Nikola Jokic Might be the Best Player in the NBA

The NBA has never been filled with more talented players. It’s hard to remember if the league ever had this much all-time talent at once. Luka Doncic put up the first 60-20-10 game in league history on Tuesday. Giannis Antetokounmpo, another international player, is the most unique force the game has ever seen. The list goes on and on and on and on. Until we get to Nikola Jokic.

Tucked away in the rocky mountains, there he is. Everybody knows Nikola Jokic is very good. You don’t win back-to-back MVPs by accident. But, Jokic is also the most underrated player in the league. Nobody talks about how good he is now and how good he is in the context of some of the greatest players of all time.

In a league dominated by perimeter-centric players who want to score at will, Jokic is an outlier. A relic of a bygone era. He’s not athletic, appears to be clumsy, and yet, he’s one of the most unstoppable players in the league. This season, Jokic has taken his dominance to a new level, one that’s impossible to ignore anymore.

Let’s talk about the Joker.

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The Eye-Test

Whenever you’re talking about a great player, the first thing you should do is watch them play. Watch a full game, not just the highlights. Anybody can look good with their highlights. But, not everyone can look good in totality. Watching Nikola Jokic play is a treat that everybody should indulge in once in a while.

Jokic can play so many different styles depending on the night. If a team decides to let him score, he can do that. Not many guys can match his physicality in the post. If a team decides to double team and swarm him, his eyes light up. It’s an easy opportunity to find open shooters and cutters.

Luka Doncic’s bad nights are ugly. It’s a rough shooting performance with some turnovers and bad body language to mix. Doncic, like all players with high usage rates, are prone to ugly games. It’s what happens when you have the ball that much.

The Joker doesn’t have this problem. Even on his “down” nights, he can still effect the game in so many ways with his screening, post-ups, and vision. It’s damn near impossible for Jokic to have a negative effect on Denver. Meanwhile, you can’t say the same thing about bad nights from other stars.

Last night, against the Kings, Jokic had 40 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists. Here were some of my favorite plays;

And, beyond the numbers, it’s fun to watch Jokic play. With how much space the modern game is played with, Jokic is unstoppable. We’ve seen other great passing bigs like Pao Gasol or Bill Walton, but they never had the space that Jokic does currently. He can find any passing angle he wants to. And, since his teammates always know that he’s looking for them, they cut at will. It’s a perfect harmony.

Yes, there are more flashy players in the NBA. But, it’s hard to find a more effective player than Nikola Jokic, who’s usage rate is somehow 30%.

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Unprecedented Statistical Dominance

Nikola Jokic is the king of advanced metrics. He seemingly leads every single one imaginable. Currently, he’s leading the league in PER (32.3), offensive win shares (5.2), win shares per 48 (.305), defensive box plus/minus (3.8), and box plus/minus (12.2).

Jokic’s .305 win shares per 48 are better than his previous two MVP seasons. It also means that he’s more than 3x more valuable than the average NBA player in this metric (the average is 0.1). Jokic’s 0.305 win shares per 48 is currently on pace to be the 11th-best season in league history. So, you know, he’s been pretty damn good this season.

Over the last three seasons, Jokic has averaged 26.6 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 8.3 assists. No other player in NBA history has ever had those numbers, much less for three seasons. Oscar Robertson’s 1961-62 season comes close, but that’s about it.

What Jokic has been doing has never been done before. Not only is he rebounding like Moses Malone and dishing out assists like Steve Nash, it’s Jokic’s efficiency that’s so mind-boggling. Last season, Jokic broke the record for PER in a single season. This season, he’s on pace to have the second-best PER season ever.

On top of that, his 68.8% true shooting is utterly ridiculous. If Jokic keeps this pace, it will be the 17th-highest true shooting percentage in a single season in league history. But everybody in front of him never even approached 26 points per game.

All of this is so say that the Joker is having one of the best statistical peaks in league history. That, combined with his playstyle, have led me to a realization.

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Bird Man

Larry Bird is one of the coolest players in the NBA. I don’t just mean that because of his legendary trash-talking moments or his clutch antics. It was the way Bird played that was so aesthetically pleasing. Bird only had one season where his usage rate topped 30%. Similar to Jokic, he didn’t need to have the ball to make an impact.

While we often think of Bird’s rival, Magic Johnson, as this passing wizard, but so was Bird. Bird was one of the best passers of his era, able to find creative angles for guys like McHale and Parish down low. For his career, Bird averaged 24.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. The only other player in NBA history to average 20+ points, 10+ rebounds, and 5+ assists for their career is Jokic. The two are more similar than you’d think.

Both of them are such willing passers, guys who are always looking to set up their teammates. And, in turn, their teammates are always trying to get open. They know they’re going to get rewarded if they get open. Bird is the superior shooter, but Jokic is probably the better passer and post player.

Larry Bird is the best statistical and playstyle comparison to Jokic. I know it’s crazy to compare a top-ten player of all time to a player still playing right now, but that’s where we’re at. Jokic is doing stuff that only Bird has done in the past, but even then, what Jokic is doing right now pales in comparison to Bird.

Remember the three year run Jokic is on? 26.6 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 8.3 assists over the last three seasons? Well, here’s Larry Bird’s five year peak from 1983-1988 where he won 3 MVPs and a couple championships;

Larry Bird from 1983-84 to 1987-88

27.3 points ~ 9.8 rebounds ~ 6.8 assists ~ 1.8 steals ~ 51% FG ~ 40% 3-PT ~ 89.9% FT

Enough said.

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So, Is Nikola Jokic The Best Player in the League?

I made a pretty bold claim at the start of this piece. Most people wouldn’t think of Jokic as one of the best players in the league. It’s hard to blame those people. Again, it’s hard to think of a time when the league had this much superstar talent at once.

But is Nikola Jokic the best player in the league? Probably not. I would still take Giannis’s two-way brilliance or Curry’s off-ball wizardry and shooting over Jokic. A better way to describe Jokic is the most valuable player in the league. 

I know I’m being captain obvious when I say that the Nuggets would be nowhere near as good as they are without Jokic. Their movement, cut-centric offense would grind to a halt. There’s nobody on Jokic’s level passing-wise. Guys like Aaron Gordon or Jamal Murray would find it a lot harder to operate.

There’s a reason Denver’s offense is a staggering 19.1 points per 100 possessions better when Jokic is on the floor. And Denver’s defense is 7.6 points better, too. In total, the Nuggets have a 26.8 net rating difference from when Jokic is on the floor compared to when he’s not. That’s unreal value, one that isn’t being touched by anyone else in the league.

The most underrated player in the league may suffer from voter fatigue. We haven’t seen a player win three straight MVPs since Larry Bird in the 80s. Will the voters be able to see just how great of a player Nikola Jokic is? I hope so because we’re witnessing history in the making, any way you slice it.

In the meantime, let’s do our best to enjoy the man, shall we?

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