this time isn’t too shabby, either.
I have watched a lot of Damian Lillard, but this is the best I’ve ever seen him play. He’s mastered playing in a crowd. He used to panic and force shots or throw an errant pass. Now, he’s dissecting defenses by patiently finding holes to burst through or make the right pass. It’s as effortless as it’s ever been.
Even though the Blazers are two games under 0.500 entering the All-Star break with a disjointed, weird roster, Lillard has continued to fight. Because that’s what he’s always done. And we wouldn’t expect anything else.
What do you think about my observations? Leave a comment down below!
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