The Luka Doncic Dilemma
Luka Doncic is on a path to becoming one of the greatest players in league history. So, why are the Mavericks struggling to build around him?
At 23 years old, Luka Doncic is one of the best players in the world. There’s a reason Gregg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches to have ever lived, called him a “beautiful basketball player.” And that’s the best way to describe Luka Doncic. Beautiful.
Through four and a half mystifying seasons, Doncic has done everything. From All-Star and All-NBA appearances to some of the best postseason heroics we’ve seen since MJ, we’re watching an all-time great blossom in front of our eyes. The somewhat out-of-shape, sweet tea-drinking, hookah-smoking forward is on a path few have walked before. He’s going to dominate the league for the next decade and beyond.
And yet, something seems off. Even though Luka is one of the best floor raisers in the game, his Mavs have yet to dominate the rest of the league. Sure, Dallas has made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons and will do so again this year, but, despite having a golden ticket player in Doncic, Dallas’ efforts to surround him with talent have been mixed, to say the least.
Why is that? It should be easier to build around players like Doncic, right? Or is he the victim of the Doncic Dilemma?*
*(Note: I should probably get that trademarked, huh?)*
The Normal Rebuilding Cycle
Every NBA team lucky enough to have a superstar is always on the clock. As soon as a team gets its hands on one of the best players in the league, they have one job to do. Win a championship. In the age of player empowerment, not doing enough to put talent around your star player and win could lead to an ugly breakup.
The NBA has become an arms race. Superstars move around the league like pieces on a chessboard. If you’re not winning, you could have to make the unenviable decision of trading away one of the top players in the game.
For decades, the NBA was a much simpler place. If you got your hands on a Jordan or a Bird or a Magic, there wasn’t much threat of them leaving. This was when front offices had so much more power than the players. Front offices had the luxury of time, something that front offices today don’t have.
The “Normal Rebuilding Cycle.”
What is that? Well, it’s what I’m calling the normal pattern of an NBA team. After one crappy, ugly, losing-filled season, a franchise is gifted with a top draft pick (unless they’re Ted Stepien). With that pick, assuming they don’t mess that up, they get a superstar-level player. And, after getting that superstar, that team and player become conjoined at the hip.
As the player gets better, so does the team. And, as the team gets better, the players around that superstar get better, too. Let’s take Michael Jordan for example. His career follows the “Normal Rebuilding Cycle” almost to a T.
When the Bulls drafted Jordan in 1984, they were terrible. He was dragging the likes of Orlando Woolridge and Dave Corzine. After a few years, the team started to improve. Jordan ascended to being the best player in the league, and he got more help along the way, too. Pippen and Grant came in ’87. Cartwright in ’88. Later on, guys like Ron Harper, Toni Kukoc, and Dennis Rodman were added, too.
And there are obviously exceptions to this rule. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson came into winning situations and instantly made their teams title contenders. Kawhi Leonard got drafted by a Spurs team that made back-to-back Finals appearances in his first two seasons. The cycle doesn’t apply to these players. They were blessed with extremely fortunate situations.
Doncic is another player who balks at this cycle, but not in the way you think. You see, even though Dallas got their hands on one of the best players in the league, there was one small problem. Luka Doncic got too good too fast.
Driving Blind
As an NBA GM or front office member, preparation is everything. You have to be able to think of your feet. Whether it be jumping on an opportunity to acquire a player or thinking about potential draft candidates, NBA front offices have to be able to see the big picture. They’re thinking months in advance, not about some December road loss.
When the Mavericks acquired wonder boy on draft night, they were thinking of the future. Could Dennis Smith Jr. fit with Luka Doncic? That was the big question at the time, and it became a resounding no. But the Mavericks were taking things slow, just like any team who just drafted a player with a high draft pick.
Donn Nelson and the front office wanted to see what they had in Doncic. Was the 19-year-old European stud going to translate in the NBA? And if so, they would have to start formulating their vision around him. What pieces would fit next to Luka? Who were potential targets down the road?
And then, a 19-year-old Luka Doncic decided to do this as a rookie, just for fun;
21.2 points ~ 7.8 rebounds ~ 6.0 assists ~ NBA Rookie of the Year
Luka was not a fan of the whole taking it slow thing. Instead, he put up rookie numbers that rivaled a kid from Akron, Ohio (more on him later). So, now, the Mavericks kind of got pushed into a corner. They just figured out they had a winning lottery ticket. Now, it was time to cash in. Dallas wanted to find Luka a viable co-star immediately. No offense to Harrison Barnes, but he wasn’t going to cut it.
So, Donn Nelson made a huge move in January of Luka’s rookie season;
In a move that has now turned out to be a massive failure, Dallas swung a deal for Kristaps Porzingis. They wanted to give Luka help as soon as possible. In doing so, they handicapped themselves for years to come by dealing away two future first-round picks. One of those picks is a top-ten protected pick from 2023-2025, meaning Dallas can’t touch the thing until at least the 2026 season. It’s an asset the Mavericks can’t use to make their team better in the present.
Everybody viewed the move as a success for Dallas at the time. But, this move wouldn’t have happened if Doncic hadn’t shown his superstar prowess so early on. I’m obviously not blaming him, but this rash, ill-thought out move doesn’t happen unless you think you’ve got something special on your hands.
Dallas wasn’t wrong about Luka, but they were wrong about Porzingis. They did manage to turn KP into Spencer Dinwiddie a few years later, but that trade undoubtedly set them back. So did trading Seth Curry for Josh Richardson straight up.
Instead of thinking about the long game, Dallas got caught up with the prize in front of them. They were driving blind, so to speak, not really thinking about where they were going. And, in doing so, they find themselves in an unfortunate comparison to another generational superstar who couldn’t get enough help around him.
The (first stint) Lebron/Luka Convergence
Lebron James’ first stint in Cleveland was both mesmerizing and tragic. On the one hand, we watched as the high school kid dubbed the “Chosen One” became the best player in the league. We also watched as Cleveland failed to surround him with any talent. Even Luka has had better teammates than Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel “Boobie” Gibson.
James dragged Cleveland to the Finals in 2007, but left when he realized that he was wasting his time. He couldn’t win that that poor supporting cast. When he rejoined the Cavs in 2014 and eventually won a title in 2016, James’ supporting cast was eons better.
Now, Luka’s front office isn’t nearly as incompetent as Lebron’s was. The Mavericks have tried to swing moves for guys like Porzingis and Dinwiddie and now Christian Wood (who has been great). They’ve at least tried a lot of different things. With Lebron, it was always ill-fated attempts, almost like they weren’t trying.
Watching this Mavericks team is the same as those Cavs teams, however. Luka has the ball in his hands for nearly the entire game. His usage rate is through the roof (42.8, according to Cleaning the Glass), and he has to do everything for Dallas to succeed.
To win, Doncic’s teammates have to be passable at best. There aren’t nights where Luka can relax and play for 30 minutes. This season, in wins, Luka is shooting 54.3% from the field. In losses, that number plummets to 44.6%. When Doncic has an off night, the Mavericks lose. It’s as simple as that.
And you’re already seeing Doncic tire because of this. Even Lebron James, one of the most gifted athletes ever and somebody who takes much better care of his body, got tired at the end of his first Cleveland stint. Here’s a look at 2022-23 Doncic and 2009-10 Lebron by halves. Notice anything?
| 2022-23 Luka Doncic by half | 2009-10 Lebron James by half |
| 1st Half: 18.1 points | 1st Half: 14.5 points |
| 2nd Half: 15.4 points | 2nd Half: 14.9 points |
| 1st Half: 52/40/73 splits | 1st Half: 55/36/76 splits |
| 2nd half: 49/31/75 splits | 2nd Half: 47/32/77 splits |
Throughout a season, it takes a toll on you to drag your team like this. It’s now how basketball is meant to be played. This season will be no different for Luka, who will feel gassed before the most meaningful games even begin. Those numbers are proof of that. Doncic’s legs go out on him in the second half of games.
And while Doncic is an elite floor raiser, he isn’t good enough to take Dallas to the Finals. The league is too good now for that to happen. So, with the way things are going, one has to wonder, will Doncic leave like Lebron did?
It’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
The Next Steps
The Mavericks are lucky that Luka Doncic is under contract until his age-27 season. This gives them some time to make up for lost time. There shouldn’t be a world where Doncic has to do this much every season. Nico Harrison and Dallas’ front office needs to improve this roster.
Guys like Christian Wood, Dinwiddie, and Josh Green are good starts. Everybody else is replaceable to me. Dallas has plenty of big contracts that they can get off the books. They need better wings, more perimeter defense, and more consistent shooting.
Clearing cap space to swing big free-agent signings is another option. Dallas is one of the bigger markets in the NBA, and playing with Doncic is something other role players want to do. Will other star players want to play with Doncic? Are they willing to play alongside somebody who is (probably) unwilling to give up the ball? Maybe not.
Given their limited resources, Dallas will have to be smart. They can’t afford to have big whiffs as they’ve had with Brunson and Porzingis. Their mid to late first-round picks have to work. Trades at the deadline have to be calculated.
Otherwise, how much longer can Doncic take this? His body language during some games is frightening if you’re a Mavericks fan. Those exasperated looks and big arm swings aren’t exactly encouraging.
As one of the best players of our generation, Doncic will take any team he’s on somewhere. It’s up to Dallas’ front office to make sure that place isn’t mediocrity.
Will Dallas Ever Build a Good Team Around Doncic? Leave a Comment Down Below!
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